Health and politics for 2015 and beyond

Food insecurity and social protection in Europe: Quasi-natural experiment of Europe's great recessions 2004-2012

Food insecurity rose sharply in Europe after 2009, but marked variation exists across countries and over time. We test whether social protection programs protected people from food insecurity arising from economic hardship across Europe. Data on household food insecurity covering 21 EU countries from 2004 to 2012 were taken from Eurostat 2015 edition and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Cross-national first difference models were used to evaluate how rising unemployment and declining wages related to changes in the prevalence of food insecurity and the role of social protection expenditure in modifying observed effects. Economic hardship was strongly associated with greater food insecurity. Each 1 percentage point rise in unemployment rates was associated with an estimated 0.29 percentage point rise in food insecurity (95% CI: 0.10 to 0.49). Similarly, each $1000 decreases in annual average wages was associated with a 0.62 percentage point increase in food insecurity (95% CI: 0.27 to 0.97). Greater social protection spending mitigated these risks. Each $1000 spent per capita reduced the associations of rising unemployment and declining wages with food insecurity by 0.05 percentage points (95% CI: -0.10 to -0.0007) and 0.10 (95% CI: -0.18 to -0.006), respectively. The estimated effects of economic hardship on food insecurity became insignificant when countries spent more than $10,000 per capita on social protection. Rising unemployment and falling wages are strong statistical determinants of increasing food insecurity, but at high levels of social protection, these associations could be prevented.

Austerity and old-age mortality in England: a longitudinal cross-local area analysis, 2007-2013

Objective

There has been significant concern that austerity measures have negatively impacted health in the UK. We examined whether budgetary reductions in Pension Credit and social care have been associated with recent rises in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over.

Design

Cross-local authority longitudinal study.

Setting

Three hundred and twenty-four lower tier local authorities in England.

Main outcome measure

Annual percentage changes in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years or over.

Results

Between 2007 and 2013, each 1% decline in Pension Credit spending (support for low income pensioners) per beneficiary was associated with an increase in 0.68% in old-age mortality (95% CI: 0.41 to 0.95). Each reduction in the number of beneficiaries per 1000 pensioners was associated with an increase in 0.20% (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.24). Each 1% decline in social care spending was associated with a significant rise in old-age mortality (0.08%, 95% CI: 0.0006–0.12) but not after adjusting for Pension Credit spending. Similar patterns were seen in both men and women. Weaker associations observed for those aged 75 to 84 years, and none among those 65 to 74 years. Categories of service expenditure not expected to affect old-age mortality, such as transportation, showed no association.

Conclusions

Rising mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over were linked to reductions in spending on income support for poor pensioners and social care. Findings suggest austerity measures in England have affected vulnerable old-age adults.

The impact of economic downturns and budget cuts on homelessness claim rates across 323 local authorities in England, 2004-12

Background

It is unclear why rates of homelessness claims in England have risen since 2010. We used variations in rates across local authorities to test the impact of economic downturns and budget cuts.

Methods

Using cross-area fixed effects models of data from 323 UK local authorities between 2004 and 2012, we evaluated associations of changes in statutory homelessness rates with economic activity (Gross Value Added per capita), unemployment, and local and central government expenditure.

Results

Each 10% fall in economic activity was associated with an increase of 0.45 homelessness claims per 1000 households (95% CI: 0.10–0.80). Increasing rates of homelessness were also strongly linked with government reductions in welfare spending. Disaggregating types of welfare expenditure, we found that strongest associations with reduced homelessness claims were spending on social care, housing services, discretionary housing payments and income support for older persons.

Conclusions

Recession and austerity measures are associated with significant increases in rates of homelessness assistance. These findings likely understate the full burden of homelessness as they only capture those who seek aid. Future research is needed to investigate what is happening to vulnerable groups who may not obtain assistance, including those with mental health problems and rough sleepers.