Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

Economic evaluation of personalised versus conventional risk assessment for women who have undergone testing for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer genes: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The management of women with germline pathogenic variants (GPVs) in breast (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) susceptibility genes is focused on surveillance and risk-reducing surgery/medication. Most women are assigned an average range of risk and treated accordingly, but it is possible to personalise this. Here, we explore the economic impact of risk personalisation.

METHOD

We compared two strategies for risk stratification for female participants: conventional risk assessment (CRA), which only involves information from genetic testing and personalised risk assessment (PRA), using genetic and non-genetic risk modifiers. Three different versions of PRA were compared, which were combinations of polygenic risk score and questionnaire-based factors. A patient-level Markov model was designed to estimate the overall National Health Service cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) after risk assessment. Results were given for 20 different groups of women based on their GPV status and family history.

RESULTS

Across the 20 scenarios, the results showed that PRA was cost-effective compared with CRA using a £20 000 per QALY threshold in women with a GPV in PALB2 who have OC or BC+OC family history, and women with a GPV in ATM, CHEK2, RAD51C or RAD51D. For women with a GPV in BRCA1 or BRCA2, women with no pathogenic variant and women with a GPV in PALB2 who have unknown family history or BC family history, CRA was more cost-effective. PRA was cost-effective compared with CRA in specific situations predominantly associated with moderate-risk BC GPVs (RAD51C/RAD51D/CHEK2/ATM), while CRA was cost-effective compared with PRA predominantly with high-risk BC GPVs (BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2).

CONCLUSION

PRA was cost-effective in specific situations compared with CRA in the UK for assessment of women with or without GPVs in BC and OC susceptibility genes.

Risk of Cervical Carcinoma After Unfavorable Behavior and High Genetic Risk in the UK Biobank: A Prospective Nested Case-Control Study

Background: Previous studies have established a general understanding of the association between risky sexual behavior, genetic risk, and cervical carcinoma. However, these studies were conducted several years ago and lack systematic analysis using high-quality and population-based data. Methods: We conducted a prospective nested case-control study to identify risky behaviors and developed a behavior score. Combining the behavior score and genetic risk, we evaluated the effect of sexual and reproductive behavior and PRS on cervical carcinoma through the developed conditional logistic regression models. Results: We verified increased carcinoma risk in individuals with early sexual intercourse (OR: 1.41 [95% CI 1.09 to 1.83], p = 0.0083), non-monogamous sexual partners (OR: 3.13 [95% CI 2.15 to 4.57], p < 0.0001), three or more live births (OR: 1.44 [95% CI 1.12 to 1.84], p = 0.0040), and high PRS (polygenic risk score) (top 25% of PRS, OR: 1.58 [95% CI 1.15 to 2.16], p = 0.0044). The unfavorable sexual and reproductive behavior score we developed was linked to a 151% increased risk (OR: 2.51 [95% CI 1.79 to 3.52], p < 0.0001) after adjusting for PRS. Women with both unfavorable behavior and high genetic risk had a 5.5-fold increased cervical carcinoma risk (OR: 5.45 [95% CI 2.72 to 10.95], p < 0.0001) compared to individuals with favorable behavior and low genetic risk. Conclusions: Unfavorable sexual and reproductive behavior increases the risk of cervical carcinoma, especially in those with a high genetic risk. These findings encourage us to adhere to a healthy sexual and reproductive pattern.

Evaluation of Multiple Breast Cancer Polygenic Risk Score Panels in Women of Latin American Heritage

BACKGROUND

A substantial portion of the genetic predisposition for breast cancer is explained by multiple common genetic variants of relatively small effect. A subset of these variants, which have been identified mostly in individuals of European (EUR) and Asian ancestries, have been combined to construct a polygenic risk score (PRS) to predict breast cancer risk, but the prediction accuracy of existing PRSs in Hispanic/Latinx individuals (H/L) remain relatively low. We assessed the performance of several existing PRS panels with and without addition of H/L-specific variants among self-reported H/L women.

METHODS

PRS performance was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression and the area under the ROC curve.

RESULTS

Both EUR and Asian PRSs performed worse in H/L samples compared with original reports. The best EUR PRS performed better than the best Asian PRS in pooled H/L samples. EUR PRSs had decreased performance with increasing Indigenous American (IA) ancestry, while Asian PRSs had increased performance with increasing IA ancestry. The addition of two H/L SNPs increased performance for all PRSs, most notably in the samples with high IA ancestry, and did not impact the performance of PRSs in individuals with lower IA ancestry.

CONCLUSIONS

A single PRS that incorporates risk variants relevant to the multiple ancestral components of individuals from Latin America, instead of a set of ancestry-specific panels, could be used in clinical practice.

IMPACT

The results highlight the importance of population-specific discovery and suggest a straightforward approach to integrate ancestry-specific variants into PRSs for clinical application.

Hereditary Breast Cancer: Comprehensive Risk Assessment and Prevention Strategies

Women carrying pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in moderate- or high-penetrance genes have an increased risk of developing breast cancer. However, most P/LP variants associated with breast cancer risk show incomplete penetrance. Age, gender, family history, polygenic risk, lifestyle, reproductive, hormonal, and environmental factors can affect the expressivity and penetrance of the disease. However, there are gaps in translating how individual genomic variation affects phenotypic presentation. The expansion of criteria for genetic testing and the increasing utilization of comprehensive genetic panels may enhance the identification of individuals carrying P/LP variants linked to hereditary breast cancer. Individualized risk assessment could facilitate the implementation of personalized risk-reduction strategies for these individuals. Preventive interventions encompass lifestyle modifications, chemoprevention, enhanced surveillance through breast imaging, and risk-reducing surgeries. This review addresses the current literature's inconsistencies and limitations, particularly regarding risk factors and the intensity of preventive strategies for women with P/LP variants in moderate- and high-penetrance genes. In addition, it synthesizes the latest evidence on risk assessment and primary and secondary prevention in women at high risk of breast cancer.

HLA gene polymorphism is a modifier of age-related breast cancer penetrance in carriers of BRCA1 pathogenic alleles

PURPOSE

Female carriers of germline BRCA1 mutations almost invariably develop breast cancer (BC); however, the age at onset is a subject of variation. We hypothesized that the age-related penetrance of BRCA1 mutations may depend on inherited variability in the host immune system.

METHODS

Next-generation sequencing was utilized for genotyping of HLA class I/II genes (HLA-A, HLA-B, HLA-C, HLA-DPB1, HLA-DQB1, and HLA-DRB1/3/4/5) in patients with BRCA1-associated BC with early (< / = 38 years, n = 215) and late (> / = 58 years, n = 108) age at onset.

RESULTS

HLA-DQB1*06:03P prevalence was higher in the late-onset group due to the excess of allele carriers [25/108 (23.1%) vs. 22/215 (10.2%); OR 2.96, p < 0.001]. For all HLA-I loci, there was a trend toward an increase in the number of homozygotes in the early-onset group. This trend reached statistical significance for the HLA-A [14.4% vs. 6.5%, p = 0.037; OR 2.4, p = 0.042]. The frequencies of HLA-DPB1, HLA-DQB1, and HLA-DRB1/3/4/5 homozygous genotypes did not differ between young-onset and late-onset patients. The maximum degree of homozygosity detected in this study was 6 out of 7 HLA class I/II loci; all six carriers of these genotypes were diagnosed with BC at the age < / = 38 years [OR 6.97, p = 0.187].

CONCLUSION

HLA polymorphism may play a role in modifying the penetrance of BRCA1 pathogenic variants. Certain HLA alleles or HLA homozygosity may modify the risk of BC in BRCA1 carriers.

Integrative genetic analysis: cornerstone of precision psychiatry

The role of genetic testing in the domain of neurodevelopmental and psychiatric disorders (NPDs) is gradually changing from providing etiological explanation for the presence of NPD phenotypes to also identifying young individuals at high risk of developing NPDs before their clinical manifestation. In clinical practice, the latter implies a shift towards the availability of individual genetic information predicting a certain liability to develop an NPD (e.g., autism, intellectual disability, psychosis etc.). The shift from mostly a posteriori explanation to increasingly a priori risk prediction is the by-product of the systematic implementation of whole exome or genome sequencing as part of routine diagnostic work-ups during the neonatal and prenatal periods. This rapid uptake of genetic testing early in development has far-reaching consequences for psychiatry: Whereas until recently individuals would come to medical attention because of signs of abnormal developmental and/or behavioral symptoms, increasingly, individuals are presented based on genetic liability for NPD outcomes before NPD symptoms emerge. This novel clinical scenario, while challenging, also creates opportunities for research on prevention interventions and precision medicine approaches. Here, we review why optimization of individual risk prediction is a key prerequisite for precision medicine in the sphere of NPDs, as well as the technological and statistical methods required to achieve this ambition.

Development of a Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model Integrating Monogenic, Polygenic, and Epidemiologic Risk

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer has been associated with monogenic, polygenic, and epidemiologic (clinical, reproductive, and lifestyle) risk factors, but studies evaluating the combined effects of these factors have been limited.

METHODS

We extended previous work in breast cancer risk modeling, incorporating pathogenic variants (PV) in six breast cancer predisposition genes and a 105-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS), to include an epidemiologic risk score (ERS) in a sample of non-Hispanic White women drawn from prospective cohorts and population-based case-control studies, with 23,518 cases and 22,832 controls, from the Cancer Risk Estimates Related to Susceptibility (CARRIERS) Consortium.

RESULTS

The model predicts 4.4-fold higher risk of breast cancer for postmenopausal women with no predisposition PV and median PRS, but with the highest versus lowest ERS. Overall, women with CHEK2 PVs had >20% lifetime risk of breast cancer. However, 15.6% of women with CHEK2 PVs and a family history of breast cancer, and 45.1% of women with CHEK2 PVs but without a family history of breast cancer, had low (<20%) predicted lifetime risk and thus were below the threshold for MRI screening. CHEK2 PV carriers at the 10th percentile of the joint distribution of ERS and PRS, without a family history of breast cancer, had a predicted lifetime risk similar to the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

These results illustrate that an ERS, alone and combined with the PRS, can contribute to clinically relevant risk stratification.

IMPACT

Integrating monogenic, polygenic, and epidemiologic risk factors in breast cancer risk prediction models may inform personalized screening and prevention efforts.

A systematic evaluation of the performance and properties of the UK Biobank Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) Release

We assess the UK Biobank (UKB) Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) Release, a set of PRSs for 28 diseases and 25 quantitative traits that has been made available on the individuals in UKB, using a unified pipeline for PRS evaluation. We also release a benchmarking software tool to enable like-for-like performance evaluation for different PRSs for the same disease or trait. Extensive benchmarking shows the PRSs in the UKB Release to outperform a broad set of 76 published PRSs. For many of the diseases and traits we also validate the PRS algorithms in a separate cohort (100,000 Genomes Project). The availability of PRSs for 53 traits on the same set of individuals also allows a systematic assessment of their properties, and the increased power of these PRSs increases the evidence for their potential clinical benefit.

Population-specific validation and comparison of the performance of 77- and 313-variant polygenic risk scores for breast cancer risk prediction

BACKGROUND

The polygenic risk score (PRS) allows the quantification of the polygenic effect of many low-penetrance alleles on the risk of breast cancer (BC). This study aimed to evaluate the performance of two sets comprising 77 or 313 low-penetrance loci (PRS77 and PRS313) in patients with BC in the Czech population.

METHODS

In a retrospective case-control study, variants were genotyped from both the PRS77 and PRS313 sets in 1329 patients with BC and 1324 noncancer controls, all women without germline pathogenic variants in BC predisposition genes. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated according to the categorical PRS in individual deciles. Weighted Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) increase in PRS.

RESULTS

The distributions of standardized PRSs in patients and controls were significantly different (p < 2.2 × 10-16) with both sets. PRS313 outperformed PRS77 in categorical and continuous PRS analyses. For patients in the highest 2.5% of PRS313, the risk reached an OR of 3.05 (95% CI, 1.66-5.89; p = 1.76 × 10-4). The continuous risk was estimated as an HRper SD of 1.64 (95% CI, 1.49-1.81; p < 2.0 × 10-16), which resulted in an absolute risk of 21.03% at age 80 years for individuals in the 95th percentile of PRS313. Discordant categorization into PRS deciles was observed in 248 individuals (9.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Both PRS77 and PRS313 are able to stratify individuals according to their BC risk in the Czech population. PRS313 shows better discriminatory ability. The results support the potential clinical utility of using PRS313 in individualized BC risk prediction.

Using polygenic risk modification to improve breast cancer prevention: study protocol for the PRiMo multicentre randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Established personal and familial risk factors contribute collectively to a woman's risk of breast or ovarian cancer. Existing clinical services offer genetic testing for pathogenic variants in high-risk genes to investigate these risks but recent information on the role of common genomic variants, in the form of a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS), has provided the potential to further personalise breast and ovarian cancer risk assessment. Data from cohort studies support the potential of an integrated risk assessment to improve targeted risk management but experience of this approach in clinical practice is limited.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The polygenic risk modification trial is an Australian multicentre prospective randomised controlled trial of integrated risk assessment including personal and family risk factors with inclusion of breast and ovarian PRS vs standard care. The study will enrol women, unaffected by cancer, undergoing predictive testing at a familial cancer clinic for a pathogenic variant in a known breast cancer (BC) or ovarian cancer (OC) predisposition gene (BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, CHEK2, ATM, RAD51C, RAD51D). Array-based genotyping will be used to generate breast cancer (313 SNP) and ovarian cancer (36 SNP) PRS. A suite of materials has been developed for the trial including an online portal for patient consent and questionnaires, and a clinician education programme to train healthcare providers in the use of integrated risk assessment. Long-term follow-up will evaluate differences in the assessed risk and management advice, patient risk management intentions and adherence, patient-reported experience and outcomes, and the health service implications of personalised risk assessment.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre and at all participating centres. Study findings will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations, and directly to participants.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12621000009819.

Limitations in next-generation sequencing-based genotyping of breast cancer polygenic risk score loci

Considering polygenic risk scores (PRSs) in individual risk prediction is increasingly implemented in genetic testing for hereditary breast cancer (BC) based on next-generation sequencing (NGS). To calculate individual BC risks, the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) with the inclusion of the BCAC 313 or the BRIDGES 306 BC PRS is commonly used. The PRS calculation depends on accurately reproducing the variant allele frequencies (AFs) and, consequently, the distribution of PRS values anticipated by the algorithm. Here, the 324 loci of the BCAC 313 and the BRIDGES 306 BC PRS were examined in population-specific database gnomAD and in real-world data sets of five centers of the German Consortium for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (GC-HBOC), to determine whether these expected AFs can be reproduced by NGS-based genotyping. Four PRS loci were non-existent in gnomAD v3.1.2 non-Finnish Europeans, further 24 loci showed noticeably deviating AFs. In real-world data, between 11 and 23 loci were reported with noticeably deviating AFs, and were shown to have effects on final risk prediction. Deviations depended on the sequencing approach, variant caller and calling mode (forced versus unforced) employed. Therefore, this study demonstrates the necessity to apply quality assurance not only in terms of sequencing coverage but also observed AFs in a sufficiently large cohort, when implementing PRSs in a routine diagnostic setting. Furthermore, future PRS design should be guided by the technical reproducibility of expected AFs across commonly used genotyping methods, especially NGS, in addition to the observed effect sizes.

Integrating genomic variants and developmental milestones to predict cognitive and adaptive outcomes in autistic children

Although the first signs of autism are often observed as early as 18-36 months of age, there is a broad uncertainty regarding future development, and clinicians lack predictive tools to identify those who will later be diagnosed with co-occurring intellectual disability (ID). Here, we developed predictive models of ID in autistic children (n=5,633 from three cohorts), integrating different classes of genetic variants alongside developmental milestones. The integrated model yielded an AUC ROC=0.65, with this predictive performance cross-validated and generalised across cohorts. Positive predictive values reached up to 55%, accurately identifying 10% of ID cases. The ability to stratify the probabilities of ID using genetic variants was up to twofold greater in individuals with delayed milestones compared to those with typical development. These findings underscore the potential of models in neurodevelopmental medicine that integrate genomics and clinical observations to predict outcomes and target interventions.

Germline Genetic Testing for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer: Current Concepts in Risk Evaluation

Our understanding of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer has significantly improved over the past two decades. In addition to BRCA1/2, pathogenic variants in several other DNA-repair genes have been shown to increase the risks of breast and ovarian cancer. The magnitude of cancer risk is impacted not only by the gene involved, but also by family history of cancer, polygenic risk scores, and, in certain genes, pathogenic variant type or location. While estimates of breast and ovarian cancer risk associated with pathogenic variants are available, these are predominantly based on studies of high-risk populations with young age at diagnosis of cancer, multiple primary cancers, or family history of cancer. More recently, breast cancer risk for germline pathogenic variant carriers has been estimated from population-based studies. Here, we provide a review of the field of germline genetic testing and risk evaluation for hereditary breast and ovarian cancers in high-risk and population-based settings.

A comprehensive analysis of germline predisposition to early-onset ovarian cancer

The subset of ovarian cancer (OC) diagnosed ≤ 30yo represents a distinct subgroup exhibiting disparities from late-onset OC in many aspects, including indefinite germline cancer predisposition. We performed DNA/RNA-WES with HLA-typing, PRS assessment and survival analysis in 123 early-onset OC-patients compared to histology/stage-matched late-onset and unselected OC-patients, and population-matched controls. Only 6/123(4.9%) early-onset OC-patients carried a germline pathogenic variant (GPV) in high-penetrance OC-predisposition genes. Nevertheless, our comprehensive germline analysis of early-onset OC-patients revealed two divergent trajectories of potential germline susceptibility. Firstly, overrepresentation analysis highlighted a connection to breast cancer (BC) that was supported by the CHEK2 GPV enrichment in early-onset OC(p = 1.2 × 10-4), and the presumably BC-specific PRS313, which successfully stratified early-onset OC-patients from controls(p = 0.03). The second avenue pointed towards the impaired immune response, indicated by LY75-CD302 GPV(p = 8.3 × 10-4) and diminished HLA diversity compared with controls(p = 3 × 10-7). Furthermore, we found a significantly higher overall GPV burden in early-onset OC-patients compared to controls(p = 3.8 × 10-4). The genetic predisposition to early-onset OC appears to be a heterogeneous and complex process that goes beyond the traditional Mendelian monogenic understanding of hereditary cancer predisposition, with a significant role of the immune system. We speculate that rather a cumulative overall GPV burden than specific GPV may potentially increase OC risk, concomitantly with reduced HLA diversity.

Antiprogestins for breast cancer treatment: We are almost ready

The development of antiprogestins was initially a gynecological purpose. However, since mifepristone was developed, its application for breast cancer treatment was immediately proposed. Later, new compounds with lower antiglucocorticoid and antiandrogenic effects were developed to be applied to different pathologies, including breast cancer. We describe herein the studies performed in the breast cancer field with special focus on those reported in recent years, ranging from preclinical biological models to those carried out in patients. We highlight the potential use of antiprogestins in breast cancer prevention in women with BRCA1 mutations, and their use for breast cancer treatment, emphasizing the need to elucidate which patients will respond. In this sense, the PR isoform ratio has emerged as a possible tool to predict antiprogestin responsiveness. The effects of combined treatments of antiprogestins together with other drugs currently used in the clinic, such as tamoxifen, CDK4/CDK6 inhibitors or pembrolizumab in preclinical models is discussed since it is in this scenario that antiprogestins will be probably introduced. Finally, we explain how transcriptomic or proteomic studies, that were carried out in different luminal breast cancer models and in breast cancer samples that responded or were predicted to respond to the antiprogestin therapy, show a decrease in proliferative pathways. Deregulated pathways intrinsic of each model are discussed, as well as how these analyses may contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms involved.

Polygenic embryo screening: quo vadis?

Recently, the use of polygenic risk scores in embryo screening (PGT-P) has been introduced on the premise of reducing polygenic disease risk through embryo selection. However, it has been met with extensive critique: considered "technology-driven" rather than "evidence-based", concerns exist about its validity, utility, ethics, and societal effects. Its scientific foundations and criticisms thus need to be carefully considered. However, seeing as PGT-P is already offered in some settings, further questions need to be addressed, in order to give due diligence to various aspects of PGT-P. By examining the complexities of clinical introduction of PGT-P, we discuss whether PGT-P could be responsibly implemented in the first place, what elements need to be addressed if PGT-P is clinically implemented, and subsequently how counselling and decision-making of its users could be envisaged. By dissecting these elements, we provide an overview of important practical questions of PGT-P and emphasize elements of PGT-P that we think have yet to be given sufficient attention. These questions and elements are for example related to the potential target group, scope, and decision-making possibilities of PGT-P. The aspects we raise are crucial to consider by the scientific community and policy makers for the development of guidelines and/or an ethical framework for PGT-P.

Implementation of risk assessment process for breast cancer risk in primary care

Background

Current cancer prevention guidelines recommend assessing breast cancer risk using validated risk calculators such as Tyrer-Cuzick and assessing genetic testing eligibility with NCCN. Women at high-risk of breast cancer may be recommended to undergo additional or earlier screening. Risk assessment is not consistently implemented in the primary care setting resulting in increased morbidity and mortality in unidentified high-risk individuals.

Methods

A single-arm interventional study was conducted in an academic primary care clinic for women 25-50 years old presenting for primary care appointments. Pre-visit workflows evaluated breast cancer risk using the Cancer Risk Assessment (CRA) Tool and information was provided to the clinician with guideline-based recommendations. Post-visit questionnaires and chart review were conducted.

Results

The survey response rate was 24.5% (144/587) with 80.3% of responses completed online (94/117). The average age of respondents was 35.8 years with 50.4% White and 35.9% Black. There were no differences in response rate based on race. Risk discussion was documented in the medical record in 15.4% of cases with a higher rate of documentation in high-risk patient based on risk assessment as compared with average risk respondents (34.6% vs. 9.7%, p<0.01). In the high-risk women identified 11.4% (4/35) were seen by the high-risk breast clinic, and 5.7% (2/35) were referred for genetic evaluation. None had previously obtained MRI screening or genetic testing.

Conclusions

There is limited identification and evaluation of women at high risk for breast cancer. Pre-visit surveys can be used as a tool to assess breast cancer risk in the primary care setting; however additional strategies are needed to implement systematic risk assessment and facilitate appropriate treatment based on risk level.

Genetic modifiers of rare variants in monogenic developmental disorder loci

Rare damaging variants in a large number of genes are known to cause monogenic developmental disorders (DDs) and have also been shown to cause milder subclinical phenotypes in population cohorts. Here, we show that carrying multiple (2-5) rare damaging variants across 599 dominant DD genes has an additive adverse effect on numerous cognitive and socioeconomic traits in UK Biobank, which can be partially counterbalanced by a higher educational attainment polygenic score (EA-PGS). Phenotypic deviators from expected EA-PGS could be partly explained by the enrichment or depletion of rare DD variants. Among carriers of rare DD variants, those with a DD-related clinical diagnosis had a substantially lower EA-PGS and more severe phenotype than those without a clinical diagnosis. Our results suggest that the overall burden of both rare and common variants can modify the expressivity of a phenotype, which may then influence whether an individual reaches the threshold for clinical disease.

EMQN best practice guidelines for genetic testing in hereditary breast and ovarian cancer

Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC) is a genetic condition associated with increased risk of cancers. The past decade has brought about significant changes to hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) diagnostic testing with new treatments, testing methods and strategies, and evolving information on genetic associations. These best practice guidelines have been produced to assist clinical laboratories in effectively addressing the complexities of HBOC testing, while taking into account advancements since the last guidelines were published in 2007. These guidelines summarise cancer risk data from recent studies for the most commonly tested high and moderate risk HBOC genes for laboratories to refer to as a guide. Furthermore, recommendations are provided for somatic and germline testing services with regards to clinical referral, laboratory analyses, variant interpretation, and reporting. The guidelines present recommendations where 'must' is assigned to advocate that the recommendation is essential; and 'should' is assigned to advocate that the recommendation is highly advised but may not be universally applicable. Recommendations are presented in the form of shaded italicised statements throughout the document, and in the form of a table in supplementary materials (Table S4). Finally, for the purposes of encouraging standardisation and aiding implementation of recommendations, example report wording covering the essential points to be included is provided for the most common HBOC referral and reporting scenarios. These guidelines are aimed primarily at genomic scientists working in diagnostic testing laboratories.

Polygenic risk score-based prediction of breast cancer risk in Taiwanese women with dense breast using a retrospective cohort study

Mammographic screening has contributed to a significant reduction in breast cancer mortality. Several studies have highlighted the correlation between breast density, as detected through mammography, and a higher likelihood of developing breast cancer. A polygenic risk score (PRS) is a numerical score that is calculated based on an individual's genetic information. This study aims to explore the potential roles of PRS as candidate markers for breast cancer development and investigate the genetic profiles associated with clinical characteristics in Asian females with dense breasts. This is a retrospective cohort study integrated breast cancer screening, population genotyping, and cancer registry database. The PRSs of the study cohort were estimated using genotyping data of 77 single nucleotide polymorphisms based on the PGS000001 Catalog. A subgroup analysis was conducted for females without breast symptoms. Breast cancer patients constituted a higher proportion of individuals in PRS Q4 (37.8% vs. 24.8% in controls). Among dense breast patients with no symptoms, the high PRS group (Q4) consistently showed a significantly elevated breast cancer risk compared to the low PRS group (Q1-Q3) in both univariate (OR = 2.25, 95% CI 1.43-3.50, P < 0.001) and multivariate analyses (OR: 2.23; 95% CI 1.41-3.48, P < 0.001). The study was extended to predict breast cancer risk using common low-penetrance risk variants in a PRS model, which could be integrated into personalized screening strategies for Taiwanese females with dense breasts without prominent symptoms.

Secondary (additional) findings from the 100,000 Genomes Project: Disease manifestation, health care outcomes, and costs of disclosure

PURPOSE

The UK 100,000 Genomes Project offered participants screening for additional findings (AFs) in genes associated with familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) or hereditary cancer syndromes including breast/ovarian cancer (HBOC), Lynch, familial adenomatous polyposis, MYH-associated polyposis, multiple endocrine neoplasia (MEN), and von Hippel-Lindau. Here, we report disclosure processes, manifestation of AF-related disease, outcomes, and costs.

METHODS

An observational study in an area representing one-fifth of England.

RESULTS

Data were collected from 89 adult AF recipients. At disclosure, among 57 recipients of a cancer-predisposition-associated AF and 32 recipients of an FH-associated AF, 35% and 88%, respectively, had personal and/or family history evidence of AF-related disease. During post-disclosure investigations, 4 cancer-AF recipients had evidence of disease, including 1 medullary thyroid cancer. Six women with an HBOC AF, 3 women with a Lynch syndrome AF, and 2 individuals with a MEN AF elected for risk-reducing surgery. New hyperlipidemia diagnoses were made in 6 FH-AF recipients and treatment (re-)initiated for 7 with prior hyperlipidemia. Generating and disclosing AFs in this region cost £1.4m; £8680 per clinically significant AF.

CONCLUSION

Generation and disclosure of AFs identifies individuals with and without personal or familial evidence of disease and prompts appropriate clinical interventions. Results can inform policy toward secondary findings.

Breast Cancer Polygenic-Risk Score Influence on Risk-Reducing Endocrine Therapy Use: Genetic Risk Estimate (GENRE) Trial 1-Year and 2-Year Follow-Up

Refinement of breast cancer risk estimates with a polygenic-risk score (PRS) may improve uptake of risk-reducing endocrine therapy (ET). A previous clinical trial assessed the influence of adding a PRS to traditional risk estimates on ET use. We stratified participants according to PRS-refined breast cancer risk and evaluated ET use and ET-related quality of life (QOL) at 1-year (previously reported) and 2-year follow-ups. Of 151 participants, 58 (38.4%) initiated ET, and 22 (14.6%) discontinued ET by 2 years; 42 (27.8%) and 36 (23.8%) participants were using ET at 1- and 2-year follow-ups, respectively. At the 2-year follow-up, 39% of participants with a lifetime breast cancer risk of 40.1% to 100.0%, 18% with a 20.1% to 40.0% risk, and 16% with a 0.0% to 20.0% risk were taking ET (overall P = 0.01). Moreover, 40% of participants whose breast cancer risk increased by 10% or greater with addition of the PRS to a traditional breast cancer-risk model were taking ET versus 0% whose risk decreased by 10% or greater (P = 0.004). QOL was similar for participants taking or not taking ET at 1- and 2-year follow-ups, although most who discontinued ET did so because of adverse effects. However, these QOL results may have been skewed by the long interval between QOL surveys and lack of baseline QOL data. PRS-informed breast cancer prevention counseling has a lasting, but waning, effect over time. Additional follow-up studies are needed to address the effect of PRS on ET adherence, ET-related QOL, supplemental breast cancer screening, and other risk-reducing behaviors.

PREVENTION RELEVANCE

Risk-reducing medications for breast cancer are considerably underused. Informing women at risk with precise and individualized risk assessment tools may substantially affect the incidence of breast cancer. In our study, a risk assessment tool (IBIS-polygenic-risk score) yielded promising results, with 39% of women at highest risk starting preventive medication.

Characterizing prostate cancer risk through multi-ancestry genome-wide discovery of 187 novel risk variants

The transferability and clinical value of genetic risk scores (GRSs) across populations remain limited due to an imbalance in genetic studies across ancestrally diverse populations. Here we conducted a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of 156,319 prostate cancer cases and 788,443 controls of European, African, Asian and Hispanic men, reflecting a 57% increase in the number of non-European cases over previous prostate cancer genome-wide association studies. We identified 187 novel risk variants for prostate cancer, increasing the total number of risk variants to 451. An externally replicated multi-ancestry GRS was associated with risk that ranged from 1.8 (per standard deviation) in African ancestry men to 2.2 in European ancestry men. The GRS was associated with a greater risk of aggressive versus non-aggressive disease in men of African ancestry (P = 0.03). Our study presents novel prostate cancer susceptibility loci and a GRS with effective risk stratification across ancestry groups.

Primary Prevention and Early Detection of Hereditary Breast Cancer

Background

Primary prevention and early detection of hereditary breast cancer has been one of the main topics of breast cancer research in recent decades. The knowledge of risk factors for breast cancer has been increasing continuously just like the recommendations for risk management. Pathogenic germline variants (mutations, class 4/5) of risk genes are significant susceptibility factors in healthy individuals. At the same time, germline mutations serve as biomarkers for targeted therapy in breast cancer treatment. Therefore, management of healthy mutation carriers to enable primary prevention is in the focus as much as the consideration of pathogenic germline variants for therapeutic decisions. Since 1996, the German Consortium has provided quality-assured care for counselees and patients with familial burden of breast and ovarian cancer.

Summary

Currently, there are 23 university centers with over 100 cooperating DKG-certified breast and gynecological cancer centers. These centers provide standardized, evidence-based, and knowledge-generating care, which includes aspects of primary as well as secondary and tertiary prevention. An important aspect of quality assurance and development was the inclusion of the HBOC centers in the certification system of the German Cancer Society (GCS). Since 2020, the centers have been regularly audited and their quality standards continuously reviewed according to quality indicators adapted to the current state of research. The standard of care at GC-HBOC' centers involves the evaluation as well as evolution of various aspects of care like inclusion criteria, identification of new risk genes, management of variants of unknown significance (class 3), evaluation of risk-reducing options, intensified surveillance, and communication of risks. Among these, the possibility of intensified surveillance in the GC-HBOC for early detection of breast cancer is an important component of individual risk management for many counselees. As has been shown in recent years, in carriers of pathogenic variants in high-risk genes, this approach enables the detection of breast cancer at very early, more favorable stages although no reduction of mortality has been demonstrated yet. The key component of the intensified surveillance is annual contrast-enhanced breast MRI, supplemented by up to biannual breast ultrasound and mammography usually starting at age 40.

Key Messages

Apart from early detection, the central goal of care is the prevention of cancer. By utilizing individualized risk calculation, the optimal timeframe for risk-reducing surgery can be estimated, and counselees can be supported in reaching preference-sensitive decisions.

Polygenic risk for triglyceride levels in the presence of a high impact rare variant

BACKGROUND

Elevated triglyceride (TG) levels are a heritable and modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and have well-established associations with common genetic variation captured in a polygenic risk score (PRS). In young adulthood, the 22q11.2 microdeletion conveys a 2-fold increased risk for mild-moderate hypertriglyceridemia. This study aimed to assess the role of the TG-PRS in individuals with this elevated baseline risk for mild-moderate hypertriglyceridemia.

METHODS

We studied a deeply phenotyped cohort of adults (n = 157, median age 34 years) with a 22q11.2 microdeletion and available genome sequencing, lipid level, and other clinical data. The association between a previously developed TG-PRS and TG levels was assessed using a multivariable regression model adjusting for effects of sex, BMI, and other covariates. We also constructed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves using logistic regression models to assess the ability of TG-PRS and significant clinical variables to predict mild-moderate hypertriglyceridemia status.

RESULTS

The TG-PRS was a significant predictor of TG-levels (p = 1.52E-04), along with male sex and BMI, in a multivariable model (pmodel = 7.26E-05). The effect of TG-PRS appeared to be slightly stronger in individuals with obesity (BMI ≥ 30) (beta = 0.4617) than without (beta = 0.1778), in a model unadjusted for other covariates (p-interaction = 0.045). Among ROC curves constructed, the inclusion of TG-PRS, sex, and BMI as predictor variables produced the greatest area under the curve (0.749) for classifying those with mild-moderate hypertriglyceridemia, achieving an optimal sensitivity and specificity of 0.746 and 0.707, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate that in addition to significant effects of sex and BMI, genome-wide common variation captured in a PRS also contributes to the variable expression of the 22q11.2 microdeletion with respect to elevated TG levels.

From Hazard Rate to Age-at-Onset Distribution: Mind the Gap

A recent study published in the journal claimed that genetic susceptibility to breast cancer occurs mainly due to rare inherited variants. The claim relies on a set of deductive arguments following observations on patterns of age-at-onset distribution of the disease among twin pairs. In this brief commentary, we point out a major gap in the given argument due to the interchangeable use of hazard rates and age-at-onset distribution, and thus conclude that the published study does not provide any evidence against polygenic risk of breast cancer due to common variants. See related article by Yasui et al., p. 1518.

Clinical utility of polygenic risk scores: a critical 2023 appraisal

Since their first appearance in the context of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in 2009, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been described for a large number of common complex diseases. However, the clinical utility of PRSs in disease risk assessment or therapeutic decision making is likely limited because PRSs usually only account for the heritable component of a trait and ignore the etiological role of environment and lifestyle. We surveyed the current state of PRSs for various diseases, including breast cancer, diabetes, prostate cancer, coronary artery disease, and Parkinson disease, with an extra focus upon the potential improvement of clinical scores by their combination with PRSs. We observed that the diagnostic and prognostic performance of PRSs alone is consistently low, as expected. Moreover, combining a PRS with a clinical score at best led to moderate improvement of the power of either risk marker. Despite the large number of PRSs reported in the scientific literature, prospective studies of their clinical utility, particularly of the PRS-associated improvement of standard screening or therapeutic procedures, are still rare. In conclusion, the benefit to individual patients or the health care system in general of PRS-based extensions of existing diagnostic or treatment regimens is still difficult to judge.

Detection of pathogenic variants in breast cancer susceptibility genes in bilateral breast cancer

PURPOSE

To investigate the frequency of germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in women with bilateral breast cancer.

METHODS

We undertook BRCA1/2 and CHEK2 c.1100delC molecular analysis in 764 samples and a multigene panel in 156. Detection rates were assessed by age at first primary, Manchester Score, and breast pathology. Oestrogen receptor (ER) status of the contralateral versus first breast cancer was compared on 1081 patients with breast cancer with BRCA1/BRCA2 PVs.

RESULTS

764 women with bilateral breast cancer have undergone testing of BRCA1/2 and CHEK2; 407 were also tested for PALB2 and 177 for ATM. Detection rates were BRCA1 11.6%, BRCA2 14.0%, CHEK2 2.4%, PALB2 1.0%, ATM 1.1% and, for a subset of mainly very early onset tumours, TP53 4.6% (9 of 195). The highest PV detection rates were for triple negative cancers for BRCA1 (26.4%), grade 3 ER+HER2 for BRCA2 (27.9%) and HER2+ for CHEK2 (8.9%). ER status of the first primary in BRCA1 and BRCA2 PV heterozygotes was strongly predictive of the ER status of the second contralateral tumour since ~90% of second tumours were ER- in BRCA1 heterozygotes, and 50% were ER- in BRCA2 heterozygotes if the first was ER-.

CONCLUSION

We have shown a high rate of detection of BRCA1 and BRCA2 PVs in triple negative and grade 3 ER+HER2- first primary diagnoses, respectively. High rates of HER2+ were associated with CHEK2 PVs, and women ≤30 years were associated with TP53 PVs. First primary ER status in BRCA1/2 strongly predicts the second tumour will be the same ER status even if unusual for PVs in that gene.

LncRNA MIR4435-2HG drives cancer progression by modulating cell cycle regulators and mTOR signaling in stroma-enriched subtypes of urothelial carcinoma of the bladder

BACKGROUND

The risk for recurrence and metastasis after treatment for urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) is high. Therefore, identifying efficient prognostic markers and novel therapeutic targets is urgently needed. Several long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been reported to be correlated with UCB progression. In this study, we found that the subtype-specific lncRNA MIR4435-2 host gene (MIR4435-2HG) plays a novel oncogenic role in UCB.

METHODS

RNA-Seq data of TCGA/BLCA were analyzed. The expression of MIR4435-2HG was measured by qRT-PCR in 16 pairs of bladder cancer tissues and adjacent normal tissues. The clinical relecance of MIR4435-2HG was validated via in situ hybridization performed on an in-house cohort of 116 UCB patient samples. RNA pull-down followed by mass spectrometry was performed to identify MIR4435-2HG-binding proteins. To identify signaling pathways involved in MIR4435-2HG activity, comprehensive in vitro and in vivo studies and RNA-Seq assays were performed using UCB cells in which MIR4435-2HG expression was knocked down or exogenously overexpressed. In addition, we performed RNA immunoprecipitation and Western blot analyses to validate the identified MIR4435-2HG-binding proteins and to determine the molecular mechanisms by which MIR4435-2HG promotes UCB progression.

RESULTS

We found that MIR4435-2HG was significantly upregulated in the stromal-enriched subtype of UCB. Increased MIR4435-2HG expression was positively correlated with a high histological grade, advanced T stages, larger tumors, lymph node metastasis and a poor prognosis. In vitro experiments revealed that MIR4435-2HG expression silencing suppressed cell proliferation and induced apoptosis. Inhibition of MIR4434-2HG delayed xenograft tumor growth, while MIR4435-2HG overexpression reversed the MIR4435-2HG silencing-induced inhibition of UCB tumor phenotype acquisition. Mechanistically, we found that MIR4435-2HG positively regulated the expression of a variety of cell cycle regulators, including BRCA2 and CCND1. Knocking down MIR4435-2HG increased the sensitivity of tumor cells to the VEGFR inhibitor cediranib. Furthermore, we found that MIR4435-2HG regulated mTOR signaling and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) signaling pathways by modulating the phosphorylation of mTOR, 70S6K and 4EBP1. Finally, we confirmed that MIR4435-2HG enhances tumor metastasis through regulation of the EMT pathway.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that upregulated MIR4435-2HG expression levels are significantly correlated with a poor prognosis of UCB patients. MIR4435-2HG promotes bladder cancer progression, mediates cell cycle (de)regulation and modulates mTOR signaling. MIR4435-2HG is an oncogenic lncRNA in UCB that may serve as a diagnostic and therapeutic target.

Polygenic scores in cancer

Since the publication of the first genome-wide association study for cancer in 2007, thousands of common alleles that are associated with the risk of cancer have been identified. The relative risk associated with individual variants is small and of limited clinical significance. However, the combined effect of multiple risk variants as captured by polygenic scores (PGSs) may be much greater and therefore provide risk discrimination that is clinically useful. We review the considerable research efforts over the past 15 years for developing statistical methods for PGSs and their application in large-scale genome-wide association studies to develop PGSs for various cancers. We review the predictive performance of these PGSs and the multiple challenges currently limiting the clinical application of PGSs. Despite this, PGSs are beginning to be incorporated into clinical multifactorial risk prediction models to stratify risk in both clinical trials and clinical implementation studies.

Widespread genomic influences on phenotype in Dravet syndrome, a 'monogenic' condition

Dravet syndrome is an archetypal rare severe epilepsy, considered 'monogenic', typically caused by loss-of-function SCN1A variants. Despite a recognizable core phenotype, its marked phenotypic heterogeneity is incompletely explained by differences in the causal SCN1A variant or clinical factors. In 34 adults with SCN1A-related Dravet syndrome, we show additional genomic variation beyond SCN1A contributes to phenotype and its diversity, with an excess of rare variants in epilepsy-related genes as a set and examples of blended phenotypes, including one individual with an ultra-rare DEPDC5 variant and focal cortical dysplasia. The polygenic risk score for intelligence was lower, and for longevity, higher, in Dravet syndrome than in epilepsy controls. The causal, major-effect, SCN1A variant may need to act against a broadly compromised genomic background to generate the full Dravet syndrome phenotype, whilst genomic resilience may help to ameliorate the risk of premature mortality in adult Dravet syndrome survivors.

Clinical Impact of Polygenic Risk Score for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction in 382 Individuals with Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Syndrome

Single nucleotide polymorphisms are currently not considered in breast cancer (BC) risk predictions used in daily practice of genetic counselling and clinical management of familial BC in Germany. This study aimed to assess the clinical value of incorporating a 313-variant-based polygenic risk score (PRS) into BC risk calculations in a cohort of German women with suspected hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome (HBOC). Data from 382 individuals seeking counselling for HBOC were analysed. Risk calculations were performed using the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm with and without the inclusion of the PRS. Changes in risk predictions and their impact on clinical management were evaluated. The PRS led to changes in risk stratification based on 10-year risk calculations in 13.6% of individuals. Furthermore, the inclusion of the PRS in BC risk predictions resulted in clinically significant changes in 12.0% of cases, impacting the prevention recommendations established by the German Consortium for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer. These findings support the implementation of the PRS in genetic counselling for personalized BC risk assessment.

Economic evaluations of predictive genetic testing: A scoping review

Predictive genetic testing can provide information about whether or not someone will develop or is likely to develop a specific condition at a later stage in life. Economic evaluation can assess the value of money for such testing. Studies on the economic evaluation of predictive genetic testing have been carried out in a variety of settings, and this research aims to conduct a scoping review of findings from these studies. We searched the PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane databases with combined search terms, from 2019 to 2022. Relevant studies from 2013 to 2019 in a previous systematic review were also included. The study followed the recommended stages for undertaking a scoping review. A total of 53 studies were included, including 33 studies from the previous review and 20 studies from the search of databases. A significant number of studies focused on the US, UK, and Australia (34%, 23%, and 11%). The most frequently included health conditions were cancer and cardiovascular diseases (68% and 19%). Over half of the studies compared predictive genetic testing with no genetic testing, and the majority of them concluded that at least some type of genetic testing was cost-effective compared to no testing (94%). Some studies stated that predictive genetic testing is becoming more cost-effective with the trend of lowering genetic testing costs. Studies on predictive genetic testing covered various health conditions, particularly cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Most studies indicated that predictive genetic testing is cost-effective compared to no testing.

Cost-effectiveness of polygenic risk profiling for primary open-angle glaucoma in the United Kingdom and Australia

BACKGROUND

Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is the most common subtype of glaucoma. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of polygenic risk score (PRS) profiling as a screening tool for POAG.

METHODS

We used a Markov cohort model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of implementing PRS screening in the UK and Australia, conducted from the healthcare payer's perspective. We used published data to calculate prevalence, transition probabilities, utility, cost and other parameters in the model. Our main outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and secondary outcomes were years of blindness avoided and a 'Blindness ICER'. We did one-way as well as two-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The proposed screening programme for POAG in the UK is predicted to result in ICER of £24,783 (95% CI: £13,373-66,960) and would avoid 1 year of blindness at ICER of £10,095 (95% CI: £5513-27,656). In Australia, it is predicted to result in ICER of AU$34,252 (95% CI: AU$21,324-95,497) and would avoid 1 year of blindness at ICER of AU$13,359 (95% CI: AU$8143-37,448). Using the willingness to pay thresholds of $54,808 and £30,000, the proposed screening model is 79.2% likely to be cost-effective in Australia and is 60.2% likely to be cost-effective in the UK, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We describe and model the cost-efficacy of incorporating a polygenic risk score for POAG screening in Australia and the UK for the first time and results indicated this is a promising cost-effectiveness strategy.

Biobank-scale methods and projections for sparse polygenic prediction from machine learning

In this paper we characterize the performance of linear models trained via widely-used sparse machine learning algorithms. We build polygenic scores and examine performance as a function of training set size, genetic ancestral background, and training method. We show that predictor performance is most strongly dependent on size of training data, with smaller gains from algorithmic improvements. We find that LASSO generally performs as well as the best methods, judged by a variety of metrics. We also investigate performance characteristics of predictors trained on one genetic ancestry group when applied to another. Using LASSO, we develop a novel method for projecting AUC and correlation as a function of data size (i.e., for new biobanks) and characterize the asymptotic limit of performance. Additionally, for LASSO (compressed sensing) we show that performance metrics and predictor sparsity are in agreement with theoretical predictions from the Donoho-Tanner phase transition. Specifically, a future predictor trained in the Taiwan Precision Medicine Initiative for asthma can achieve an AUC of [Formula: see text] and for height a correlation of [Formula: see text] for a Taiwanese population. This is above the measured values of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], respectively, for UK Biobank trained predictors applied to a European population.

150 risk variants for diverticular disease of intestine prioritize cell types and enable polygenic prediction of disease susceptibility

We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) analysis of diverticular disease (DivD) of intestine within 724,372 individuals and identified 150 independent genome-wide significant DNA variants. Integration of the GWAS results with human gut single-cell RNA sequencing data implicated gut myocyte, mesothelial and stromal cells, and enteric neurons and glia in DivD development. Ninety-five genes were prioritized based on multiple lines of evidence, including SLC9A3, a drug target gene of tenapanor used for the treatment of the constipation subtype of irritable bowel syndrome. A DivD polygenic score (PGS) enables effective risk prediction (area under the curve [AUC], 0.688; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.645-0.732) and the top 20% PGS was associated with ∼3.6-fold increased DivD risk relative to the remaining population. Our statistical and bioinformatic analyses suggest that the mechanism of DivD is through colon structure, gut motility, gastrointestinal mucus, and ionic homeostasis. Our analyses reinforce the link between gastrointestinal disorders and the enteric nervous system through genetics.

Evaluation of a genetic risk score computed using human chromosomal-scale length variation to predict breast cancer

INTRODUCTION

The ability to accurately predict whether a woman will develop breast cancer later in her life, should reduce the number of breast cancer deaths. Different predictive models exist for breast cancer based on family history, BRCA status, and SNP analysis. The best of these models has an accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC) of about 0.65. We have developed computational methods to characterize a genome by a small set of numbers that represent the length of segments of the chromosomes, called chromosomal-scale length variation (CSLV).

METHODS

We built machine learning models to differentiate between women who had breast cancer and women who did not based on their CSLV characterization. We applied this procedure to two different datasets: the UK Biobank (1534 women with breast cancer and 4391 women who did not) and the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) 874 with breast cancer and 3381 without.

RESULTS

We found a machine learning model that could predict breast cancer with an AUC of 0.836 95% CI (0.830.0.843) in the UK Biobank data. Using a similar approach with the TCGA data, we obtained a model with an AUC of 0.704 95% CI (0.702, 0.706). Variable importance analysis indicated that no single chromosomal region was responsible for significant fraction of the model results.

CONCLUSION

In this retrospective study, chromosomal-scale length variation could effectively predict whether or not a woman enrolled in the UK Biobank study developed breast cancer.

Polygenic Risk Score Predicts Modified Risk in BRCA1 Pathogenic Variant c.4035del and c.5266dup Carriers in Breast Cancer Patients

The aim of this study was to assess the power of the polygenic risk score (PRS) in estimating the overall genetic risk of women carrying germline BRCA1 pathogenic variants (PVs) c.4035del or c.5266dup to develop breast (BC) or ovarian cancer (OC) due to additional genetic variations. In this study, PRSs previously developed from two joint models using summary statistics of age-at-onset (BayesW model) and case-control data (BayesRR-RC model) from a genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) were applied to 406 germline BRCA1 PV (c.4035del or c.5266dup) carriers affected by BC or OC, compared with unaffected individuals. A binomial logistic regression model was used to assess the association of PRS with BC or OC development risk. We observed that the best-fitting BayesW PRS model effectively predicted the individual's BC risk (OR = 1.37; 95% CI = 1.03-1.81, p = 0.02905 with AUC = 0.759). However, none of the applied PRS models was a good predictor of OC risk. The best-fitted PRS model (BayesW) contributed to assessing the risk of developing BC for germline BRCA1 PV (c.4035del or c.5266dup) carriers and may facilitate more precise and timely patient stratification and decision-making to improve the current BC treatment or even prevention strategies.

The impact of rare protein coding genetic variation on adult cognitive function

Compelling evidence suggests that human cognitive function is strongly influenced by genetics. Here, we conduct a large-scale exome study to examine whether rare protein-coding variants impact cognitive function in the adult population (n = 485,930). We identify eight genes (ADGRB2, KDM5B, GIGYF1, ANKRD12, SLC8A1, RC3H2, CACNA1A and BCAS3) that are associated with adult cognitive function through rare coding variants with large effects. Rare genetic architecture for cognitive function partially overlaps with that of neurodevelopmental disorders. In the case of KDM5B we show how the genetic dosage of one of these genes may determine the variability of cognitive, behavioral and molecular traits in mice and humans. We further provide evidence that rare and common variants overlap in association signals and contribute additively to cognitive function. Our study introduces the relevance of rare coding variants for cognitive function and unveils high-impact monogenic contributions to how cognitive function is distributed in the normal adult population.

Functional analyses of rare germline BRCA1 variants by transcriptional activation and homologous recombination repair assays

BACKGROUND

Damaging alterations in the BRCA1 gene have been extensively described as one of the main causes of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC). BRCA1 alterations can lead to impaired homologous recombination repair (HRR) of double-stranded DNA breaks, a process which involves the RING, BRCT and coiled-coil domains of the BRCA1 protein. In addition, the BRCA1 protein is involved in transcriptional activation (TA) of several genes through its C-terminal BRCT domain.

METHODS

In this study, we have investigated the effect on HRR and TA of 11 rare BRCA1 missense variants classified as variants of uncertain clinical significance (VUS), located within or in close proximity to the BRCT domain, with the aim of generating additional knowledge to guide the correct classification of these variants. The variants were selected from our previous study "BRCA1 Norway", which is a collection of all BRCA1 variants detected at the four medical genetic departments in Norway.

RESULTS

All variants, except one, showed a significantly reduced HRR activity compared to the wild type (WT) protein. Two of the variants (p.Ala1708Val and p.Trp1718Ser) also exhibited low TA activity similar to the pathogenic controls. The variant p.Trp1718Ser could be reclassified to likely pathogenic. However, for ten of the variants, the total strength of pathogenic evidence was not sufficient for reclassification according to the CanVIG-UK BRCA1/BRCA2 gene-specific guidelines for variant interpretation.

CONCLUSIONS

When including the newly achieved functional evidence with other available information, one VUS was reclassified to likely pathogenic. Eight of the investigated variants affected only one of the assessed activities of BRCA1, highlighting the importance of comparing results obtained from several functional assays to better understand the consequences of BRCA1 variants on protein function. This is especially important for multifunctional proteins such as BRCA1.

Clinical applicability of the Polygenic Risk Score for breast cancer risk prediction in familial cases

BACKGROUND

Common low-risk variants are presently not used to guide clinical management of familial breast cancer (BC). We explored the additive impact of a 313-variant-based Polygenic Risk Score (PRS₃₁₃) relative to standard gene testing in non-BRCA1/2 Dutch BC families.

METHODS

We included 3918 BC cases from 3492 Dutch non-BRCA1/2 BC families and 3474 Dutch population controls. The association of the standardised PRS₃₁₃ with BC was estimated using a logistic regression model, adjusted for pedigree-based family history. Family history of the controls was imputed for this analysis. SEs were corrected to account for relatedness of individuals. Using the BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) V.5 model, lifetime risks were retrospectively calculated with and without individual PRS₃₁₃. For 2586 cases and 2584 controls, the carrier status of pathogenic variants (PVs) in ATM, CHEK2 and PALB2 was known.

RESULTS

The family history-adjusted PRS₃₁₃ was significantly associated with BC (per SD OR=1.97, 95% CI 1.84 to 2.11). Including the PRS₃₁₃ in BOADICEA family-based risk prediction would have changed screening recommendations in up to 27%, 36% and 34% of cases according to BC screening guidelines from the USA, UK and the Netherlands (National Comprehensive Cancer Network, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, and Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation), respectively. For the population controls, without information on family history, this was up to 39%, 44% and 58%, respectively. Among carriers of PVs in known moderate BC susceptibility genes, the PRS₃₁₃ had the largest impact for CHEK2 and ATM.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the application of the PRS₃₁₃ in risk prediction for genetically uninformative BC families and families with a PV in moderate BC risk genes.

Hypomorphic Brca2 and Rad51c double mutant mice display Fanconi anemia, cancer and polygenic replication stress

The prototypic cancer-predisposition disease Fanconi Anemia (FA) is identified by biallelic mutations in any one of twenty-three FANC genes. Puzzlingly, inactivation of one Fanc gene alone in mice fails to faithfully model the pleiotropic human disease without additional external stress. Here we find that FA patients frequently display FANC co-mutations. Combining exemplary homozygous hypomorphic Brca2/Fancd1 and Rad51c/Fanco mutations in mice phenocopies human FA with bone marrow failure, rapid death by cancer, cellular cancer-drug hypersensitivity and severe replication instability. These grave phenotypes contrast the unremarkable phenotypes seen in mice with single gene-function inactivation, revealing an unexpected synergism between Fanc mutations. Beyond FA, breast cancer-genome analysis confirms that polygenic FANC tumor-mutations correlate with lower survival, expanding our understanding of FANC genes beyond an epistatic FA-pathway. Collectively, the data establish a polygenic replication stress concept as a testable principle, whereby co-occurrence of a distinct second gene mutation amplifies and drives endogenous replication stress, genome instability and disease.

Predicting Cancer Risk from Germline Whole-exome Sequencing Data Using a Novel Context-based Variant Aggregation Approach

Many studies have shown that the distributions of the genomic, nucleotide, and epigenetic contexts of somatic variants in tumors are informative of cancer etiology. Recently, a new direction of research has focused on extracting signals from the contexts of germline variants and evidence has emerged that patterns defined by these factors are associated with oncogenic pathways, histologic subtypes, and prognosis. It remains an open question whether aggregating germline variants using meta-features capturing their genomic, nucleotide, and epigenetic contexts can improve cancer risk prediction. This aggregation approach can potentially increase statistical power for detecting signals from rare variants, which have been hypothesized to be a major source of the missing heritability of cancer. Using germline whole-exome sequencing data from the UK Biobank, we developed risk models for 10 cancer types using known risk variants (cancer-associated SNPs and pathogenic variants in known cancer predisposition genes) as well as models that additionally include the meta-features. The meta-features did not improve the prediction accuracy of models based on known risk variants. It is possible that expanding the approach to whole-genome sequencing can lead to gains in prediction accuracy.

Significance

There is evidence that cancer is partly caused by rare genetic variants that have not yet been identified. We investigate this issue using novel statistical methods and data from the UK Biobank.

Testing for Inherited Susceptibility to Breast Cancer

When BRCA1 and BRCA2 were first identified, the initial models for delivering testing were shaped by concepts of genetic exceptionalism and a lack of data regarding therapeutic implications and the effectiveness of risk reduction. Since then, interventions have been effective, and treatment implications have become clear. The sensitivity of guideline-based testing is incomplete, leading to calls for universal testing. Completely universal testing, however, is not necessary to identify the great majority of BRCA1 or BRCA2 variants. Broader testing (both in terms of eligibility and genes tested) will identify more variants, particularly in moderate penetrance genes, but the clinical implications remain less clear for these variants.

Variable number tandem repeats (VNTRs) as modifiers of breast cancer risk in carriers of BRCA1 185delAG

Despite substantial efforts in identifying both rare and common variants affecting disease risk, in the majority of diseases, a large proportion of unexplained genetic risk remains. We propose that variable number tandem repeats (VNTRs) may explain a proportion of the missing genetic risk. Herein, in a pilot study with a retrospective cohort design, we tested whether VNTRs are causal modifiers of breast cancer risk in 347 female carriers of the BRCA1 185delAG pathogenic variant, an important group given their high risk of developing breast cancer. We performed targeted-capture to sequence VNTRs, called genotypes with adVNTR, tested the association of VNTRs and breast cancer risk using Cox regression models, and estimated the effect size using a retrospective likelihood approach. Of 303 VNTRs that passed quality control checks, 4 VNTRs were significantly associated with risk to develop breast cancer at false discovery rate [FDR] < 0.05 and an additional 4 VNTRs had FDR < 0.25. After determining the specific risk alleles, there was a significantly earlier age at diagnosis of breast cancer in carriers of the risk alleles compared to those without the risk alleles for seven of eight VNTRs. One example is a VNTR in exon 2 of LINC01973 with a per-allele hazard ratio of 1.58 (1.07-2.33) and 5.28 (2.79-9.99) for the homozygous risk-allele genotype. Results from this first systematic study of VNTRs demonstrate that VNTRs may explain a proportion of the unexplained genetic risk for breast cancer.

Case-case genome-wide association analysis identifying genetic loci with divergent effects on Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis

Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), two major subtypes of inflammatory bowel disease, show substantial differences in their clinical course and treatment response. To identify the genetic factors underlying the distinct characteristics of these two diseases, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) between CD (n = 2359) and UC (n = 2175) in a Korean population, followed by replication in an independent sample of 772 CD and 619 UC cases. Two novel loci were identified with divergent effects on CD and UC: rs9842650 in CD200 and rs885026 in NCOR2. In addition, the seven established susceptibility loci [major histocompatibility complex (MHC), TNFSF15, OTUD3, USP12, IL23R, FCHSD2 and RIPK2] reached genome-wide significance. Of the nine loci, six (MHC, TNFSF15, OTUD3, USP12, IL23R and CD200) were replicated in the case-case GWAS of European populations. The proportion of variance explained in CD-UC status by polygenic risk score analysis was up to 22.6%. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve value was 0.74, suggesting acceptable discrimination between CD and UC. This CD-UC GWAS provides new insights into genetic differences between the two diseases with similar symptoms and might be useful in improving their diagnosis and treatment.

Sibling variation in polygenic traits and DNA recombination mapping with UK Biobank and IVF family data

We use UK Biobank and a unique IVF family dataset (including genotyped embryos) to investigate sibling variation in both phenotype and genotype. We compare phenotype (disease status, height, blood biomarkers) and genotype (polygenic scores, polygenic health index) distributions among siblings to those in the general population. As expected, the between-siblings standard deviation in polygenic scores is [Formula: see text] times smaller than in the general population, but variation is still significant. As previously demonstrated, this allows for substantial benefit from polygenic screening in IVF. Differences in sibling genotypes result from distinct recombination patterns in sexual reproduction. We develop a novel sibling-pair method for detection of recombination breaks via statistical discontinuities. The new method is used to construct a dataset of 1.44 million recombination events which may be useful in further study of meiosis.

Common Germline Risk Variants Impact Somatic Alterations and Clinical Features across Cancers

Aggregation of genome-wide common risk variants, such as polygenic risk score (PRS), can measure genetic susceptibility to cancer. A better understanding of how common germline variants associate with somatic alterations and clinical features could facilitate personalized cancer prevention and early detection. We constructed PRSs from 14 genome-wide association studies (median n = 64,905) for 12 cancer types by multiple methods and calibrated them using the UK Biobank resources (n = 335,048). Meta-analyses across cancer types in The Cancer Genome Atlas (n = 7,965) revealed that higher PRS values were associated with earlier cancer onset and lower burden of somatic alterations, including total mutations, chromosome/arm somatic copy-number alterations (SCNA), and focal SCNAs. This contrasts with rare germline pathogenic variants (e.g., BRCA1/2 variants), showing heterogeneous associations with somatic alterations. Our results suggest that common germline cancer risk variants allow early tumor development before the accumulation of many somatic alterations characteristic of later stages of carcinogenesis.

SIGNIFICANCE

Meta-analyses across cancers show that common germline risk variants affect not only cancer predisposition but the age of cancer onset and burden of somatic alterations, including total mutations and copy-number alterations.

A combined clinical and genetic model for predicting risk of ovarian cancer

OBJECTIVE

Women with a family history of ovarian cancer or a pathogenic or likely pathogenic gene variant are at high risk of the disease, but very few women have these risk factors. We assessed whether a combined polygenic and clinical risk score could predict risk of ovarian cancer in population-based women who would otherwise be considered as being at average risk.

METHODS

We used the UK Biobank to conduct a prospective cohort study assessing the performance of 10-year ovarian cancer risks based on a polygenic risk score, a clinical risk score and a combined risk score. We used Cox regression to assess association, Harrell's C-index to assess discrimination and Poisson regression to assess calibration.

RESULTS

The combined risk model performed best and problems with calibration were overcome by recalibrating the model, which then had a hazard ratio per quintile of risk of 1.338 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.152-1.553], a Harrell's C-index of 0.663 (95% CI, 0.629-0.698) and overall calibration of 1.000 (95% CI, 0.874-1.145). In the refined model with estimates based on the entire dataset, women in the top quintile of 10-year risk were at 1.387 (95% CI, 1.086-1.688) times increased risk, while women in the top quintile of full-lifetime risk were at 1.527 (95% CI, 1.187-1.866) times increased risk compared with the population.

CONCLUSION

Identification of women who are at high risk of ovarian cancer can allow healthcare providers and patients to engage in joint decision-making discussions around the risks and benefits of screening options or risk-reducing surgery.