A preliminary probabilistic nomogram model for predicting renal arteriolar damage in IgA nephropathy from clinical parameters

Background

IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is a significant contributor to chronic kidney disease (CKD). Renal arteriolar damage is associated with IgAN prognosis. However, simple tools for predicting arteriolar damage of IgAN remain limited. We aim to develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting renal arteriolar damage in IgAN patients.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 547 cases of biopsy-proven IgAN patients. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and logistic regression were applied to screen for factors associated with renal arteriolar damage in patients with IgAN. A nomogram was developed to evaluate the renal arteriolar damage in patients with IgAN. The performance of the proposed nomogram was evaluated based on a calibration plot, ROC curve (AUC) and Harrell's concordance index (C-index).

Results

In this study, patients in the arteriolar damage group had higher levels of age, mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum creatinine, serum urea nitrogen, serum uric acid, triglycerides, proteinuria, tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis (T1-2) and decreased eGFR than those without arteriolar damage. Predictors contained in the prediction nomogram included age, MAP, eGFR and serum uric acid. Then, a nomogram model for predicting renal arteriolar damage was established combining the above indicators. Our model achieved well-fitted calibration curves and the C-indices of this model were 0.722 (95%CI 0.670-0.774) and 0.784 (95%CI 0.716-0.852) in the development and validation groups, respectively.

Conclusion

With excellent predictive abilities, the nomogram may be a simple and reliable tool to predict the risk of renal arteriolar damage in patients with IgAN.

Increased serum uric acid levels are associated to renal arteriolopathy and predict poor outcome in IgA nephropathy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common primary glomerulonephritis worldwide and a leading cause of end stage renal disease (ESRD). In addition to classical progression factors, other atherosclerosis-related factors, including hyperuricemia (HU), have been associated to the renal progression of IgAN. Increased serum uric acid (SUA) levels are well known to be concomitant of cardiovascular and kidney diseases, and have been proposed to be implicated in the development of arteriolar damage (AD). The aim of the present study was to explore the correlation between SUA levels, renal damage and its implication for outcome in IgAN patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Clinical, laboratory and histologic data of 145 patients with biopsy proven IgAN were collected and retrospectively analyzed to determine the correlation between SUA levels, renal damage and the primary outcome (death or ESRD). Biopsy-proven AD was defined by the presence of arteriolar hyalinosis and/or intimal thickening. HU, defined as the highest SUA gender-specific tertile, was >7.7 mg/dl for males and >6.2 mg/dl for females. The prevalence of AD increased with the increase in the SUA level tertiles (p = 0.02). At logistic regression analysis SUA was independently related to the presence of AD (OR 1.75 [95%CI 1.10-2.93], p = 0.03). HU and AD had a synergic impact on progression of IgAN. Patients having both AD and HU, showed a reduced survival free from the primary outcome as compared to those having only one risk factor or neither (p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

SUA levels are independently associated with AD and poor prognosis in patients with IgAN.