The population dynamics of nematode infections of ruminants: the effect of seasonality in the free-living stages

Within-host and external environments differentially shape β-diversity across parasite life stages

Uncovering drivers of community assembly is a key aspect of learning how biological communities function. Drivers of community similarity can be especially useful in this task as they affect assemblage-level changes that lead to differences in species diversity between habitats. Concepts of β-diversity originally developed for use in free-living communities have been widely applied to parasite communities to gain insight into how infection risk changes with local conditions by comparing parasite communities across abiotic and biotic gradients. Factors shaping β-diversity in communities of immature parasites, such as larvae, are largely unknown. This is a key knowledge gap as larvae are frequently the infective life-stage and understanding variation in these larval communities is thus key for disease prevention. Our goal was to uncover links between β-diversity of parasite communities at different life stages; therefore, we used gastrointestinal nematodes infecting African buffalo in Kruger National Park, South Africa, to investigate within-host and extra-host drivers of adult and larval parasite community similarity. We employed a cross-sectional approach using PERMANOVA that examined each worm community at a single time point to assess independent drivers of β-diversity in larvae and adults as well as a longitudinal approach with path analysis where adult and larval communities from the same host were compared to better link drivers of β-diversity between these two life stages. Using the cross-sectional approach, we generally found that intrinsic, within-host traits had significant effects on β-diversity of adult nematode communities, while extrinsic, extra-host variables had significant effects on β-diversity of larval nematode communities. However, the longitudinal approach provided evidence that intrinsic, within-host factors affected the larval community indirectly via the adult community. Our results provide key data for the comparison of community-level processes where adult and immature stages inhabit vastly different habitats (i.e. within-host vs. abiotic environment). In the context of parasitism, this helps elucidate host infection risk via larval stages and the drivers that shape persistence of adult parasite assemblages, both of which are useful for predicting and preventing infectious disease.

Seasonally timed treatment programs for Ascaris lumbricoides to increase impact-An investigation using mathematical models

There is clear empirical evidence that environmental conditions can influence Ascaris spp. free-living stage development and host reinfection, but the impact of these differences on human infections, and interventions to control them, is variable. A new model framework reflecting four key stages of the A. lumbricoides life cycle, incorporating the effects of rainfall and temperature, is used to describe the level of infection in the human population alongside the environmental egg dynamics. Using data from South Korea and Nigeria, we conclude that settings with extreme fluctuations in rainfall or temperature could exhibit strong seasonal transmission patterns that may be partially masked by the longevity of A. lumbricoides infections in hosts; we go on to demonstrate how seasonally timed mass drug administration (MDA) could impact the outcomes of control strategies. For the South Korean setting the results predict a comparative decrease of 74.5% in mean worm days (the number of days the average individual spend infected with worms across a 12 month period) between the best and worst MDA timings after four years of annual treatment. The model found no significant seasonal effect on MDA in the Nigerian setting due to a narrower annual temperature range and no rainfall dependence. Our results suggest that seasonal variation in egg survival and maturation could be exploited to maximise the impact of MDA in certain settings.

An explicit immunogenetic model of gastrointestinal nematode infection in sheep

Gastrointestinal nematodes are a global cause of disease and death in humans, wildlife and livestock. Livestock infection has historically been controlled with anthelmintic drugs, but the development of resistance means that alternative controls are needed. The most promising alternatives are vaccination, nutritional supplementation and selective breeding, all of which act by enhancing the immune response. Currently, control planning is hampered by reliance on the faecal egg count (FEC), which suffers from low accuracy and a nonlinear and indirect relationship with infection intensity and host immune responses. We address this gap by using extensive parasitological, immunological and genetic data on the sheep–Teladorsagia circumcincta interaction to create an immunologically explicit model of infection dynamics in a sheep flock that links host genetic variation with variation in the two key immune responses to predict the observed parasitological measures. Using our model, we show that the immune responses are highly heritable and by comparing selective breeding based on low FECs versus high plasma IgA responses, we show that the immune markers are a much improved measure of host resistance. In summary, we have created a model of host–parasite infections that explicitly captures the development of the adaptive immune response and show that by integrating genetic, immunological and parasitological understanding we can identify new immune-based markers for diagnosis and control.

Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks

Parasitic nematodes represent one of the most pervasive and significant challenges to grazing livestock, and their intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by climate. Parasite levels and species composition have already shifted under climate change, with nematode parasite intensity frequently low in newly colonized areas, but sudden large-scale outbreaks are becoming increasingly common. These outbreaks compromise both food security and animal welfare, yet there is a paucity of predictions on how climate change will influence livestock parasites. This study aims to assess how climate change can affect parasite risk. Using a process-based approach, we determine how changes in temperature-sensitive elements of outbreaks influence parasite dynamics, to explore the potential for climate change to influence livestock helminth infections. We show that changes in temperate-sensitive parameters can result in nonlinear responses in outbreak dynamics, leading to distinct 'tipping-points' in nematode parasite burdens. Through applying two mechanistic models, of varying complexity, our approach demonstrates that these nonlinear responses are robust to the inclusion of a number of realistic processes that are present in livestock systems. Our study demonstrates that small changes in climatic conditions around critical thresholds may result in dramatic changes in parasite burdens.

Exploiting parallels between livestock and wildlife: Predicting the impact of climate change on gastrointestinal nematodes in ruminants

Global change, including climate, policy, land use and other associated environmental changes, is likely to have a major impact on parasitic disease in wildlife, altering the spatio-temporal patterns of transmission, with wide-ranging implications for wildlife, domestic animals, humans and ecosystem health. Predicting the potential impact of climate change on parasites infecting wildlife will become increasingly important in the management of species of conservation concern and control of disease at the wildlife-livestock and wildlife-human interface, but is confounded by incomplete knowledge of host-parasite interactions, logistical difficulties, small sample sizes and limited opportunities to manipulate the system. By exploiting parallels between livestock and wildlife, existing theoretical frameworks and research on livestock and their gastrointestinal nematodes can be adapted to wildlife systems. Similarities in the gastrointestinal nematodes and the life-histories of wild and domestic ruminants, coupled with a detailed knowledge of the ecology and life-cycle of the parasites, render the ruminant-GIN host-parasite system particularly amenable to a cross-disciplinary approach.

Modelling parasite transmission in a grazing system: the importance of host behaviour and immunity

Parasitic helminths present one of the most pervasive challenges to grazing herbivores. Many macro-parasite transmission models focus on host physiological defence strategies, omitting more complex interactions between hosts and their environments. This work represents the first model that integrates both the behavioural and physiological elements of gastro-intestinal nematode transmission dynamics in a managed grazing system. A spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic model is developed, that incorporates both the hosts' immunological responses to parasitism, and key grazing behaviours including faecal avoidance. The results demonstrate that grazing behaviour affects both the timing and intensity of parasite outbreaks, through generating spatial heterogeneity in parasite risk and nutritional resources, and changing the timing of exposure to the parasites' free-living stages. The influence of grazing behaviour varies with the host-parasite combination, dependent on the development times of different parasite species and variations in host immune response. Our outputs include the counterintuitive finding that under certain conditions perceived parasite avoidance behaviours (faecal avoidance) can increase parasite risk, for certain host-parasite combinations. Through incorporating the two-way interaction between infection dynamics and grazing behaviour, the potential benefits of parasite-induced anorexia are also demonstrated. Hosts with phenotypic plasticity in grazing behaviour, that make grazing decisions dependent on current parasite burden, can reduce infection with minimal loss of intake over the grazing season. This paper explores how both host behaviours and immunity influence macro-parasite transmission in a spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment. The magnitude and timing of parasite outbreaks is influenced by host immunity and behaviour, and the interactions between them; the incorporation of both regulatory processes is required to fully understand transmission dynamics. Understanding of both physiological and behavioural defence strategies will aid the development of novel approaches for control.

Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases

Seasonal variations in temperature, rainfall and resource availability are ubiquitous and can exert strong pressures on population dynamics. Infectious diseases provide some of the best-studied examples of the role of seasonality in shaping population fluctuations. In this paper, we review examples from human and wildlife disease systems to illustrate the challenges inherent in understanding the mechanisms and impacts of seasonal environmental drivers. Empirical evidence points to several biologically distinct mechanisms by which seasonality can impact host-pathogen interactions, including seasonal changes in host social behaviour and contact rates, variation in encounters with infective stages in the environment, annual pulses of host births and deaths and changes in host immune defences. Mathematical models and field observations show that the strength and mechanisms of seasonality can alter the spread and persistence of infectious diseases, and that population-level responses can range from simple annual cycles to more complex multiyear fluctuations. From an applied perspective, understanding the timing and causes of seasonality offers important insights into how parasite-host systems operate, how and when parasite control measures should be applied, and how disease risks will respond to anthropogenic climate change and altered patterns of seasonality. Finally, by focusing on well-studied examples of infectious diseases, we hope to highlight general insights that are relevant to other ecological interactions.

Nematode parasites of sheep: extension of a simple model to include host variability

We use results from a simulation-based model of nematode infection of sheep to refine the parameters in a simpler generic model of host-parasite population dynamics. These parameters describe the following host-parasite traits: probability of establishment of ingested larvae, mortality rate of adult parasites, and fecundity of adult female parasites. This simple model is then extended by allowing those parameters to vary amongst individual hosts. A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine which parameters have most influence on host parasite burden. The establishment parameter has the greatest effect on the peak value of parasite burden whilst the other two parameters have more effect on the duration of the burden. A comparison is made with results from the flock model after discussion of the definition of an average host. By allowing these parameters to vary simultaneously within the individual hosts we are able to reproduce the over-dispersed distribution of adult parasites frequently seen in nematode infections of sheep flocks.

Stochastic and spatial dynamics of nematode parasites in farmed ruminants

Host-parasite systems provide powerful opportunities for the study of spatial and stochastic effects in ecology; this has been particularly so for directly transmitted microparasites. Here, we construct a fully stochastic model of the population dynamics of a macroparasite system: trichostrongylid gastrointestinal nematode parasites of farmed ruminants. The model subsumes two implicit spatial effects: the host population size (the spatial extent of the interaction between hosts) and spatial heterogeneity ('clumping') in the infection process. This enables us to investigate the roles of several different processes in generating aggregated parasite distributions. The necessity for female worms to find a mate in order to reproduce leads to an Allee effect, which interacts nonlinearly with the stochastic population dynamics and leads to the counter-intuitive result that, when rare, epidemics can be more likely and more severe in small host populations. Clumping in the infection process reduces the strength of this Allee effect, but can hamper the spread of an epidemic by making infection events too rare. Heterogeneity in the hosts' response to infection has to be included in the model to generate aggregation at the level observed empirically.

Stochastic modelling of environmental variation for biological populations

We examine stochastic effects, in particular environmental variability, in population models of biological systems. Some simple models of environmental stochasticity are suggested, and we demonstrate a number of analytic approximations and simulation-based approaches that can usefully be applied to them. Initially, these techniques, including moment-closure approximations and local linearization, are explored in the context of a simple and relatively tractable process. Our presentation seeks to introduce these techniques to a broad-based audience of applied modellers. Therefore, as a test case, we study a natural stochastic formulation of a non-linear deterministic model for nematode infections in ruminants, proposed by Roberts and Grenfell (1991). This system is particularly suitable for our purposes, since it captures the essence of more complicated formulations of parasite demography and herd immunity found in the literature. We explore two modes of behaviour. In the endemic regime the stochastic dynamic fluctuates widely around the non-zero fixed points of the deterministic model. Enhancement of these fluctuations in the presence of environmental stochasticity can lead to extinction events. Using a simple model of environmental fluctuations we show that the magnitude of this system response reflects not only the variance of environmental noise, but also its autocorrelation structure. In the managed regime host-replacement is modelled via periodic perturbation of the population variables. In the absence of environmental variation stochastic effects are negligible, and we examine the system response to a realistic environmental perturbation based on the effect of micro-climatic fluctuations on the contact rate. The resultant stochastic effects and the relevance of analytic approximations based on simple models of environmental stochasticity are discussed.

The immunoepidemiology of nematode parasites of farmed animals: a mathematical approach

The population dynamics of farmed animals are controlled by humans, and often involve high host densities, which encourage higher parasite burdens than would be usual in wild animals. As a result, the immunity to reinfection acquired by the host is an important determinant of parasite population dynamics. For example, lambs are highly susceptible to gastrointestinal nematodes as they begin to graze, but develop an immunity that accounts for the observed within-year variation in parasite load and pasture contamination. In the longer term, control measures are compromised by the development of parasite strains resistant to chemotherapy, focusing attention on the development of 'natural' measures, including the selection for resistant hosts and the development of antiparasite vaccines. Mick Roberts here considers the immunoepidemiology of parasites of farmed animals on three levels: the interaction between the parasite and the host's immune system determining the individual's level of protection; the development of acquired immunity determining the within-year parasite population dynamics; and the long-term effects of control measures on the between-year parasite population dynamics.

Anthelmintic resistance revisited: under-dosing, chemoprophylactic strategies, and mating probabilities

Deterministic and stochastic models are used to examine the evolution of anthelmintic resistance among trichostrongylid parasites of domestic ruminants. We find that the relative selection pressures exerted by chemoprophylactic (preventive) control strategies, chemotherapeutic (salvage) control strategies, and regimens involving "under-dosing" are critically dependent on a variety of host and parasite parameters (particularly host immunity and grazing behaviour, parasite fecundity, and the survival of the free-living stages on the pasture). Chemoprophylactic strategies are not necessarily more likely to exert a stronger selection pressure than chemotherapeutic strategies. Similarly, as one reduces dosage levels, there is a range of dose levels where under-dosing promotes resistance and a range of dose levels where under-dosing impedes resistance. The most dangerous dose is either that necessary to kill all the susceptible homozygotes, or that necessary to kill all the susceptible homozygotes and all the heterozygotes. Which one prevails depends upon model parameters. The stochastic formulation indicates that spatial heterogeneity in transmission may be a significant force in promoting the spread of resistant genotypes--at least when infection is at low levels.

Effect of seasonal host reproduction on host-macroparasite dynamics

The impact of seasonal host reproduction on the population dynamics of host-macroparasite interactions is considered. We modify the classic Anderson and May model so that parameters associated with host reproduction are periodic functions of time with a period corresponding to a year. This allows us to compare our findings with those already well documented. If, in the absence of any seasonality, a stable steady-state solution exists annual reproduction gives rise to stable annual population cycles. Moreover, the parameter domain for which there is stability is increased by the seasonality. However, if the life span of the free-living stages is reasonably long, and the continuous model has limit cycle solutions, complex behavior can be observed in the seasonally forced case. Results also indicate that if seasonal effects are ignored, regulation of the hosts by the parasite population is overestimated.

A pocket guide to host-parasite models

Mathematical models have been used to describe the population dynamics of a wide range of host-parasite interactions. Mick Roberts here discusses mathematical models for the dynamics of helminth endoparasites of non-human mammalian hosts, paying particular attention to the density-dependent factors that regulate the parasite populations, and the interaction between parasite and wild or feral animal host populations.

The dynamics of nematode infections of farmed ruminants

In this paper the dynamics and control of nematode parasites of farmed ruminants are discussed via a qualitative analysis of a differential equation model. To achieve this a quantity, 'the basic reproduction quotient' (Q0), whose definition coincides with previous definitions of R0 for macroparasites, but extends to models with periodic time-varying transition rates between parasite stages or management interventions, is introduced. This quantity has the usual threshold property: if Q0 is less than one the parasite population cannot maintain itself in the host population, and in the long term becomes extinct; but if Q0 is greater than one the parasite can invade the host population. An alternative quantity, R(E), that is often easier to calculate is also introduced, and shown to have the same threshold property. The use of these two quantities in analysing models for the dynamics of nematodes in complex situations is then demonstrated, with reference to the dynamics of mixed parasite species in one host; the effects of breeding host animals for resistance to parasitism; and the development of parasite strains that are resistant to chemotherapy. Five examples are discussed using parameters for the dynamics of nematode infections in sheep, and some statements on control policies are derived.

Threshold quantities for helminth infections

For parasites with a clearly defined life-cycle we give threshold quantities that determine the stability of the parasite-free steady state for autonomous and periodic deterministic systems formulated in terms of mean parasite burdens. We discuss the biological interpretations of the quantities, how to deal with heterogeneity in both parasite and host populations, how to incorporate the effects of periodic discontinuities, and the relation of the threshold quantities to the basic reproduction ratio Ro. Examples from the literature are given. The analysis of the periodic case extends easily to 'micro-parasitic' systems.

Modelling of parasite populations: gastrointestinal nematode models

This paper surveys models of nematode parasites of veterinary importance. A distinction is drawn between generic models which are usually simple formulations applicable to whole classes of parasite and specific models which are often more complex and designed to address questions concerning a particular species. Most of the models considered employ a deterministic framework. Four main groups are considered: generic models of trichostrongylid infection of domestic ruminants, specific models of trichostrongylid infection of domestic ruminants, specific models of experimental laboratory infections of rodents, and a specific model of nematode infections in wildlife.

Population biology of the parasitic phase of trichostrongylid nematode parasites of cattle and sheep

This paper reviews the previous mathematical and conceptual models for the parasitic phase of a range of trichostrongylid nematode parasites of cattle and sheep. It reassesses the results of single and trickle infection experiments and suggests as a working hypothesis that the common trichostrongylids are essentially identical with respect to the processes that determine their survivorship in the host. Parasite abundance in the parasitic phase is explained in terms of immune exclusion, which acts on recently ingested third stage larvae, and mortality of established (fifth stage) parasites. The functional forms used to describe immune exclusion and the mortality of fifth stage worms are defined, respectively, as a declining sigmoid and an asymptotic curve.