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German JC, Stirling A, Gorgone P, Brucker AR, Huang A, Dash S, Halpern DJ, Bhavsar NA, McPeek Hinz ER, Shannon RP, Spratt SE, Goldstein BA. Interactive visualization tool to understand and monitor health disparities in diabetes care and outcomes. J Clin Transl Sci 2024; 8:e102. [PMID: 39220819 PMCID: PMC11362627 DOI: 10.1017/cts.2024.542] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2023] [Revised: 04/04/2024] [Accepted: 05/06/2024] [Indexed: 09/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Objective Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) poses a significant public health challenge, with pronounced disparities in control and outcomes. Social determinants of health (SDoH) significantly contribute to these disparities, affecting healthcare access, neighborhood environments, and social context. We discuss the design, development, and use of an innovative web-based application integrating real-world data (electronic health record and geospatial files), to enhance comprehension of the impact of SDoH on T2 DM health disparities. Methods We identified a patient cohort with diabetes from the institutional Diabetes Registry (N = 67,699) within the Duke University Health System. Patient-level information (demographics, comorbidities, service utilization, laboratory results, and medications) was extracted to Tableau. Neighborhood-level socioeconomic status was assessed via the Area Deprivation Index (ADI), and geospatial files incorporated additional data related to points of interest (i.e., parks/green space). Interactive Tableau dashboards were developed to understand risk and contextual factors affecting diabetes management at the individual, group, neighborhood, and population levels. Results The Tableau-powered digital health tool offers dynamic visualizations, identifying T2DM-related disparities. The dashboard allows for the exploration of contextual factors affecting diabetes management (e.g., food insecurity, built environment) and possesses capabilities to generate targeted patient lists for personalized diabetes care planning. Conclusion As part of a broader health equity initiative, this application meets the needs of a diverse range of users. The interactive dashboard, incorporating clinical, sociodemographic, and environmental factors, enhances understanding at various levels and facilitates targeted interventions to address disparities in diabetes care and outcomes. Ultimately, this transformative approach aims to manage SDoH and improve patient care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jashalynn C. German
- Department of Medicine, Division of Endocrinology, Metabolism, and Nutrition, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Andrew Stirling
- Duke Health Technology Solutions, Duke University Health System, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Patti Gorgone
- Duke Health Technology Solutions, Duke University Health System, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Amanda R. Brucker
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Angel Huang
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Shwetha Dash
- Duke Health Technology Solutions, Duke University Health System, Durham, NC, USA
| | - David J. Halpern
- Department of Medicine, Division of General Internal Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA
- Duke Primary Care, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Nrupen A. Bhavsar
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA
- Department of Medicine, Division of General Internal Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Eugenia R. McPeek Hinz
- Duke Health Technology Solutions, Duke University Health System, Durham, NC, USA
- Duke University Health System, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Richard P. Shannon
- Duke University Health System, Durham, NC, USA
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Susan E. Spratt
- Department of Medicine, Division of Endocrinology, Metabolism, and Nutrition, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA
- Duke Population Health Management Office, Duke Health System, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Benjamin A. Goldstein
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA
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Ming DY, Zhao C, Tang X, Chung RJ, Rogers UA, Stirling A, Economou-Zavlanos NJ, Goldstein BA. Predictive Modeling to Identify Children With Complex Health Needs At Risk for Hospitalization. Hosp Pediatr 2023; 13:357-369. [PMID: 37092278 PMCID: PMC10158078 DOI: 10.1542/hpeds.2022-006861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/25/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Identifying children at high risk with complex health needs (CCHN) who have intersecting medical and social needs is challenging. This study's objectives were to (1) develop and evaluate an electronic health record (EHR)-based clinical predictive model ("model") for identifying high-risk CCHN and (2) compare the model's performance as a clinical decision support (CDS) to other CDS tools available for identifying high-risk CCHN. METHODS This retrospective cohort study included children aged 0 to 20 years with established care within a single health system. The model development/validation cohort included 33 months (January 1, 2016-September 30, 2018) and the testing cohort included 18 months (October 1, 2018-March 31, 2020) of EHR data. Machine learning methods generated a model that predicted probability (0%-100%) for hospitalization within 6 months. Model performance measures included sensitivity, positive predictive value, area under receiver-operator curve, and area under precision-recall curve. Three CDS rules for identifying high-risk CCHN were compared: (1) hospitalization probability ≥10% (model-predicted); (2) complex chronic disease classification (using Pediatric Medical Complexity Algorithm [PMCA]); and (3) previous high hospital utilization. RESULTS Model development and testing cohorts included 116 799 and 27 087 patients, respectively. The model demonstrated area under receiver-operator curve = 0.79 and area under precision-recall curve = 0.13. PMCA had the highest sensitivity (52.4%) and classified the most children as high risk (17.3%). Positive predictive value of the model-based CDS rule (19%) was higher than CDS based on the PMCA (1.9%) and previous hospital utilization (15%). CONCLUSIONS A novel EHR-based predictive model was developed and validated as a population-level CDS tool for identifying CCHN at high risk for future hospitalization.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Y. Ming
- Departments of Pediatrics
- Medicine
- Population Health Sciences
| | | | - Xinghong Tang
- Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Raritan, New Jersey
| | | | - Ursula A. Rogers
- Duke AI Health, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Andrew Stirling
- Duke AI Health, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina
| | | | - Benjamin A. Goldstein
- Departments of Pediatrics
- Population Health Sciences
- Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, and
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Goldstein BA, Cerullo M, Krishnamoorthy V, Blitz J, Mureebe L, Webster W, Dunston F, Stirling A, Gagnon J, Scales CD. Development and Performance of a Clinical Decision Support Tool to Inform Resource Utilization for Elective Operations. JAMA Netw Open 2020; 3:e2023547. [PMID: 33136133 PMCID: PMC7607444 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.23547] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Hospitals ceased most elective procedures during the height of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections. As hospitals begin to recommence elective procedures, it is necessary to have a means to assess how resource intensive a given case may be. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the development and performance of a clinical decision support tool to inform resource utilization for elective procedures. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In this prognostic study, predictive modeling was used on retrospective electronic health records data from a large academic health system comprising 1 tertiary care hospital and 2 community hospitals of patients undergoing scheduled elective procedures from January 1, 2017, to March 1, 2020. Electronic health records data on case type, patient demographic characteristics, service utilization history, comorbidities, and medications were and abstracted and analyzed. Data were analyzed from April to June 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Predicitons of hospital length of stay, intensive care unit length of stay, need for mechanical ventilation, and need to be discharged to a skilled nursing facility. These predictions were generated using the random forests algorithm. Predicted probabilities were turned into risk classifications designed to give assessments of resource utilization risk. RESULTS Data from the electronic health records of 42 199 patients from 3 hospitals were abstracted for analysis. The median length of stay was 2.3 days (range, 1.3-4.2 days), 6416 patients (15.2%) were admitted to the intensive care unit, 1624 (3.8%) received mechanical ventilation, and 2843 (6.7%) were discharged to a skilled nursing facility. Predictive performance was strong with an area under the receiver operator characteristic ranging from 0.76 to 0.93. Sensitivity of the high-risk and medium-risk groupings was set at 95%. The negative predictive value of the low-risk grouping was 99%. We integrated the models into a daily refreshing Tableau dashboard to guide decision-making. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The clinical decision support tool is currently being used by surgical leadership to inform case scheduling. This work shows the importance of a learning health care environment in surgical care, using quantitative modeling to guide decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin A. Goldstein
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Surgical Center for Outcomes Research, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Marcelo Cerullo
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Vijay Krishnamoorthy
- Department of Anesthesiology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Critical Care and Perioperative Population Health Research Unit, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Jeanna Blitz
- Department of Anesthesiology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Leila Mureebe
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Wendy Webster
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Department of Neurosurgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Department of Head & Neck Surgery and Communication Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Felicia Dunston
- Duke Health Technology Solutions, Duke University Health System, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Andrew Stirling
- Duke Health Technology Solutions, Duke University Health System, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Jennifer Gagnon
- Duke Health Technology Solutions, Duke University Health System, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Charles D. Scales
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Surgical Center for Outcomes Research, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
- Department of Surgery, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
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