Modeling the Sensitivity of Blacklegged Ticks (Ixodes scapularis) to Temperature and Land Cover in the Northeastern United States

Modeling of Control Efforts against Rhipicephalus sanguineus, the Vector of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever in Sonora Mexico

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a significant health problem in Sonora, Mexico. The tick vector, Rhipicephalus sanguineus, feeds almost exclusively on domestic dogs that, in this region, also serve as the reservoir for the tick-borne pathogen, Rickettsia rickettsii. A process-based mathematical model of the life cycle of R. sanguineus was developed to predict combinations of insecticidal dog collars and long-lasting insecticidal wall treatments resulting in suppression of indoor tick populations. Because of a high burden of RMSF in a rural community near the Sonora state capital of Hermosillo, a test area was treated with a combination of insecticidal dog collars and long-lasting insecticidal wall treatments from March 2018 to April 2019, with subsequent reduction in RMSF cases and deaths. An estimated 80% of the dogs in the area had collars applied and 15% of the houses were treated. Data on tick abundance on walls and dogs, collected during this intervention, were used to parameterize the model. Model results show a variety of treatment combinations likely to be as successful as the one carried out in the test community.

Associating Land Cover Changes with Patterns of Incidences of Climate-Sensitive Infections: An Example on Tick-Borne Diseases in the Nordic Area

Some of the climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) affecting humans are zoonotic vector-borne diseases, such as Lyme borreliosis (BOR) and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), mostly linked to various species of ticks as vectors. Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of tick species, their hosts, and the prevalence of pathogens are likely to change. A recent increase in human incidences of these CSIs in the Nordic regions might indicate an expansion of the range of ticks and hosts, with vegetation changes acting as potential predictors linked to habitat suitability. In this paper, we study districts in Fennoscandia and Russia where incidences of BOR and TBE have steadily increased over the 1995-2015 period (defined as 'Well Increasing districts'). This selection is taken as a proxy for increasing the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens due to increased habitat suitability for ticks and hosts, thus simplifying the multiple factors that explain incidence variations. This approach allows vegetation types and strengths of correlation specific to the WI districts to be differentiated and compared with associations found over all districts. Land cover types and their changes found to be associated with increasing human disease incidence are described, indicating zones with potential future higher risk of these diseases. Combining vegetation cover and climate variables in regression models shows the interplay of biotic and abiotic factors linked to CSI incidences and identifies some differences between BOR and TBE. Regression model projections up until 2070 under different climate scenarios depict possible CSI progressions within the studied area and are consistent with the observed changes over the past 20 years.

Dilution and amplification effects in Lyme disease: Modeling the effects of reservoir-incompetent hosts on Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto transmission

The literature on Lyme disease includes a lively debate about the paradoxical role of changing deer populations. A decrease in the number of deer will both (1) reduce the incidence of Lyme disease by decreasing the host populations for ticks and therefore tick populations, and (2) enhance the incidence of Lyme disease by offering fewer reservoir-incompetent hosts for ticks, forcing the vector to choose reservoir-competent, and therefore possibly diseased, hosts to feed on. A review of field studies exploring the net impact of changing deer populations shows mixed results. In this manuscript, we investigate the hypothesis that the balance of these two responses to changing deer populations depends on the relative population sizes of reservoir-competent vs. reservoir-incompetent hosts and the presence of host preference in larval and adult stages. A temperature driven seasonal model of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (cause of Lyme disease) transmission among three host types (reservoir-competent infected and uninfected hosts, and reservoir-incompetent hosts) is constructed as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model, which produces biologically reasonable results for both the tick vector Ixodes scapularis Say 1921 and the hosts, is used to investigate the effects of reservoir-incompetent host removal on both tick populations and disease prevalence for various relative population sizes of reservoir-competent hosts vs. reservoir-incompetent hosts. In summary, the simulation results show that the model with host preference appears to be more accurate than the one with no host preference. Given these results, we found that removal of adult I. scapularis(Say) hosts is likely to reduce questing nymph populations. At very low levels questing adult abundance may rise with lack of adult hosts. There is a dilution effect at low reservoir-competent host populations and there is an amplification effect at high reservoir-competent host populations.