Predicting Radiotherapy Patient Outcomes with Real-Time Clinical Data Using Mathematical Modelling

Longitudinal tumour volume data from head-and-neck cancer patients show that tumours of comparable pre-treatment size and stage may respond very differently to the same radiotherapy fractionation protocol. Mathematical models are often proposed to predict treatment outcome in this context, and have the potential to guide clinical decision-making and inform personalised fractionation protocols. Hindering effective use of models in this context is the sparsity of clinical measurements juxtaposed with the model complexity required to produce the full range of possible patient responses. In this work, we present a compartment model of tumour volume and tumour composition, which, despite relative simplicity, is capable of producing a wide range of patient responses. We then develop novel statistical methodology and leverage a cohort of existing clinical data to produce a predictive model of both tumour volume progression and the associated level of uncertainty that evolves throughout a patient's course of treatment. To capture inter-patient variability, all model parameters are patient specific, with a bootstrap particle filter-like Bayesian approach developed to model a set of training data as prior knowledge. We validate our approach against a subset of unseen data, and demonstrate both the predictive ability of our trained model and its limitations.

Simulation of Gamma-Ray Transmission Buildup Factors for Stratified Spherical Layers

Deterministic particle transport codes usually take into account scattered photons with correct attenuation laws and application of buildup factor to incident beam. Transmission buildup factors for adipose, bone, muscle, and skin human tissues, as well as for various combinations of these media for point isotropic photon source with energies of .15, 1.5 and 15 MeV, for different thickness of layers, were carried out using Geant4 (version 10.5) simulation toolkit. Also, we performed the analysis of existing multilayered shield fitting models (Lin and Jiang, Kalos, Burke and Beck) of buildup factor and the proposition of a new model. We found that the model combining those of Burke and Beck, for low atomic number (Z) followed by high Z materials and Kalos 1 for high Z followed by low Z materials, accurately reproduces simulation results with approximated deviation of 3 ± 3%, 2 ± 2%, and 3 ± 2% for 2, 3, and 4 layers, respectively. Since buildup factors are the key parameter for point kernel calculations, a correct study can be of great interest to the large community of radiation physicists, in general, and to medical imaging and radiotreatment physicists, especially.

WAM to SeeSaw model for cancer therapy - overcoming LQM difficulties

PURPOSE

The assessment of biological effects caused by radiation exposure has been currently carried out with the linear-quadratic (LQ) model as an extension of the linear non-threshold (LNT) model. In this study, we suggest a new mathematical model named as SeaSaw (SS) model, which describes proliferation and cell death effects by taking account of Bergonie-Tribondeau's law in terms of a differential equation in time. We show how this model overcomes the long-standing difficulties of the LQ model.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We construct the SS model as an extended Wack-A-Mole (WAM) model by using a differential equation with respect to time in order to express the dynamics of the proliferation effect. A large number of accumulated data of such parameters as α and β in the LQ based models provide us with valuable pieces of information on the corresponding parameter b 1 and the maximum volume V m of the SS model. The dose rate b 1 and the notion of active cell can explain the present data without introduction of β, which is obtained by comparing the SS model with not only the cancer therapy data but also with in vitro experimental data. Numerical calculations are presented to grasp the global features of the SS model.

RESULTS

The SS model predicts the time dependence of the number of active- and inactive-cells. The SS model clarifies how the effect of radiation depends on the cancer stage at the starting time in the treatment. Further, the time dependence of the tumor volume is calculated by changing individual dose strength, which results in the change of the irradiation duration for the same effect. We can consider continuous irradiation in the SS model with interesting outcome on the time dependence of the tumor volume for various dose rates. Especially by choosing the value of the dose rate to be balanced with the total growth rate, the tumor volume is kept constant.

CONCLUSIONS

The SS model gives a simple equation to study the situation of clinical radiation therapy and risk estimation of radiation. The radiation parameter extracted from the cancer therapy is close to the value obtained from animal experiment in vitro and in vivo. We expect the SS model leads us to a unified description of radiation therapy and protection and provides a great development in cancer-therapy clinical-planning.

Mathematical oncology and it's application in non melanoma skin cancer - A primer for radiation oncology professionals

Cancers of the skin (the majority of which are basal and squamous cell skin carcinomas, but also include the rarer Merkel cell carcinoma) are overwhelmingly the most common of all types of cancer. Most of these are treated surgically, with radiation reserved for those patients with high risk features or anatomical locations less suitable for surgery. Given the high incidence of both basal and squamous cell carcinomas, as well as the relatively poor outcome for Merkel cell carcinoma, it is useful to investigate the role of other disciplines regarding their diagnosis, staging and treatment. Mathematical modelling is one such area of investigation. The use of mathematical modelling is a relatively recent addition to the armamentarium of cancer treatment. It has long been recognised that tumour growth and treatment response is a complex, non-linear biological phenomenon with many mechanisms yet to be understood. Despite decades of research, including clinical, population and basic science approaches, we continue to be challenged by the complexity, heterogeneity and adaptability of tumours, both in individual patients in the oncology clinic and across wider patient populations. Prospective clinical trials predominantly focus on average outcome, with little understanding as to why individual patients may or may not respond. The use of mathematical models may lead to a greater understanding of tumour initiation, growth dynamics and treatment response.

Integrating Mathematical Modeling into the Roadmap for Personalized Adaptive Radiation Therapy

In current radiation oncology practice, treatment protocols are prescribed based on the average outcomes of large clinical trials, with limited personalization and without adaptations of dose or dose fractionation to individual patients based on their individual clinical responses. Predicting tumor responses to radiation and comparing predictions against observed responses offers an opportunity for novel treatment evaluation. These analyses can lead to protocol adaptation aimed at the improvement of patient outcomes with better therapeutic ratios. We foresee the integration of mathematical models into radiation oncology to simulate individual patient tumor growth and predict treatment response as dynamic biomarkers for personalized adaptive radiation therapy (RT).