Occurrence of mesocarnivores in montane sky islands: How spatial and temporal overlap informs rabies management in a regional hotspot

Interspecific interactions among mesocarnivores can influence community dynamics and resource partitioning. Insights into these interactions can enhance understanding of local ecological processes that have impacts on pathogen transmission, such as the rabies lyssavirus. Host species ecology can provide an important baseline for disease management strategies especially in biologically diverse ecosystems and heterogeneous landscapes. We used a mesocarnivore guild native to the southwestern United States, a regional rabies hotspot, that are prone to rabies outbreaks as our study system. Gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), bobcats (Lynx rufus), and coyotes (Canis latrans) share large portions of their geographic ranges and can compete for resources, occupy similar niches, and influence population dynamics of each other. We deployed 80 cameras across two mountain ranges in Arizona, stratified by vegetation type. We used two-stage modeling to gain insight into species occurrence and co-occurrence patterns. There was strong evidence for the effects of elevation, season, and temperature impacting detection probability of all four species, with understory height and canopy cover also influencing gray foxes and skunks. For all four mesocarnivores, a second stage multi-species co-occurrence model better explained patterns of detection than the single-species occurrence model. These four species are influencing the space use of each other and are likely competing for resources seasonally. We did not observe spatial partitioning between these competitors, likely due to an abundance of cover and food resources in the biologically diverse system we studied. From our results we can draw inferences on community dynamics to inform rabies management in a regional hotspot. Understanding environmental factors in disease hotspots can provide useful information to develop more reliable early-warning systems for viral outbreaks. We recommend that disease management focus on delivering oral vaccine baits onto the landscape when natural food resources are less abundant, specifically during the two drier seasons in Arizona (pre-monsoon spring and autumn) to maximize intake by all mesocarnivores.

Dynamics of animal joint space use: a novel application of a time series approach

BACKGROUND

Animal use is a dynamic phenomenon, emerging from the movements of animals responding to a changing environment. Interactions between animals are reflected in patterns of joint space use, which are also dynamic. High frequency sampling associated with GPS telemetry provides detailed data that capture space use through time. However, common analyses treat joint space use as static over relatively long periods, masking potentially important changes. Furthermore, linking temporal variation in interactions to covariates remains cumbersome. We propose a novel method for analyzing the dynamics of joint space use that permits straightforward incorporation of covariates. This method builds upon tools commonly used by researchers, including kernel density estimators, utilization distribution intersection metrics, and extensions of linear models.

METHODS

We treat the intersection of the utilization distributions of two individuals as a time series. The series is linked to covariates using copula-based marginal beta regression, an alternative to generalized linear models. This approach accommodates temporal autocorrelation and the bounded nature of the response variable. Parameters are easily estimated with maximum likelihood and trend and error structures can be modeled separately. We demonstrate the approach by analyzing simulated data from two hypothetical individuals with known utilization distributions, as well as field data from two coyotes (Canis latrans) responding to appearance of a carrion resource in southern Texas.

RESULTS

Our analysis of simulated data indicated reasonably precise estimates of joint space use can be achieved with commonly used GPS sampling rates (s.e.=0.029 at 150 locations per interval). Our analysis of field data identified an increase in spatial interactions between the coyotes that persisted for the duration of the study, beyond the expected duration of the carrion resource. Our analysis also identified a period of increased spatial interactions before appearance of the resource, which would not have been identified by previous methods.

CONCLUSIONS

We present a new approach to the analysis of joint space use through time, building upon tools commonly used by ecologists, that permits a new level of detail in the analysis of animal interactions. The results are easily interpretable and account for the nuances of bounded serial data in an elegant way.