Chronic respiratory disease: an unrecognized risk factor in dialysis

Metabolic Acidosis and Cardiovascular Disease in CKD

Rationale & Objective

Metabolic acidosis related to chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with an accelerated decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and the development of end-stage kidney disease. Whether metabolic acidosis is associated with cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with CKD is unclear.

Study Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting & Participants

The Optum De-identified Electronic Health Records Dataset, 2007–2017, was used to generate a cohort of patients with non-dialysis-dependent CKD who had at least 3 estimated GFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m². Patients with metabolic acidosis (serum bicarbonate 12 to <22 mEq/L) or normal serum bicarbonate (22‒29 mEq/L) at baseline were identified by 2 consecutive measurements 28‒365 days apart.

Predictor

Serum bicarbonate as a continuous variable.

Outcome

Primary outcome was a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE+). Secondary outcomes included individual components of the composite outcome.

Analytical Approach

Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate the association between 1-mEq/L increments in serum bicarbonate and MACE+.

Results

A total of 51,558 patients were evaluated, 34% had metabolic acidosis. The median follow-up period was 3.9–4.5 years, depending on the outcome assessed. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for MACE+ was 0.964 (95% CI, 0.961–0.968). For the individual components of incident heart failure (HF), stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and CV death, HRs were 0.98 (95% CI, 0.97–0.98), 0.98 (95% CI, 0.97–0.99), 0.96 (95% CI, 0.96–0.97), and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.93–0.94), respectively, for every 1-mEq/L increase in serum bicarbonate.

Limitations

Possible residual confounding.

Conclusions

Metabolic acidosis in CKD is associated with an increased risk of MACE+ as well as the individual components of incident HF, stroke, MI, and CV death. Randomized controlled trials evaluating treatments for the correction of metabolic acidosis in CKD to prevent CV events are needed.

Nocardiosis in renal transplant patients

Renal transplant patients are immunosuppressed and are at increased risk of opportunistic infections, including Nocardia infection. In renal transplant patients, information on the incidence and risk factors associated with nocardiosis is limited. To address the incidence and risk factors associated with nocardiosis in a large renal transplant population, we used the US Renal Data System (USRDS). Sequelae of allograft failure or rejection after infection were also examined. Demographics, clinical risk factors, Nocardia diagnosis, and allograft failure following Nocardia infection were queried in USRDS renal transplant patients using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes in billing claims and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Form 2728. Generalized linear models were used to determine the risk factors associated with nocardiosis, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association of risk factors with graft failure among patients with Nocardia infection. Of 203,233 renal transplant recipients identified from 2001 to 2011, 657 (0.32%) were diagnosed with Nocardia infection. Pneumonia was the most frequent presentation (15.2%), followed by brain abscess (8.4%). Numerous factors associated with increased Nocardia infection included age >65 years (OR=2.10, 95% CI 1.71 to 2.59), history of transplant failure (OR=1.28, CI 1.02 to 1.60) or history of rejection (OR=4.83, CI 4.08 to 5.72), receipt of a deceased donor transplant (OR=1.23, CI 1.03 to 1.46), and treatment with basiliximab (OR=1.25, CI 1.00 to 1.55), cyclosporine (OR=1.30, CI 1.03 to 1.65), tacrolimus (OR=2.45, CI 2.00 to 3.00), or thymoglobulin (OR=1.89, CI 1.59 to 2.25). In patients with nocardiosis administration of antithymocyte globulin (HR=2.76), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR=2.47), and presentation of Nocardia infection with brain abscess (HR=1.85) were associated with an increased risk of graft failure. This study provides new information to enhance early recognition and targeted treatment of nocardiosis in renal transplant patients.

A simple score to predict early death after kidney transplantation

BACKGROUND

Few studies have focused on risk stratification for premature death after transplantation. However, stratification of individual risk is an essential step in personalized care.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We have developed a risk score of early post-transplant death (ORLY score) in a prospective multicentre cohort including 942 patients and validated our model in a retrospective independent replication cohort including 874 patients.

RESULTS

60 patients (6.4%) from the prospective cohort died during the first three-year post-transplant. Age, male gender, diabetes, dialysis duration and chronic respiratory failure were associated with early post-transplant death. The multivariable model exhibited good discrimination ability (C-index = 0.78, 95%CI [0.75-0.81]). ORLY score highly predicted early death after transplantation (1.34; 95%CI, 1.22 to 1.48 for each increase of 1 point in score; P < .001). The predictive value of the score in the validation cohort was close to that observed in the experimental cohort (1.41; 95%CI, 1.27 to 1.56 for each increase of 1 point in score; P < .001). Merging the two cohorts, four categories of risk could be individualized: low, 0-5 (n = 522, mean risk, 1%); intermediate, 6-7 (n = 739, mean risk 4.7%); moderate, 8-10 (n = 429, mean risk 10%); and high risk 11-15 (n = 132, mean risk 19%).

CONCLUSIONS

The ORLY score discriminates patients with high risk of early death.