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Gunasekera KS, Marcy O, Muñoz J, Lopez-Varela E, Sekadde MP, Franke MF, Bonnet M, Ahmed S, Amanullah F, Anwar A, Augusto O, Aurilio RB, Banu S, Batool I, Brands A, Cain KP, Carratalá-Castro L, Caws M, Click ES, Cranmer LM, García-Basteiro AL, Hesseling AC, Huynh J, Kabir S, Lecca L, Mandalakas A, Mavhunga F, Myint AA, Myo K, Nampijja D, Nicol MP, Orikiriza P, Palmer M, Sant'Anna CC, Siddiqui SA, Smith JP, Song R, Thuong Thuong NT, Ung V, van der Zalm MM, Verkuijl S, Viney K, Walters EG, Warren JL, Zar HJ, Marais BJ, Graham SM, Debray TPA, Cohen T, Seddon JA. Development of treatment-decision algorithms for children evaluated for pulmonary tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis. THE LANCET. CHILD & ADOLESCENT HEALTH 2023; 7:336-346. [PMID: 36924781 PMCID: PMC10127218 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-4642(23)00004-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Revised: 01/06/2023] [Accepted: 01/10/2023] [Indexed: 03/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many children with pulmonary tuberculosis remain undiagnosed and untreated with related high morbidity and mortality. Recent advances in childhood tuberculosis algorithm development have incorporated prediction modelling, but studies so far have been small and localised, with limited generalisability. We aimed to evaluate the performance of currently used diagnostic algorithms and to use prediction modelling to develop evidence-based algorithms to assist in tuberculosis treatment decision making for children presenting to primary health-care centres. METHODS For this meta-analysis, we identified individual participant data from a WHO public call for data on the management of tuberculosis in children and adolescents and referral from childhood tuberculosis experts. We included studies that prospectively recruited consecutive participants younger than 10 years attending health-care centres in countries with a high tuberculosis incidence for clinical evaluation of pulmonary tuberculosis. We collated individual participant data including clinical, bacteriological, and radiological information and a standardised reference classification of pulmonary tuberculosis. Using this dataset, we first retrospectively evaluated the performance of several existing treatment-decision algorithms. We then used the data to develop two multivariable prediction models that included features used in clinical evaluation of pulmonary tuberculosis-one with chest x-ray features and one without-and we investigated each model's generalisability using internal-external cross-validation. The parameter coefficient estimates of the two models were scaled into two scoring systems to classify tuberculosis with a prespecified sensitivity target. The two scoring systems were used to develop two pragmatic, treatment-decision algorithms for use in primary health-care settings. FINDINGS Of 4718 children from 13 studies from 12 countries, 1811 (38·4%) were classified as having pulmonary tuberculosis: 541 (29·9%) bacteriologically confirmed and 1270 (70·1%) unconfirmed. Existing treatment-decision algorithms had highly variable diagnostic performance. The scoring system derived from the prediction model that included clinical features and features from chest x-ray had a combined sensitivity of 0·86 [95% CI 0·68-0·94] and specificity of 0·37 [0·15-0·66] against a composite reference standard. The scoring system derived from the model that included only clinical features had a combined sensitivity of 0·84 [95% CI 0·66-0·93] and specificity of 0·30 [0·13-0·56] against a composite reference standard. The scoring system from each model was placed after triage steps, including assessment of illness acuity and risk of poor tuberculosis-related outcomes, to develop treatment-decision algorithms. INTERPRETATION We adopted an evidence-based approach to develop pragmatic algorithms to guide tuberculosis treatment decisions in children, irrespective of the resources locally available. This approach will empower health workers in primary health-care settings with high tuberculosis incidence and limited resources to initiate tuberculosis treatment in children to improve access to care and reduce tuberculosis-related mortality. These algorithms have been included in the operational handbook accompanying the latest WHO guidelines on the management of tuberculosis in children and adolescents. Future prospective evaluation of algorithms, including those developed in this work, is necessary to investigate clinical performance. FUNDING WHO, US National Institutes of Health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kenneth S Gunasekera
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
| | - Olivier Marcy
- Inserm UMR1219, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement EMR 271, GHiGS, University of Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France
| | - Johanna Muñoz
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Elisa Lopez-Varela
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça, Maputo, Mozambique; Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Tygerberg, South Africa
| | | | - Molly F Franke
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Maryline Bonnet
- University of Montpellier, TransVIHMI, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Inserm, Montpellier, France; Epicentre, Mbarara, Uganda
| | - Shakil Ahmed
- Department of Paediatrics, Dhaka Medical College Hospital, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Farhana Amanullah
- Indus Hospital & Health Network, Karachi, Pakistan; The Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Aliya Anwar
- Indus Hospital & Health Network, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Orvalho Augusto
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça, Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Rafaela Baroni Aurilio
- Instituto de Puericultura e Pediatria Martagao Gesteira, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Sayera Banu
- Programme on Emerging Infections, Infectious Disease Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Iraj Batool
- Indus Hospital & Health Network, Karachi, Pakistan
| | | | - Kevin P Cain
- US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Lucía Carratalá-Castro
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça, Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Maxine Caws
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK; Birat Nepal Medical Trust, Lazmipat, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Eleanor S Click
- US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Lisa M Cranmer
- Department of Pediatrics, Emory School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA; Department of Epidemiology, Emory Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, USA; Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Alberto L García-Basteiro
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça, Maputo, Mozambique; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Anneke C Hesseling
- Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Tygerberg, South Africa
| | - Julie Huynh
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Centre for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Senjuti Kabir
- Programme on Emerging Infections, Infectious Disease Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Leonid Lecca
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Socios En Salud Surcursal Perú, Lima, Perú
| | - Anna Mandalakas
- Global TB Program, Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children's Hospital, Houston, TX, USA; Clinical Infectious Disease Group, German Center for Infectious Research, Clinical TB Unit, Research Center Borstel, Borstel, Germany
| | | | - Aye Aye Myint
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Medicine, Mandalay, Myanmar
| | - Kyaw Myo
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Medicine, Magway, Myanmar
| | - Dorah Nampijja
- Department of Paediatrics, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda
| | - Mark P Nicol
- Division of Infection and Immunity, Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Patrick Orikiriza
- Epicentre, Mbarara, Uganda; Department of Microbiology, Division of Basic Medical Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Global Health Equity, Kigali, Rwanda
| | - Megan Palmer
- Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Tygerberg, South Africa
| | | | - Sara Ahmed Siddiqui
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Indus Hospital & Health Network, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Jonathan P Smith
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Rinn Song
- Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Oxford Vaccine Group, Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Nguyen Thuy Thuong Thuong
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Centre for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Vibol Ung
- University of Health Sciences, Phnom Penh, Cambodia; National Pediatric Hospital, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Marieke M van der Zalm
- Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Tygerberg, South Africa
| | | | - Kerri Viney
- Global Tuberculosis Programme, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland; School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Elisabetta G Walters
- Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Tygerberg, South Africa; Directorate of Integrated Laboratory Medicine, Institute of Human Genetics, Newcastle upon Tyne NHS Foundation Trust, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Joshua L Warren
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Heather J Zar
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Red Cross Children's Hospital, and SA-MRC Unit on Child and Adolescent Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Ben J Marais
- The Children's Hospital at Westmead Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Stephen M Graham
- Department of Paediatrics and Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Thomas P A Debray
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Ted Cohen
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - James A Seddon
- Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Tygerberg, South Africa; Department of Infectious Diseases, Imperial College London, London, UK
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