A Classifier to Predict Viral Control After Antiretroviral Treatment Interruption in Chronic HIV-1-Infected Patients

OBJECTIVES

To construct a classifier that predicts the probability of viral control after analytical treatment interruptions (ATI) in HIV research trials.

METHODS

Participants of a dendritic cell-based therapeutic vaccine trial (DCV2) constituted the derivation cohort. One of the primary endpoints of DCV2 was the drop of viral load (VL) set point after 12 weeks of ATI (delta VL12). We classified cases as "controllers" (delta VL12 > 1 log10 copies/mL, n = 12) or "noncontrollers" (delta VL12 < 0.5 log10 copies/mL, n = 10) and compared 190 variables (clinical data, lymphocyte subsets, inflammatory markers, viral reservoir, ELISPOT, and lymphoproliferative responses) between the 2 groups. Naive Bayes classifiers were built from combinations of significant variables. The best model was subsequently validated on an independent cohort.

RESULTS

Controllers had significantly higher pre-antiretroviral treatment VL [110,250 (IQR 71,968-275,750) vs. 28,600 (IQR 18737-39365) copies/mL, P = 0.003] and significantly lower proportion of some T-lymphocyte subsets than noncontrollers: prevaccination CD4CD45RA+RO+ (1.72% vs. 7.47%, P = 0.036), CD8CD45RA+RO+ (7.92% vs. 15.69%, P = 0.017), CD4+CCR5+ (4.25% vs. 7.40%, P = 0.011), and CD8+CCR5+ (14.53% vs. 27.30%, P = 0.043), and postvaccination CD4+CXCR4+ (12.44% vs. 22.80%, P = 0.021). The classifier based on pre-antiretroviral treatment VL and prevaccine CD8CD45RA+RO+ T cells was the best predictive model (overall accuracy: 91%). In an independent validation cohort of 107 ATI episodes, the model correctly identified nonresponders (negative predictive value = 94%), while it failed to identify responders (positive predictive value = 20%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our simple classifier could correctly classify those patients with low probability of control of VL after ATI. These data could be helpful for HIV research trial design.

Virological Outcome Measures During Analytical Treatment Interruptions in Chronic HIV-1-Infected Patients

Background

Analytical treatment interruptions (ATIs) are essential in research on HIV cure. However, the heterogeneity of virological outcome measures used in different trials hinders the interpretation of the efficacy of different strategies.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of viral load (VL) evolution in 334 ATI episodes in chronic HIV-1-infected patients collected from 11 prospective studies. Quantitative (baseline VL, set point, delta set point, VL, and delta VL at given weeks after ATI, peak VL, delta peak VL, and area under the rebound curve) and temporal parameters (time to rebound [TtR], set point, peak, and certain absolute and relative VL thresholds) were described. Pairwise correlations between parameters were analyzed, and potential confounding factors (sex, age, time of known HIV infection, time on ART, and immunological interventions) were evaluated.

Results

The set point was lower than baseline VL (median delta set point, –0.26; P < .001). This difference was >1 log10 copies/mL in 13.9% of the cases. The median TtR was 2 weeks; no patients had an undetectable VL at week 12. The median time to set point was 8 weeks: by week 12, 97.4% of the patients had reached the set point. TtR and baseline VL were correlated with most temporal and quantitative parameters. The variables independently associated with TtR were baseline VL and the use of immunological interventions.

Conclusions

TtR could be an optimal surrogate marker of response in HIV cure strategies. Our results underline the importance of taking into account baseline VL and other confounding factors in the design and interpretation of these studies.

Failure to achieve immunological recovery in HIV-infected patients with clinical and virological success after 10 years of combined ART: role of treatment course

OBJECTIVES

We assessed factors, including treatment course, associated with failure to obtain a 10 year immunological response after starting first-generation PI-containing combined ART (cART).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In the prospective COPILOTE cohort of HIV-infected patients started on a first-generation PI-containing regimen in 1997-99, the impact of cART history on the failure to achieve immunological response measured at 10 years was assessed by multivariate logistic regression models in the 399 patients with clinical and virological success of cART.

RESULTS

Failure of CD4 response (CD4 >500/mm³) was associated with age ≥40 years at baseline (P < 0.001), CD4 cell counts ≤500/mm³ at month 4 (P = 0.016) or month 12 (P < 0.001) and ≥3 months of cART interruption (P = 0.016). Factors associated with failure to achieve complete immunological response (CD4 >500/mm³ and CD4:CD8 ratio >1) were CD4:CD8 ratio ≤0.8 at month 8 (P < 0.001) or month 12 (P < 0.001), ≥3 months of cumulative cART interruption (P = 0.011), ≥3 antiretroviral regimens (P = 0.009) and ≤4 treatment lines (P = 0.015). Baseline CD4 and CD4:CD8 ratio were not predictors of the 10 year immunological outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In this therapeutic cohort of patients starting first-generation PI-containing cART in 1997-99, poor initial immunological response had a negative impact on 10 year CD4 and CD4 plus CD4:CD8 ratio response, despite prolonged virological success. Lack of treatment interruption may improve long-term immunological outcome in HIV infection.

Randomized trial of time-limited interruptions of protease inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) vs. continuous therapy for HIV-1 infection

Background

The clinical outcomes of short interruptions of PI-based ART regimens remains undefined.

Methods

A 2-arm non-inferiority trial was conducted on 53 HIV-1 infected South African participants with viral load <50 copies/ml and CD4 T cell count >450 cells/µl on stavudine (or zidovudine), lamivudine and lopinavir/ritonavir. Subjects were randomized to a) sequential 2, 4 and 8-week ART interruptions or b) continuous ART (cART). Primary analysis was based on the proportion of CD4 count >350 cells(c)/ml over 72 weeks. Adherence, HIV-1 drug resistance, and CD4 count rise over time were analyzed as secondary endpoints.

Results

The proportions of CD4 counts >350 cells/µl were 82.12% for the intermittent arm and 93.73 for the cART arm; the difference of 11.95% was above the defined 10% threshold for non-inferiority (upper limit of 97.5% CI, 24.1%; 2-sided CI: −0.16, 23.1). No clinically significant differences in opportunistic infections, adverse events, adherence or viral resistance were noted; after randomization, long-term CD4 rise was observed only in the cART arm.

Conclusion

We are unable to conclude that short PI-based ART interruptions are non-inferior to cART in retention of immune reconstitution; however, short interruptions did not lead to a greater rate of resistance mutations or adverse events than cART suggesting that this regimen may be more forgiving than NNRTIs if interruptions in therapy occur.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00100646

Antiretroviral treatment interruption leads to progression of liver fibrosis in HIV-hepatitis C virus co-infection

OBJECTIVE

Despite potential negative consequences, HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infected patients may discontinue antiretroviral treatment (ART) for several reasons. We examined the impact of ART interruption on liver fibrosis progression in co-infected adults, using the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as a surrogate marker of liver fibrosis.

METHOD

Data were analyzed from a multisite prospective cohort of 541 HIV-HCV co-infected adults. ART interruption was included as a time-updated variable and defined as the cessation of all antiretrovirals for at least 14 days. The primary endpoint was the development of an APRI score at least 1.5. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression and inverse probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) in a marginal structural model were used to evaluate the association of baseline and time-varying covariates with developing significant fibrosis.

RESULTS

Patients were followed for a median of 1.02 years; 10% (n = 53) interrupted ART and 10% (n = 53) developed significant fibrosis. After accounting for potential confounders, including CD4 T-cell count, HIV viral load, baseline APRI score, age and gender, the hazard ratio for ART interruption was 2.52 (95% confidence interval 1.20-5.28). Use of IPTW resulted in a similar effect estimate, suggesting that mediation by time-varying confounders was negligible.

CONCLUSION

ART interruption was associated with an increased risk of fibrosis progression in HIV-HCV co-infection that was only partially accounted for by HIV viral load and CD4 T-cell counts. Our findings suggest that liver disease progression observed in ART-treated co-infected patients is partly due to the consequences of treatment interruptions.