Defining how aging Pseudotsuga and Abies compensate for multiple stresses through multi-criteria assessment of a functional-structural model

The right tree for the job? perceptions of species suitability for the provision of ecosystem services

Stakeholders in plantation forestry are increasingly aware of the importance of the ecosystem services and non-market values associated with forests. In New Zealand, there is significant interest in establishing species other than Pinus radiata D. Don (the dominant plantation species) in the belief that alternative species are better suited to deliver these services. Significant risk is associated with this position as there is little objective data to support these views. To identify which species were likely to be planted to deliver ecosystem services, a survey was distributed to examine stakeholder perceptions. Stakeholders were asked which of 15 tree attributes contributed to the provision of five ecosystem services (amenity value, bioenergy production, carbon capture, the diversity of native habitat, and erosion control/water quality) and to identify which of 22 candidate tree species possessed those attributes. These data were combined to identify the species perceived most suitable for the delivery of each ecosystem service. Sequoia sempervirens (D.Don) Endl. closely matched the stakeholder derived ideotypes associated with all five ecosystem services. Comparisons to data from growth, physiological and ecological studies demonstrated that many of the opinions held by stakeholders were inaccurate, leading to erroneous assumptions regarding the suitability of most candidate species. Stakeholder perceptions substantially influence tree species selection, and plantations established on the basis of inaccurate opinions are unlikely to deliver the desired outcomes. Attitudinal surveys associated with engagement campaigns are essential to improve stakeholder knowledge, advancing the development of fit-for-purpose forest management that provides the required ecosystem services.

Assessment of uncertainty in functional-structural plant models

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Constructing functional-structural plant models (FSPMs) is a valuable method for examining how physiology and morphology interact in determining plant processes. However, such models always have uncertainty concerned with whether model components have been selected and represented effectively, with the number of model outputs simulated and with the quality of data used in assessment. We provide a procedure for defining uncertainty of an FSPM and how this uncertainty can be reduced.

METHODS

An important characteristic of FSPMs is that typically they calculate many variables. These can be variables that the model is designed to predict and also variables that give indications of how the model functions. Together these variables are used as criteria in a method of multi-criteria assessment. Expected ranges are defined and an evolutionary computation algorithm searches for model parameters that achieve criteria within these ranges. Typically, different combinations of model parameter values provide solutions achieving different combinations of variables within their specified ranges. We show how these solutions define a Pareto Frontier that can inform about the functioning of the model.

KEY RESULTS

The method of multi-criteria assessment is applied to development of BRANCHPRO, an FSPM for foliage reiteration on old-growth branches of Pseudotsuga menziesii. A geometric model utilizing probabilities for bud growth is developed into a causal explanation for the pattern of reiteration found on these branches and how this pattern may contribute to the longevity of this species.

CONCLUSIONS

FSPMs should be assessed by their ability to simulate multiple criteria simultaneously. When different combinations of parameter values achieve different groups of assessment criteria effectively a Pareto Frontier can be calculated and used to define the sources of model uncertainty.