Relationship of multi-biomarker disease activity score and other risk factors with radiographic progression in an observational study of patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Biomarkers for the diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis - a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune disease, symmetrically affecting the small joints. Biomarkers are tools that can be used in the diagnosis and monitoring of RA.

AIM

To systematically explore the role of the biomarkers: C-reactive protein (CRP), rheumatoid factor (RF), anti-cyclic citrullinated protein (Anti-CCP), 14-3-3η protein, and the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score for the diagnosis and treatment of RA.

METHODS

A systematic review of the English literature using four different databases was carried out.

RESULTS

CRP >7.1 mg/L predicted poor conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs) outcome in RA. Anti-CCP, CRP ≥0.3 mg/dL, and RF predicted bone erosion and cartilage destruction. Combination of high 14-3-3η protein with RF and CRP improved the prediction of rapid erosion progression (REP). Anti-CCP was not associated with disease activity but was associated with increased radiographic damage (r = 0.46, p = 0.048). RF was not associated with joint damage but correlated with ultrasound-detected bone erosion. The 14-3-3η protein significantly correlated with inflammation, bone rremodeling, and osteoporosis in RA patients (p < 0.05). In addition, the 14-3-3η protein positively correlated with RA duration (p = 0.003), disease aactivity, and positive RF (p = 0.025) and it distinguished early from established RA. Early MBDA scores correlated with later response in disease activity after 6 and 12 weeks of treatment (p < 0.05). The MBDA score was able to differentiate between small differences in disease activity, predicted remission over 1-year pperiod, and was a strong predictor of radiographic progression of RA.

CONCLUSION

The investigated biomarkers are helpful tools in clinical practice for diagnosis, monitoring of treatment, and predicting prognosis in RA patients. However, further research is still required to investigate novel biomarkers for the pre-treatment selection of potentially responsive patients before starting therapy for a precision medicine in this area.

Biomarkers in Rheumatoid Arthritis

The utilization and identification of biomarkers in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to facilitate timely diagnosis and the optimal management of the disease is an area of active investigation. This review focuses on biomarkers available for routine clinical use, details potential investigational biomarkers, and raises outstanding clinical questions.

Biomarkers of tolerance in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a new era in clinical management?

Modern therapeutic agents and treatment regimens have made sustained remission an attainable target for many patients across a spectrum of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, albeit at the risk of adverse events and the expense of drug prescription and safety monitoring. Clinicians and patients are thus increasingly faced with a novel treatment dilemma: whether and how best to stop immunomodulatory treatment in patients who achieve remission. In this final paper in a Series on therapeutic tolerance induction, we summarise our current knowledge of biomarkers of immune homeostasis in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and their application to the prediction and attainment of sustained drug-free remission. We summarise evidence from prospective studies of immunomodulatory drug cessation across a range of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, and inflammatory bowel disease. We also consider current evidence for clinical, serological, proteomic, metabolomic, cellular, and microbiomic biomarkers of immune homeostasis. Finally, we discuss the steps necessary for clinical translation of these biomarkers, as well as the potential transformative effect of these biomarkers on management of patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases if clinical translation is successfully achieved.

Novel approaches to develop biomarkers predicting treatment responses to TNF-blockers

Introduction: Chronic inflammatory diseases (CIDs) cause significant morbidity and are a considerable burden for the patients in terms of pain, impaired function, and diminished quality of life. Important progress in CID treatment has been obtained with biological therapies, such as tumor-necrosis-factor blockers. However, more than a third of the patients fail to respond to these inhibitors and are exposed to the side effects of treatment, without the benefits. Therefore, there is a strong interest in developing tools to predict response of patients to biologics. Areas covered: The authors searched PubMed for recent studies on biomarkers for disease assessment and prediction of therapeutic responses, focusing on the effect of TNF blockers on immune responses in spondyloarthritis (SpA), and other CID, in particular rheumatoid arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease. Conclusions will be drawn about the possible development of predictive biomarkers for response to treatment. Expert opinion: No validated biomarker is currently available to predict treatment response in CID. New insight could be generated through the development of new bioinformatic modeling approaches to combine multidimensional biomarkers that explain the different genetic, immunological and environmental determinants of therapeutic responses.

Validation of the adjusted multi-biomarker disease activity score as a prognostic test for radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis: a combined analysis of multiple studies

BACKGROUND

The multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) test measures 12 serum protein biomarkers to quantify disease activity in RA patients. A newer version of the MBDA score, adjusted for age, sex, and adiposity, has been validated in two cohorts (OPERA and BRASS) for predicting risk for radiographic progression. We now extend these findings with additional cohorts to further validate the adjusted MBDA score as a predictor of radiographic progression risk and compare its performance with that of other risk factors.

METHODS

Four cohorts were analyzed: the BRASS and Leiden registries and the OPERA and SWEFOT studies (total N = 953). Treatments included conventional DMARDs and anti-TNFs. Associations of radiographic progression (ΔTSS) per year with the adjusted MBDA score, seropositivity, and clinical measures were evaluated using linear and logistic regression. The adjusted MBDA score was (1) validated in Leiden and SWEFOT, (2) compared with other measures in all four cohorts, and (3) used to generate curves for predicting risk of radiographic progression.

RESULTS

Univariable and bivariable analyses validated the adjusted MBDA score and found it to be the strongest, independent predicator of radiographic progression (ΔTSS > 5) compared with seropositivity (rheumatoid factor and/or anti-CCP), baseline TSS, DAS28-CRP, CRP SJC, or CDAI. Neither DAS28-CRP, CDAI, SJC, nor CRP added significant information to the adjusted MBDA score as a predictor, and the frequency of radiographic progression agreed with the adjusted MBDA score when it was discordant with these measures. The rate of progression (ΔTSS > 5) increased from < 2% in the low (1-29) adjusted MBDA category to 16% in the high (45-100) category. A modeled risk curve indicated that risk increased continuously, exceeding 40% for the highest adjusted MBDA scores.

CONCLUSION

The adjusted MBDA score was validated as an RA disease activity measure that is prognostic for radiographic progression. The adjusted MBDA score was a stronger predictor of radiographic progression than conventional risk factors, including seropositivity, and its prognostic ability was not significantly improved by the addition of DAS28-CRP, CRP, SJC, or CDAI.

Composite quantitative knee structure metrics predict the development of accelerated knee osteoarthritis: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

Background

We aimed to determine if composite structural measures of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) progression on magnetic resonance (MR) imaging can predict the radiographic onset of accelerated knee osteoarthritis.

Methods

We used data from a nested case-control study among participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative without radiographic KOA at baseline. Participants were separated into three groups based on radiographic disease progression over 4 years: 1) accelerated (Kellgren-Lawrence grades [KL] 0/1 to 3/4), 2) typical (increase in KL, excluding accelerated osteoarthritis), or 3) no KOA (no change in KL). We assessed tibiofemoral cartilage damage (four regions: medial/lateral tibia/femur), bone marrow lesion (BML) volume (four regions: medial/lateral tibia/femur), and whole knee effusion-synovitis volume on 3 T MR images with semi-automated programs. We calculated two MR-based composite scores. Cumulative damage was the sum of standardized cartilage damage. Disease activity was the sum of standardized volumes of effusion-synovitis and BMLs. We focused on annual images from 2 years before to 2 years after radiographic onset (or a matched time for those without knee osteoarthritis). To determine between group differences in the composite metrics at all time points, we used generalized linear mixed models with group (3 levels) and time (up to 5 levels). For our prognostic analysis, we used multinomial logistic regression models to determine if one-year worsening in each composite metric change associated with future accelerated knee osteoarthritis (odds ratios [OR] based on units of 1 standard deviation of change).

Results

Prior to disease onset, the accelerated KOA group had greater average disease activity compared to the typical and no KOA groups and this persisted up to 2 years after disease onset. During a pre-radiographic disease period, the odds of developing accelerated KOA were greater in people with worsening disease activity [versus typical KOA OR (95% confidence interval [CI]): 1.58 (1.08 to 2.33); versus no KOA: 2.39 (1.55 to 3.71)] or cumulative damage [versus typical KOA: 1.69 (1.14 to 2.51); versus no KOA: 2.11 (1.41 to 3.16)].

Conclusions

MR-based disease activity and cumulative damage metrics may be prognostic markers to help identify people at risk for accelerated onset and progression of knee osteoarthritis.

Correlation of the Multi-Biomarker Disease Activity Score With Rheumatoid Arthritis Disease Activity Measures: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

There are conflicting reports on the validity of the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score for assessing rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity. Our aim was to perform a systematic review of the MBDA and a meta-analysis of the correlation between the MBDA and other RA disease activity measures.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed by searching Medline, Embase, Scopus, Google Scholar, and the Cochrane Library from inception to March 7, 2017. Study details, MBDA performance, and study quality were assessed by independent reviewers. Correlations of the MBDA with composite RA disease activity measures were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 22 studies were identified in the systematic review, of which 8 (n = 3,242 assays) reported correlations of the MBDA with RA disease activity measures. Pooling results from these 8 studies in the meta-analysis, the MBDA demonstrated modest correlations with the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints using the C-reactive protein level (DAS28-CRP; r = 0.41, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.36-0.46) and the Disease Activity Score using the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR; r = 0.48, 95% CI 0.38-0.58), with weaker correlations observed with the Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI; r = 0.35, 95% CI 0.26-0.43), Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI; r = 0.26, 95% CI 0.19-0.33), and Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data 3 (RAPID3; r = 0.23, 95% CI 0.19-0.27). Correlations between change in MBDA and change in disease activity measures ranged from r = 0.53 for the DAS28-ESR to r = 0.26 for the CDAI.

CONCLUSION

The MBDA demonstrates moderate convergent validity with the DAS28-CRP and the DAS28-ESR but weaker correlations with the SDAI, CDAI, and RAPID3. While it appears to complement existing RA disease activity measures, further assessment of the performance characteristics of the MBDA is warranted.

Adjustment of the multi-biomarker disease activity score to account for age, sex and adiposity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Objective

To develop and evaluate an adjusted score for the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) test to account for the effects of age, sex and adiposity in patients with RA.

Methods

Two models were developed to adjust MBDA score for age, sex and adiposity, using either serum leptin concentration or BMI as proxies for adiposity. Two cohorts were studied. A cohort of 325 781 RA patients who had undergone commercial MBDA testing and had data for age, sex and serum leptin concentration was used for both models. A cohort of 1411 patients from five studies/registries with BMI data was used only for the BMI-adjusted MBDA score. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses evaluated the adjusted MBDA scores and conventional clinical measures as predictors of radiographic progression, assessed in terms of modified total Sharp score (ΔmTSS).

Results

Two models were developed, based on findings that MBDA score was higher in females than males and increased with age, leptin concentration and BMI. In pairwise regression analyses, the leptin-adjusted (P = 0.00066) and BMI-adjusted (P = 0.0027) MBDA scores were significant independent predictors of ΔmTSS after adjusting for DAS28-CRP, whereas DAS28-CRP was not, after adjusting for leptin-adjusted (P = 0.74) or BMI-adjusted (P = 0.87) MBDA score. Moreover, the leptin-adjusted MBDA score was a significant predictor of ΔmTSS after adjusting for the BMI-adjusted MBDA score (P = 0.025) or the original MBDA score (0.027), whereas the opposite was not true.

Conclusion

Leptin-adjusted MBDA score significantly adds information to DAS28-CRP and the original MBDA score in predicting radiographic progression. It may offer improved clinical utility for personalized management of RA.

Tobacco-Derived Lipopolysaccharide, Not Microbial Translocation, as a Potential Contributor to the Pathogenesis of Rheumatoid Arthritis

Microbial lipopolysaccharides (LPS) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), possibly driving a systemic inflammatory response that may trigger the development and/or exacerbation of the disease. To explore the existence of this mechanism in African RA patients, we have measured systemic levels of LPS and its surrogate, LPS-binding protein (LBP), as well as those of intestinal fatty acid-binding protein (I-FABP), pulmonary surfactant protein D (SP-D), and cotinine in serum to identify possible origins of LPS, as well as associations of these biomarkers with rheumatoid factor (RF) and anticitrullinated peptide (aCCP) autoantibodies and the DAS 28-3 clinical disease severity score. A cohort of 40 disease-modifying antirheumatic drug-naïve, black South African RA patients rated by compound disease scores and 20 healthy subjects and 10 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as controls were included in this study. Levels of the various biomarkers and autoantibodies were measured using a combination of ELISA and immunofluorimetric and immunoturbidometric procedures. LPS levels were lowest in the RA group compared to the healthy controls (p = 0.026) and COPD patients (p = 0.017), while LBP levels were also significantly lower in RA compared to the healthy individuals (p = 0.036). Levels of I-FABP and SP-D were comparable between all three groups. Categorisation of RA patients according to tobacco usage revealed the following significant positive correlations: LBP with C-reactive protein (p = 0.0137); a trend (p = 0.073) towards an association of LBP with the DAS 28-3 disease severity score; RF-IgG antibodies with both LPS and LBP (p = 0.033 and p = 0.041, respectively); aCCP-IgG antibodies with LPS (p = 0.044); and aCCP-IgG with RF-IgM autoantibodies (p = 0.0016). The findings of this study, several of them novel, imply that tobacco products, as opposed to microbial translocation, represent a potential source of LPS in this study cohort of RA patients, again underscoring the risks posed by tobacco usage for the development and severity of RA.

Predicting risk for radiographic damage in rheumatoid arthritis: comparative analysis of the multi-biomarker disease activity score and conventional measures of disease activity in multiple studies

Objective: To compare the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score with the DAS28-CRP and CRP for predicting risk of radiographic progression in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.Methods: Published studies of the MBDA score and radiographic progression with ≥100 patients per cohort were evaluated. Rates of radiographic progression over 1 year were determined across the low/moderate/high categories for MBDA score (low/moderate/high: <30, 30-44, >44), DAS28-CRP (low/moderate/high: ≤2.67, >2.67-4.09, >4.09) and CRP (low/moderate/high: ≤10, >10-30, >30 mg/L), with positive and negative predictive value (PPV, NPV) and relative risk (RR) determined for high vs. not-high (i.e. low and moderate combined) categories. Patient-level data from studies having all three measures was pooled to: (1) determine a combined RR for radiographic progression in the high vs. not-high categories for each measure; and (2) compare the predictive ability of MBDA score vs. DAS28-CRP by comparing the rates of radiographic progression observed in subgroups created by cross-classifying the high and not-high categories of each measure.Results: Five cohorts were identified for inclusion (total N=929). In each, radiographic progression was more frequent with increasing MBDA scores. Among the three cohorts with requisite data, PPVs were generally similar using categories of MBDA score, DAS28-CRP or CRP but NPVs were greater for MBDA score (93-97%) than DAS28-CRP or CRP (77-87%). RRs for radiographic progression were greater when based on categories of MBDA score than DAS28-CRP or CRP and the combined RR was greater for MBDA score (4.6, p < .0001) than DAS28-CRP (1.7, p = .02) or CRP (1.7, p = .002). For patients cross-classified by MBDA score and DAS28-CRP, high vs. not-high MBDA score significantly predicted radiographic progression independently of DAS28-CRP.Conclusions: High and not-high MBDA scores were associated with increased and low risk, respectively, for radiographic progression over one year. MBDA score was a better predictor of radiographic progression than DAS28-CRP or CRP.

Predictors of biologic-free disease control in patients with rheumatoid arthritis after stopping tumor necrosis factor inhibitor treatment

Background

The aim of this study was to identify predictors of prolonged disease control after discontinuation of tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) treatment in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

Methods

Post-hoc analysis of 439 RA patients (67.3% rheumatoid factor positive) with longstanding RA in remission or with stable low disease activity, randomized to stopping TNFi treatment in the multicenter POET trial. Prolonged acceptable disease control was defined as not restarting TNFi treatment within 12 months after stopping. Baseline demographic and disease-related variables were included in univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis for identifying predictors of relapse.

Results

One year after baseline, 220 patients (50.1%) had not restarted TNFi treatment. Use of an anti-TNF monoclonal antibody (versus a receptor antagonist, OR = 2.41; 95% CI: 1.58–3.67), ≤10 yrs. disease duration (OR = 2.15; 95% CI: 1.42–3.26) and low or moderate multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) scores (OR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.10–3.64) at baseline were independently predictive of successful TNFi discontinuation (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.66; 95% CI: 0.61–0.71). Results were similar when using no physician-reported flare as the criterion. TNFi-free survival was significantly different for patient groups based on the number of predictors present, ranging from 21.4% of patients with no predictor present to 66.7% of patients with all three predictors present.

Conclusion

Patients using an anti-TNF monoclonal antibody, with shorter disease duration and low or moderate baseline MBDA score are most likely to achieve prolonged disease control after TNFi discontinuation.

Trial registration

Netherlands Trial Register NTR3112, 21 October 2011.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s41927-019-0071-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

ACPA-negative RA consists of subgroups: patients with high likelihood of achieving sustained DMARD-free remission can be identified by serological markers at disease presentation

Background

Disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-free remission, the sustained absence of synovitis after DMARD cessation, is increasingly achievable, especially in autoantibody-negative rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, underlying mechanisms are unknown and patient subgroups that achieve this outcome are insufficiently characterized. We evaluated whether serological biomarkers at disease onset, as measured within the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score, are differently expressed in RA patients who achieve sustained DMARD-free remission.

Methods

Two hundred ninety-nine RA patients were evaluated for achievement of sustained DMARD-free remission during a median follow-up of 4.3 years. Twelve biomarkers, as included in the MBDA score, were determined from the serum obtained at disease onset. Patients were categorized as having a low (< 30), moderate (30–44) or high (> 44) score. Analyses were stratified for anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) based under the assumption that ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative RA are different disease entities.

Results

Twenty percent achieved sustained DMARD-free remission. Overall, high MBDA scores were associated with achieving DMARD-free remission (high vs. low HR 3.8, 95% CI 1.2–12.2). Among ACPA-negative RA patients, moderate or high scores associated strongly with DMARD-free remission (moderate vs. low HR 9.4, 95% CI 1.2–72.9; high vs. low HR 9.7, 95% CI 1.3–71.1). This association was independent of age and other clinical factors (high vs. low HR 8.2, 95% CI 1.1–61.8). For ACPA-negative RA patients, the biomarkers C-reactive protein, serum amyloid A and matrix metalloproteinase-3 were individually associated with sustained DMARD-free remission. Among ACPA-positive RA patients, scores were not associated with DMARD-free remission.

Conclusions

ACPA-negative RA patients who achieved sustained DMARD-free remission after treatment withdrawal were characterized by moderate to high MBDA scores at diagnosis. This is the first evidence that ACPA-negative RA can be subdivided in clinically relevant subsets at disease onset using a protein profile.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13075-019-1902-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Assessing prognosis and prediction of treatment response in early rheumatoid arthritis: systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, debilitating disease associated with reduced quality of life and substantial costs. It is unclear which tests and assessment tools allow the best assessment of prognosis in people with early RA and whether or not variables predict the response of patients to different drug treatments.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review evidence on the use of selected tests and assessment tools in patients with early RA (1) in the evaluation of a prognosis (review 1) and (2) as predictive markers of treatment response (review 2).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases (e.g. MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science Conference Proceedings; searched to September 2016), registers, key websites, hand-searching of reference lists of included studies and key systematic reviews and contact with experts.

STUDY SELECTION

Review 1 - primary studies on the development, external validation and impact of clinical prediction models for selected outcomes in adult early RA patients. Review 2 - primary studies on the interaction between selected baseline covariates and treatment (conventional and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs) on salient outcomes in adult early RA patients.

RESULTS

Review 1 - 22 model development studies and one combined model development/external validation study reporting 39 clinical prediction models were included. Five external validation studies evaluating eight clinical prediction models for radiographic joint damage were also included. c-statistics from internal validation ranged from 0.63 to 0.87 for radiographic progression (different definitions, six studies) and 0.78 to 0.82 for the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). Predictive performance in external validations varied considerably. Three models [(1) Active controlled Study of Patients receiving Infliximab for the treatment of Rheumatoid arthritis of Early onset (ASPIRE) C-reactive protein (ASPIRE CRP), (2) ASPIRE erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ASPIRE ESR) and (3) Behandelings Strategie (BeSt)] were externally validated using the same outcome definition in more than one population. Results of the random-effects meta-analysis suggested substantial uncertainty in the expected predictive performance of models in a new sample of patients. Review 2 - 12 studies were identified. Covariates examined included anti-citrullinated protein/peptide anti-body (ACPA) status, smoking status, erosions, rheumatoid factor status, C-reactive protein level, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, swollen joint count (SJC), body mass index and vascularity of synovium on power Doppler ultrasound (PDUS). Outcomes examined included erosions/radiographic progression, disease activity, physical function and Disease Activity Score-28 remission. There was statistical evidence to suggest that ACPA status, SJC and PDUS status at baseline may be treatment effect modifiers, but not necessarily that they are prognostic of response for all treatments. Most of the results were subject to considerable uncertainty and were not statistically significant.

LIMITATIONS

The meta-analysis in review 1 was limited by the availability of only a small number of external validation studies. Studies rarely investigated the interaction between predictors and treatment.

SUGGESTED RESEARCH PRIORITIES

Collaborative research (including the use of individual participant data) is needed to further develop and externally validate the clinical prediction models. The clinical prediction models should be validated with respect to individual treatments. Future assessments of treatment by covariate interactions should follow good statistical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Review 1 - uncertainty remains over the optimal prediction model(s) for use in clinical practice. Review 2 - in general, there was insufficient evidence that the effect of treatment depended on baseline characteristics.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016042402.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Uptake and Clinical Utility of Multibiomarker Disease Activity Testing in the United States

OBJECTIVE

The clinical utility of the multibiomarker disease activity (MBDA) test for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) management in routine care in the United States has not been thoroughly studied.

METHODS

Using 2011-2015 Medicare data, we linked each patient with RA to their MBDA test result. Initiation of a biologic or Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor in the 6 months following MBDA testing was described. Multivariable adjustment evaluated the likelihood of adding or switching biologic/JAK inhibitor, controlling for potential confounders. For patients with high MBDA scores who added a new RA therapy and were subsequently retested, lack of improvement in the MBDA score was evaluated as a predictor of future RA medication failure, defined by the necessity to change RA medications again.

RESULTS

Among 60,596 RA patients with MBDA testing, the proportion adding or switching biologics/JAK inhibitor among those not already taking a biologic/JAK inhibitor was 9.0% (low MBDA), 11.8% (moderate MBDA), and 19.7% (high MBDA, p < 0.0001). Similarly, among those already taking biologics/JAK inhibitor, the proportions were 5.2%, 8.3%, and 13.5% (p < 0.0001). After multivariable adjustment, referent to those with low disease MBDA scores, the likelihood of switching was 1.51-fold greater (95% CI 1.35-1.69) for patients with moderate MBDA scores, and 2.62 (2.26-3.05) for patients with high MBDA scores. Among those with high MBDA scores who subsequently added a biologic/JAK inhibitor and were retested, lack of improvement in the MBDA score category was associated with likelihood of future RA treatment failure (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.27-2.03).

CONCLUSION

The MBDA score was associated with both biologic and JAK inhibitor medication addition/switching and subsequent treatment outcomes.

Predicting disease progression and poor outcomes in patients with moderately active rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Access to biologic DMARDs for RA is often restricted to those with severe disease. This systematic review aimed to identify prognostic factors in patients with moderate disease activity who may be at risk of disease progression and poor clinical outcomes.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched (final search 22 September 2017), and data from patients with moderate disease [28-joint DAS (DAS28) >3.2-≤5.1] were included. Studies were evaluated according to the measure(s) of progression/poor outcome used: radiographic, disease activity or other indicators.

RESULTS

The searches identified 274 publications, of which 30 were selected for data extraction. Fourteen studies were prioritized, because they specifically analysed patients with moderate RA. Nine studies reported radiographic progression outcomes for 3241 patients, three studies reported disease activity progression for 1516 patients, and two studies reported other relevant outcomes for 2094 patients. Prognostic factors with consistent evidence for progression/poor outcome prediction were as follows: DAS28 ≥ 4.2, the presence of anti-CCP antibodies, and power Doppler ultrasound score ≥1. Some predictors were specific to either disease activity or radiographic progression.

CONCLUSION

Several criteria used in standard clinical practice were identified that have the potential to inform the selection of patients with moderate RA who are at greater risk of a poor outcome. A combination of two or more of these factors might enhance their predictive potential. Further work is required to derive clinical decision rules incorporating these factors.

The multi-biomarker disease activity score tracks response to rituximab treatment in rheumatoid arthritis patients: a post hoc analysis of three cohort studies

BACKGROUND

A multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score has been validated as an objective measure of disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and shown to track response to treatment with several disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs). The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of the MBDA score to track response to treatment with rituximab.

METHODS

Data were used from 57 RA patients from three cohorts treated with rituximab 1000 mg and methylprednisolone 100 mg at days 1 and 15. The MBDA score was assessed in serum samples obtained at baseline and 6 months. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients were calculated for baseline values, 6-month values, and change from baseline to 6 months (∆), between MBDA score and the following measures: disease activity score assessing 28 joints (DAS28) using erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), ESR, (hs)CRP, swollen and tender joint counts assessing 28 joints (SJC28, TJC28), patient visual analogue scale for general health (VAS-GH), health assessment questionnaire (HAQ), and radiographic progression over 12 months using Sharp/van der Heijde score (SHS), as well as six bone turnover markers. Additionally, multivariable linear regression analyses were performed using these measures as dependent variable and the MBDA score as independent variable, with adjustment for relevant confounders. The association between ∆MBDA score and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response at 6 months was assessed with adjustment for relevant confounders.

RESULTS

At baseline, the median MBDA score and DAS28-ESR were 54.0 (IQR 44.3-70.0) and 6.3 (IQR 5.4-7.1), respectively. MBDA scores correlated significantly with DAS28-ESR, DAS28-hsCRP, ESR and (hs)CRP at baseline and 6 months. ∆MBDA score correlated significantly with changes in these measures. ∆MBDA score was associated with EULAR good or moderate response (adjusted OR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.81-0.98, p = 0.02). Neither baseline MBDA score nor ΔMBDA score correlated statistically significantly with ∆SHS (n = 11) or change in bone turnover markers (n = 23), although ∆SHS ≥ 5 was observed in 5 (56%) of nine patients with high MBDA scores.

CONCLUSIONS

We have shown, for the first time, that the MBDA score tracked disease activity in RA patients treated with rituximab and that change in MBDA score reflected the degree of treatment response.

Determination of the minimally important difference (MID) in multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) test scores: impact of diurnal and daily biomarker variation patterns on MBDA scores

The Multi-Biomarker Disease Activity (MBDA) score is a validated rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity measure based on 12 serum biomarkers. Here, we evaluate short-term biological variability of MBDA scores to determine the magnitude of change that might be considered clinically meaningful. Twenty-eight adult seropositive RA patients with clinically stable disease and no changes in RA medications for 4 weeks prior to study were enrolled. Nine serum samples were obtained over four consecutive days (non-fasting). MBDA score variation was assessed day-to-day (daily) and within 24 h (diurnal). The standard deviation (SD) of MBDA scores was calculated by a linear mixed model including random effects for patient, day, and time of day. The minimally important difference (MID) was calculated as [Formula: see text]. A subgroup analysis was performed for patients with active RA (moderate or high MBDA score). The SD of MBDA score change in the full cohort was 4.7 in a combined daily-diurnal variation analysis, which corresponds with an MID of 11. The SD of MBDA score change in the subset of patients with active RA (moderate/high MBDA scores) was 3.6. This corresponds with an MID of 8 units in patients with active RA for whom clinicians are most likely to need guidance with respect to therapeutic decisions. Changes in MBDA score ≥ 8 represent a change in RA disease activity that clinicians can use as a benchmark for therapeutic drug efficacy and can be incorporated into a treat-to-target strategy.

Predictive value of a multi-biomarker disease activity score for clinical remission and radiographic progression in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis: a post-hoc study of the OPERA trial

OBJECTIVES

Measurement of serum biomarkers at disease onset may improve prediction of disease course in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We evaluated the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score and early changes in MBDA score for prediction of 28-joint Disease Activity Score based on C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) remission and radiographic progression in the double-blinded OPERA trial.

METHOD

Treatment-naïve RA patients (N = 180) with moderate or high DAS28 were randomized to methotrexate (MTX) + adalimumab (n = 89) or MTX + placebo (n = 91) in combination with glucocorticoid injection into swollen joints. X-rays of hands and feet were evaluated at months 0 and 12 (n = 164) by the total Sharp van der Heijde score (TSS). The smallest detectable change (1.8 TSS units) defined radiographic progression (∆TSS ≥ 2). Clinical remission (DAS28-CRP < 2.6) was assessed at baseline and 6 months. MBDA score was determined at 0 and 3 months and tested in a multivariable logistic regression model for predicting DAS28 remission at 6 months and radiographic progression at 1 year.

RESULTS

Baseline MBDA score was independently associated with radiographic progression at 1 year [odds ratio (OR) = 1.03/unit, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.06], and changes in MBDA score from baseline to 3 months with clinical remission at 6 months [OR = 0.98/unit, 95% CI 0.96-1.00). In anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody (anti-CCP)-positive patients, 35 of 89 with high MBDA score (> 44) showed radiographic progression (PPV = 39%), compared with 0 of 15 patients (NPV = 100%) with low/moderate MBDA score (≤ 44) (p = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

Early changes in MBDA score were associated with clinical remission based on DAS28-CRP at 6 months. In anti-CCP-positive patients, a non-high baseline MBDA score (≤ 44) had a clinical value by predicting very low risk of radiographic progression at 12 months.

The potential impact of monitoring disease activity biomarkers on rheumatoid arthritis outcomes and costs

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) management requires monitoring of disease activity to determine course of treatment. Global assessments are used in clinical practice to determine RA disease activity. Monitoring disease activity via biomarkers may also help providers optimize biologic and nonbiologic drug use while decreasing overall drug spend by delaying use of expensive biologic therapies. By testing multiple biologic domains at the same time, a multibiomarker disease activity test may have utility in RA patient management, through improved intra- and inter-rater reliability. This report provides a comprehensive review of studies of objective measures, single biomarkers and multibiomarker disease activity tests as disease activity measures to decrease uncertainty in treatment decisions, and of biomarkers’ potential impact on economic and clinical outcomes of treatment choices.

Multi-biomarker disease activity score as a predictor of disease relapse in patients with rheumatoid arthritis stopping TNF inhibitor treatment

Objective

Successfully stopping or reducing treatment for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in low disease activity (LDA) may improve cost-effectiveness of care. We evaluated the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score as a predictor of disease relapse after discontinuation of TNF inhibitor (TNFi) treatment.

Methods

439 RA patients who were randomized to stop TNFi treatment in the POET study were analyzed post-hoc. Three indicators of disease relapse were assessed over 12 months: 1) restarting TNFi treatment, 2) escalation of any DMARD therapy and 3) physician-reported flare. MBDA score was assessed at baseline. Associations between MBDA score and disease relapse were examined using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression.

Results

At baseline, 50.1%, 35.3% and 14.6% of patients had low (<30), moderate (30−44) or high (>44) MBDA scores. Within 12 months, 49.9% of patients had restarted TNFi medication, 59.0% had escalation of any DMARD and 57.2% had ≥1 physician-reported flare. MBDA score was associated with each indicator of relapse. At least one indicator of relapse was observed in 59.5%, 68.4% and 81.3% of patients with low, moderate or high MBDA scores, respectively (P = 0.004). Adjusted for baseline DAS28-ESR, disease duration, BMI and erosions, high MBDA scores were associated with increased risk for restarting TNFi treatment (OR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.00–3.40), DMARD escalation (OR = 1.99, 95% CI 1.01–3.94) and physician-reported flare (OR = 2.00, 95% 1.06–3.77).

Conclusion

For RA patients with stable LDA who stopped TNFi, a high baseline MBDA score was independently predictive of disease relapse within 12 months. The MBDA score may be useful for identifying patients at risk of relapse after TNFi discontinuation.

Identification of new biomarkers to promote personalised treatment of patients with inflammatory rheumatic disease: protocol for an open cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The introduction of biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) has improved the treatment of inflammatory rheumatic diseases dramatically. However, bDMARD treatment failure occurs in 30%-40% of patients due to lack of effect or adverse events, and the tools to predict treatment outcomes in individual patients are currently limited. The objective of the present study is to identify diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarkers, which can be used to (1) diagnose inflammatory rheumatic diseases early in the disease course with high sensitivity and specificity, (2) improve prognostication or (3) predict and monitor treatment effectiveness and tolerability for the individual patient.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The present study is an observational and translational open cohort study with prospective collection of clinical data and biological materials (primarily blood) in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases treated in routine care. Patients contribute with one cross-sectional blood sample and/or are enrolled for longitudinal follow-up on initiation of a new DMARD (blood sampling after 0, 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 months of treatment). Other biological materials will be collected when accessible and relevant. Demographics, disease characteristics, comorbidities and lifestyle factors are registered at inclusion; DMARD treatment and outcomes are collected repeatedly during follow-up. Currently (July 2017), >5000 samples from approximately 3000 patients have been collected. Data will be analysed using appropriate statistical analyses.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The protocol is approved by the Danish Ethics Committee and the Danish Data Protection Agency. Participants give written and oral informed consent. Biomarkers will be evaluated and published according to the Reporting Recommendations for Tumour Marker (REMARK) prognostic studies, Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) and the Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy (STARD) guidelines. Results will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and presented at international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03214263.

Poor prognostic factors guiding treatment decisions in rheumatoid arthritis patients: a review of data from randomized clinical trials and cohort studies

Prognostic factors are used for treatment decisions in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). High disease activity, the early presence of erosions, and autoantibody positivity are the most frequently used poor prognostic factors but other features, such as functional disability, extraarticular disease, or multibiomarkers, are also assessed. Prognostic factors are incorporated in current treatment recommendations for the management of RA and are used as inclusion criteria in randomized controlled trials. They are defined heterogeneously and the relevance of a single or combined presence of poor prognostic factors remains unclear. This review summarizes the current definitions of poor prognostic factors and their use in clinical research. Perspectives on future research are also outlined.

Investigation of a multi-biomarker disease activity score in rheumatoid arthritis by comparison with magnetic resonance imaging, computed tomography, ultrasonography, and radiography parameters of inflammation and damage

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score by comparison with imaging findings in an investigator-initiated rheumatoid arthritis (RA) trial (HURRAH trial, NCT00696059).

METHOD

Fifty-two patients with established RA initiated adalimumab treatment and had magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), ultrasonography (US), computed tomography (CT), and radiography performed at weeks 0, 26, and 52. Serum samples were analysed using MBDA score assays and associations between clinical measures, MBDA score, and imaging findings were investigated.

RESULTS

The MBDA score correlated significantly with MRI synovitis (rho = 0.65, p < 0.001), MRI bone marrow oedema (rho = 0.36, p = 0.044), and US power Doppler (PD) score at week 26 (rho = 0.35, p = 0.039) but not at week 0 or week 52. In the 15 patients who had achieved a Disease Activity Score based on C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) < 2.6 at week 26, MRI and/or US detected subclinical inflammation and 13 (87%) had a moderate/high MBDA score. For the cohort with available data, none of the four patients in MBDA remission (score ≤ 25) at week 26 had progression of imaging damage from baseline to week 52 whereas progression was observed in three out of nine (33%) and seven out of 21 (33%) patients with moderate (30-44) and high (> 44) MBDA scores, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort, the MBDA score correlated poorly with MRI/US inflammation. However, the MBDA score and MRI/US were generally concordant in showing signs of inflammation in most patients in clinical remission during anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapy. MBDA scores were elevated in all patients with structural damage progression.