Subclinical synovitis in arthralgia: how often does it result in clinical arthritis? Reflecting on starting points for disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug treatment

Ultrasound in anti-CCP+ at-risk individuals without clinical synovitis: development of a novel 6-joint protocol for feasible risk prediction

OBJECTIVES

To investigate, in anti-CCP antibody-positive individuals with musculoskeletal symptoms but no clinical synovitis (CCP+ at-risk), the additional value of US for the prediction of inflammatory arthritis. Furthermore, to define a concise US protocol for feasible risk prediction.

METHODS

Demographic and clinical data were collected in 417 CCP+ at-risk (Leeds CCP cohort) with a baseline US scan assessing synovitis and bone erosions in 36 joints, and a follow-up duration ≥24 months. Multivariable binary regression models for inflammatory arthritis development at 24 months evaluated routine clinical variables associated with inflammatory arthritis alone ('clinical' model) and combined with a 36-joint US scanning protocol ('clinical-US extended' model). A 'clinical-US short' model was also developed.

RESULTS

At 24 months, 92/417 (22.1%) CCP+ at-risk developed inflammatory arthritis (median time 7 months, interquartile range 3-12). The 'clinical-US extended' model performed better than the 'clinical' model [area under the curve (AUC) 0.788 vs AUC 0.731, respectively, P < 0.001] with an odds ratio for inflammatory arthritis development of 3.18 (95% CI 1.80-5.63) for US synovitis and 2.54 (95% CI 1.21-5.37) for bone erosions. The 'clinical-US short' model, which retained the wrists, knees and MTP5 joints, performed better (AUC 0.782) than the 'clinical' model (P < 0.001) and similarly (difference in Akaike information criteria <2) to the 'clinical-US extended' model.

CONCLUSIONS

US provides valuable information for predicting progression to inflammatory arthritis in CCP+ individuals both alone and in addition to clinical variables. US synovitis was associated with a 3-fold increase risk of inflammatory arthritis development. A concise US protocol of six joints provides clinically feasible risk prediction in CCP+ at-risk.

Factors associated with resolution of ultrasound subclinical synovitis in anti-CCP-positive individuals with musculoskeletal symptoms: a UK prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Subclinical synovitis occurs in a third of individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis. The objective of this study was to assess the reversibility of subclinical synovitis in individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis who are positive for anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) antibody with musculoskeletal symptoms and investigate factors associated with its resolution within 12 months.

METHODS

We conducted a single-centre, prospective, cohort study in the UK, recruiting individuals aged 18 years or older who were anti-CCP-positive with a new non-specific musculoskeletal symptom but no clinical synovitis. Referrals were made through primary or secondary care. Participants attended a baseline visit, which included a clinical assessment, blood tests, patient questionnaires, and a musculoskeletal ultrasound scan (ie, of wrists and metacarpophalangeal, proximal interphalangeal, and metatarsophalangeal joints), and then follow-up visits every 3 months for the first year, with a repeat ultrasound scan every 12 months. Participants with subclinical synovitis (ie, grey scale ≥1 and power Doppler ≥1) in at least one joint at baseline were selected for this analysis. Investigation of good prognostic factors by 12 months was done first using univariable analysis to identify significant factors in participants with no missing data. Then receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to establish the optimal cutoffs for significant continuous variables. Finally, a modified Poisson regression approach was performed to identify the best prediction model and was adjusted for confounders, using data from all participants, with missing values imputed. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02012764.

FINDINGS

Between June 30, 2008, and Feb 24, 2020, 451 participants consented to participate in the CCP study and 122 (27%) individuals had subclinical synovitis at baseline, of whom 90 (74%) had data available at 12 months. Mean age was 54·1 years (SD 12·5), and 63 (70%) of 90 participants were women and 27 (30%) were men. Subclinical synovitis resolved in 43 (48%) of 90 participants, whereas subclinical synovitis persisted in 47 (52%) participants, 27 (57%) of whom developed clinical synovitis within 12 months. In the multivariable analysis, low anti-CCP titre (relative risk [RR] 1·52, 95% CI 1·04-2·22), negative rheumatoid factor (1·54, 0·92-2·58), subclinical synovitis in only one joint (1·62, 1·04-2·50), and an erythrocyte sedimentation rate of 15 mm/h or lower (1·82, 1·15-2·87) were predictors of subclinical synovitis resolution within 12 months (ie, good prognostic factors). ROC curve showed an area under the curve of 0·84 (95% CI 0·76-0·92; p<0·0001). Resolution occurred in seven (100%) of seven participants with all four factors present, and in only one (7%) of 14 participants with none of the factors present.

INTERPRETATION

In individuals who were anti-CCP-positive, subclinical synovitis disappeared in approximately half of the participants by 12 months and was associated with the presence of good prognostic factors. Subclinical synovitis should be interpreted in the context of these additional factors.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research Leeds Biomedical Research Centre.

Rheumatoid arthritis

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic, systemic, autoimmune inflammatory disease that mainly affects the joints and periarticular soft tissues. In this Seminar, we provide an overview of the main aspects of rheumatoid arthritis. Epidemiology and advances in the understanding of rheumatoid arthritis pathogenesis will be reviewed. We will discuss the clinical manifestations of rheumatoid arthritis, classification criteria, and the value of imaging in the diagnosis of the disease. The advent of new medications and the accumulated scientific evidence demand continuous updating regarding the diagnosis and management, including therapy, of rheumatoid arthritis. An increasing number of patients are now able to reach disease remission. This major improvement in the outcome of patients with rheumatoid arthritis has been determined by a combination of different factors (eg, early diagnosis, window of opportunity, treat-to-target strategy, advent of targeted disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, and combination therapy). We will discuss the updated recommendations of the two most influential societies for rheumatology worldwide (ie, the American College of Rheumatology and European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology) for the management of rheumatoid arthritis. Furthermore, controversies (ie, the role of glucocorticoids in the management of rheumatoid arthritis and safety profile of Janus kinase inhibitors) and outstanding research questions, including precision medicine approach, prevention, and cure of rheumatoid arthritis will be highlighted.

Factors associated with subclinical inflammation of wrist joints in rheumatoid arthritis patients with low or no disease activity- a RA ultrasound registry study

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the factors to predict subclinical inflammation of wrist joints in patients with RA who are in clinical remission or low disease activity.

METHODS

Gray scale and power Doppler ultrasound were performed on the dorsal radio-lunate of both wrists. The presence of synovitis, comorbidities, and use of disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs were recorded. A Multivariable forward logistical regression model was used to identify factors associated with subclinical inflammation.

RESULTS

There were 1248 patients (1010 females, 238 males; mean age: 60.0 ± 10.5 years ). 57.4% of patients in complete remission and low disease activity had sonographic inflammation. Multivariable forward logistic regression analysis indicated that male sex, smoking are positively associated with inflammation and that age, alcohol consumption, and use of methotrexate, glucocorticoid, or a biological therapy are negatively associated with inflammation. Use of biological agents decreased the risk of inflammation by 40.9%.

CONCLUSIONS

There was evidence of subclinical inflammation in most patients who were in low or no disease activity, those with biological therapy had lower risk of subclinical inflammation.

An ultrasound negative for subclinical synovitis in arthralgia patients: is it helpful in identifying those not developing arthritis?

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the negative predictive value (NPV) of musculoskeletal US (MSUS) in arthralgia patients at risk for developing inflammatory arthritis.

METHODS

An MSUS examination of hands and feet was performed in arthralgia patients at risk for inflammatory arthritis in four independent cohorts. Patients were followed for one-year on the development of inflammatory arthritis. Subclinical synovitis was defined as greyscale ≥2 and/or power Doppler ≥1. NPVs were determined and compared with the prior risks of not developing inflammatory arthritis. Outcomes were pooled using meta-analyses and meta-regression analyses. In sensitivity analyses, MSUS imaging of tender joints only (rather than the full US protocol) was analysed and ACPA stratification applied.

RESULTS

After 1 year 78, 82, 77 and 72% of patients in the four cohorts did not develop inflammatory arthritis. The NPV of a negative US was 86, 85, 82 and 90%, respectively. The meta-analysis showed a pooled non-inflammatory arthritis prevalence of 79% (95% CI 75%, 83%) and a pooled NPV of 86% (95% CI 81, 89%). Imaging tender joints only (as generally done in clinical practice) and ACPA stratification showed similar results.

CONCLUSION

A negative US result in arthralgia has a high NPV for not developing inflammatory arthritis, which is mainly due to the high a priori risk of not developing inflammatory arthritis. The added value of a negative US (<10% increase) was limited.

When and how should we use imaging in individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis?

In recent years rheumatologists have begun to shift focus from early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to studying individuals at risk of developing the disease. It is now possible to use blood, clinical and imaging biomarkers to identify those at risk of progression before the onset of clinical synovitis. The use of imaging, in particular ultrasound (US) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), has become much more widespread in individuals at-risk of RA. Numerous studies have demonstrated that imaging can help us understand RA pathogenesis as well as identifying individuals at high risk of progression. In addition, imaging techniques are becoming more sophisticated with newer imaging modalities such as high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQRCT), nuclear imaging and whole body-MRI (WB-MRI) starting to emerge. Imaging studies in at risk individuals are heterogeneous in nature due to the different at-risk populations, imaging modalities and protocols used. This review will explore the available imaging modalities and the rationale for their use in the main populations at risk of RA.

Ultrasound in clinically suspect arthralgia: the role of power Doppler to predict rheumatoid arthritis development

Objective

To determine the usefulness of power Doppler (PD) ultrasound (US) to predict rheumatoid arthritis (RA) development in patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA).

Methods

Retrospective analysis of a US unit cohort over a 1-year period. Patients with CSA and no previous diagnosis of inflammatory arthritis (IA) were included for analysis. All underwent bilateral US examination of the hands and/or feet according to the EULAR guidelines. Active US inflammation was defined as PD synovitis and/or tenosynovitis ≥1 at any location. RA diagnosis according to clinician criteria 6 months after the US examination was checked. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were employed to investigate possible predictive factors of RA development.

Results

A total of 110 CSA patients (80 females, mean age 53.6 years) were included for analysis. After 6 months of follow-up, 14 (12.7%) developed RA and 34 (30.9%) IA. US active inflammation was present in 38 (34.5%) patients (28.2% showed PD synovitis and 18.2% PD tenosynovitis). Multivariate analysis showed that ACPA (OR 1.0003; 95% CI 1.002–1.006) and ESR (OR 1.054; 95% CI 1.016–1.094) were significantly associated with the detection of US active inflammation at baseline. Only PD tenosynovitis was found to be an independent predictive factor of an evolution towards RA (OR 6.982; 95% CI 1.106–44.057) and IA (OR 5.360; 95% CI 1.012–28.390).

Conclusion

US is able to detect features of subclinical inflammation in CSA patients, especially in those with higher ESR and ACPA values. Only PD tenosynovitis at baseline US assessment was found to be an independent predictor of RA and IA development in CSA patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13075-021-02685-7.

Ultrasound subclinical synovitis in anti-CCP+ at-risk individuals with MSK symptoms: an important and predictable stage in the RA continuum

Objectives

To investigate whether anti-CCP2-positive at-risk individuals with musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms but without clinical synovitis (CCP2⁺ at-risk) develop US subclinical synovitis before inflammatory arthritis and if US subclinical synovitis can be predicted.

Methods

First, US scans of CCP2⁺ at-risk individuals who developed inflammatory arthritis (‘progressors’) were reviewed for subclinical synovitis prior to inflammatory arthritis development. Patients in whom the pre-progression US scan was negative but the scan was conducted >6 months before progression were excluded. Subsequently, regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of US synovitis in CCP2⁺ at-risk individuals without baseline US abnormalities who had one or more longitudinal US scan and a complete dataset.

Results

US subclinical synovitis was detected in one or more scan in 75 of 97 progressors (77.3%) {median time to inflammatory arthritis development from first evidence of US synovitis 26.5 weeks [interquartile range (IQR) 7–60]}, in whom one or more scan was available, excluding those with a negative scan >6 months from inflammatory arthritis development (n = 38). In 220 CCP2⁺ at-risk individuals with normal baseline US scans, who had one or more longitudinal US scan and a complete dataset, US synovitis was detected in 69/220 (31.4%) [median time to first developing US synovitis 56.4 weeks (IQR 33.0–112.0)]. In the multivariable analysis, only anti-CCP3 antibodies were predictive for the development of US synovitis [odds ratio 4.75 (95% CI 1.97, 11.46); P < 0.01].

Conclusions

In anti-CCP2⁺ at-risk individuals, a stage of subclinical synovitis usually precedes the development of inflammatory arthritis. Anti-CCP2⁺/CCP3⁺ individuals without clinical or US subclinical synovitis may represent the optimal window of opportunity for intervention to prevent joint disease.

What Is the Value of Ultrasound in Individuals 'At-Risk' of Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Do Not Have Clinical Synovitis?

The identification of biomarkers that help identify individuals at imminent risk of progression to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is of crucial importance for disease prevention. In recent years, several studies have highlighted the value of musculoskeletal (MSK) ultrasound (US) in predicting progression to inflammatory arthritis (IA) in individuals ‘at-risk’ of RA. These studies have highlighted the following main aspects: first, in RA-related autoantibody-positive individuals, MSK symptoms seem to develop before ‘sub-clinical’ joint inflammation occurs on US. Second, the detection of ‘sub-clinical’ synovitis (and/or bone erosions) greatly increases the risk of IA development in these ‘at-risk’ individuals. US has a potential key role for better understanding the ‘pre-clinical’ stages in individuals ‘at-risk’ of RA, and for the early identification of those individuals at high risk of developing IA. Further research is needed to address questions on image analysis and standardization. In this review, we provide an overview of the most relevant studies which have investigated the value of US in the prediction of RA development in individuals ‘at-risk’ of RA who have MSK symptoms, but no clinical evidence of IA. We highlight recent insights, limitations, and future perspectives of US use in this important population.