The Effect of Smallpox and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin Vaccination on the Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 Infection in Guinea-Bissau and Denmark

A Risk Management Approach to Global Pandemics of Infectious Disease and Anti-Microbial Resistance

Pandemics of infectious disease and growing anti-microbial resistance (AMR) pose major threats to global health, trade, and security. Conflict and climate change compound and accelerate these threats. The One Health approach recognizes the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health, but is grounded in the biomedical model, which reduces health to the absence of disease. Biomedical responses are insufficient to meet the challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic is the most recent example of the failure of this biomedical model to address global threats, the limitations of laboratory-based surveillance, and the exclusive focus on vaccination for disease control. This paper examines the current paradigm through the lens of polio and the global campaign to eradicate it, as well as other infectious threats including mpox and drug-resistant tuberculosis, particularly in the context of armed conflict. Decades before vaccines became widely available, public health measures-ventilation, chlorination, nutrition and sanitation- led to longer, healthier, and even taller lives. Chlorine, our primary tool of public health, conquered cholera and transformed infection control in hospitals. The World Health Organization (WHO), part of the One Health alliance, focuses mainly on antibiotics and vaccines to reduce deaths due to superbugs and largely ignores the critical role of chlorine to control water-borne diseases (including polio) and other infections. Moreover, the One Health approach ignores armed conflict. Contemporary wars are characterized by indiscriminate bombing of civilians, attacks targeting healthcare, mass displacement and lack of humanitarian access, conditions which drive polio outbreaks and incubate superbugs. We discuss the growing trend of attacks on healthcare and differentiate between types: community-driven attacks targeting vaccinators in regions like Pakistan, and state-sponsored attacks by governments such as those of Syria and Russia that weaponize healthcare to deliberately harm whole populations. Both fuel outbreaks of disease. These distinct motivations necessitate tailored responses, yet the WHO aggregates these attacks in a manner that hampers effective intervention. While antimicrobial resistance is predictable, the escalating pandemic is the consequence of our reliance on antibiotics and commitment to a biomedical model that now borders on pathological. Our analysis reveals the international indenture to the biomedical model as the basis of disease control is the root driver of AMR and vaccine-derived polio. The unique power of vaccines is reduced by vaccination-only strategy, and in fact breeds vaccine-derived polio. The non-specific effects of vaccines must be leveraged, and universal vaccination must be supplemented by international investment in water chlorination. This will reduce health costs and strengthen global health security. While vaccines are an important weapon to combat pandemics and AMR, they must be accompanied by the entire arsenal of public health interventions

The mark of success: The role of vaccine-induced skin scar formation for BCG and smallpox vaccine-associated clinical benefits

Skin scar formation following Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) or smallpox (Vaccinia) vaccination is an established marker of successful vaccination and 'vaccine take'. Potent pathogen-specific (tuberculosis; smallpox) and pathogen-agnostic (protection from diseases unrelated to the intentionally targeted pathogen) effects of BCG and smallpox vaccines hold significant translational potential. Yet despite their use for centuries, how scar formation occurs and how local skin-based events relate to systemic effects that allow these two vaccines to deliver powerful health promoting effects has not yet been determined. We review here what is known about the events occurring in the skin and place this knowledge in the context of the overall impact of these two vaccines on human health with a particular focus on maternal-child health.

The association between BCG scars and self-reported chronic diseases: A cross-sectional observational study within an RCT of Danish health care workers

INTRODUCTION

The live-attenuated vaccines Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) and Vaccinia have been associated with beneficial non-specific effects. We assessed the prevalence of BCG and Vaccinia vaccine scars in a cohort of Danish health care workers and investigated the association between the presence of vaccine scars and self-reported chronic diseases.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study utilizing baseline data collected during 2020-2021 at enrollment in a BCG trial aiming to assess the effect of BCG vaccination on absenteeism and infectious disease morbidity during the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. In Denmark, Vaccinia was discontinued in 1977, and BCG was phased out in the early 1980s. We used logistic regression analysis (adjusted for sex, birth year, and smoking status) to estimate the association between scar status and chronic diseases, providing adjusted Odds Ratios (aORs) with 95 % Confidence Intervals, for participants born before 1977, and born from 1965 to 1976.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 1218 participants (206 males; 1012 females) with a median age of 47 years (Q1-Q3: 36-56). Among participants born 1965-1976 (n = 403), who experienced the phase-outs, having BCG and/or Vaccinia scar(s) vs. having no vaccine scars yielded an aOR of 0.51 (0.29-0.90) of self-reported chronic disease; an effect primarily driven by BCG. In the same birth cohort, having vaccine scar(s) was most strongly associated with a lower prevalence of chronic respiratory and allergic diseases; the aORs being 0.39 (0.16-0.97) and 0.39 (0.16-0.91), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Having a BCG scar was associated with a lower prevalence of self-reported chronic disease.

Exploring HIV Vaccine Progress in the Pre-Clinical and Clinical Setting: From History to Future Prospects

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) continues to pose a significant global health challenge, with millions of people affected and new cases emerging each year. While various treatment and prevention methods exist, including antiretroviral therapy and non-vaccine approaches, developing an effective vaccine remains the most crucial and cost-effective solution to combating the HIV epidemic. Despite significant advancements in HIV research, the HIV vaccine field has faced numerous challenges, and only one clinical trial has demonstrated a modest level of efficacy. This review delves into the history of HIV vaccines and the current efforts in HIV prevention, emphasizing pre-clinical vaccine development using the non-human primate model (NHP) of HIV infection. NHP models offer valuable insights into potential preventive strategies for combating HIV, and they play a vital role in informing and guiding the development of novel vaccine candidates before they can proceed to human clinical trials.

Does Early Childhood BCG Vaccination Improve Survival to Midlife in a Population With a Low Tuberculosis Prevalence? Quasi-experimental Evidence on Nonspecific Effects From 32 Swedish Birth Cohorts

The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine for tuberculosis (TB) is widely used globally. Many high-income countries discontinued nationwide vaccination policies starting in the 1980s as the TB prevalence decreased. However, there is continued scientific interest in whether the general childhood immunity boost conferred by the BCG vaccination impacts adult health and mortality in low-TB contexts (known as nonspecific effects). While recent studies have found evidence of an association between BCG vaccination and survival to ages 34-45, it is unclear whether these associations are causal or driven by the unobserved characteristics of those who chose to voluntarily vaccinate. We use the abrupt discontinuation of mandatory BCG vaccination in Sweden in 1975 as a natural experiment to estimate the causal nonspecific effect of the BCG vaccine on cohort survival to midlife. Applying two complementary study designs, we find no evidence that survival to age 40 was affected by the discontinuation of childhood BCG vaccination. The results are consistent among both males and females and are robust to several sensitivity tests. Overall, despite prior correlational studies suggesting large nonspecific effects, we do not find any population-level evidence for a nonspecific effect of the BCG vaccine discontinuation on survival to age 40 in Sweden.

The global landscape of smallpox vaccination history and implications for current and future orthopoxvirus susceptibility: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than four decades after the eradication of smallpox, the ongoing 2022 monkeypox outbreak and increasing transmission events of other orthopoxviruses necessitate a greater understanding of the global distribution of susceptibility to orthopoxviruses. We aimed to characterise the current global landscape of smallpox vaccination history and orthopoxvirus susceptibility.

METHODS

We characterised the global landscape of smallpox vaccination at a subnational scale by integrating data on current demography with historical smallpox vaccination programme features (coverage and cessation dates) from eradication documents and published literature. We analysed this landscape to identify the factors that were most associated with geographical heterogeneity in current vaccination coverage. We considered how smallpox vaccination history might translate into age-specific susceptibility profiles for orthopoxviruses under different vaccination effectiveness scenarios.

FINDINGS

We found substantial global spatial heterogeneity in the landscape of smallpox vaccination, with vaccination coverage estimated to range from 7% to 60% within admin-1 regions (ie, regions one administrative level below country) globally, with negligible uncertainty (99·6% of regions have an SD less than 5%). We identified that geographical variation in vaccination coverage was driven mostly by differences in subnational demography. Additionally, we found that susceptibility for orthopoxviruses was highly age specific based on age at cessation and age-specific coverage; however, the age profile was consistent across vaccine effectiveness values.

INTERPRETATION

The legacy of smallpox eradication can be observed in the current landscape of smallpox vaccine protection. The strength and longevity of smallpox vaccination campaigns globally, combined with current demographic heterogeneity, have shaped the epidemiological landscape today, revealing substantial geographical variation in orthopoxvirus susceptibility. This study alerts public health decision makers to non-endemic regions that might be at greatest risk in the case of widespread and sustained transmission in the 2022 monkeypox outbreak and highlights the importance of demography and fine-scale spatial dynamics in predicting future public health risks from orthopoxviruses.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health and US National Science Foundation.

Beneficial non-specific effects of live vaccines against COVID-19 and other unrelated infections

Live attenuated vaccines could have beneficial, non-specific effects of protecting against vaccine-unrelated infections, such as BCG protecting against respiratory infection. During the COVID-19 pandemic, testing of these effects against COVID-19 was of interest to the pandemic control programme. Non-specific effects occur due to the broad effects of specific live attenuated vaccines on the host immune system, relying on heterologous lymphocyte responses and induction of trained immunity. Knowledge of non-specific effects has been developed in randomised controlled trials and observational studies with children, but examining of whether the same principles apply to adults and older adults was of interest to researchers during the pandemic. In this Personal View, we aim to define a framework for the analysis of non-specific effects of live attenuated vaccines against vaccine-unrelated infections with pandemic potential using several important concepts. First, study endpoints should prioritise severity of infection and overall patient health rather than incidence of infection only (eg, although several trials found no protection of the BCG vaccine against COVID-19 infection, it is associated with lower overall mortality than placebo). Second, revaccination of an individual with the same live attenuated vaccine could be the most effective strategy against vaccine-unrelated infections. Third, coadministration of several live attenuated vaccines might enhance beneficial non-specific effects. Fourth, the sequence of vaccine administration matters; the live attenuated vaccine should be the last vaccine administered before exposure to the pandemic infection and non-live vaccines should not be administered afterwards. Fifth, live attenuated vaccines could modify the immune response to specific COVID-19 vaccines. Finally, non-specific effects of live attenuated vaccines should always be analysed with subgroup analysis by sex of individuals receiving the vaccines.

“The Good, the Bad and the Ugly”: Interplay of Innate Immunity and Inflammation

Innate immunity recognizes microorganisms through certain invariant receptors named pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) by sensing conserved pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). Their recognition activates several signaling pathways that lead the transcription of inflammatory mediators, contributing to trigger a very rapid inflammatory cascade aiming to contain the local infection as well as activating and instructing the adaptive immunity in a specific and synchronized immune response according to the microorganism. Inflammation is a coordinated process involving the secretion of cytokines and chemokines by macrophages and neutrophils leading to the migration of other leukocytes along the endothelium into the injured tissue. Sustained inflammatory responses can cause deleterious effects by promoting the development of autoimmune disorders, allergies, cancer, and other immune pathologies, while weak signals could exacerbate the severity of the disease. Therefore, PRR-mediated signal transduction must be tightly regulated to maintain host immune homeostasis. Innate immunity deficiencies and strategies deployed by microbes to avoid inflammatory responses lead to an altered immune response that allows the pathogen to proliferate causing death or uncontrolled inflammation. This review analyzes the complexity of the immune response at the beginning of the disease focusing on COVID-19 disease and the importance of unraveling its mechanisms to be considered when treating diseases and designing vaccines.

Trained Immunity Contribution to Autoimmune and Inflammatory Disorders

A dysregulated immune response toward self-antigens characterizes autoimmune and autoinflammatory (AIF) disorders. Autoantibodies or autoreactive T cells contribute to autoimmune diseases, while autoinflammation results from a hyper-functional innate immune system. Aside from their differences, many studies suggest that monocytes and macrophages (Mo/Ma) significantly contribute to the development of both types of disease. Mo/Ma are innate immune cells that promote an immune-modulatory, pro-inflammatory, or repair response depending on the microenvironment. However, understanding the contribution of these cells to different immune disorders has been difficult due to their high functional and phenotypic plasticity. Several factors can influence the function of Mo/Ma under the landscape of autoimmune/autoinflammatory diseases, such as genetic predisposition, epigenetic changes, or infections. For instance, some vaccines and microorganisms can induce epigenetic changes in Mo/Ma, modifying their functional responses. This phenomenon is known as trained immunity. Trained immunity can be mediated by Mo/Ma and NK cells independently of T and B cell function. It is defined as the altered innate immune response to the same or different microorganisms during a second encounter. The improvement in cell function is related to epigenetic and metabolic changes that modify gene expression. Although the benefits of immune training have been highlighted in a vaccination context, the effects of this type of immune response on autoimmunity and chronic inflammation still remain controversial. Induction of trained immunity reprograms cellular metabolism in hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), transmitting a memory-like phenotype to the cells. Thus, trained Mo/Ma derived from HSCs typically present a metabolic shift toward glycolysis, which leads to the modification of the chromatin architecture. During trained immunity, the epigenetic changes facilitate the specific gene expression after secondary challenge with other stimuli. Consequently, the enhanced pro-inflammatory response could contribute to developing or maintaining autoimmune/autoinflammatory diseases. However, the prediction of the outcome is not simple, and other studies propose that trained immunity can induce a beneficial response both in AIF and autoimmune conditions by inducing anti-inflammatory responses. This article describes the metabolic and epigenetic mechanisms involved in trained immunity that affect Mo/Ma, contraposing the controversial evidence on how it may impact autoimmune/autoinflammation conditions.

Heterologous vaccine interventions: boosting immunity against future pandemics

While vaccines traditionally have been designed and used for protection against infection or disease caused by one specific pathogen, there are known off-target effects from vaccines that can impact infection from unrelated pathogens. The best-known non-specific effects from an unrelated or heterologous vaccine are from the use of the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine, mediated partly through trained immunity. Other vaccines have similar heterologous effects. This review covers molecular mechanisms behind the heterologous effects, and the potential use of heterologous vaccination in the current COVID-19 pandemic. We then discuss novel pandemic response strategies based on rapidly deployed, widespread heterologous vaccination to boost population-level immunity for initial, partial protection against infection and/or clinical disease, while specific vaccines are developed.

Optimize Prime/Boost Vaccine Strategies: Trained Immunity as a New Player in the Game

Most vaccines require multiple doses to induce long-lasting protective immunity in a high frequency of vaccines, and to ensure strong both individual and herd immunity. Repetitive immunogenic stimulations not only increase the intensity and durability of adaptive immunity, but also influence its quality. Several vaccine parameters are known to influence adaptive immune responses, including notably the number of immunizations, the delay between them, and the delivery sequence of different recombinant vaccine vectors. Furthermore, the initial effector innate immune response is key to activate and modulate B and T cell responses. Optimization of homologous and heterologous prime/boost vaccination strategies requires a thorough understanding of how vaccination history affects memory B and T cell characteristics. This requires deeper knowledge of how innate cells respond to multiple vaccine encounters. Here, we review how innate cells, more particularly those of the myeloid lineage, sense and respond differently to a 1st and a 2nd vaccine dose, both in an extrinsic and intrinsic manner. On one hand, the presence of primary specific antibodies and memory T cells, whose critical properties change with time after priming, provides a distinct environment for innate cells at the time of re-vaccination. On the other hand, innate cells themselves can exert enhanced intrinsic antimicrobial functions, long after initial stimulation, which is referred to as trained immunity. We discuss the potential of trained innate cells to be game-changers in prime/boost vaccine strategies. Their increased functionality in antigen uptake, antigen presentation, migration, and as cytokine producers, could indeed improve the restimulation of primary memory B and T cells and their differentiation into potent secondary memory cells in response to the boost. A better understanding of trained immunity mechanisms will be highly valuable for harnessing the full potential of trained innate cells, to optimize immunization strategies.

Heterologous Immunity: Role in Natural and Vaccine-Induced Resistance to Infections

The central paradigm of vaccination is to generate resistance to infection by a specific pathogen when the vacinee is re-exposed to that pathogen. This paradigm is based on two fundamental characteristics of the adaptive immune system, specificity and memory. These characteristics come from the clonal specificity of T and B cells and the long-term survival of previously-encountered memory cells which can rapidly and specifically expand upon re-exposure to the same specific antigen. However, there is an increasing awareness of the concept, as well as experimental documentation of, heterologous immunity and cross-reactivity of adaptive immune lymphocytes in protection from infection. This awareness is supported by a number of human epidemiological studies in vaccine recipients and/or individuals naturally-resistant to certain infections, as well as studies in mouse models of infections, and indeed theoretical considerations regarding the disproportional repertoire of available T and B cell clonotypes compared to antigenic epitopes found on pathogens. Heterologous immunity can broaden the protective outcomes of vaccinations, and natural resistance to infections. Besides exogenous microbes/pathogens and/or vaccines, endogenous microbiota can also impact the outcomes of an infection and/or vaccination through heterologous immunity. Moreover, utilization of viral and/or bacterial vaccine vectors, capable of inducing heterologous immunity may also influence the natural course of many infections/diseases. This review article will briefly discuss these implications and redress the central dogma of specificity in the immune system.

Phase-out of smallpox vaccination and the female/male HIV-1 prevalence ratio: an ecological study from Guinea-Bissau

OBJECTIVE

In Guinea-Bissau, West Africa, we observed that having a smallpox vaccination scar was associated with lower HIV-1 prevalence, more strongly for women than men. If this represents a causal effect, the female/male HIV-1 prevalence ratio would increase for birth cohorts no longer receiving smallpox vaccination due to the phase-out of this vaccine.

DESIGN

An ecological design using HIV surveys and information about smallpox vaccination coverage.

SETTING

Urban and rural Guinea-Bissau.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants in HIV surveys were grouped into an age group with decreasing smallpox vaccination coverage (15-34 years) and an age group with steady smallpox vaccination coverage (≥35 years).

INTERVENTIONS

The exposure of interest was the phase-out of the smallpox vaccine in Guinea-Bissau.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

HIV-1 prevalence.

RESULTS

At both sites, the female/male HIV-1 prevalence ratio increased by calendar time for the age group with decreasing smallpox vaccination coverage; the combined female/male HIV-1 prevalence ratio among people aged 15-34 years was 1.00 (95% CI 0.17 to 5.99) in 1987-1990, 1.16 (95% CI 0.69 to 1.93) in 1996-1997, 2.32 (95% CI 1.51 to 3.56) in 2006-2007 (p value for no trend=0.04). There was no increase in the female-to-male HIV-1 prevalence ratio for the age group >35 years with steady smallpox vaccination coverage; 1.93 (95% CI 0.40 to 9.25) in 1987-1990, 1.32 (95% CI 0.83 to 2.10) in 1996-1997, 0.81 (95% CI 0.56 to 1.16) in 2006-2007 (p value for no trend=0.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Thus, data was compatible with the deduction that the phase-out of smallpox vaccination may have increased the susceptibility to HIV-1 relatively more for women than men. Hence, phasing out smallpox vaccination may have contributed to the global increase in the female/male HIV-1 prevalence ratio among young individuals. Due to the potential fallacies of ecological studies, the results should be interpreted carefully, and this hypothesis needs further assessment. If the hypothesis is true, studies of smallpox vaccination could inform HIV-1 vaccine research.

Stopping live vaccines after disease eradication may increase mortality

Several live vaccines may have beneficial non-specific effects (NSEs) reducing mortality more than can be explained by the prevention of the target infection, a phenomenon which has been linked to innate immune training. Most randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of oral polio vaccine (OPV) and measles vaccine (MV) have shown a large reduction in mortality that must have been at least partly nonspecific because it was much larger than the reduction explained by prevention of the target disease. Hence, stopping a live vaccine after disease-eradication could have negative health effects if the potential beneficial NSEs are not considered. We reviewed one eradicated disease, smallpox, and two infections likely to be eradicated in coming decades, polio and measles. No study was made of unintended effects of stopping smallpox vaccination when it happened in 1980. We have subsequently documented in both Guinea-Bissau and Denmark that smallpox-vaccinated individuals continued to have a survival advantage long after smallpox had been eradicated. The few studies which have examined the effect of OPV on survival all suggest strong beneficial NSEs; in RCTs, OPV compared with inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) has been associated with non-specific reductions in morbidity. RCTs, natural experiments and observational studies have found strong beneficial NSEs for MV. Hence, the imminent eradication of polio and the planned stop of OPV in 2024 and the subsequent eradication of measles infection and the possible stop to live MV could have negative effects for child survival. Before live vaccines are phased out, potential unintended effects of stopping these vaccines should be thoroughly studied.

Developing the concept of beneficial non-specific effect of live vaccines with epidemiological studies

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological and immunological studies are increasingly reporting non-specific effects (NSEs) of vaccines; i.e. vaccines may affect the risk and severity of non-targeted infections. We reviewed how epidemiological studies developed the concept of beneficial NSEs of live vaccines.

SOURCES

This is a personal narrative of how we came to pursue the concept of NSEs in studies of measles vaccine (MV) from the late 1970s. We also searched Pubmed for epidemiological studies of nonspecific/non-specific effects (NSEs) of the most common human vaccines.

CONTENT

When smallpox vaccine was introduced around 1800, bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) against tuberculosis in the 1920s and oral polio vaccine (OPV) in the 1960s, there were suggestions that these live attenuated vaccines reduced mortality more than expected. However, scientific follow-up was limited and the concept of beneficial NSEs did not become mainstream. We observed beneficial NSEs after MV was introduced in low-income countries in the 1970s. Subsequent observational studies and randomized trials confirmed beneficial NSEs of smallpox vaccine, BCG and OPV. Recently, beneficial NSEs have been claimed for the non-live diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis and rabies vaccines. However, no non-live vaccine has yet been documented to produce beneficial NSEs.

IMPLICATIONS

Observational and experimental research has shown beneficial NSEs of four live attenuated vaccines: smallpox vaccine, BCG, OPV and MV. With immunological evidence now supporting the epidemiological observations, it is urgent to take both the specific and NSEs into account in the planning of vaccination programmes.

Long-term effects of smallpox vaccination on expression of the HIV-1 co-receptor CCR5 in women

Background

Smallpox vaccinations were stopped globally in 1980. Recent studies have shown that in women, being smallpox vaccinated was associated with a reduced risk of HIV infection compared with not being smallpox vaccinated. At the initial infection, HIV-1 most often uses CCR5 as a co-receptor to infect the T-lymphocytes. We therefore investigated whether smallpox vaccination is associated with a down-regulation of CCR5 on the surface of peripheral T-lymphocytes in healthy women in Guinea-Bissau.

Methods

We included HIV seronegative women from Bissau, Guinea-Bissau, born before 1974, with and without a smallpox vaccination scar. Blood samples were stabilised in a TransFix buffer solution and stained for flow cytometry according to a T-cell maturation profile.

Results

Ninety-seven women were included in the study; 52 with a smallpox vaccination scar and 45 without a scar. No association between smallpox vaccination scar and CCR5 expression was found in any T-lymphocyte subtype.

Conclusion

Among HIV seronegative women, being smallpox vaccinated more than 40 years ago was not associated with a down-regulation of CCR5 receptors on the surface of peripheral T-lymphocytes.