Trends of acute myocardial infarction morbidity and case fatality in East Germany since 1970

Trends in incidence, case-fatality and recurrence of myocardial infarction in the Danish MONICA population 1982-1991

BACKGROUND

Growing awareness of risk factors for myocardial infarction (MI), continuous mass campaigns on lifestyle factors, increasing use of heart rehabilitation and improved treatment should imply decreases in the incidence, case-fatality and recurrence rates of MI. The purpose of the study was to assess trends in the incidence, case-fatality and recurrence rate of MI and to analyse whether any changes seen were due to a period or a cohort effect.

METHODS

The Danish MONICA population comprises all men and women aged 25-74 years in the period 1982-1991 living in a suburban area of Copenhagen, Denmark. Fatal and non-fatal attacks classified as definite MI and non-fatal attacks classified as possible MI were included. The incidence rate was analysed by Poisson regression, the case-fatality rate by logistic regression, and the rate of recurrence by Cox regression. Age-period-cohort analyses were carried out according to a method described by Clayton and Schifflers.

RESULTS

During the 10-year period a significant decrease in the incidence rate of MI was seen for men and women and for the rate of recurrent MI. The decrease in incidence and recurrence could not unambiguously be ascribed to a period or cohort effect. The rate of case-fatality after a first MI was not changed significantly during the period, whereas men and women had different trends in case-fatality after recurrent MI.

CONCLUSIONS

In accordance with results from other Western countries we found a decline in the incidence and recurrence rate of MI. Contrary, the lack of a decrease in the case-fatality rate after a first MI was unexpected and difficult to explain.

The contribution of medical care to changing life expectancy in Germany and Poland

This paper assesses the impact of medical care on changes in mortality in east Germany and Poland before and after the political transition, with west Germany included for comparison. Building upon Rutstein's concept of unnecessary untimely deaths, we calculated the contribution of conditions considered responsive to medical care or health policy to changes in life expectancy between birth and age 75 [e(0-75)] for the periods 1980/1983-1988 and 1991/1992-1996/1997. Temporary life expectancy, between birth and age 75, has been consistently higher in west Germany, intermediate in east Germany and lowest in Poland. Although improving in all three regions between the early 1980s and the late 1990s, the pace of change differed between countries, resulting in a temporary widening of an initial east-west gap by the late 1980s and early 1990s. In the 1980s, in east Germany, 50-60% of the improvement was attributable to declining mortality from conditions responsive to medical care (west Germany: 30-40%). A net positive effect was also observed in Poland, although counterbalanced by deterioration in ischaemic heart disease mortality.In the former communist countries, improvements attributable to medical care in the 1980s were due, largely, to declining infant mortality. In the 1990s, they benefited also adults, specifically those aged 35+ in Poland and 55+ in Germany. A persisting east-west gap in temporary life expectancy in Germany was due, largely, to higher mortality from avoidable conditions in the east, with causes responsive to health policy contributing about half, and medical care 16% (men) to 24% (women) to the differential in 1997. The findings indicate that changes in the health care system related to the political transition were associated with improvements in life expectancy in east Germany and, to a lesser extent, in Poland. Also, differences in the quality of medical care as assessed by the concept of "unnecessary untimely deaths" appear to contribute to a persisting east-west health gap. Especially in Poland and the former German Democratic Republic there remains potential for further progress that would narrow the health gap with the west.

Decreasing mortality from acute myocardial infarctions: effect of attack rates and case severity

Mortality from myocardial infarction (MI) has declined in many countries and the reasons for the decline have not been fully quantified. We used the database of the Halifax County MONICA Project to test the hypothesis that the decline of in-hospital mortality from MI can be explained by a trend toward less severe disease as opposed to improved treatment. During the study period 1984-1993, 14,130 people aged 25-74 had been admitted to hospital with suspected MI. Of these, 3774 were diagnosed as definite MI by standardized criteria (480 fatal). For each patient, clinical history, serial cardiac enzymes, and ECG treatment regimen during hospital stay were extracted from patient charts. Survival status 28 days after onset of symptoms was determined. A severity index predicting 28-day case fatality was derived from health status at admission time. During the study period the rate of definite MI in the MONICA target population showed a general downward trend from 221 to 179 per 100,000/year (p = 0.0002). The severity index increased during the observation time (p < 0.0001), predicting 25% higher mortality. Case fatality fluctuated, but showed a marginally significant decline. We conclude that part of the decreased in-hospital mortality from MI is due to lower attack rates. The remainder occurred despite increased case severity and is possibly due to improved in-hospital treatment.

Coronary heart disease mortality, morbidity, and case fatality in five east and west German cities 1985-1989. Acute Myocardial Infarction Register Teams of Augsburg, Bremen, Chemnitz, Erfurt, and Zwickau

Cardiovascular mortality (CVD; International Classification of Diseases [ICD] 390-458) is higher in East than in West Germany, but the differences in official coronary heart disease mortality (CHD; ICD 410-414) are not so pronounced. The aim of this study was to validate the official mortality statistics based on the five German AMI registers and to analyze whether these mortality differences are due to differences in the attack rates of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or to differences in the 28-day case fatality rates. This comparison includes the MONICA study cities of Augsburg and Bremen, both in West Germany, as well as the cities of Chemnitz, Erfurt, and Zwickau in East Germany (former the German Democratic Republic). The rates were calculated on the basis of all MONICA cases of definite AMI or coronary death aged 35 to 64 years occurring in the respective study populations between 1985 and 1989. All study populations except women in Augsburg showed higher coronary death rates compared to the rates based on the official cause of death statistics (ICD 410-414), but this difference was significant only for men in Chemnitz. In men there were no significant differences in the register-based coronary death rates between these urban areas (160/100,000 in Zwickau to 170/100,000 in Chemnitz) nor in the AMI attack rates (327/100,000 in Augsburg to 363/100,000 in Chemnitz), and consequently no significant center differences in the overall 28-day case fatality. However, the prehospital case fatality was significantly higher in Erfurt (34%) than in Bremen (27%). There were no significant differences in the AMI attack rates in women as well (60/100,000 in Chemnitz to 70/100,000 in Bremen and Erfurt), but the overall 28-day case fatality showed a clear gradient from the East (61-71%) to the West German cities (48-56%) and therefore also the register-based coronary death rates (38-50/100,000 and 34-38/100,000, respectively). However, the higher 28-day case fatality in women found in the MONICA registers in East compared to West Germany is not reflected in the CHD mortality statistics because of a stronger underestimation of the official mortality rates and in East than in West Germany, in particular in women. Nevertheless, the total mortality rates and in most cases also the CVD mortality rates were in women significantly higher in the East German compared to the West German cities. The East German official preunification CHD mortality data cannot be used for national and international comparisons. The results of the MONICA AMI registers in East and West Germany indicate, furthermore, the need to improve coronary care in women in the eastern part of the country. Nevertheless, because of the relatively high AMI attack rate in both parts of Germany primary prevention must generally be intensified.

Life expectancy in Germany: possible reasons for the increasing gap between East and West Germany

The current life expectancy of East and West Germans is different. After the late 1980s, life expectancy at birth in both regions, which was comparable in the early 1950s, became almost three years lower in East Germany. Life-table calculations of German birth cohorts since 1900 revealed that a difference between the groups in cardiovascular disease prevalence was associated with the difference in life expectancy. Whereas migration, environmental pollution, and health-care differences accounted for only a small part of the gap, evidence emerged that lifestyle and social patterns may have caused the less favourable trend in cardiovascular disease. The life-expectancy curve has flattened in East Germany while continuously increasing in West Germany. During the 1960s and 1970s, such opposite trends were due to steeply increasing blood-pressure and cholesterol levels in East Germany and more favourable social development in West Germany--a better average social class (higher educational levels and a lower proportion of working-class individuals), a higher gross national product, and a higher proportion of GNP spent on health. Both the cardiovascular-risk-factor trends and the social gradient have contributed to the gap between the populations of East and West Germany in life expectancy.

Trend of cardiovascular risk factors in the East German population 1968-1992

The deteriorating trend of life expectance since the mid 1970s, mainly due to higher cardiovascular mortality in the East compared to West Germany, requires explanations about what happened to the cardiovascular risk factor profile in the East. Epidemiologic studies in the East German population have been performed for about 25 years and can justify a first answer to the question, whether the opening gap in life expectancy could be attributable to a deteriorating cardiovascular risk factor profile of the 25-64 year old population. During a review process reliable epidemiological studies in the East German population have been identified to describe sequential changes from 1968 to 1992 in systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP) total cholesterol (CHOL), body mass index (BMI) and cigarette smoking in five periods of time. The mean SBP increased in males of higher age groups, whereas it dropped in females in all age groups in this period of time. The mean CHOL showed a striking increase in both sexes and levelled off in the mid 1980s only. The mean BMI increased slightly in men of the middle age groups and remained almost unchanged in women. The prevalence of cigarette smoking increased in both sexes until the 1970s, and declined thereafter in the age groups over 40, however, there is an increasing tendency in young age groups and females after the wall came down. These trends are congruent with the hypothesis, that the increasingly unfavourable trend of life expectancy in East Germany (compared to the continuously improving trend in West Germany) is at least partly attributable to the trend of the cardiovascular risk factor profile.