Modeling the Response of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Kenya Highlands to a Rise in Mean Annual Temperature

Global consumption and international trade in deforestation-associated commodities could influence malaria risk

Deforestation can increase the transmission of malaria. Here, we build upon the existing link between malaria risk and deforestation by investigating how the global demand for commodities that increase deforestation can also increase malaria risk. We use a database of trade relationships to link the consumption of deforestation-implicated commodities in developed countries to estimates of country-level malaria risk in developing countries. We estimate that about 20% of the malaria risk in deforestation hotspots is driven by the international trade of deforestation-implicated export commodities, such as timber, wood products, tobacco, cocoa, coffee and cotton. By linking malaria risk to final consumers of commodities, we contribute information to support demand-side policy measures to complement existing malaria control interventions, with co-benefits for reducing deforestation and forest disturbance.