The Grass was Greener: Repeated Evolution of Specialized Morphologies and Habitat Shifts in Ghost Spiders Following Grassland Expansion in South America

A Phylogenetic Model of Established and Enabled Biome Shifts

Where each species actually lives is distinct from where it could potentially survive and persist. This suggests that it may be important to distinguish established from enabled biome affinities when considering how ancestral species moved and evolved among major habitat types. We introduce a new phylogenetic method, called RFBS, to model how anagenetic and cladogenetic events cause established and enabled biome affinities (or, more generally, other discrete realized versus fundamental niche states) to shift over evolutionary timescale. We provide practical guidelines for how to assign established and enabled biome affinity states to extant taxa, using the flowering plant clade Viburnum as a case study. Through a battery of simulation experiments, we show that RFBS performs well, even when we have realistically imperfect knowledge of enabled biome affinities for most analyzed species. We also show that RFBS reliably discerns established from enabled affinities, with similar accuracy to standard competing models that ignore the existence of enabled biome affinities. Lastly, we apply RFBS to Viburnum to infer ancestral biomes throughout the tree and to highlight instances where repeated shifts between established affinities for warm and cold temperate forest biomes were enabled by a stable and slowly-evolving enabled affinity for both temperate biomes.

Incorporating Topological and Age Uncertainty into Event-Based Biogeography of Sand Spiders Supports Paleo-Islands in Galapagos and Ancient Connections among Neotropical Dry Forests

Event-based biogeographic methods, such as dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis, have become increasingly popular for attempting to reconstruct the biogeographic history of organisms. Such methods employ distributional data of sampled species and a dated phylogenetic tree to estimate ancestral distribution ranges. Because the input tree is often a single consensus tree, uncertainty in topology and age estimates are rarely accounted for, even when they may affect the outcome of biogeographic estimates. Even when such uncertainties are taken into account for estimates of ancestral ranges, they are usually ignored when researchers compare competing biogeographic hypotheses. We explore the effect of incorporating this uncertainty in a biogeographic analysis of the 21 species of sand spiders (Sicariidae: Sicarius) from Neotropical xeric biomes, based on a total-evidence phylogeny including a complete sampling of the genus. Using a custom R script, we account for uncertainty in ages and topology by estimating ancestral ranges over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian analysis, and for uncertainty in biogeographic estimates by using stochastic maps. This approach allows for counting biogeographic events such as dispersal among areas, counting lineages through time per area, and testing biogeographic hypotheses, while not overestimating the confidence in a single topology. Including uncertainty in ages indicates that Sicarius dispersed to the Galapagos Islands when the archipelago was formed by paleo-islands that are now submerged; model comparison strongly favors a scenario where dispersal took place before the current islands emerged. We also investigated past connections among currently disjunct Neotropical dry forests; failing to account for topological uncertainty underestimates possible connections among the Caatinga and Andean dry forests in favor of connections among Caatinga and Caribbean + Mesoamerican dry forests. Additionally, we find that biogeographic models including a founder-event speciation parameter (“+J”) are more prone to suffer from the overconfidence effects of estimating ancestral ranges using a single topology. This effect is alleviated by incorporating topological and age uncertainty while estimating stochastic maps, increasing the similarity in the inference of biogeographic events between models with or without a founder-event speciation parameter. We argue that incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty in biogeographic hypothesis-testing is valuable and should be a commonplace approach in the presence of rogue taxa or wide confidence intervals in age estimates, and especially when using models including founder-event speciation.