One-year renal outcome in lupus nephritis patients with acute kidney injury: a nomogram model

Construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis after peritoneal dialysis catheterization

Aim

To construct and validate a risk prediction model for the development of peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis (PDAP) in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD).

Methods

This retrospective analysis included patients undergoing PD at the Department of Nephrology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, between January 2016 and January 2021. Baseline data were collected. The primary study endpoint was PDAP occurrence. Patients were divided into a training cohort (n = 264) and a validation cohort (n = 112) for model building and validation. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression was applied to optimize the screening variables. Predictive models were developed using multifactorial logistic regression analysis with column line plots. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests were used to verify and evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the prediction models. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical validity of the prediction models.

Results

Five potential predictors of PDAP after PD catheterization were screened using LASSO regression analysis, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), serum ALBumin (ALB), uric acid (UA), high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and diabetes mellitus (DM). Predictive models were developed by multi-factor logistic regression analysis and plotted in columns. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) values were 0.891 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.829-0.844) and 0.882 (95% CI: 0.722-0.957) for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good fit (p = 0.829 for the training cohort; p = 0.602 for the validation cohort). The DCA curves indicated that the threshold probabilities for the training and validation cohorts were 4-64% and 3-90%, respectively, predicting a good net gain for the clinical model.

Conclusion

NLR, ALB, UA, hsCRP, and DM are independent predictors of PDAP after PD catheterization. The column line graph model constructed based on the abovementioned factors has good discriminatory and calibrating ability and helps to predict the risk of PDAP after PD catheterization.

Clinicopathological Characteristics and Prognosis of Lupus Nephritis Patients with Acute Kidney Injury

INTRODUCTION

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in lupus nephritis (LN) and a risk factor for chronic kidney failure. Here, we aimed to assess the characteristics and prognosis of LN patients with AKI.

METHODS

AKI and AKI severity stages in LN patients were defined by the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) classification. Long-term renal outcomes and patient mortality between different stages of AKI were compared by Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of 1272 LN patients, 225 (17.69%) had AKI and 72 (5.66%) were AKI stage 3. Compared with the non-AKI group, the proportion of male patients was significantly higher in the AKI group (p = 0.002). In addition, there were markedly higher proportions of hematologic system damage, more severe renal manifestations, and higher Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) scores in the AKI group than in the non-AKI group. The active and chronic lesions in renal biopsy were significantly higher in LN patients with AKI than those without AKI. During a median follow-up of 53 months, Kaplan-Meier curve showed that LN patients with AKI stage 3 had significantly poorer long-term renal outcomes (p = 0.002) and patient survival (p < 0.001) than those without AKI. Furthermore, AKI stage 3, but not stage 1 or 2 was significantly associated with adverse renal outcomes (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-6.28, p = 0.048) and all-cause mortality (HR = 2.80, 95% CI: 1.18-6.61, p = 0.019) in LN patients. In patients with AKI, increased baseline serum creatinine and severe glomerular sclerosis were independent risk factors for worse renal outcomes, while higher blood pressure, increased baseline serum creatinine, and anti-Sjogren's syndrome A positivity could indicate poor survival.

DISCUSSION

LN patients with AKI stage 3, but not stages 1 and 2, have poorer long-term renal outcomes and patient survival. Our study demonstrates the importance of early identification and management of AKI in LN patients.

Predictors of treatment outcomes in lupus nephritis with severe acute kidney injury and requirement of dialytic support

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES

Acute kidney injury (AKI) with the requirement of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) portends a poor prognosis for kidney function in lupus nephritis (LN). This study evaluated the kidney function recovery rates, the rates of reinitiation of KRT, and factors associated with these outcomes in LN.

METHOD

All consecutive patients hospitalized for LN with KRT requirement between 2000 and 2020 were included. Their clinical and histopathologic characteristics were retrospectively registered. The outcomes and associated factors were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Among 140 patients, 75 (54%) recovered kidney function, with recovery rates of 50.9% and 54.2% by 6 and 12 months of therapy. The factors associated with a lower probability of recovery included a previous history of LN flares, worse eGFR and higher proteinuria at presentation, immunosuppression with azathioprine, and hospitalizations within 6 months of therapy initiation. There was no difference in the kidney function recovery rates between mycophenolate and cyclophosphamide treatment schemes. Out of 75 patients who recovered kidney function, 37 (49%) reinitiated KRT, with KRT reinitiation rates of 27.2% and 46.5% by 3 and 5 years. Seventy-three (52%) patients had at least one hospitalization within 6 months of initial therapy, 52 (72%) of them secondary to infectious events.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 50% of patients with LN and KRT requirement recover kidney function within 6 months. The risk-to-benefit ratio decisions may be aided by clinical and histological factors. These patients require close follow-up as ≈50% of those who recover kidney function will reinitiate dialysis in the long term. Key Points • Approximately 50% of patients with severe acute lupus nephritis with the need for kidney replacement therapy requirement recover their kidney function. • The factors associated with a lower probability of recovery of kidney function include a previous history of LN flares, worse eGFR and higher proteinuria at presentation, immunosuppression with azathioprine, and hospitalizations within 6 months of therapy initiation. • Patients who recover kidney function will require close follow-up as around 50% of them will eventually reinitiate kidney replacement therapy.

Acute kidney injury requiring kidney replacement therapy in childhood lupus nephritis: a cohort study of the Pediatric Nephrology Research Consortium and Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in lupus nephritis (LN) and a risk factor for development of chronic kidney disease. In adults with LN, AKI severity correlates with the incidence of kidney failure and patient survival. Data on AKI outcomes in children with LN, particularly those requiring kidney replacement therapy (KRT), are limited.

METHODS

A multicenter, retrospective cohort study was performed in children diagnosed between 2010 and 2019 with LN and AKI stage 3 treated with dialysis (AKI stage 3D). Descriptive statistics were used to characterize demographics, clinical data, and kidney biopsy findings; treatment data for LN were not included. Logistic regression was used to examine the association of these variables with kidney failure.

RESULTS

Fifty-nine patients (mean age 14.3 years, 84.7% female) were identified. The most common KRT indications were fluid overload (86.4%) and elevated blood urea nitrogen/creatinine (74.6%). Mean follow-up duration was 3.9 ± 2.9 years. AKI recovery without progression to kidney failure occurred in 37.3% of patients. AKI recovery with later progression to kidney failure occurred in 25.4% of patients, and there was no kidney recovery from AKI in 35.6% of patients. Older age, severe (> 50%) tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis, and National Institutes of Health (NIH) chronicity index score > 4 on kidney biopsy were associated with kidney failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Children with LN and AKI stage 3D have a high long-term risk of kidney failure. Severe tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis at the time of AKI, but not AKI duration, are predictive of kidney disease progression. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Risk factors of disease flares in a Chinese lupus cohort with low-grade disease activity

OBJECTIVE

Recurrent disease flare is one of the key problems in lupus patients. A Chinese Flare-Prevention Lupus Initiative Cohort (FLIC) was established. Risk factors of disease flare were evaluated accordingly.

METHODS

Patients with low-grade disease activity (the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment-SLE Disease Activity Index (SELENA-SLEDAI) =≤6, daily prednisone ≤20 mg, no British Isles Lupus Assessment Group A or no more than one B organ domain score) from January 2014 to August 2020 were included in the FLIC. Disease flares were defined by the modified SELENA--SLEDAI Flare Index. Low disease activity status (LDAS) and remission were also assessed. The cumulative flare rate was estimated by an event per 100 person-years analysis. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to identify risk factors of subsequent disease flares after adjusting clinical confounders. Survival was assessed with the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

448 eligible patients with low-grade disease activity were included in FLIC. During a mean follow-up of 30.4 months, 170 patients flared. The cumulative lupus flare rate was 22.2 events per 100 patient-years. Compared with patients without flare, those with lupus flares were taking more prednisone, had higher disease activity index and with less patients attained LDAS/remission at baseline. They also had higher rates of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPLs) and antiribosomal P antibody. Cox regression analysis confirmed that attainment of either LDAS or remission at baseline were independent protective factors against subsequent disease flare (LDAS but not in remission: HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.38~0.88; remission: HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.30~0.69), while aPL was a risk factor of lupus flares (HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.36~2.78). Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that attaining LDAS or remission and absence of aPL at baseline had the least flare risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In our real-world cohort study, not attaining LDAS or remission at baseline and aPL positivity was associated with higher risk of disease flares in patients with low-grade SLE.