Did youth smoking behaviors change before and after the shutdown of Minnesota Youth Tobacco Prevention Initiative?

The role of public policies in reducing smoking: the Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco policy model

BACKGROUND

Following the landmark lawsuit and settlement with the tobacco industry, Minnesota pursued the implementation of stricter tobacco control policies, including tax increases, mass media campaigns, smokefree air laws, and cessation treatment policies. Modeling is used to examine policy effects on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.

PURPOSE

To estimate the effect of tobacco control policies in Minnesota on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model.

METHODS

Minnesota data starting in 1993 are applied to SimSmoke, a simulation model used to examine the effect of tobacco control policies over time on smoking initiation and cessation. Upon validating the model against smoking prevalence, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 on smoking prevalence. Using standard attribution methods, SimSmoke also estimates deaths averted as a result of the policies.

RESULTS

SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2011. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 29% by 2011 and of 41% by 2041 can be attributed to tobacco control policies, mainly tax increases, smokefree air laws, media campaigns, and cessation treatment programs. Moreover, 48,000 smoking-attributable deaths will be averted by 2041.

CONCLUSIONS

Minnesota SimSmoke demonstrates that tobacco control policies, especially taxes, have substantially reduced smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Taxes, smokefree air laws, mass media, cessation treatment policies, and youth-access enforcement contributed to the decline in prevalence and deaths averted, with the strongest component being taxes. With stronger policies, for example, increasing cigarette taxes to $4.00 per pack, Minnesota's smoking rate could be reduced by another 13%, and 7200 deaths could be averted by 2041.

The Minnesota Adolescent Community Cohort Study: design and baseline results

The Minnesota Adolescent Community Cohort (MACC) Study is a population-based, longitudinal study that enrolled 3,636 youth from Minnesota and 605 youth from comparison states ages 12 to 16 years in 2000-2001. Participants have been surveyed by telephone semi-annually about their tobacco-related attitudes and behaviors. The goals of the study are to evaluate the effects of the Minnesota Youth Tobacco Prevention Initiative and its shutdown on youth smoking patterns, and to better define the patterns of development of tobacco use in adolescents. A multilevel sample was constructed representing individuals, local jurisdictions and the entire state, and data are collected to characterize each of these levels. This paper presents the details of the multilevel study design. We also provide baseline information about MACC participants including demographics and tobacco-related attitudes and behaviors. This paper describes variability in smoking prevalence and demographic characteristics for local units, and compares MACC participants to the state as a whole.