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Micheleto JPC, Melo KA, Veloso FCS, Kassar SB, Oliveira MJC. Risk factors for mortality in patients with chikungunya: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Trop Med Int Health 2025; 30:235-245. [PMID: 39894663 DOI: 10.1111/tmi.14088] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2025]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Chikungunya fever is a debilitating arthritic disease that can lead to atypical severe complications and sometimes be fatal. The risk factors for fatal outcomes of chikungunya fever have not been thoroughly studied. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to identify mortality risk factors in patients with chikungunya. These findings will aid clinicians in targeting high-risk groups with severe chikungunya for timely interventions, ultimately improving patient outcomes. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to identify mortality risk factors in patients with chikungunya. METHODS We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis by searching the MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, BVS, BDTD and OpenGrey databases to identify eligible observational studies on patients with chikungunya. These studies analysed mortality risk factors, providing adjusted risk measures along with their corresponding confidence intervals (CIs). We estimated the pooled weighted mean difference and 95% CIs using a random-effects model, and the methodological quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. RESULTS Our search yielded a total of 334 records. After removing duplicates, we screened 275 records, reviewed 31 full articles and included seven studies in the systematic review and four in the meta-analysis, with a total of 220,215 patients and 908 fatal cases. Diabetes Mellitus (OR = 2.86, 95% CI 1.75-4.69), hypertension (OR = 3.10, 95% CI 2.02-4.77), age ≥ 60 years (OR = 19.49, 95% CI 1.98-191.88), chronic kidney disease (OR = 5.81, 95% CI 1.30-25.99), male sex (OR = 2.07, 95% CI 1.71-2.51) and vomiting (OR = 2.18, 95% CI 1.75-2.73) are significantly and positively associated with mortality in chikungunya. CONCLUSION Elderly men with chronic diseases have a higher risk of death from chikungunya; therefore, they deserve more careful evaluation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Karin Araujo Melo
- Graduate Program in Medical Sciences, Medical School, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brazil
| | | | - Samir Buainain Kassar
- Graduate Program in Medical Sciences, Medical School, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brazil
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Brito C, Falcão MB, de Albuquerque MDFPM, Cerqueira-Silva T, Teixeira MG, Franca RFDO. Chikungunya: From Hypothesis to Evidence of Increased Severe Disease and Fatalities. Viruses 2025; 17:62. [PMID: 39861851 PMCID: PMC11768798 DOI: 10.3390/v17010062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2024] [Revised: 12/17/2024] [Accepted: 12/27/2024] [Indexed: 01/27/2025] Open
Abstract
Chikungunya virus infection often manifests as an acute, self-limiting febrile illness, with arthralgia and musculoskeletal symptoms being the most commonly reported. Arthralgia can persist for months or even years, and approximately 50% of cases progress to chronic conditions. However, recent outbreaks have revealed a rising number of severe cases and fatalities. This review examines evidence from the past decade that suggests a higher incidence of severe chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections and increased mortality rates, challenging official reports and guidelines from many countries. The literature review includes case reports, series, and studies with comparison groups to assess whether CHIKV-related mortality is underreported. Evaluating excess mortality involves analyzing consistent findings across different regions, biological plausibility, and systemic manifestations that contribute to severe outcomes. These findings aim to expand disease classifications in international guidelines and raise awareness among healthcare professionals to better identify severe CHIKV cases and related deaths. Studies were identified through PubMed using the search terms "chikungunya", "death", "severe", "pathogenesis", and "pathophysiology".
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Brito
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical, Centro de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife 50740-465, Brazil;
- Departamento de Imunologia, Instituto Autoimune de Pesquisa, Recife 52011-040, Brazil
| | | | | | - Thiago Cerqueira-Silva
- Laboratório de Medicina e Saúde Pública de Precisão, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Salvador 40296-710, Brazil;
| | - Maria Glória Teixeira
- Instituto de Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador 40026-010, Brazil;
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Loevinsohn G, Paulino CT, Spring J, Hughes HR, Restrepo AC, Mayfield H, de St Aubin M, Laven J, Panella A, Duke W, Etienne MC, Abdalla G, Garnier S, Iihoshi N, Lopez B, de la Cruz L, Henríquez B, Baldwin M, Peña F, Kucharski AJ, Vasquez M, Gutiérrez EZ, Brault AC, Skewes-Ramm R, Lau CL, Nilles EJ. Chikungunya Outbreak Risks after the 2014 Outbreak, Dominican Republic. Emerg Infect Dis 2024; 30:2679-2683. [PMID: 39592447 PMCID: PMC11616656 DOI: 10.3201/eid3012.240824] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2024] Open
Abstract
The 2014 chikungunya outbreak in the Dominican Republic resulted in intense local transmission, with high postoutbreak seroprevalence. The resulting population immunity will likely minimize risk for another large outbreak through 2035, but changes in population behavior or environmental conditions or emergence of different virus strains could lead to increased transmission.
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da Costa VG, Saivish MV, Sinhorini PF, Nogueira ML, Rahal P. A meta-analysis of Chikungunya virus in neurological disorders. Infect Dis Now 2024; 54:104938. [PMID: 38885813 DOI: 10.1016/j.idnow.2024.104938] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2023] [Revised: 03/17/2024] [Accepted: 06/13/2024] [Indexed: 06/20/2024]
Abstract
Chikungunya disease typically presents with the fever-arthralgia-rash symptom triad. However, an increase in the number of atypical clinical manifestations, particularly neurological disorders, has occurred. The current evidence regarding the pooled prevalence of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV)-associated neurological cases (CANCs) suspected of having an arboviral aetiology is not well-understood. Therefore, this meta-analysis included 19 studies (n = 7319 patients) and aimed to determine the pooled rate of exposure to CANC. The pooled positivity rate of CANC was 12 % (95 % CI: 6-19), and Brazil was overrepresented (11/19). These estimations varied between 3 and 14 % based on the diagnostic method (real-time PCR vs. ELISA-IgM) and biological samples (cerebrospinal fluid or blood specimens) used for detection of CHIKV. Regarding the frequency of CHIKV in neurological clinical subgroups, the rates were higher among patients with myelitis (27 %), acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (27 %), Guillain-Barré syndrome (15 %), encephalitis (12 %), and meningoencephalitis (7 %). Our analysis highlights the significant burden of CANC. However, the data must be interpreted with caution due to the heterogeneity of the results, which may be related to the location of the studies covering endemic periods and/or outbreaks of CHIKV. Current surveillance resources should also focus on better characterizing the epidemiology of CHIKV infection in neurological disorders. Additionally, future studies should investigate the interactions between CHIKV and neurological diseases with the aim of gaining deeper insight into the mechanisms underlying the cause-and-effect relationship between these two phenomena.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vivaldo G da Costa
- Laboratório de Estudos Genômicos, Departamento de Biologia, Instituto de Biociências Letras e Ciências Exatas, Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), São José do Rio Preto 15054-000, SP, Brazil.
| | - Marielena V Saivish
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas, Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto, São José do Rio Preto 15090‑000, SP, Brazil; Laboratório Nacional de Biociências, Centro Nacional de Pesquisa em Energia e Materiais (CNPEM), Campinas 13083‑100, SP, Brazil
| | - Paola F Sinhorini
- Laboratório de Estudos Genômicos, Departamento de Biologia, Instituto de Biociências Letras e Ciências Exatas, Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), São José do Rio Preto 15054-000, SP, Brazil
| | - Maurício L Nogueira
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia, Departamento de Doenças Dermatológicas, Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto, São José do Rio Preto 15090‑000, SP, Brazil; Department of Pathology, The University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX 77555-0609, USA
| | - Paula Rahal
- Laboratório de Estudos Genômicos, Departamento de Biologia, Instituto de Biociências Letras e Ciências Exatas, Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), São José do Rio Preto 15054-000, SP, Brazil.
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Ribas Freitas AR, Pinheiro Chagas AA, Siqueira AM, Pamplona de Góes Cavalcanti L. How much of the current serious arbovirus epidemic in Brazil is dengue and how much is chikungunya? LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. AMERICAS 2024; 34:100753. [PMID: 38711542 PMCID: PMC11070701 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2024.100753] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2024] [Revised: 04/15/2024] [Accepted: 04/16/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - André Machado Siqueira
- Universidade Federal do Ceará and Centro Universitário Christus, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
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Grabenstein JD, Tomar AS. Global geotemporal distribution of chikungunya disease, 2011-2022. Travel Med Infect Dis 2023; 54:102603. [PMID: 37307983 DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102603] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2022] [Revised: 01/06/2023] [Accepted: 06/03/2023] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne alphavirus, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Humans serve as the primary reservoir. Chikungunya infections typically appear with an abrupt onset of fever, rash, and severe joint pain. Some 40% of cases develop chronic rheumatologic complications that can persist months to years. OBJECTIVES To improve precision of risk characterization by analyzing cases of chikungunya by year and by country and depicting this geotemporal distribution in map form. METHOD Chikungunya case counts by year were compiled from national or regional health authorities from 2011 to 2022. These data were augmented by published reviews plus the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED). Country-level distribution was categorized into four groups based on recency and magnitude. Data for India were mapped on a per-state basis. RESULTS The global map depicts distribution of chikungunya disease from 2011 through 2022. Most cases are reported in tropical and subtropical areas, but notable exceptions include the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. Countries of high recency and frequency include India, Brazil, Sudan, and Thailand. Countries with high frequency, but few cases reported in 2019-22 include many Latin American and Caribbean countries. Subnational foci are discussed in general and mapped for India. The range of Aedes mosquitoes is broader than the geography where chikungunya infection is typically diagnosed. CONCLUSIONS These maps help identify geographical regions where residents or travelers are at greatest risk of chikungunya. Once vaccines are licensed to help prevent chikungunya, maps like these can help guide future vaccine decision-making.
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Bartholomeeusen K, Daniel M, LaBeaud DA, Gasque P, Peeling RW, Stephenson KE, Ng LFP, Ariën KK. Chikungunya fever. Nat Rev Dis Primers 2023; 9:17. [PMID: 37024497 PMCID: PMC11126297 DOI: 10.1038/s41572-023-00429-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 33.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/10/2023] [Indexed: 04/08/2023]
Abstract
Chikungunya virus is widespread throughout the tropics, where it causes recurrent outbreaks of chikungunya fever. In recent years, outbreaks have afflicted populations in East and Central Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. The virus is transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Chikungunya fever is characterized by severe arthralgia and myalgia that can persist for years and have considerable detrimental effects on health, quality of life and economic productivity. The effects of climate change as well as increased globalization of commerce and travel have led to growth of the habitat of Aedes mosquitoes. As a result, increasing numbers of people will be at risk of chikungunya fever in the coming years. In the absence of specific antiviral treatments and with vaccines still in development, surveillance and vector control are essential to suppress re-emergence and epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Koen Bartholomeeusen
- Virology Unit, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Matthieu Daniel
- Unité de Recherche en Pharmaco-Immunologie (UR-EPI), Université et CHU de La Réunion, Saint-Denis, France
- Service de Médecine d'Urgences-SAMU-SMUR, CHU de La Réunion, Saint-Denis, France
| | - Desiree A LaBeaud
- Department of Pediatrics, Division of Infectious Disease, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Philippe Gasque
- Unité de Recherche en Pharmaco-Immunologie (UR-EPI), Université et CHU de La Réunion, Saint-Denis, France
- Laboratoire d'Immunologie Clinique et Expérimentale Océan Indien LICE-OI, Université de La Réunion, Saint-Denis, France
| | - Rosanna W Peeling
- Clinical Research Department, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kathryn E Stephenson
- Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
- Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Lisa F P Ng
- A*STAR Infectious Diseases Labs, Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore, Singapore
- National Institute of Health Research, Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Kevin K Ariën
- Virology Unit, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
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Archila ED, López LS, Castellanos JE, Calvo EP. Molecular and biological characterization of an Asian-American isolate of Chikungunya virus. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0266450. [PMID: 35385544 PMCID: PMC8985947 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0266450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2021] [Accepted: 03/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Chikungunya virus is an arthropod-transmitted virus that causes chikungunya fever, a disease characterized by severe muscle and joint pain. In 2013, the virus was introduced to the Americas and caused approximately 2.7 million cases of infection during the subsequent two years. The lack of knowledge regarding the biological behavior of the viral strains circulating during the outbreak motivated the characterization of an isolate from the Colombian outbreak, starting from analysis of the complete genome to the biological behavior in vitro. The full genome was retrieved using next-generation sequencing. The infective and replicative capacities were evaluated in HEK293T, Huh-7, and MRC-5 cell lines. The infection rates were determined by flow cytometry, and the cytopathic effect was assessed by a resazurin fluorescent metabolic assay. The viral yield was quantified using the virus plaque formation assay, while the viral proteins and genomic RNA kinetics were subsequently evaluated by western-blot and RT-qPCR. The COL7624 isolate clustered with other American and Caribbean sequences in the Asian American lineage. The T669A substitution in E2 protein distinguished it from other Colombian sequences reported in 2014. After 48 h post infection (hpi), the three cell lines analyzed reached infection percentages exceeding 65%, generating a high load of infectious viral progeny. The infection kinetics indicated that the replication peak of this CHIKV isolate is around 24 hpi, although gRNA is detectable in the culture supernatant from 4 hpi onwards. The infection caused the overexpression of interferon and pro-inflammatory cytokines, such as IL-1β, TNF-α, and IL-8. The COL7624 CHIKV isolate exhibited a high infective and replicative capacity as well as activation of cellular immune responses, similar to isolates belonging to the other genotypes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edwin D. Archila
- Laboratorio de Virología, Universidad El Bosque, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
| | - Lady S. López
- Laboratorio de Virología, Universidad El Bosque, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
| | | | - Eliana P. Calvo
- Laboratorio de Virología, Universidad El Bosque, Bogotá D.C., Colombia
- * E-mail:
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Constant LEC, Rajsfus BF, Carneiro PH, Sisnande T, Mohana-Borges R, Allonso D. Overview on Chikungunya Virus Infection: From Epidemiology to State-of-the-Art Experimental Models. Front Microbiol 2021; 12:744164. [PMID: 34675908 PMCID: PMC8524093 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2021.744164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2021] [Accepted: 09/07/2021] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is currently one of the most relevant arboviruses to public health. It is a member of the Togaviridae family and alphavirus genus and causes an arthritogenic disease known as chikungunya fever (CHIKF). It is characterized by a multifaceted disease, which is distinguished from other arbovirus infections by the intense and debilitating arthralgia that can last for months or years in some individuals. Despite the great social and economic burden caused by CHIKV infection, there is no vaccine or specific antiviral drugs currently available. Recent outbreaks have shown a change in the severity profile of the disease in which atypical and severe manifestation lead to hundreds of deaths, reinforcing the necessity to understand the replication and pathogenesis processes. CHIKF is a complex disease resultant from the infection of a plethora of cell types. Although there are several in vivo models for studying CHIKV infection, none of them reproduces integrally the disease signature observed in humans, which is a challenge for vaccine and drug development. Therefore, understanding the potentials and limitations of the state-of-the-art experimental models is imperative to advance in the field. In this context, the present review outlines the present knowledge on CHIKV epidemiology, replication, pathogenesis, and immunity and also brings a critical perspective on the current in vitro and in vivo state-of-the-art experimental models of CHIKF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Larissa E. C. Constant
- Departamento de Biotecnologia Farmacêutica, Faculdade de Farmácia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Laboratório de Biotecnologia e Bioengenharia Estrutural, Instituto de Biofísica Carlos Chagas Filho, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Bia F. Rajsfus
- Departamento de Biotecnologia Farmacêutica, Faculdade de Farmácia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Laboratório de Biotecnologia e Bioengenharia Estrutural, Instituto de Biofísica Carlos Chagas Filho, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Pedro H. Carneiro
- Laboratório de Biotecnologia e Bioengenharia Estrutural, Instituto de Biofísica Carlos Chagas Filho, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Tháyna Sisnande
- Laboratório de Biotecnologia e Bioengenharia Estrutural, Instituto de Biofísica Carlos Chagas Filho, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Ronaldo Mohana-Borges
- Laboratório de Biotecnologia e Bioengenharia Estrutural, Instituto de Biofísica Carlos Chagas Filho, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Diego Allonso
- Departamento de Biotecnologia Farmacêutica, Faculdade de Farmácia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Abstract
El virus de chikunguña (CHIKV) es un Alfavirus perteneciente al grupo denominado del Viejo Mundo; estos son virus artritogénicos que causan una enfermedad febril caracterizada por artralgias y mialgias. Aunque la muerte por CHIKV es poco frecuente, la enfermedad puede llegar a ser incapacitante y generar un amplio espectro de manifestaciones atípicas, como complicaciones cardiovasculares, respiratorias, oculares, renales y dérmicas, entre otras. Cuando el dolor articular persiste por tres o más meses, da lugar a la forma crónica de la enfermedad denominada reumatismo inflamatorio crónico poschikunguña, el cual es la principal secuela de la enfermedad. Se considera que este virus no es neurotrópico, sin embargo, puede afectar el sistema nervioso central y generar secuelas graves y permanentes, principalmente, en niños y ancianos. En África, Asia y Europa se habían reportado anteriormente brotes epidémicos por CHIKV, pero solo hasta finales del 2013 se documentó la introducción del virus a las Américas; desde entonces, el virus se ha propagado a 45 países o territorios del continente y el número de casos acumulados ascendió a cerca de dos millones en dos años. Esta revisión describe de manera general la biología molecular del virus, sus manifestaciones clínicas, su patogénesis y las principales complicaciones posteriores a la infección. Además, reúne la información de la epidemia en Colombia y el continente americano publicada entre el 2014 y el 2020.
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Anggraeni YM, Garjito TA, Prihatin MT, Handayani SW, Negari KS, Yanti AO, Hidajat MC, Prastowo D, Satoto TBT, Manguin S, Gavotte L, Frutos R. Fast Expansion of the Asian-Pacific Genotype of the Chikungunya Virus in Indonesia. Front Cell Infect Microbiol 2021; 11:631508. [PMID: 33968797 PMCID: PMC8098665 DOI: 10.3389/fcimb.2021.631508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2020] [Accepted: 03/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Chikungunya is repeatedly affecting Indonesia through successive outbreaks. The Asian genotype has been present in Asia since the late 1950s while the ECSA-IOL (East/Central/South Africa - Indian Ocean Lineage) genotype invaded Asia in 2005. In order to determine the extension of the circulation of the chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Indonesia, mosquitoes were collected in 28 different sites from 12 Indonesian provinces in 2016-2017. The E1 subunit of the CHIKV envelope gene was sequenced while mosquitoes were genotyped using the mitochondrial cox1 (cytochrome C oxidase subunit 1) gene to determine whether a specific population was involved in the vectoring of CHIKV. A total of 37 CHIKV samples were found in 28 Aedes aegypti, 8 Aedes albopictus and 1 Aedes butleri out of 15,362 samples collected and tested. These viruses, like all Indonesian CHIKV since 2000, belonged to a genotype we propose to call the Asian-Pacific genotype. It also comprises the Yap isolates and viruses having emerged in Polynesia, the Caribbean and South America. They differ from the CHIKV of the Asian genotype found earlier in Indonesia indicating a replacement. These results raise the question of the mechanisms behind this fast and massive replacement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yusnita Mirna Anggraeni
- Institute for Vector and Reservoir Control Research and Development, National Institute of Health Research and Development, the Ministry of Health of Indonesia, Salatiga, Indonesia
| | - Triwibowo Ambar Garjito
- Institute for Vector and Reservoir Control Research and Development, National Institute of Health Research and Development, the Ministry of Health of Indonesia, Salatiga, Indonesia
- HSM, University of Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Mega Tyas Prihatin
- Institute for Vector and Reservoir Control Research and Development, National Institute of Health Research and Development, the Ministry of Health of Indonesia, Salatiga, Indonesia
| | - Sri Wahyuni Handayani
- Institute for Vector and Reservoir Control Research and Development, National Institute of Health Research and Development, the Ministry of Health of Indonesia, Salatiga, Indonesia
| | - Kusumaningtyas Sekar Negari
- Institute for Vector and Reservoir Control Research and Development, National Institute of Health Research and Development, the Ministry of Health of Indonesia, Salatiga, Indonesia
| | - Ary Oktsari Yanti
- Institute for Vector and Reservoir Control Research and Development, National Institute of Health Research and Development, the Ministry of Health of Indonesia, Salatiga, Indonesia
| | - Muhammad Choirul Hidajat
- Institute for Vector and Reservoir Control Research and Development, National Institute of Health Research and Development, the Ministry of Health of Indonesia, Salatiga, Indonesia
| | - Dhian Prastowo
- Institute for Vector and Reservoir Control Research and Development, National Institute of Health Research and Development, the Ministry of Health of Indonesia, Salatiga, Indonesia
| | - Tri Baskoro Tunggul Satoto
- Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | - Sylvie Manguin
- HSM, University of Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France
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Petrone ME, Earnest R, Lourenço J, Kraemer MUG, Paulino-Ramirez R, Grubaugh ND, Tapia L. Asynchronicity of endemic and emerging mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in the Dominican Republic. Nat Commun 2021; 12:151. [PMID: 33420058 PMCID: PMC7794562 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20391-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2020] [Accepted: 11/27/2020] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Mosquito-borne viruses threaten the Caribbean due to the region's tropical climate and seasonal reception of international tourists. Outbreaks of chikungunya and Zika have demonstrated the rapidity with which these viruses can spread. Concurrently, dengue fever cases have climbed over the past decade. Sustainable disease control measures are urgently needed to quell virus transmission and prevent future outbreaks. Here, to improve upon current control methods, we analyze temporal and spatial patterns of chikungunya, Zika, and dengue outbreaks reported in the Dominican Republic between 2012 and 2018. The viruses that cause these outbreaks are transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which are sensitive to seasonal climatological variability. We evaluate whether climate and the spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue outbreaks could explain patterns of emerging disease outbreaks. We find that emerging disease outbreaks were robust to the climatological and spatio-temporal constraints defining seasonal dengue outbreak dynamics, indicating that constant surveillance is required to prevent future health crises.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mary E Petrone
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, 06510, USA.
| | - Rebecca Earnest
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, 06510, USA
| | - José Lourenço
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Robert Paulino-Ramirez
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical & Salud Global, Universidad Iberoamericana, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
| | - Nathan D Grubaugh
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, 06510, USA
| | - Leandro Tapia
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical & Salud Global, Universidad Iberoamericana, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
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Silva Junior GBD, Pinto JR, Mota RMS, Pires Neto RDJ, Daher EDF. Risk factors for death among patients with Chikungunya virus infection during the outbreak in northeast Brazil, 2016-2017. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2020; 113:221-226. [PMID: 30551206 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/try127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2018] [Revised: 11/10/2018] [Accepted: 11/16/2018] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection is a current public health problem. The aim of this study was to investigate risk factors for death among patients with CHIKV infection during a large epidemic in northeast Brazil. METHODS This is a cross-sectional study with all registered cases of CHIKV in Ceara, Brazil, during 2016-2017. Data from notification reports were collected, and we have compared non-survivors and survivors. RESULTS A total of 182 731 cases were reported, with a mean age of 38±19 years, and the majority was female (62%). There were 383 deaths. Non-survivors were elderly, with a predominance of males, and with a lower educational level. Conditions that were significantly more frequent in the non-survivor group were systemic arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease (p<0.0001). Independent risk factors for death were advanced age (OR 7.35, p<0.0001), male gender (OR 2.05, p<0.0001), leukopenia (OR 3.18, p<0.0001) and vomiting (OR 2.19, p<0.0001), and comorbidities like hypertension (OR 3.74, p<0.0001), diabetes (OR 3.29, p<0.0001) and chronic kidney disease (OR 3.14, p<0.0001). CONCLUSION Advanced age and low educational level were associated with higher risk of mortality in CHIKV. Leukopenia and vomiting were signs of severity, as well as the presence of comorbidities, especially hypertension, diabetes and kidney disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Geraldo Bezerra da Silva Junior
- Post-Graduation Program in Collective Health, Health Sciences Center, University of Fortaleza-UNIFOR. Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
| | - José Reginaldo Pinto
- Post-Graduation Program in Collective Health, Health Sciences Center, University of Fortaleza-UNIFOR. Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
| | - Rosa Maria Salani Mota
- Department of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Sciences Center, Federal University of Ceará-UFC. Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
| | - Roberto da Justa Pires Neto
- Post-Graduation Program in Public Health, Department of Community Health, Federal University of Ceará-UFC. Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
| | - Elizabeth De Francesco Daher
- Post-Graduation Program in Medical Sciences, Department of Internal Medicine, Federal University of Ceará-UFC. Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
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Magnani C, Azzolina D, Gallo E, Ferrante D, Gregori D. How Large Was the Mortality Increase Directly and Indirectly Caused by the COVID-19 Epidemic? An Analysis on All-Causes Mortality Data in Italy. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:E3452. [PMID: 32429172 PMCID: PMC7277828 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17103452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2020] [Revised: 05/11/2020] [Accepted: 05/12/2020] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Objective: Overall mortality is a relevant indicator of the population burden during an epidemic. It informs on both undiagnosed cases and on the effects of health system disruption. Methods: We aimed at evaluating the extent of the total death excess during the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. Data from 4433 municipalities providing mortality reports until April 15th, 2020 were included for a total of 34.5 million residents from all Italian regions. Data were analyzed by region, sex and age, and compared to expected from 2015-2019. Results: In both genders, overall mortality was stable until February 2020 and abruptly increased from March 1st onwards. Within the municipalities studied, 77,339 deaths were observed in the period between March 1st to April 15th, 2020, in contrast to the 50,822.6 expected. The rate ratio was 1.11 before age 60 and 1.55 afterwards. Both sexes were affected. The excess was greater in the regions most affected by COVID-19 but always exceeded the deaths attributed to COVID-19. The extrapolation to the total Italian population suggests an excess of 45,033 deaths in the study period, while the number of COVID-19 deaths was 21,046. Conclusion: Our paper shows a large death excess during the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy; greater than the number attributed to it. Possible causes included both the undetected cases and the disruption of the Health Service organization. Timely monitoring of overall mortality based on unbiased nationwide data is an essential tool for epidemic control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Corrado Magnani
- Unit of Medical Statistics and Cancer Epidemiology, Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, Novara, and CPO-Piedmont, I-28100 Novara, Italy
- Covid19ita Study Group, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, I-35131 Padova, Italy
| | - Danila Azzolina
- Unit of Medical Statistics and Cancer Epidemiology, Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, Novara, and CPO-Piedmont, I-28100 Novara, Italy
- Covid19ita Study Group, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, I-35131 Padova, Italy
| | - Elisa Gallo
- Covid19ita Study Group, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, I-35131 Padova, Italy
- Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, I-35131 Padova, Italy
| | - Daniela Ferrante
- Unit of Medical Statistics and Cancer Epidemiology, Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, Novara, and CPO-Piedmont, I-28100 Novara, Italy
- Covid19ita Study Group, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, I-35131 Padova, Italy
| | - Dario Gregori
- Covid19ita Study Group, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, I-35131 Padova, Italy
- Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, I-35131 Padova, Italy
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Cerbino-Neto J, Mesquita EC, Amancio RT, Brasil PEAAD. Events preceding death among chikungunya virus infected patients: a systematic review. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 2020; 53:e04312019. [PMID: 32401863 PMCID: PMC7269536 DOI: 10.1590/0037-8682-0431-2019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2019] [Accepted: 03/24/2020] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Since its re-emergence in the late 1990s, there have been reports of Chikungunya fever (CHIK-F) presenting with severe or atypical findings. There is little knowledge regarding the clinical events leading to the death of patients with CHIK-F. This study aimed to systematically review the literature regarding CHIK-F and identify clinical features preceding death. We searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Lilacs, and IsiWeb for case-reports, case-series, or cohorts of CHIK-F reporting at least one death, up to December 2019. Fifty-seven reports were analyzed, including 2140 deaths. Data about specific clinical events that precede death are scarce. The central tendency of time between disease onset and death ranged from 2 days to 150 days. The most common clinical findings among decedents were fever (22.0%), arthralgia (15.7%), myalgia (10.7%), and headache (8.2%). Excluding pediatric populations, the reported central tendency of age among the decedents was 53 or older, with a non-weighted median of 67, ranging up to 80 years old. Authors mentioned organic dysfunction in 91.2% reports. Among all the 2140 decedents, the most common dysfunctions were cardiovascular (7.2%), respiratory (6.4%), neurological (5.4%), renal (4.2%), liver (3.0%), and hematological (1.3%) dysfunction. Exacerbation of previous diabetes (5.6%) or hypertension (6.9%) was mentioned as conditions preceding death. Currently, older age, primary neurological, cardiovascular, or respiratory dysfunction and a previous diagnosis of diabetes or hypertension are the main clinical events preceding death.
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Affiliation(s)
- José Cerbino-Neto
- Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil
| | | | - Rodrigo Teixeira Amancio
- Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil
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16
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Frutuoso LCV, Freitas ARR, Cavalcanti LPDG, Duarte EC. Estimated mortality rate and leading causes of death among individuals with chikungunya in 2016 and 2017 in Brazil. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 2020; 53:e20190580. [PMID: 32294696 PMCID: PMC7182291 DOI: 10.1590/0037-8682-0580-2019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2019] [Accepted: 02/05/2020] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION In 2014, the first cases of autochthonous chikungunya (CHIK) were recorded in Brazil. Lethality associated with this disease is underestimated. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the causes of death among individuals with CHIK in Brazil. METHODS A descriptive observational study was conducted on individuals with CHIK who died within 6 months from symptom onset. Data pairing between the Information System for Notifiable Diseases and the Mortality Information System was performed. Deaths were classified according to case confirmation criterion, mention of CHIK in the death certificates (DCs), and disease phase. The lethality rate per 1,000 cases was corrected for underreporting and was estimated according to region, sex, age, years of education, race/color, and cause groups. RESULTS We identified 3,135 deaths (mention of CHIK in the DCs, 764 [24.4%]). In 17.6% of these cases, CHIK was the underlying cause. Most deaths occurred in the acute (38.1%) and post-acute (29.6%) phases. The corrected LR (5.7; x1,000) was 6.8 times higher than that obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (0.8). The highest corrected LRs were estimated for among individuals living in the Northeast region (6.2), men (7.4), those with low years of education and those aged <1 year (8.6), 65-79 years (20.7), and ≥80 years (75.4). CONCLUSIONS The LR of CHIK estimates based on information system linkage help to reveal the relevance of this disease as the direct cause or as a cause associated with serious or fatal events, provide timely interventions, and increase the knowledge about this disease.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - André Ricardo Ribas Freitas
- Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Campinas, Departamento de Vigilância em Saúde, Programa Municipal de Controle de Arboviroses, Campinas, SP, Brasil
- Faculdade de Medicina São Leopoldo Mandic, Campinas, SP, Brasil
| | | | - Elisabeth Carmen Duarte
- Universidade de Brasília, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical, Brasília, DF, Brasil
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Cavalcanti LPDG, Arthur Brasil Gadelha Farias L, Kalline de Almeida Barreto F, Siqueira AM, Ribeiro GS, Ricardo Ribas Freitas A, Weaver SC, Kitron U, Brito CAA. Chikungunya Case Classification after the Experience with Dengue Classification: How Much Time Will We Lose? Am J Trop Med Hyg 2020; 102:257-259. [PMID: 31769391 PMCID: PMC7008335 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.19-0608] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2019] [Accepted: 10/15/2019] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
In 2013, cases of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection were first detected in the Caribbean. Chikungunya virus rapidly spread through Central and South America, causing explosive outbreaks in naive populations. Since its emergence in 2004, the number of case and series reports describing severe, atypical manifestations seen in chikungunya patients has increased substantially, calling into question whether clinicians and health services are failing to diagnose these atypical cases because of not only insufficient knowledge but also limitations in the case classification. Although this classification based on the duration of the musculoskeletal (acute, subacute, and chronic forms) complaints helped guide therapeutic approaches directed to these manifestations, patients presenting severe or complicated forms, which are less frequent but produce most of the fatal outcomes, were not properly addressed. In Brazil and the Caribbean, a clear temporal and spatial association between excess overall mortality and the occurrence of chikungunya epidemics has been shown, supporting the hypothesis that many of these excess deaths were a consequence of CHIKV infections. Thus, accumulated experience has highlighted that the current chikungunya case classification does not encompass the actual needs presented by certain cases with atypical features nor does it contribute to early detection and management of potentially severe cases. With continued CHIKV circulation in three continents and recent reemergence in Asia and Europe, we need a classification that is prospective and informed both by initial clinical presentation and by progression of signs and symptoms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luciano Pamplona de Góes Cavalcanti
- Department of Community Health, School of Medicine, Federal University of Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil
- Faculty of Medicine, Unichristus University Center, Fortaleza, Brazil
| | | | | | - André Machado Siqueira
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Guilherme Sousa Ribeiro
- Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Brazil
- School of Medicine, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
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Lima Neto AS, Sousa GS, Nascimento OJ, Castro MC. Chikungunya-attributable deaths: A neglected outcome of a neglected disease. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007575. [PMID: 31513593 PMCID: PMC6742212 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007575] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Antonio S. Lima Neto
- Health Surveillance Department, Fortaleza Municipal Health Secretariat (SMS-Fortaleza), Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
- Health Sciences Center, University of Fortaleza (UNIFOR), Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
- Takemi Program, Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Geziel S. Sousa
- Health Surveillance Department, Fortaleza Municipal Health Secretariat (SMS-Fortaleza), Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
| | - Osmar J. Nascimento
- Health Surveillance Department, Fortaleza Municipal Health Secretariat (SMS-Fortaleza), Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil
| | - Marcia C. Castro
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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19
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Rheumatic manifestations of chikungunya: emerging concepts and interventions. Nat Rev Rheumatol 2019; 15:597-611. [DOI: 10.1038/s41584-019-0276-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/11/2019] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
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Abstract
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an alphavirus that is primarily transmitted by Aedes species mosquitoes. Though reports of an illness consistent with chikungunya date back over 200 years, CHIKV only gained worldwide attention during a massive pandemic that began in East Africa in 2004. Chikungunya, the clinical illness caused by CHIKV, is characterized by a rapid onset of high fever and debilitating joint pain, though in practice, etiologic confirmation of CHIKV requires the availability and use of specific laboratory diagnostics. Similar to infections caused by other arboviruses, CHIKV infections are most commonly detected with a combination of molecular and serological methods, though cell culture and antigen detection are reported. This review provides an overview of available CHIKV diagnostics and highlights aspects of basic virology and epidemiology that pertain to viral detection. Although the number of chikungunya cases has decreased since 2014, CHIKV has become endemic in countries across the tropics and will continue to cause sporadic outbreaks in naive individuals. Consistent access to accurate diagnostics is needed to detect individual cases and initiate timely responses to new outbreaks.
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Harapan H, Michie A, Mudatsir M, Nusa R, Yohan B, Wagner AL, Sasmono RT, Imrie A. Chikungunya virus infection in Indonesia: a systematic review and evolutionary analysis. BMC Infect Dis 2019; 19:243. [PMID: 30866835 PMCID: PMC6417237 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-019-3857-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2018] [Accepted: 02/27/2019] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Despite the high number of chikungunya cases in Indonesia in recent years, comprehensive epidemiological data are lacking. The systematic review was undertaken to provide data on incidence, the seroprevalence of anti-Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) IgM and IgG antibodies, mortality, the genotypes of circulating CHIKV and travel-related cases of chikungunya in the country. In addition, a phylogenetic and evolutionary analysis of Indonesian CHIKV was conducted. Methods A systematic review was conducted to identify eligible studies from EMBASE, MEDLINE, PubMed and Web of Science as of October 16th 2017. Studies describing the incidence, seroprevalence of IgM and IgG, mortality, genotypes and travel-associated chikungunya were systematically reviewed. The maximum likelihood phylogenetic and evolutionary rate was estimated using Randomized Axelerated Maximum Likelihood (RAxML), and the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method identified the Time to Most Recent Common Ancestors (TMRCA) of Indonesian CHIKV. The systematic review was registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42017078205). Results Chikungunya incidence ranged between 0.16-36.2 cases per 100,000 person-year. Overall, the median seroprevalence of anti-CHIKV IgM antibodies in both outbreak and non-outbreak scenarios was 13.3% (17.7 and 7.3% for outbreak and non-outbreak events, respectively). The median seroprevalence of IgG antibodies in both outbreak and non-outbreak settings was 18.5% (range 0.0–73.1%). There were 130 Indonesian CHIKV sequences available, of which 120 (92.3%) were of the Asian genotype and 10 (7.7%) belonged to the East/Central/South African (ECSA) genotype. The ECSA genotype was first isolated in Indonesia in 2008 and was continually sampled until 2011. All ECSA viruses sampled in Indonesia appear to be closely related to viruses that caused massive outbreaks in Southeast Asia countries during the same period. Massive nationwide chikungunya outbreaks in Indonesia were reported during 2009–2010 with a total of 137,655 cases. Our spatio-temporal, phylogenetic and evolutionary data suggest that these outbreaks were likely associated with the introduction of the ECSA genotype of CHIKV to Indonesia. Conclusions Although no deaths have been recorded, the seroprevalence of anti-CHIKV IgM and IgG in the Indonesian population have been relatively high in recent years following re-emergence in early 2001. There is sufficient evidence to suggest that the introduction of ECSA into Indonesia was likely associated with massive chikungunya outbreaks during 2009–2010. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3857-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Harapan Harapan
- Medical Research Unit, School of Medicine, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia. .,School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, 6009, Australia.
| | - Alice Michie
- School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, 6009, Australia
| | - Mudatsir Mudatsir
- Medical Research Unit, School of Medicine, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia. .,Department of Microbiology, School of Medicine, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Jl. T. Tanoeh Abe, Darussalam, Banda Aceh, 23111, Indonesia.
| | - Roy Nusa
- Vector Borne Disease Control, Research and Development Council, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | | | | | | | - Allison Imrie
- School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, 6009, Australia. .,Pathwest Laboratory Medicine Western Australia, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia.
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Freitas ARR, Gérardin P, Kassar L, Donalisio MR. Excess deaths associated with the 2014 chikungunya epidemic in Jamaica. Pathog Glob Health 2019; 113:27-31. [PMID: 30714498 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2019.1574111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Although traditionally chikungunya virus is considered non-fatal, recent studies suggest that there may be in fact underreporting of deaths in some situations. A major chikungunya epidemic hit Jamaica in 2014 but no chikungunya-associated deaths were reported. We assessed the excess of all-cause deaths during this epidemic. Excess deaths were estimated by difference between observed and expected mortality based on the average age-specific mortality rate of 2012-2013, using the 99% confidence interval. There was an excess of 2,499 deaths during the epidemic (91.9/100,000 population), and a strong positive correlation between the monthly incidence of chikungunya and the excess of deaths (Rho = 0.939, p < 0.005). No significant concomitant epidemiological or climatic phenomenon occurred. Chikungunya is a major contributor to morbidity during epidemics and may be an unrecognized cause of death. Thus, it is urgent to review clinical protocols and improve the investigations of specific-cause deaths during chikungunya epidemics. Excess deaths could be a strategic tool for epidemiological surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- André Ricardo Ribas Freitas
- a Faculdade de Medicina São Leopoldo Mandic , Instituto de Pesquisa São Leopoldo Mandic , Campinas , Brasil.,b Departamento de Vigilância em Saúde , Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Campinas , Campinas , Brasil
| | - Patrick Gérardin
- c Inserm Cic 1410 , CHU Réunion , Saint Pierre , France.,d UM 134 PIMIT Processus infectieux en Milieu Insulaire Tropical , Université de La Réunion, CNRS 919, INSERM U 1187, IRD 249), CYROI , Sainte Clotilde , France
| | - Luiza Kassar
- a Faculdade de Medicina São Leopoldo Mandic , Instituto de Pesquisa São Leopoldo Mandic , Campinas , Brasil
| | - Maria Rita Donalisio
- e Faculdade de Ciências Médicas , Universidade Estadual de Campinas , Campinas , Brasil
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