Boosted trees to predict pneumonia, growth, and meat percentage of growing-finishing pigs1

Adding value to food chain information: using data on pig welfare and antimicrobial use on-farm to predict meat inspection outcomes

BACKGROUND

Using Food Chain Information data to objectively identify high-risk animals entering abattoirs can represent an important step forward towards improving on-farm animal welfare. We aimed to develop and evaluate the performance of classification models, using Gradient Boosting Machine algorithms that utilise accurate longitudinal on-farm data on pig health and welfare to predict condemnations, pluck lesions and low cold carcass weight at slaughter.

RESULTS

The accuracy of the models was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC). The AUC for the prediction models for pneumonia, dorsocaudal pleurisy, cranial pleurisy, pericarditis, partial and total condemnations, and low cold carcass weight varied from 0.54 for pneumonia and 0.67 for low cold carcass weight. For dorsocaudal pleurisy, ear lesions assessed on pigs aged 12 weeks and antimicrobial treatments (AMT) were the most important prediction variables. Similarly, the most important variable for the prediction of cranial pleurisy was the number of AMT. In the case of pericarditis, ear lesions assessed both at week 12 and 14 were the most important variables and accounted for 33% of the Bernoulli loss reduction. For predicting partial and total condemnations, the presence of hernias on week 18 and lameness on week 12 accounted for 27% and 14% of the Bernoulli loss reduction, respectively. Finally, AMT (37%) and ear lesions assessed on week 12 (15%) were the most important variables for predicting pigs with low cold carcass weight.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings from our study show that on farm assessments of animal-based welfare outcomes and information on antimicrobial treatments have a modest predictive power in relation to the different meat inspection outcomes assessed. New research following the same group of pigs longitudinally from a larger number of farms supplying different slaughterhouses is required to confirm that on farm assessments can add value to Food Chain Information reports.

Dairy management practices associated with multi-drug resistant fecal commensals and Salmonella in cull cows: a machine learning approach

Background

Understanding the effects of herd management practices on the prevalence of multidrug-resistant pathogenic Salmonella and commensals Enterococcus spp. and Escherichia coli in dairy cattle is key in reducing antibacterial resistant infections in humans originating from food animals. Our objective was to explore the herd and cow level features associated with the multi-drug resistant, and resistance phenotypes shared between Salmonella, E. coli and Enterococcus spp. using machine learning algorithms.

Methods

Randomly collected fecal samples from cull dairy cows from six dairy farms in central California were tested for multi-drug resistance phenotypes of Salmonella, E. coli and Enterococcus spp. Using data on herd management practices collected from a questionnaire, we built three machine learning algorithms (decision tree classifier, random forest, and gradient boosting decision trees) to predict the cows shedding multidrug-resistant Salmonella and commensal bacteria.

Results

The decision tree classifier identified rolling herd average milk production as an important feature for predicting fecal shedding of multi-drug resistance in Salmonella or commensal bacteria. The number of culled animals, monthly culling frequency and percentage, herd size, and proportion of Holstein cows in the herd were found to be influential herd characteristics predicting fecal shedding of multidrug-resistant phenotypes based on random forest models for Salmonella and commensal bacteria. Gradient boosting models showed that higher culling frequency and monthly culling percentages were associated with fecal shedding of multidrug resistant Salmonella or commensal bacteria. In contrast, an overall increase in the number of culled animals on a culling day showed a negative trend with classifying a cow as shedding multidrug-resistant bacteria. Increasing rolling herd average milk production and spring season were positively associated with fecal shedding of multidrug- resistant Salmonella. Only six individual cows were detected sharing tetracycline resistance phenotypes between Salmonella and either of the commensal bacteria.

Discussion

Percent culled and culling rate reflect the increase in culling over time adjusting for herd size and were associated with shedding multidrug resistant bacteria. In contrast, number culled was negatively associated with shedding multidrug resistant bacteria which may reflect producer decisions to prioritize the culling of otherwise healthy but low-producing cows based on milk or beef prices (with respect to dairy beef), amongst other factors. Using a data-driven suite of machine learning algorithms we identified generalizable and distant associations between antimicrobial resistance in Salmonella and fecal commensal bacteria, that can help develop a producer-friendly and data-informed risk assessment tool to reduce shedding of multidrug-resistant bacteria in cull dairy cows.

Machine learning to further improve the decision which boar ejaculates to process into artificial insemination doses

Current artificial insemination (AI) laboratory practices assess semen quality of each boar ejaculate to decide which ones to process into AI doses. This decision is aided with two, world-wide used, motility parameters that come available through computer assisted semen analysis (CASA). This decision process, however, still results in AI doses with variable and sometimes suboptimal fertility outcomes (e.g., small litter size). The hypothesis was that the decision which ejaculates to process into AI doses can be improved by adding more data from CASA systems, and data from other sources, in combination with a data-driven model. Available data consisted of ejaculates that passed the initial decision, and thus, were processed into AI doses and used to inseminate sows. Data were divided into a training set (6793 records) and a validation set (1191 records) for model development, and an independent test set (1434 records) for performance assessment. Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) models were developed to predict four fertility phenotypes of interest (gestation length, total number born, number born alive, and number of stillborn piglets). Each fertility phenotype was considered as a numeric and as a binary outcome parameter, totaling to eight different fertility phenotypes. Data used to further improve the decision process originated from four sources: 1) CASA information, 2) boar ejaculate information, 3) breeding value estimations, and 4) weather information. These data were used to create seven prediction sets, where each new set added parameters to the ones included in the previous set. The GBM models predicted fertility phenotypes with low correlations (for numeric phenotypes) and area under the curve values (for binary phenotypes) on the test data. Hence, results demonstrated that a combination of more data and GBM did not enable further improvement of the AI dose quality checks, resulting in the rejection of our hypothesis. However, our study revealed parameters affecting boar ejaculate fertility which were not used in today's decision process. These parameters (listed in the top 10 in at least four GBM models) included one parameter associated with boar ejaculate information, two with breeding value estimations, five with CASA information, and one with weather information. These parameters, therefore, should be further investigated for their potential value when assessing the quality of boar ejaculates in daily routine AI doses processing.