Prevalence of nephropathy in the German diabetes population-Is early referral to nephrological care a realistic demand today?

Development and Validation of a Model That Predicts the Risk of Diabetic Nephropathy in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients: A Cross-Sectional Study

Purpose

To develop a nomogram model that predicts the risk of diabetic nephropathy (DN) incidence in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients.

Methods

We collect information from electronic medical record systems. The data were split into a training set (n=521) containing 73.8% of patients and a validation set (n=185) holding the remaining 26.2% of patients based on the date of data collection. Stepwise and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to screen out DN risk factors. A predictive model including selected risk factors was developed by logistic regression analysis. The results of binary logistic regression are presented through forest plots and nomogram. Lastly, the c-index, calibration plots, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the accuracy of the nomogram in internal and external validation. The clinical benefit of the model was evaluated by decision curve analysis.

Results

Predictors included serum creatinine (Scr), hypertension, glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), and Diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN). Harrell's C-indexes were 0.773 (95% CI:0.726-0.821) and 0.758 (95% CI:0.679-0.837) in the training and validation sets, respectively. Decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that the novel nomogram was clinically valuable.

Conclusion

Our simple nomogram with seven factors may help clinicians predict the risk of DN incidence in patients with T2DM.

Prevalence of Diabetic Nephropathy among Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in China: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

BACKGROUND

Diabetic nephropathy (DN) is an important cause of end-stage renal disease and is recognized as a public health problem worldwide. However, there have been no nationwide surveys of DN prevalence in China. This study is aimed at estimating the pooled prevalence of DN among patients with type 2 diabetes in China.

METHODS

Published studies on the prevalence of DN among patients with type 2 diabetes published from January 1980 to October 2019 were systematically reviewed using PubMed, Embase, Google Scholar, Chinese Wanfang databases, and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure. The pooled prevalence of DN was estimated with the random effects model using R software. Prevalence estimates were also stratified by study design, methodological approach, and study population characteristics.

RESULTS

Thirty studies with a total of 79,364 participants were included in our study. The overall pooled prevalence of DN was 21.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 18.5-25.4%]. Subgroup analysis found that the prevalence of DN varied significantly according to different DM and DN diagnostic criteria (P < 0.05); the pooling estimate was the highest in the west region of 41.3%, followed by that in the east region of China with 22.3%, northeast region with 20.7%, and central region with 15.6% (P < 0.05); the pooling estimate was the highest in the west region of 41.3%, followed by that in the east region of China with 22.3%, northeast region with 20.7%, and central region with 15.6% (P < 0.05); the pooling estimate was the highest in the west region of 41.3%, followed by that in the east region of China with 22.3%, northeast region with 20.7%, and central region with 15.6% (.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of DN is high in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes and shows geographic and gender variation. These data indicate that national strategies aimed at primary and secondary prevention of DN and screening programs for DN are urgently needed to reduce the risk and burden of DN in China.