Cumulative viral load as a predictor of CD4+ T-cell response to antiretroviral therapy using Bayesian statistical models

INTRODUCTION

There are Challenges in statistically modelling immune responses to longitudinal HIV viral load exposure as a function of covariates. We define Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo mixed effects models to incorporate priors and examine the effect of different distributional assumptions. We prospectively fit these models to an as-yet-unpublished data from the Tshwane District Hospital HIV treatment clinic in South Africa, to determine if cumulative log viral load, an indicator of long-term viral exposure, is a valid predictor of immune response.

METHODS

Models are defined, to express 'slope', i.e. mean annual increase in CD4 counts, and 'asymptote', i.e. the odds of having a CD4 count ≥500 cells/μL during antiretroviral treatment, as a function of covariates and random-effects. We compare the effect of using informative versus non-informative prior distributions on model parameters. Models with cubic splines or Skew-normal distributions are also compared using the conditional Deviance Information Criterion.

RESULTS

The data of 750 patients are analyzed. Overall, models adjusting for cumulative log viral load provide a significantly better fit than those that do not. An increase in cumulative log viral load is associated with a decrease in CD4 count slope (19.6 cells/μL (95% credible interval: 28.26, 10.93)) and a reduction in the odds of achieving a CD4 counts ≥500 cells/μL (0.42 (95% CI: 0.236, 0.730)) during 5 years of therapy. Using informative priors improves the cumulative log viral load estimate, and a skew-normal distribution for the random-intercept and measurement error results is a better fit compared to using classical Gaussian distributions.

DISCUSSION

We demonstrate in an unpublished South African cohort that cumulative log viral load is a strong and significant predictor of both CD4 count slope and asymptote. We argue that Bayesian methods should be used more frequently for such data, given their flexibility to incorporate prior information and non-Gaussian distributions.

Characteristics of hypertension among people living with HIV in Ghana: Impact of new hypertension guideline

Data on the burden of hypertension among people living with HIV (PLWH) in Africa are limited, especially after new expert consensus hypertension guidelines were published in 2017. The authors sought to assess the prevalence and factors associated with hypertension among PLWH. This is a cross-sectional study involving PLWH on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) (n = 250) compared with sex-matched cART-naïve PLWH (n = 201) in Ghana. Hypertension was defined as blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mm Hg or use of antihypertensive drugs. The authors also assessed the prevalence and predictors associated with hypertension using the recent guideline recommended cutoff BP ≥ 130/80 mm Hg. Multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with hypertension among PLWH. The mean age of PLWH on cART was 45.7 ± 8.6 years, and 42.9 ± 8.8 years among PLWH cART-naive with 81% of study participants being women. The prevalence of hypertension among PLWH on cART and PLWH cART-naïve was 36.9% and 23.4%, P = 0.002 at BP ≥ 140/90 mm Hg and 57.2% and 42.3%, respectively, P = 0.0009, at BP ≥ 130/80 mm Hg. Factors associated with hypertension at BP ≥ 140/90 mm Hg in the PLWH group with adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) were increasing age, 2.08 (1.60-2.71) per 10 years, and body mass index, 1.53 (1.24-1.88) per 5 kg/m² rise. At BP ≥ 130/80 mm Hg, cART exposure, aOR of 1.77 (95% CI: 1.20-2.63), family history of hypertension, aOR of 1.43 (1.12-1.83), and hypertriglyceridemia, aOR of 0.54 (0.31-0.93), were associated with hypertension. Among PLWH, cART exposure was associated with higher prevalence of hypertension per the new guideline definition, a finding which warrants further investigation and possible mitigation.

Evaluation of Vascular Event Risk while on Long-term Anti-retroviral Suppressive Therapy [EVERLAST]: Protocol for a prospective observational study

Background & objective

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among the HIV population is high due to a combination of accelerated atherosclerosis from the pro-inflammatory milieu created by chronic HIV infection and the potentially adverse metabolic side effects from cART (combination antiretroviral therapy) medications. Although sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) bears 70% of the global burden of HIV disease, there is a relative paucity of studies comprehensively assessing CVD risk among people living with HIV on the continent. The overarching objective of the Evaluation of Vascular Event Risk while on Long-term Anti-retroviral Suppressive Therapy (EVERLAST) Study is to characterize the burden of CVD among HIV patients on ART in Ghana, and explore factors influencing it.

Methods

The EVERLAST study incorporates prospective CVD risk assessments and a convergent mixed methods approach. This prospective study will evaluate CVD risk by measuring Carotid Intimal Media Thickness (CIMT) and presence of traditional medical and lifestyle vascular risk among 240 Ghanaian HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy compared with age- and sex-matched HIV uninfected (n = 240) and HIV positive ART naïve controls (n = 240). A contextual qualitative analysis will also be conducted to determine attitudes/perceptions of various key local stakeholders about CVD risk among HIV patients. The primary outcome measure will be CIMT measured cross-sectionally and prospectively among the three groups. A host of secondary outcome variables including CVD risk factors, CVD risk equations, HIV associated neurocognitive dysfunction and psychological well-being will also be assessed.

Conclusion

EVERLAST will provide crucial insights into the unique contributions of ART exposure and environmental factors such as lifestyle, traditional beliefs, and socio-economic indicators to CVD risk among HIV patients in a resource-limited setting. Ultimately, findings from our study will be utilized to develop interventions that will be tested in a randomized controlled trial to provide evidence to guide CVD risk management in SSA.

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EVERLAST seeks to assess the burden and determinants of cardiovascular risk among Ghanaian HIV patients

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A mixed methods study with prospective analyses of CVD risk factors among HIV patients and HIV-negative controls over 12 months

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Primary outcome measure is sub-clinical carotid atherosclerosis measured using B-mode ultrasound.

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Secondary outcome measures include neurocognitive dysfunction, and CVD events.

Burden of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis and vascular risk factors among people living with HIV in Ghana

BACKGROUND

The burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people living with HIV (PLWH) in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise due to a rapid epidemiological transition and improved treatment of HIV infection on the sub-continent.

OBJECTIVE

The Evaluation of Vascular Event Risk while on Long-term Anti-retroviral Suppressive Therapy (EVERLAST) Study sought to assess the extent of subclinical atherosclerosis and characterize the nature of CVD risk factors among HIV patients on Antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ghana.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study involving HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy (n = 250) in comparison with HIV positive ART naïve (n = 201), and HIV uninfected controls (n = 250). We assessed prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, central obesity, and carotid atherosclerosis using B-mode carotid Doppler ultrasonography. We assessed factors associated with subclinical atherosclerosis defined by a carotid intimal media thickness (CIMT) cut-off of ≥0.78 mm among PLWH using a logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Mean age of PLWH on combination ART (cART) was 45.7 ± 8.6 years, 42.9 ± 8.8 years among PLWH not on cART, and 44.9 ± 9.5 years among HIV negative controls of which 81.2%, 81.6% and 81.1% respectively were females. Prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis at the common carotid artery in the three groups was 67.6%, 66.7% and 62.4%, p = 0.43. Among PLWH, raised serum total cholesterol (OR 1.16, 95% CI: 1.00-1.35) and triglycerides (OR 1.32, 95% CI: 1.01-1.73) were significantly associated with subclinical atherosclerosis. Prevalence of vascular risk factors among PLWH on cART, PLWH cART naïve, and HIV negative controls respectively were as follows: dyslipidemia- 79.5%, 83.1%, and 73.5%, p = 0.04; hypertension- 40.2%, 23.4%, and 44.9%, p < 0.0001; central obesity-61.8%, 66.7%, and 78.2%, p < 0.0001; diabetes mellitus-6.8%, 5.5% and 4.9%, p = 0.53.

CONCLUSION

Overall while there is a high baseline prevalence of CVD risk factors in the Ghanaian population, serum lipid derangements appear to be more prevalent among HIV infected patients, and are linked to sub-clinical atherosclerosis. Future studies need to confirm these findings, explore the underlying pathophysiology, and optimize treatment strategies to avert untoward CVD outcomes.

Immunologic and virological response to ART among HIV infected individuals at a tertiary hospital in Ghana

Background

The need to study the outcome of Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) among Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infected individuals in Ghana, a sub-Saharan African country crucial in the era of the “Treat All” policy. The aim of this study was to analyze selected determinants of immunological and virological response to ART among HIV infected individuals in a tertiary facility in Cape Coast, Ghana.

Methods

An analytical cross sectional study with a retrospective component was conducted in the Cape Coast Teaching Hospital (CCTH), Central Region. Clients aged 18 years and above attending the HIV Clinics for ART and who were on ART for 6 months or more were recruited. The viral loads, CD4 count and other socio-demographic data were analyzed using STATA version 13 (STATA Corp, Texas USA). Descriptive analysis was done and presented with appropriate measures of central tendencies. In addition, bivariate and multivariate analysis was carried out with p value of 0.05 interpreted as evidence of association between variables.

Results

A total of 440 participants were included in this study with a mean age of 45.5 (±11.6) years. The mean CD4 count at baseline, 6 months on ART and currently at study recruitment were 215.1 cells/mm³ (±152.6), 386.6 cells/mm³ (±178.5), and 579.6 cells/mm³ (±203.0) respectively. After 6 months and 12 months on ART, the number who had achieved viral copies < 1000/ml were 149 (47.0%) and 368 (89.6%) respectively. There was strong evidence of an association between having CD4 count < 350 cells/mm³ after 6 months on ART and having a diagnosis of tuberculosis since HIV diagnosis (aOR 8.5, 95% CI 1.1–73.0, p = 0.05) and clients having plasma viral load > 1000 copies/ml after 6 months on ART (aOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.2–3.2, p = 0.01).

Conclusion

There was good response to ART among clients, high virological suppression and immunological recovery hence low rates of change to second line ART regimen in this cohort studied. With strict adherence to the national policy on HIV testing, management of positive clients and full implementation of the “Treat All” policy, Ghana could achieve, if nothing at all, the third “90, 90, 90” target by 2020.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3142-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Choice of initial antiretroviral drugs and treatment outcomes among HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) depends on the choice of regimens during initiation. Most evidences from developed countries indicated that there is difference between efavirenz (EFV) and nevirapine (NVP). However, the evidences are limited in resource poor countries particularly in Africa. Thus, this systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out to summarize reported long-term treatment outcomes among people on first line therapy in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

Observational studies that reported odds ratio, relative risk, hazard ratio, or standardized incidence ratio to compare risk of treatment failure among HIV/AIDS patients who initiated ART with EFV versus NVP were systematically searched. Searches were conducted using the MEDLINE database within PubMed, Google Scholar, HINARI, and Research Gates between 2007 and 2016. Information was extracted using standardized form. Pooled risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using random-effect, generic inverse variance method.

RESULT

A total of 6394 articles were identified, of which, 29 were eligible for review and abstraction in sub-Saharan Africa. Seventeen articles were used for the meta-analysis. Of a total of 121,092 independent study participants, 76,719 (63.36%) were females. Of these, 40,480 (33.43%) initiated with NVP containing regimen. Two studies did not report the median CD4 cell counts at initiation. Patients who have low CD4 cell counts initiated with EFV containing regimen. The pooled effect size indicated that treatment failure was reduced by 15%, 0.85 (95%CI: 0.75-0.98), and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) switch was reduced by 43%, 0.57 (95%CI: 0.37-0.89).

CONCLUSION

The risk of treatment failure and NNRTI switch were lower in patients who initiated with EFV than NVP-containing regimen. The review suggests that initiation of patients with EFV-containing regimen will reduce treatment failure and NNRTI switch.

Systematic review of statistically-derived models of immunological response in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction

In Sub-Saharan African (SSA) resource limited settings, Cluster of Differentiation 4 (CD4) counts continue to be used for clinical decision making in antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here, HIV-infected people often remain with CD4 counts <350 cells/μL even after 5 years of viral load suppression. Ongoing immunological monitoring is necessary. Due to varying statistical modeling methods comparing immune response to ART across different cohorts is difficult. We systematically review such models and detail the similarities, differences and problems.

Methods

‘Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses’ guidelines were used. Only studies of immune-response after ART initiation from SSA in adults were included. Data was extracted from each study and tabulated. Outcomes were categorized into 3 groups: ‘slope’, ‘survival’, and ‘asymptote’ models. Wordclouds were drawn wherein the frequency of variables occurring in the reviewed models is indicated by their size and color.

Results

69 covariates were identified in the final models of 35 studies. Effect sizes of covariates were not directly quantitatively comparable in view of the combination of differing variables and scale transformation methods across models. Wordclouds enabled the identification of qualitative and semi-quantitative covariate sets for each outcome category. Comparison across categories identified sex, baseline age, baseline log viral load, baseline CD4, ART initiation regimen and ART duration as a minimal consensus set.

Conclusion

Most models were different with respect to covariates included, variable transformations and scales, model assumptions, modelling strategies and reporting methods, even for the same outcomes. To enable comparison across cohorts, statistical models would benefit from the application of more uniform modelling techniques. Historic efforts have produced results that are anecdotal to individual cohorts only. This study was able to define ‘prior’ knowledge in the Bayesian sense. Such information has value for prospective modelling efforts.

Modeling Outcomes of First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy and Rate of CD4 Counts Change among a Cohort of HIV/AIDS Patients in Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Antiretroviral therapy has shown to be effective in reducing morbidity and mortality in patients infected with HIV for the past couples of decades. However, there remains a need to better understand the characteristics of long-term treatment outcomes in resource poor settings. The main aim of this study was to determine and compare the long-term response of patients on nevirapine and efavirenz based first line antiretroviral therapy regimen in Ethiopia.

Methods

Hospital based retrospective cohort study was conducted from January 2009 to December 2013 at University hospital located in Northwest Ethiopia. Human subject research approval for this study was received from University of Gondar Research Ethics Committee and the medical director of the hospital. Cox-proportional hazards model was used to assess the effect of baseline covariates on composite outcome and a semi-parametric mixed effect model was used to investigate CD4 counts response to treatments.

Results

A total of 2386 HIV/AIDS naive patients were included in this study. Nearly one-in-four patients experienced the events, of which death, lost to follow up, treatment substitution and discontinuation of Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors(NNRTI) accounted: 99 (26.8%), 122 (33.0%), 137 (37.0%) and 12 (3.2%), respectively. The hazard of composite outcome on nevirapine compared with efavirenz was 1.02(95%CI: 0.52-1.99) with p-value = 0.96. Similarly, the hazard of composite outcome on tenofovir and stavudine compared with zidovudine were 1.87 (95%CI: 1.52-2.32), p-value < 0.0001 and 1.72(95% CI: 1.22-2.32), p-value = 0.002, respectively. The rate of CD4 increase in response to treatment was high during the first 10 months and stabilized later.

Conclusions

This study revealed that treatment responses were comparable whether nevirapine or efavirenz was chosen to initiate antiretroviral therapy for HIV/AIDS patients in Ethiopia. There was significant difference on risk of composite outcome between patients who were initiated with Tenofovir containing ART regimen compared with zidovudine after controlling for NNRTI drug combinations.

The Factors Related to CD4+ T-Cell Recovery and Viral Suppression in Patients Who Have Low CD4+ T Cell Counts at the Initiation of HAART: A Retrospective Study of the National HIV Treatment Sub-Database of Zhejiang Province, China, 2014

Background

Since China has a unique system of delivering HIV care that includes all patients’ records. The factors related to CD4+ T-cell recovery and viral suppression in patients who have low CD4+ T cell counts at the initiation of HAART are understudied in the China despite subsequent virological suppression (viral load < 50 copies/mL) is unknown.

Methods

The authors conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the national HIV treatment sub-database of Zhejiang province to identify records of HIV+ patients. Patient records were included if they were ≥ 16 years of age, had an initial CD4 count < 100 cells/μL, were on continuous HAART for at least one year by the end of December 31, 2014; and achieved and maintained continued maximum virological suppression (MVS) (< 50 copies/ml) by 9 months after starting HAART. The primary endpoint for analysis was time to first CD4+ T cell count recovery (≥ 200, 350, 500 cells/μL). Cox proportional hazard regression was used to identify the risk factors for CD4+ T cell count recovery to key thresholds (200–350, 350–500, ≥ 500 cells/μL) by the time of last clinical follow-up (whichever occurred first), key thresholds (follow-up date for analysis), with patients still unable to reach the endpoints being censored by the end December 31, 2014 (follow-up date for analysis).

Results

Of the 918 patients who were included in the study, and the median CD4+ T cell count was 39 cells/μL at the baseline. At the end of follow-up, 727 (79.2%), 363 (39.5%) and 149 (16.2%) patients had return to ≥ 200, 350, and 500 cells/μL, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that the rate of patients with CD4+ count recovery to ≥ 200, 350, and 500 cells/μL after 1 year on HAART was 43.6, 8.6, and 2.5%, respectively, after 3 years on treatment was 90.8, 46.3, and 17.9%, respectively, and after 5 years on HAART was 97.1, 72.2, and 36.4%, respectively. The median time to return to 200–350, 350–500, ≥ 500cells/μL was 1.11, 3.33 and 6.91 years, respectively. Factors of age (aHR = 0.77, 95%CI 0.61–0.97), baseline CD4+ count (aHR = 1.60, 95%CI 1.37–1.86), initial regimens, changes in regimen (aHR = 0.58, 95%CI 0.49–0.69), and inclusion of a cotrimoxazole prophylaxis (aHR = 0.66, 95%CI 0.51–0.85) were associated with CD4+ T cell count recovery.

Conclusion

The proportion of patients with initially low CD4 counts after nine months of treatment and that achieved continuous virological suppression was greater than 70% for persons with CD4+ count ≥ 350. Conversely, only 35% of patients recovered to levels of 500 cells/μL after 5 years of treatment, and levels continued to rise significantly with further long-term HAART. Early HAART intervention will be necessary for achieving effective CD4+ T cell responses and optimal immunological function in HIV+ patients.

Incidence and risk factors for neuropsychiatric events among Ghanaian HIV patients on long-term non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based therapy

Background

Non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) is associated with neuropsychiatric toxicity. Little is known about the risk of short- and long-term neuropsychiatric toxicity in sub-Saharan Africa, where NNRTIs are widely used in first-line combination ART. This observational study assessed the risk of neuropsychiatric toxicity in Ghanaian patients starting first-line ART between 2004 and 2010 at a single centre.

Methods

In this retrospective observational study, frequencies of documented neuropsychiatric toxicity events were assessed and time to events calculated using a Kaplan–Meier analysis. Associations of neuropsychiatric toxicity with specific NNRTIs and other explanatory variables were examined using Cox proportional hazards modelling.

Results

Of 3999 patients initiating NNRTI-based ART, who were followed for a median of 30 (0.25–90) months (11,237 person years), 218 (5.5%) reported symptoms of neuropsychiatric toxicity at a rate of 21.4 events per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 18.8–24.2/1000 py). Events were more common with efavirenz than nevirapine (7.6% versus 2.4%), were usually reported within the first 2 months of ART initiation and persisted up to 84 months in a few patients. The most commonly reported neuropsychiatric adverse drug reactions were insomnia (50%), headaches (8%), dizziness (7%) and abnormal dreams (6%). The factors independently associated with neuropsychiatric toxicity were BMI < 16 kg/m² (aHR of 1.44 [95% CI, 1.02–2.03]) and use of efavirenz (aHR 3.29 [95% CI, 2.32–4.69]). Substitution of NNRTI on account of toxicity was reported in up to 17% of patients experiencing neuropsychiatric events.

Conclusions

NNRTI-related neuropsychiatric toxicity, mainly due to efavirenz, was infrequently documented in this Ghanaian cohort under routine clinical care settings. Regimens with more favourable tolerability will be needed as first-line agents in sub-Saharan Africa in the coming years.

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Millions of patients living with HIV AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa are initiated on an efavirenz-based combination antiretroviral therapy which is frequently associated with neuropsychiatric toxicity.

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In this retrospective study involving 3999 Ghanaian HIV-infected patients initiating therapy between 2004 and 2010, neuropsychiatric toxicity was documented in 5.5% with a higher incidence among efavirenz recipients (7.6%) compared with nevirapine recipients (2.4%).

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Peak neuropsychiatric adverse events occurred within the first two months upon initiating therapy with some few further events occurring as later on during 90 months of follow-up.

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Up to 17% of patients reporting neuropsychiatric toxicity had treatment modifications as a result.

Risk of deaths, AIDS-defining and non-AIDS defining events among Ghanaians on long-term combination antiretroviral therapy

Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has been widely available in Ghana since 2004. The aim of this cohort study was to assess the incidences of death, AIDS-defining events and non-AIDS defining events and associated risk factors amongst patients initiating cART in a large treatment centre. Clinical and laboratory data were extracted from clinic and hospital case notes for patients initiating cART between 2004 and 2010 and clinical events graded according to recognised definitions for AIDS, non-AIDS events (NADE) and death, with additional events not included in such definitions such as malaria also included. The cumulative incidence of events was calculated using Kaplan Meier analysis, and association of risk factors with events by Cox proportional hazards regression. Data were closed for analysis on 31st December, 2011 after a median follow-up of 30 months (range, 0-90 months). Amongst 4,039 patients starting cART at a median CD4 count of 133 cells/mm3, there were 324 (8%) confirmed deaths, with an event rate of 28.83 (95% CI 25.78-32.15) deaths per 1000-person follow-up years; the commonest established causes were pulmonary TB and gastroenteritis. There were 681 AIDS-defining events (60.60 [56.14-65.33] per 1000 person years) with pulmonary TB and chronic diarrhoea being the most frequent causes. Forty-one NADEs were recorded (3.64 [2.61-4.95] per 1000 person years), of which hepatic and cardiovascular events were most common. Other common events recorded outside these definitions included malaria (746 events) and respiratory tract infections (666 events). Overall 24% of patients were lost-to-follow-up. Alongside expected risk factors, stavudine use was associated with AIDS [adjusted HR of 1.08 (0.90-1.30)] and death (adjusted HR of 1.60 [1.21-2.11]). Whilst frequency of AIDS and deaths in this cohort were similar to those described in other sub-Saharan African cohorts, rates of NADEs were lower and far exceeded by events such as malaria and respiratory tract infections.

Long-term responses to first-line antiretroviral therapy in HIV and hepatitis B co-infection in Ghana

OBJECTIVES

To observe the long term response to first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV and hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infected patients in Ghana and explore predictors of poor clinical outcomes.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positive and negative patients receiving predominantly NNRTI-based ART with lamivudine plus either zidovudine or stavudine for up to seven years. Cox proportional hazards and Kaplan Meier survival analyses compared clinical outcomes and identified baseline characteristics predictive of poor outcomes. A mixed effects model compared changes in CD4 counts.

RESULTS

A total of 299 HBsAg-positive and 1869 HBsAg-negative patients started ART between 2004 and 2008. Over a median 35 months of follow-up, HBsAg-positive patients were more likely to die or default care than HBsAg-negative patients, aHR 1.36 (95% CI, 1.03-1.80). HBsAg-positive patients were also more likely to develop Grade 3/4 hepatotoxicity than HBsAg-negative patients, HR 1.99 (1.16-3.40) on survival analysis. There was no significant difference in CD4 responses between HBsAg-positive and HBsAg-negative patients.

CONCLUSIONS

HBsAg-positive patients are at significantly increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes after starting ART. Further studies are warranted to evaluate whether these risks remain now that tenofovir is becoming routinely available in Ghana.

Incidence and determinants of nevirapine and efavirenz-related skin rashes in West Africans: nevirapine's epitaph?

Non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) associated rash is common and frequently leads to discontinuation of NNRTIs. This study assessed the risk of developing rashes and discontinuing NNRTIs and associated factors in a large clinic in central Ghana. In this retrospective cohort study, clinical data were obtained in patients starting efavirenz or nevirapine between 2004-2010. Factors associated with rashes were explored using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model. Of 3,999 patients who started NNRTI-based ART, 281 (7.0%) experienced at least one episode of NNRTI-related rash with an incidence of 2.63 events/100 person-years, occurring in 10.2% and 5.6% of patients taking nevirapine and efavirenz respectively. Most rashes (94%) were grade 1 or 2 and were reported a median of 2 months following initiation of ART. In multivariate analysis developing a rash was associated with nevirapine use (aHR 1.67, 95% CI 1.28-2.10), female gender (aHR of 1.39, 95% CI 1.01-1.92) and lower baseline CD4 counts (aHR 0.88, 95% CI 0.82-0.95 per 50 cells/mm³ increment). Patients with nevirapine-associated rash were 11 times more likely to discontinue treatment as patients with efavirenz-associated rash. In contrast to findings in other studies, NNRTI-associated rashes in Ghanaians appear more common in patients with lower baseline CD4 counts. Given the increased frequency of rashes with nevirapine and subsequent discontinuations in many patients, along with other treatment-limiting toxicities, this provides further impetus for the replacement of nevirapine by efavirenz as the first-line NNRTI treatment of choice in Africa.