Health-care utilization by prognosis profile in a managed care setting: using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Cancer Survival Calculator SEER*CSC

Early stage breast cancer follow-up in real-world clinical practice: the added value of cell free circulating tumor DNA

Purpose

Physical examinations and annual mammography (minimal follow-up) are as effective as laboratory/imaging tests (intensive follow-up) in detecting breast cancer (BC) recurrence. This statement is now challenged by the availability of new diagnostic tools for asymptomatic cases. Herein, we analyzed current practices and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in monitoring high-risk BC patients treated with curative intent in a comprehensive cancer center.

Patients and methods

Forty-two consecutive triple negative BC patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy and surgery were prospectively enrolled. Data from plasma samples and surveillance procedures were analyzed to report the diagnostic pattern of relapsed cases, i.e., by symptoms, follow-up procedures and ctDNA.

Results

Besides minimal follow-up, 97% and 79% of patients had at least 1 non-recommended imaging and laboratory tests for surveillance purposes. During a median follow-up of 5.1(IQR, 4.1–5.9) years, 13 events occurred (1 contralateral BC, 1 loco-regional recurrence, 10 metastases, and 1 death). Five recurrent cases were diagnosed by intensive follow-up, 5 by symptoms, and 2 incidentally. ctDNA antedated disseminated disease in all evaluable cases excepted two with bone-only and single liver metastases. The mean time from ctDNA detection to suspicious findings at follow-up imaging was 3.81(SD, 2.68), and to definitive recurrence diagnosis 8(SD, 2.98) months. ctDNA was undetectable in the absence of disease and in two suspected cases not subsequently confirmed.

Conclusions

Some relapses are still symptomatic despite the extensive use of intensive follow-up. ctDNA is a specific test, sensitive enough to detect recurrence before other methods, suitable for clarifying equivocal imaging, and exploitable for salvage therapy in asymptomatic BC survivors.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00432-022-03990-7.

Cause-specific mortality among Medicare beneficiaries with newly diagnosed non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes

BACKGROUND

As the US population ages and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL)-specific mortality declines, deaths from causes other than NHL will become increasingly important in treatment decision making for older patients with NHL. The objective of the current study was to describe how the 5-year cumulative incidence of NHL-specific and other-cause mortality varies by subtype, age, comorbidity level, and time since diagnosis in older patients.

METHODS

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry data linked to Medicare claims, patients aged ≥66 years were identified at the time of diagnosis with a first, primary NHL diagnosis from 2004 through 2013. Death certificate data and Fine-Gray competing risks models were used to estimate the 5-year cumulative incidence of NHL-specific and other-cause mortality by NHL subtype, age, and comorbidity level. Estimates were displayed over time using stacked cumulative incidence curves.

RESULTS

Among 30,666 patients with NHL, 32% died of NHL and 13% died of other causes within 5 years of diagnosis. The cumulative incidence of other-cause mortality increased with age and comorbidity level for all subtypes. Among patients with aggressive NHL subtypes, NHL-specific mortality exceeded other-cause mortality across all age groups, comorbidity levels, and number of years after diagnosis. For patients with indolent NHL subtypes, other-cause mortality was similar to or exceeded NHL-specific mortality, especially among older patients with severe comorbidity or with the indolent marginal zone, lymphoplasmacytic, and mycosis fungoides subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of the current study suggest that mortality from causes other than NHL are important for patients of an older age, with a higher comorbidity level, and with indolent disease. Evidence from the current study can guide the development of tools for estimating individual prognosis that inform treatment discussions in patients with NHL.

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Cancer Survival Calculator SEER*CSC: validation in a managed care setting

BACKGROUND

Nomograms for prostate and colorectal cancer are included in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Cancer Survival Calculator, under development by the National Cancer Institute. They are based on the National Cancer Institute's SEER data, coupled with Medicare data, to estimate the probabilities of surviving or dying from cancer or from other causes based on a set of patient and tumor characteristics. The nomograms provide estimates of survival that are specific to the characteristics of the tumor, age, race, gender, and the overall health of a patient. These nomograms have been internally validated using the SEER data. In this paper, we externally validate the nomograms using data from Kaiser Permanente Colorado.

METHODS

The SEER Cancer Survival Calculator was externally validated using time-dependent area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve statistics and calibration plots for retrospective cohorts of 1102 prostate cancer and 990 colorectal cancer patients from Kaiser Permanente Colorado.

RESULTS

The time-dependent area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve statistics were computed for one, three, five, seven, and 10 year(s) postdiagnosis for prostate and colorectal cancer and ranged from 0.77 to 0.89 for death from cancer and from 0.72 to 0.81 for death from other causes. The calibration plots indicated a very good fit of the model for death from cancer for colorectal cancer and for the higher risk group for prostate cancer. For the lower risk groups for prostate cancer (<10% chance of dying of prostate cancer in 10 years), the model predicted slightly worse prognosis than observed. Except for the lowest risk group for colorectal cancer, the models for death from other causes for both prostate and colorectal cancer predicted slightly worse prognosis than observed.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the external validation indicated that the colorectal and prostate cancer nomograms are reliable tools for physicians and patients to use to obtain information on prognosis and assist in establishing priorities for both treatment of the cancer and other conditions, particularly when a patient is elderly and/or has significant comorbidities. The slightly better than predicted risk of death from other causes in a health maintenance organization (HMO) setting may be due to an overall healthier population and the integrated management of disease relative to the overall population (as represented by SEER).

Cancer survival: an overview of measures, uses, and interpretation

Survival statistics are of great interest to patients, clinicians, researchers, and policy makers. Although seemingly simple, survival can be confusing: there are many different survival measures with a plethora of names and statistical methods developed to answer different questions. This paper aims to describe and disseminate different survival measures and their interpretation in less technical language. In addition, we introduce templates to summarize cancer survival statistic organized by their specific purpose: research and policy versus prognosis and clinical decision making.