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Lundberg FE, Ekman S, Johansson ALV, Engholm G, Birgisson H, Ólafsdóttir EJ, Mørch LS, Johannesen TB, Andersson TML, Pettersson D, Seppä K, Virtanen A, Lambe M, Lambert PC. Trends in lung cancer survival in the Nordic countries 1990-2016: The NORDCAN survival studies. Lung Cancer 2024; 192:107826. [PMID: 38795460 DOI: 10.1016/j.lungcan.2024.107826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2024] [Revised: 04/24/2024] [Accepted: 05/14/2024] [Indexed: 05/28/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to evaluate if the previously reported improvements in lung cancer survival were consistent across age at diagnosis and by lung cancer subtypes. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data on lung cancers diagnosed between 1990 and 2016 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden were obtained from the NORDCAN database. Flexible parametric models were used to estimate age-standardized and age-specific relative survival by sex, as well as reference-adjusted crude probabilities of death and life-years lost. Age-standardised survival was also estimated by the three major subtypes; adenocarcincoma, squamous cell and small-cell carcinoma. RESULTS Both 1- and 5-year relative survival improved continuously in all countries. The pattern of improvement was similar across age groups and by subtype. The largest improvements in survival were seen in Denmark, while improvements were comparatively smaller in Finland. In the most recent period, age-standardised estimates of 5-year relative survival ranged from 13% to 26% and the 5-year crude probability of death due to lung cancer ranged from 73% to 85%. Across all Nordic countries, survival decreased with age, and was lower in men and for small-cell carcinoma. CONCLUSION Lung cancer survival has improved substantially since 1990, in both women and men and across age. The improvements were seen in all major subtypes. However, lung cancer survival remains poor, with three out of four patients dying from their lung cancer within five years of diagnosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frida E Lundberg
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Oncology-Pathology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Simon Ekman
- Department of Oncology-Pathology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Medical Unit Head-Neck-Lung-Skin Cancer, Theme Cancer, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Anna L V Johansson
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway.
| | - Gerda Engholm
- Danish Cancer Institute, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark.
| | | | | | - Lina Steinrud Mørch
- Danish Cancer Institute, Cancer Surveillance and Pharmacoepidemiology, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark.
| | | | - Therese M-L Andersson
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - David Pettersson
- Swedish Cancer Registry, National Board of Health and Welfare, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Karri Seppä
- Finnish Cancer Registry, Helsinki, Finland; Faculty of Social Sciences, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland.
| | - Anni Virtanen
- Department of Pathology, University of Helsinki, HUS Diagnostic Center, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland.
| | - Mats Lambe
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Regional Cancer Centre Uppsala Central Sweden, Uppsala, Sweden.
| | - Paul C Lambert
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
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Tiruye T, Roder D, FitzGerald LM, O'Callaghan M, Moretti K, Beckmann K. Utility of prescription-based comorbidity indices for predicting mortality among Australian men with prostate cancer. Cancer Epidemiol 2024; 88:102516. [PMID: 38141473 DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2023.102516] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2023] [Revised: 12/12/2023] [Accepted: 12/15/2023] [Indexed: 12/25/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Drug prescription registries has become an alternative data source to hospital admission databases for measuring comorbidities. However, the predictive validity of prescription-based comorbidity measures varies based on the population under investigation and outcome of interest. We aimed to determine which prescription-based index of comorbidity has most utility in Australian men with prostate cancer. METHODS We studied 25,414 South Australian men diagnosed with prostate cancer between 2003 and 2019 from state-wide administrative linked datasets. The Rx-Risk index, Chronic Disease Score (CDS), Drug Comorbidity Index (DCI) and Pharmaceutical Prescribing Profile (P3) with one year lookback period from prostate cancer diagnosis were evaluated. The predictive ability of each index to determine all-cause deaths within two and five years of prostate cancer diagnosis was compared using the c-statistic from flexible parametric survival models, adjusting for age, socioeconomic status and year of prostate cancer diagnosis. RESULTS The Rx-Risk index performed better in predicting two-year (c-statistic = 0.818) and five-year (c-statistic = 0.784) all-cause mortality than P3, CDS and DCI. Including comorbidity measures as continuous scores resulted in a better performance than including them as categories. Grouping scores into four categories (≤0, >0 - ≤1, >1 - ≤2, and >2) resulted in better performance and calibration than using fewer categories. CONCLUSION Rx-Risk was validated in Australia and reflects Australian prescribing patterns. It showed better predictive performance for mortality in our study, with a modest improvement over P3, CDS and DCI. For research with prostate cancer populations, we recommend the use of drug-based comorbidity indices that have been validated in a similar population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tenaw Tiruye
- Cancer Epidemiology and Population Health Research Group, Allied Health and Human Performance, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia; School of Public Health, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia.
| | - David Roder
- Cancer Epidemiology and Population Health Research Group, Allied Health and Human Performance, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Liesel M FitzGerald
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Michael O'Callaghan
- Urology Unit, Flinders Medical Centre, Bedford Park, Australia; South Australian Prostate Cancer Clinical Outcomes Collaborative, Adelaide, Australia; Flinders Health and Medical Research Institute, Flinders University, Bedford Park, Australia; Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Kim Moretti
- Cancer Epidemiology and Population Health Research Group, Allied Health and Human Performance, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia; South Australian Prostate Cancer Clinical Outcomes Collaborative, Adelaide, Australia; Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Kerri Beckmann
- Cancer Epidemiology and Population Health Research Group, Allied Health and Human Performance, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
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Seppä K, Pitkäniemi J. Utilising cancer registry data to monitor cancer burden. Lancet Oncol 2024; 25:6-7. [PMID: 38096891 DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(23)00596-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2023] [Accepted: 11/16/2023] [Indexed: 01/07/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Karri Seppä
- Finnish Cancer Registry, Institute for Statistical and Epidemiological Cancer Research, FI-00130 Helsinki, Finland; Faculty of Social Sciences, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland.
| | - Janne Pitkäniemi
- Finnish Cancer Registry, Institute for Statistical and Epidemiological Cancer Research, FI-00130 Helsinki, Finland; Faculty of Social Sciences, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland; Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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Tiruye T, O'Callaghan M, Ettridge K, Moretti K, Jay A, Higgs B, Santoro K, Kichenadasse G, Beckmann K. Clinical and functional outcomes for risk-appropriate treatments for prostate cancer. BJUI COMPASS 2024; 5:109-120. [PMID: 38179028 PMCID: PMC10764171 DOI: 10.1002/bco2.288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2023] [Revised: 08/14/2023] [Accepted: 08/15/2023] [Indexed: 01/06/2024] Open
Abstract
Objectives To describe real-world clinical and functional outcomes in an Australian cohort of men with localised prostate cancer according to treatment type and risk category. Subjects and methods Men diagnosed from 2008 to 2018 who were enrolled in South Australian Prostate Cancer Clinical Outcomes Collaborative registry-a multi-institutional prospective clinical registry-were studied. The main outcome measures were overall survival, cancer-specific survival, decline in functional outcomes, biochemical recurrence and transition to active treatment following active surveillance. Multivariable adjusted models were applied to estimate outcomes. Results Of the 8513 eligible men, majority of men (46%) underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) followed by external beam radiation therapy with or without androgen deprivation therapy (EBRT +/- ADT) in 22% of the cohort. Five-year overall survival was above 91%, and 5-year prostate cancer-specific survival was above 97% in the low- and intermediate-risk categories across all treatments. Five-year prostate cancer-specific survival in the active surveillance group was 100%. About 37% of men with high-risk disease treated with RP and 17% of men treated with EBRT +/- ADT experienced biochemical recurrence within 5 years of treatment. Of men on active surveillance, 15% of those with low risk and 20% with intermediate risk converted to active treatment within 2 years. The decline in urinary continence and sexual function 12 months after treatment was greatest among men who underwent RP while the decline in bowel function was greatest for men who received EBRT +/- ADT. Conclusion This contemporary real-world evidence on risk-appropriate treatment outcomes helps inform treatment decision-making for clinicians and patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tenaw Tiruye
- Cancer Epidemiology and Population Health Research Group, Allied Health and Human PerformanceUniversity of South AustraliaAdelaideAustralia
- Public Health DepartmentDebre Markos UniversityDebre MarkosEthiopia
| | - Michael O'Callaghan
- South Australian Prostate Cancer Clinical Outcomes CollaborativeAdelaideAustralia
- Flinders Health and Medical Research InstituteFlinders UniversityAdelaideAustralia
- Discipline of MedicineUniversity of AdelaideAdelaideAustralia
- Flinders Medical CentreBedford ParkAustralia
| | - Kerry Ettridge
- Health Policy CentreSouth Australian Health and Medical Research InstituteAdelaideAustralia
- School of Public HealthUniversity of AdelaideAdelaideAustralia
| | - Kim Moretti
- Cancer Epidemiology and Population Health Research Group, Allied Health and Human PerformanceUniversity of South AustraliaAdelaideAustralia
- South Australian Prostate Cancer Clinical Outcomes CollaborativeAdelaideAustralia
- Discipline of SurgeryUniversity of AdelaideAdelaideAustralia
| | - Alex Jay
- Flinders Medical CentreBedford ParkAustralia
| | - Braden Higgs
- Cancer Epidemiology and Population Health Research Group, Allied Health and Human PerformanceUniversity of South AustraliaAdelaideAustralia
- Department of Radiation OncologyRoyal Adelaide HospitalAdelaideAustralia
| | - Kerry Santoro
- Southern Adelaide Local Health NetworkAdelaideAustralia
| | - Ganessan Kichenadasse
- Flinders Health and Medical Research InstituteFlinders UniversityAdelaideAustralia
- Flinders Medical CentreBedford ParkAustralia
| | - Kerri Beckmann
- Cancer Epidemiology and Population Health Research Group, Allied Health and Human PerformanceUniversity of South AustraliaAdelaideAustralia
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Myklebust TÅ, Aagnes B, Nilssen Y, Rutherford M, Lambert PC, Andersson TML, Johansson ALV, Dickman PW, Møller B. Improving communication of cancer survival statistics-feasibility of implementing model-based algorithms in routine publications. Br J Cancer 2023; 129:819-828. [PMID: 37433898 PMCID: PMC10449893 DOI: 10.1038/s41416-023-02360-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2023] [Revised: 06/27/2023] [Accepted: 06/29/2023] [Indexed: 07/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Routine reporting of cancer patient survival is important, both to monitor the effectiveness of health care and to inform about prognosis following a cancer diagnosis. A range of different survival measures exist, each serving different purposes and targeting different audiences. It is important that routine publications expand on current practice and provide estimates on a wider range of survival measures. We examine the feasibility of automated production of such statistics. METHODS We used data on 23 cancer sites obtained from the Cancer Registry of Norway (CRN). We propose an automated way of estimating flexible parametric relative survival models and calculating estimates of net survival, crude probabilities, and loss in life expectancy across many cancer sites and subgroups of patients. RESULTS For 21 of 23 cancer sites, we were able to estimate survival models without assuming proportional hazards. Reliable estimates of all desired measures were obtained for all cancer sites. DISCUSSION It may be challenging to implement new survival measures in routine publications as it can require the application of modeling techniques. We propose a way of automating the production of such statistics and show that we can obtain reliable estimates across a range of measures and subgroups of patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tor Åge Myklebust
- Department of Registration, Cancer Registry Norway, Oslo, Norway.
- Department of Research and Innovation, Møre and Romsdal Hospital Trust, Ålesund, Norway.
| | - Bjarte Aagnes
- Department of Registration, Cancer Registry Norway, Oslo, Norway
| | - Yngvar Nilssen
- Department of Registration, Cancer Registry Norway, Oslo, Norway
| | - Mark Rutherford
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Paul C Lambert
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Therese M L Andersson
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Anna L V Johansson
- Department of Registration, Cancer Registry Norway, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Paul W Dickman
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Bjørn Møller
- Department of Registration, Cancer Registry Norway, Oslo, Norway
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Lundberg FE, Kroman N, Lambe M, Andersson TML, Engholm G, Johannesen TB, Virtanen A, Pettersson D, Ólafsdóttir EJ, Birgisson H, Lambert PC, Mørch LS, Johansson ALV. Age-specific survival trends and life-years lost in women with breast cancer 1990-2016: the NORDCAN survival studies. Acta Oncol 2022; 61:1481-1489. [PMID: 36542678 DOI: 10.1080/0284186x.2022.2156811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A recent overview of cancer survival trends 1990-2016 in the Nordic countries reported continued improvements in age-standardized breast cancer survival among women. The aim was to estimate age-specific survival trends over calendar time, including life-years lost, to evaluate if improvements have benefited patients across all ages in the Nordic countries. METHODS Data on breast cancers diagnosed 1990-2016 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden were obtained from the NORDCAN database. Age-standardized and age-specific relative survival (RS) was estimated using flexible parametric models, as was reference-adjusted crude probabilities of death and life-years lost. RESULTS Age-standardized period estimates of 5-year RS in women diagnosed with breast cancer ranged from 87% to 90% and 10-year RS from 74% to 85%. Ten-year RS increased with 15-18 percentage points from 1990 to 2016, except in Sweden (+9 percentage points) which had the highest survival in 1990. The largest improvements were observed in Denmark, where a previous survival disadvantage diminished. Most recent 5-year crude probabilities of cancer death ranged from 9% (Finland, Sweden) to 12% (Denmark, Iceland), and life-years lost from 3.3 years (Finland) to 4.6 years (Denmark). Although survival improvements were consistent across different ages, women aged ≥70 years had the lowest RS in all countries. Period estimates of 5-year RS were 94-95% in age 55 years and 84-89% in age 75 years, while 10-year RS were 88-91% in age 55 years and 69-84% in age 75 years. Women aged 40 years lost on average 11.0-13.8 years, while women lost 3.8-6.0 years if aged 55 and 1.9-3.5 years if aged 75 years. CONCLUSIONS Survival for Nordic women with breast cancer improved from 1990 to 2016 in all age groups, albeit with larger country variation among older women where survival was also lower. Women over 70 years of age have not had the same survival improvement as women of younger age.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frida E Lundberg
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden
| | - Niels Kroman
- Department Breast Surgery, Copenhagen University Hospital (Herlev/Gentofte), Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Mats Lambe
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden.,Regional Cancer Centre Uppsala Örebro, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Therese M-L Andersson
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden
| | - Gerda Engholm
- Danish Cancer Society, Cancer Surveillance and Pharmacoepidemiology, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Anni Virtanen
- Finnish Cancer Registry, Helsinki, Finland.,Department of Pathology, University of Helsinki, and HUS Diagnostic Center, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
| | - David Pettersson
- Swedish Cancer Registry, National Board of Health and Welfare, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | | | - Paul C Lambert
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden.,Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Lina Steinrud Mørch
- Danish Cancer Society, Cancer Surveillance and Pharmacoepidemiology, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Anna L V Johansson
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden.,Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
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Syriopoulou E, Mozumder SI, Rutherford MJ, Lambert PC. Estimating causal effects in the presence of competing events using regression standardisation with the Stata command standsurv. BMC Med Res Methodol 2022; 22:226. [PMID: 35963987 PMCID: PMC9375409 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-022-01666-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2021] [Accepted: 06/24/2022] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND When interested in a time-to-event outcome, competing events that prevent the occurrence of the event of interest may be present. In the presence of competing events, various estimands have been suggested for defining the causal effect of treatment on the event of interest. Depending on the estimand, the competing events are either accommodated or eliminated, resulting in causal effects with different interpretations. The former approach captures the total effect of treatment on the event of interest while the latter approach captures the direct effect of treatment on the event of interest that is not mediated by the competing event. Separable effects have also been defined for settings where the treatment can be partitioned into two components that affect the event of interest and the competing event through different causal pathways. METHODS We outline various causal effects that may be of interest in the presence of competing events, including total, direct and separable effects, and describe how to obtain estimates using regression standardisation with the Stata command standsurv. Regression standardisation is applied by obtaining the average of individual estimates across all individuals in a study population after fitting a survival model. RESULTS With standsurv several contrasts of interest can be calculated including differences, ratios and other user-defined functions. Confidence intervals can also be obtained using the delta method. Throughout we use an example analysing a publicly available dataset on prostate cancer to allow the reader to replicate the analysis and further explore the different effects of interest. CONCLUSIONS Several causal effects can be defined in the presence of competing events and, under assumptions, estimates of those can be obtained using regression standardisation with the Stata command standsurv. The choice of which causal effect to define should be given careful consideration based on the research question and the audience to which the findings will be communicated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisavet Syriopoulou
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Sarwar I Mozumder
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Mark J Rutherford
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Paul C Lambert
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
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Survival trends in patients diagnosed with colon and rectal cancer in the nordic countries 1990-2016: The NORDCAN survival studies. Eur J Cancer 2022; 172:76-84. [PMID: 35759813 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2022.05.032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2022] [Revised: 04/29/2022] [Accepted: 05/20/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Survival of patients with colon and rectal cancer has improved in all Nordic countries during the past decades. The aim of this study was to further assess survival trends in patients with colon and rectal cancer in the Nordic countries by age at diagnosis and to present additional survival measures. METHODS Data on colon and rectal cancer cases diagnosed in the Nordic countries between 1990 and 2016 were obtained from the NORDCAN database. Relative survival was estimated using flexible parametric models. Both age-standardized and age-specific measures for women and men were estimated from the models, as well as reference-adjusted crude probabilities of death and life-years lost. RESULTS The five-year age-standardized relative survival of colon and rectal cancer patients continued to improve for women and men in all Nordic countries, from around 50% in 1990 to about 70% at the end of the study period. In general, survival was similar across age and sex. The largest improvement was seen for Danish men and women with rectal cancer, from 41% to 69% and from 43% to 71%, respectively. The age-standardized and reference-adjusted five-year crude probability of death in colon cancer ranged from 30% to 36% across countries, and for rectal cancer from 20% to 33%. The average number of age-standardized and reference-adjusted life-years lost ranged between six and nine years. CONCLUSION There were substantial improvements in colon and rectal cancer survival in all Nordic countries 1990-2016. Of special note is that the previously observed survival disadvantage in Denmark is no longer present.
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Andersson TML, Rutherford MJ, Møller B, Lambert PC, Myklebust TA. Reference adjusted loss in life expectancy for population-based cancer patient survival comparisons - with an application to colon cancer in Sweden. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2022; 31:1720-1726. [PMID: 35700010 DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.epi-22-0137] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2022] [Revised: 04/27/2022] [Accepted: 06/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The loss in life expectancy, LLE, is defined as the difference in life expectancy between cancer patients and that of the general population. It is a useful measure for summarising the impact of a cancer diagnosis on an individual's life expectancy. However, it is less useful for making comparisons of cancer survival across groups or over time, since the LLE is influenced by both mortality due to cancer and other causes and the life expectancy in the general population. METHODS We present an approach for making LLE estimates comparable across groups and over time by using reference expected mortality rates with flexible parametric relative survival models. The approach is illustrated by estimating temporal trends in LLE of colon cancer patients in Sweden. RESULTS The life expectancy of Swedish colon cancer patients has improved, but the LLE has not decreased to the same extent since the life expectancy in the general population has also increased. When using a fixed population and other-cause mortality, i.e. a reference-adjusted approach, the LLE decreases over time. For example, using 2010 mortality rates as the reference, the LLE for females diagnosed at age 65 decreased from 11.3 if diagnosed in 1976 to 7.2 if diagnosed in 2010, and from 3.9 to 1.9 years for women 85 years old at diagnosis. CONCLUSION The reference-adjusted LLE is useful for making comparisons across calendar time, or groups, since differences in other cause mortality are removed. IMPACT The reference-adjusted approach enhances the use of LLE as a comparative measure.
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Rutherford MJ, Andersson TML, Myklebust TÅ, Møller B, Lambert PC. Non-parametric estimation of reference adjusted, standardised probabilities of all-cause death and death due to cancer for population group comparisons. BMC Med Res Methodol 2022; 22:2. [PMID: 34991487 PMCID: PMC8740504 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-021-01465-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2021] [Accepted: 11/08/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ensuring fair comparisons of cancer survival statistics across population groups requires careful consideration of differential competing mortality due to other causes, and adjusting for imbalances over groups in other prognostic covariates (e.g. age). This has typically been achieved using comparisons of age-standardised net survival, with age standardisation addressing covariate imbalance, and the net estimates removing differences in competing mortality from other causes. However, these estimates lack ease of interpretability. In this paper, we motivate an alternative non-parametric approach that uses a common rate of other cause mortality across groups to give reference-adjusted estimates of the all-cause and cause-specific crude probability of death in contrast to solely reporting net survival estimates. METHODS We develop the methodology for a non-parametric equivalent of standardised and reference adjusted crude probabilities of death, building on the estimation of non-parametric crude probabilities of death. We illustrate the approach using regional comparisons of survival following a diagnosis of rectal cancer for men in England. We standardise to the covariate distribution and other cause mortality of England as a whole to offer comparability, but with close approximation to the observed all-cause region-specific mortality. RESULTS The approach gives comparable estimates to observed crude probabilities of death, but allows direct comparison across population groups with different covariate profiles and competing mortality patterns. In our illustrative example, we show that regional variations in survival following a diagnosis of rectal cancer persist even after accounting for the variation in deprivation, age at diagnosis and other cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS The methodological approach of using standardised and reference adjusted metrics offers an appealing approach for future cancer survival comparison studies and routinely published cancer statistics. Our non-parametric estimation approach through the use of weighting offers the ability to estimate comparable survival estimates without the need for statistical modelling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark J Rutherford
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
| | | | - Tor Åge Myklebust
- Department of Registration, Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Research and Innovation, Møre and Romsdal Hospital Trust, Ålesund, Norway
| | - Bjørn Møller
- Department of Registration, Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
| | - Paul C Lambert
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
- Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
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