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Vergari C, Kim Y, Takemoto M, Tokuyasu H, Shimizu Y, Tanaka C, Fukae S, Fujibayashi S, Matsuda S. The relationship between spino-pelvic-hip mobility and quality of life before and after total hip arthroplasty. Arch Orthop Trauma Surg 2024; 144:1379-1387. [PMID: 37847287 DOI: 10.1007/s00402-023-05094-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 09/30/2023] [Indexed: 10/18/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Total hip arthroplasty (THA) can significantly improve quality of life (QOL) in patients with hip osteoarthritis. A relationship exists between activity levels and postoperative QOL, but its determinants are not well known. The aim of this work was to investigate the relationship between hip, pelvis and lumbar spine mobility and alignment before and after THA with QOL. MATERIAL AND METHODS Consecutive patients with hip arthrosis and an indication for THA were included prospectively between July 2019 and December 2020, and they underwent lateral radiographs in free-standing, extension, relaxed- and flexed-seated position. Spinopelvic and hip parameters were measured, as well as their changes between positions to assess hip, pelvis and lumbar spine mobility. Patients were also administered QOL questionnaires. Data were collected preoperatively and 6 and 12 months postoperatively. RESULTS Seventy patients were included; QOL significantly increased 6 months after THA (from 18 [10; 27] to 61 [48; 72], p < 0.001). QOL further increased by 10 points or more after 6 months in 18% of patients, while it decreased in 16%. The latter showed higher pelvic range of motion (between flexion and extension) than the former. CONCLUSIONS This study confirmed that QOL is significantly improved by THA, and that spinopelvic alignment and function can play a role. Future work should elucidate how to better predict postoperative QOL from preoperative patient characteristics to improve patient treatment and establish early postoperative physical therapy for patients who could benefit from postoperative improvement of activity-related QOL.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claudio Vergari
- Institut de Biomécanique Humaine Georges Charpak, Arts et Métiers Institute of Technology, Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, 151 Bd de L'Hôpital, 75013, Paris, France.
| | - Youngwoo Kim
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Kyoto City Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Mitsuru Takemoto
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Kyoto City Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | | | - Yu Shimizu
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Kyoto City Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Chiaki Tanaka
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Gakkentoshi Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Shunya Fukae
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Kyoto City Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Shunsuke Fujibayashi
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, 54 Shogoin-Kawaharacho, Sakyo-Ku, Kyoto, 606-8507, Japan
| | - Shuichi Matsuda
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, 54 Shogoin-Kawaharacho, Sakyo-Ku, Kyoto, 606-8507, Japan
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Kawahara T, Shiba K, Tsuchiya A. Application of Causal Inference Methods in the Analysis of Observational Neurosurgical Data: G-Formula and Marginal Structural Model. World Neurosurg 2022; 161:310-315. [PMID: 35505549 DOI: 10.1016/j.wneu.2021.09.141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2021] [Revised: 09/30/2021] [Accepted: 09/30/2021] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE When using observational data to estimate the causal effects of a treatment on clinical outcomes, we need to adjust for confounding. In the presence of time-dependent confounders that are affected by previous treatment, adjustments cannot be made via the conventional regression approach or propensity score-based methods, but requires sophisticated methods called g-methods. We aimed to introduce g-methods to estimate the causal effects of treatment strategies defined by treatment at multiple time points, such as treat 2 days versus treat only day 1 versus never-treat. METHODS Two g-methods were introduced: the g-formula and inverse probability-weighted marginal structural models. Under exchangeability, consistency, and positivity assumptions, they provide a consistent estimate of the causal effects of the treatment strategy. RESULTS Using a numeric example that mimics the observational study data, we presented how the g-formula and inverse probability-weighted marginal structural models can estimate the effect of the treatment strategy. CONCLUSIONS Both g-formula and inverse probability-weighted marginal structural models can correctly estimate the effect of the treatment strategy under 3 identifiability assumptions, which conventional regression analysis cannot. G-methods may assist in estimating the effect of treatment strategy defined by treatment at multiple time points.
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Affiliation(s)
- Takuya Kawahara
- Clinical Research Promotion Center, University of Tokyo Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
| | - Koichiro Shiba
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Asuka Tsuchiya
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Tokai University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Health Economics, School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
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Cafarella P, Effing T, Chur-Hansen A. Interventions targeting psychological well-being for motor neuron disease carers: A systematic review. Palliat Support Care 2022; 21:1-17. [PMID: 35287783 DOI: 10.1017/s1478951522000311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This systematic review considers interventions designed to improve the psychological well-being (PWB) of carers of people with motor neuron disease (MND) using quantitative, qualitative, or mixed-methods studies, and aimed to (1) summarize current research, (2) assess the quality of evidence, and (3) evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. METHOD Mixed-methods systematic review (MMSR) was conducted based on Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for quantitative, qualitative, and mixed-methods reviews and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. RESULTS Thirteen papers met the inclusion criteria, including 12 studies (six mixed-methods, four quantitative, and two qualitative). Four studies described randomized controlled trials, seven detailed uncontrolled longitudinal studies with a single treatment group and a pre-post design, and one was an observational survey. Critical appraisal of the studies revealed a wide range of weaknesses in the quantitative and/or qualitative methodologies. Due to the heterogeneity of interventions, outcomes, and measurements, a narrative and convergent approach to data synthesis was employed. While a minority of studies demonstrated some benefits to hedonic and eudaimonic aspects of PWB, the interpretability of these data was limited by methodological problems. SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS This MMSR highlighted a paucity of quality research regarding interventions for the PWB of MND carers. Although some benefits to PWB were demonstrated, most studies suffered from substantial methodological problems, rendering the overall evidence base low. High-quality and carefully designed studies are a priority to enable effective development and testing of much-needed interventions targeting the PWB for MND carers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul Cafarella
- School of Psychology, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Flinders Medical Centre, Southern Adelaide Local Health Network, South Australia, Australia
- College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
- College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Tanja Effing
- School of Psychology, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Anna Chur-Hansen
- School of Psychology, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
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Parola R, Ganta A, Egol KA, Konda SR. Trauma Risk Score Matching for Observational Studies in Orthopedic Trauma. Injury 2022; 53:440-444. [PMID: 34916032 DOI: 10.1016/j.injury.2021.12.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2021] [Revised: 11/27/2021] [Accepted: 12/01/2021] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To determine if matching by trauma risk score is non-inferior to matching by chronic comorbidities and/or a combination of demographic and patient characteristics in observational studies of acute trauma in a hip fracture model. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study SETTING: Level-1 Trauma Center PATIENTS: 1,590 hip fracture [AO/OTA 31A and 31B] patients age 55 and over treated between October 2014 and February 2020 at 4 hospitals within a single academic medical center. INTERVENTION Repeatedly matching randomized subsets of patients by (1) Score for Trauma Triage in Geriatric and Middle-Aged (STTGMA), (2) Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), or (3) a combination of sex, age, CCI and body mass index (BMI). MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS "Matching failures" where rate of significant differences in variables of matched cohorts exceeds the 5% expected by chance. RESULTS STTGMA and combination matching resulted in no "matching failures". Matching by CCI alone resulted in "matching failures" of BMI, ASA class, STTGMA, major complications, sepsis, pneumonia, acute respiratory failure, and 90-day readmission. CONCLUSIONS STTGMA matching in observational cohort studies is less likely to yield significant differences of demographics and outcomes than CCI matching. STTGMA matching is noninferior to matching a combination of demographic variables optimized for each treatment cohort. STTGMA matching is apt to reflect equipoise of health at admission and outcome likelihood in observational cohort studies of orthopedic trauma, while maintaining consistent weighting of demographic and injury characteristic variables that may expand the generalizability of these studies. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Level III.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rown Parola
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, NYU Langone Orthopedic Hospital, New York, NY
| | - Abhishek Ganta
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, NYU Langone Orthopedic Hospital, New York, NY; Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Jamaica Hospital Medical Center, New York, NY
| | - Kenneth A Egol
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, NYU Langone Orthopedic Hospital, New York, NY; Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Jamaica Hospital Medical Center, New York, NY
| | - Sanjit R Konda
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, NYU Langone Orthopedic Hospital, New York, NY; Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Jamaica Hospital Medical Center, New York, NY.
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Johnson AM, Baker KS, Haviland MJ, Syrjala KL, Abbey-Lambertz M, Chow EJ, Mendoza JA. A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial of a Fitbit- and Facebook-Based Physical Activity Intervention for Young Adult Cancer Survivors. J Adolesc Young Adult Oncol 2021; 11:379-388. [PMID: 34677081 PMCID: PMC9419976 DOI: 10.1089/jayao.2021.0056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Purpose: Most young adult cancer survivors (YACS) do not meet physical activity (PA) guidelines. Although PA can improve health and quality of life (QOL), few randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of PA interventions for YACS exist. We conducted a pilot RCT to test feasibility of a PA intervention among YACS. Methods: We recruited 18-39-year-olds (≥1 and <5 years postcancer therapy) from Seattle Cancer Care Alliance. The 12-week intervention involved a wrist-worn PA-tracking device (Fitbit), a peer-based Facebook support group, step count goal setting, and a self-selected support "buddy." Controls received Fitbit only. Baseline assessments occurred before randomization; follow-up assessments occurred during intervention weeks 10-12. Feasibility criteria are listed below. Exploratory outcomes included PA, sedentary time (ST), QOL measures (e.g., fatigue), and self-determination theory (SDT) construct measures. Results: All feasibility criteria were met: We recruited 50 YACS, intervention participants wore the Fitbit on the majority of intervention days (82.9%), ≥75% of participants completed questionnaires at baseline (100%) and follow-up (93.9%). Exploratory analyses, adjusted for wave, accelerometer wear time, race, and income, showed significant group differences for change in ST (-52.4 vs. 2.5 minutes/day; p = 0.002) but no change in moderate-to-vigorous intensity PA (0.0 vs. -0.2 minutes/day; p = 0.40), comparing intervention participants to controls. The intervention (vs. control) group had a greater increase in fatigue interference (p = 0.03). No other significant differences in SDT or QOL measures were found. Conclusion: This Fitbit and Facebook-based PA intervention was feasible to YACS, with promising effects on reducing ST, and warrants a fully powered RCT. Clinical Trial Registration no.: NCT03233581.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ashleigh M Johnson
- Center for Child Health, Behavior, and Development, Seattle Children's Research Institute, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - K Scott Baker
- Center for Child Health, Behavior, and Development, Seattle Children's Research Institute, Seattle, Washington, USA.,Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.,University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | - Karen L Syrjala
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.,University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Mark Abbey-Lambertz
- Center for Child Health, Behavior, and Development, Seattle Children's Research Institute, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Eric J Chow
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.,University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Jason A Mendoza
- Center for Child Health, Behavior, and Development, Seattle Children's Research Institute, Seattle, Washington, USA.,Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.,University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Racial Disparities Affecting Postoperative Outcomes After Brain Tumor Resection. World Neurosurg 2021; 155:e665-e673. [PMID: 34478887 DOI: 10.1016/j.wneu.2021.08.112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2021] [Revised: 08/24/2021] [Accepted: 08/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To investigate racial disparities in 30-day postoperative outcomes of craniotomy for glioma resection. METHODS 2006-2019 American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program files were queried for all patients who underwent a craniotomy for a supratentorial glioma resection. Racial disparities in preoperative variables were studied between the demographic cohorts of Asian, African Americans, Hispanics, and Caucasian. Fisher exact tests were used to examine association of preoperative variables with race. Multivariable logistic regression models, adjusted for all preoperative variables associated with race, were used to determine the odds ratios of postoperative outcomes for each demographic cohort in comparison with Caucasian patients. RESULTS A total of 12,544 patients were identified: 4% Asian, 5% African American, 7% Hispanic, and 85% Caucasian. African American patients had significantly higher adjusted odds than Caucasian patients of major adverse cardiovascular events (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.827, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.155-2.891, P = 0.01), pulmonary events (aOR: 1.683, 95% CI: 1.145-2.473, P = 0.008), and urinary tract infection (aOR: 2.016, 95% CI: 1.221-3.327, P = 0.006). Asian patients had significantly higher odds than Caucasian patients of requiring a transfusion (aOR: 2.094, 95% CI: 1.343-3.266, P = 0.001). All demographic cohorts had higher odds of having an extended length of stay than Caucasian patients. CONCLUSIONS African American patients who undergo a craniotomy for glioma resection have almost twice the odds of Caucasian patients of having a postoperative major cardiovascular complication, pulmonary complication, or urinary tract infection. All minority groups have higher odds of an extended length of stay as compared with Caucasian patients.
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Stumpo V, Staartjes VE, Quddusi A, Corniola MV, Tessitore E, Schröder ML, Anderer EG, Stienen MN, Serra C, Regli L. Enhanced Recovery After Surgery strategies for elective craniotomy: a systematic review. J Neurosurg 2021; 135:1857-1881. [PMID: 33962374 DOI: 10.3171/2020.10.jns203160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2020] [Accepted: 10/26/2020] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) has led to a paradigm shift in perioperative care through multimodal interventions. Still, ERAS remains a relatively new concept in neurosurgery, and there is no summary of evidence on ERAS applications in cranial neurosurgery. METHODS The authors systematically reviewed the literature using the PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane Library databases for ERAS protocols and elements. Studies had to assess at least one pre-, peri-, or postoperative ERAS element and evaluate at least one of the following outcomes: 1) length of hospital stay, 2) length of ICU stay, 3) postoperative pain, 4) direct and indirect healthcare cost, 5) complication rate, 6) readmission rate, or 7) patient satisfaction. RESULTS A final 27 articles were included in the qualitative analysis, with mixed quality of evidence ranging from high in 3 cases to very low in 1 case. Seventeen studies reported a complete ERAS protocol. Preoperative ERAS elements include patient selection through multidisciplinary team discussion, patient counseling and education to adjust expectations of the postoperative period, and mental state assessment; antimicrobial, steroidal, and antiepileptic prophylaxes; nutritional assessment, as well as preoperative oral carbohydrate loading; and postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) prophylaxis. Anesthesiology interventions included local anesthesia for pin sites, regional field block or scalp block, avoidance or minimization of the duration of invasive monitoring, and limitation of intraoperative mannitol. Other intraoperative elements include absorbable skin sutures and avoidance of wound drains. Postoperatively, the authors identified early extubation, observation in a step-down unit instead of routine ICU admission, early mobilization, early fluid de-escalation, early intake of solid food and liquids, early removal of invasive monitoring, professional nutritional assessment, PONV management, nonopioid rescue analgesia, and early postoperative imaging. Other postoperative interventions included discharge criteria standardization and home visits or progress monitoring by a nurse. CONCLUSIONS A wide range of evidence-based interventions are available to improve recovery after elective craniotomy, although there are few published ERAS protocols. Patient-centered optimization of neurosurgical care spanning the pre-, intra-, and postoperative periods is feasible and has already provided positive results in terms of improved outcomes such as postoperative pain, patient satisfaction, reduced length of stay, and cost reduction with an excellent safety profile. Although fast-track recovery protocols and ERAS studies are gaining momentum for elective craniotomy, prospective trials are needed to provide stronger evidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vittorio Stumpo
- 2Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Neurosurgery, Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Victor E Staartjes
- 1Machine Intelligence in Clinical Neuroscience (MICN) Laboratory, Department of Neurosurgery, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital Zurich, University of Zurich, Switzerland
- 2Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Neurosurgery, Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Ayesha Quddusi
- 3Center for Neuroscience, Queens University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada
| | - Marco V Corniola
- 4Department of Neurosurgery, Geneva University Hospital (HUG), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Enrico Tessitore
- 4Department of Neurosurgery, Geneva University Hospital (HUG), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Marc L Schröder
- 5Department of Neurosurgery, Bergman Clinics Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Erich G Anderer
- 6Department of Neurosurgery, NYU Langone Hospital Brooklyn, New York; and
| | - Martin N Stienen
- 1Machine Intelligence in Clinical Neuroscience (MICN) Laboratory, Department of Neurosurgery, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital Zurich, University of Zurich, Switzerland
- 7Department of Neurosurgery, Cantonal Hospital St. Gallen, Switzerland
| | - Carlo Serra
- 1Machine Intelligence in Clinical Neuroscience (MICN) Laboratory, Department of Neurosurgery, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital Zurich, University of Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Luca Regli
- 1Machine Intelligence in Clinical Neuroscience (MICN) Laboratory, Department of Neurosurgery, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital Zurich, University of Zurich, Switzerland
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Borges H, Hesse AM, Kraut A, Couté Y, Brun V, Burger T. Well Plate Maker: A user-friendly randomized block design application to limit batch effects in largescale biomedical studies. Bioinformatics 2021; 37:2770-2771. [PMID: 33538793 DOI: 10.1093/bioinformatics/btab065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2020] [Revised: 12/09/2020] [Accepted: 01/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
SUMMARY Many factors can influence results in clinical research, in particular bias in the distribution of samples prior to biochemical preparation. Well Plate Maker is a user-friendly application to design single- or multiple-well plate assays. It allows multiple group experiments to be randomized and therefore helps to reduce possible batch effects. Although primarily fathered to optimize the design of clinical sample analysis by high throughput mass spectrometry (e.g. proteomics or metabolomics), it includes multiple options to limit edge-of-plate effects, to incorporate control samples, or to limit cross-contamination. It thus fits the constraints of many experimental fields. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION Well Plate Maker is implemented in R and available at Bioconductor repository (https://bioconductor.org/packages/wpm) under the open source Artistic 2.0 license. In addition to classical scripting, it can be used through a graphical user interface, developed with Shiny technology. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hélène Borges
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CEA, Inserm, BGE U1038, Grenoble, 38000, France
| | - Anne-Marie Hesse
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CEA, Inserm, BGE U1038, Grenoble, 38000, France
| | - Alexandra Kraut
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CEA, Inserm, BGE U1038, Grenoble, 38000, France
| | - Yohann Couté
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CEA, Inserm, BGE U1038, Grenoble, 38000, France
| | - Virginie Brun
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CEA, Inserm, BGE U1038, Grenoble, 38000, France
| | - Thomas Burger
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CEA, Inserm, BGE U1038, Grenoble, 38000, France.,CNRS, BIG FR3425, Grenoble, 38000, France
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Forest Fire Probability Mapping in Eastern Serbia: Logistic Regression versus Random Forest Method. FORESTS 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/f12010005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Forest fire risk has increased globally during the previous decades. The Mediterranean region is traditionally the most at risk in Europe, but continental countries like Serbia have experienced significant economic and ecological losses due to forest fires. To prevent damage to forests and infrastructure, alongside other societal losses, it is necessary to create an effective protection system against fire, which minimizes the harmful effects. Forest fire probability mapping, as one of the basic tools in risk management, allows the allocation of resources for fire suppression, within a fire season, from zones with a lower risk to those under higher threat. Logistic regression (LR) has been used as a standard procedure in forest fire probability mapping, but in the last decade, machine learning methods such as fandom forest (RF) have become more frequent. The main goals in this study were to (i) determine the main explanatory variables for forest fire occurrence for both models, LR and RF, and (ii) map the probability of forest fire occurrence in Eastern Serbia based on LR and RF. The most important variable was drought code, followed by different anthropogenic features depending on the type of the model. The RF models demonstrated better overall predictive ability than LR models. The map produced may increase firefighting efficiency due to the early detection of forest fire and enable resources to be allocated in the eastern part of Serbia, which covers more than one-third of the country’s area.
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