Integrating animal movements with phylogeography to model the spread of PRRSV in the USA

Spatiotemporal Distribution of PRRSV-1 Clades in Hungary with a Focus on the Era of Disease Eradication

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is the cause of the most severe economic losses in the pig industry worldwide. PRRSV is extremely diverse in Europe, which poses a significant challenge to disease control within a country or any region. With the combination of phylogenetic reconstruction and network analysis, we aimed to uncover the major routes of the dispersal of PRRSV clades within Hungary. In brief, by analyzing >2600 ORF5 sequences, we identified at least 12 clades (including 6 clades within lineage 1 and 3 clades within lineage 3) common in parts of Western Europe (including Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands) and identified 2 novel clades (designated X1 and X2). Of interest, some genetic clades unique to other central European countries, such as the Czech Republic and Poland, were not identified. The pattern of PRRSV clade distribution is consistent with the route of the pig trade among countries, showing that most of the identified clades were introduced from Western Europe when fatteners were transported to Hungary. As a result of rigorous implementation of the national eradication program, the swine population was declared officially free from PRRSV. This map of viral diversity and clade distribution will serve as valuable baseline information for the maintenance of PRRSV-free status in the post-eradication era.

Unveiling invisible farm-to-farm PRRSV-2 transmission links and routes through transmission tree and network analysis

The United States (U.S.) swine industry has struggled to control porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) for decades, yet the causative virus, PRRSV-2, continues to circulate and rapidly diverges into new variants. In the swine industry, the farm is typically the epidemiological unit for monitoring, prevention, and control; breaking transmission among farms is a critical step in containing disease spread. Despite this, our understanding of farm transmission still is inadequate, precluding the development of tailored control strategies. Therefore, our objective was to infer farm-to-farm transmission links, estimate farm-level transmissibility as defined by reproduction numbers (R), and identify associated risk factors for transmission using PRRSV-2 open reading frame 5 (ORF5) gene sequences, animal movement records, and other data from farms in a swine-dense region of the U.S. from 2014 to 2017. Timed phylogenetic and transmission tree analyses were performed on three sets of sequences (n = 206) from 144 farms that represented the three largest genetic variants of the virus in the study area. The length of inferred pig-to-pig infection chains that corresponded to pairs of farms connected via direct animal movement was used as a threshold value for identifying other feasible transmission links between farms; these links were then transformed into farm-to-farm transmission networks and calculated farm-level R-values. The median farm-level R was one (IQR = 1-2), whereas the R value of 28% of farms was more than one. Exponential random graph models were then used to evaluate the influence of farm attributes and/or farm relationships on the occurrence of farm-to-farm transmission links. These models showed that, even though most transmission events cannot be directly explained by animal movement, movement was strongly associated with transmission. This study demonstrates how integrative techniques may improve disease traceability in a data-rich era by providing a clearer picture of regional disease transmission.

Phylogeography as a Proxy for Population Connectivity for Spatial Modeling of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Vietnam

Bayesian space-time regression models are helpful tools to describe and predict the distribution of infectious disease outbreaks and to delineate high-risk areas for disease control. In these models, structured and unstructured spatial and temporal effects account for various forms of non-independence amongst case counts across spatial units. Structured spatial effects capture correlations in case counts amongst neighboring provinces arising from shared risk factors or population connectivity. For highly mobile populations, spatial adjacency is an imperfect measure of connectivity due to long-distance movement, but we often lack data on host movements. Phylogeographic models inferring routes of viral dissemination across a region could serve as a proxy for patterns of population connectivity. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the effects of population connectivity in space-time regressions of case counts were better captured by spatial adjacency or by inferences from phylogeographic analyses. To compare these two approaches, we used foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) outbreak data from across Vietnam as an example. We identified that accounting for virus movement through phylogeographic analysis serves as a better proxy for population connectivity than spatial adjacency in spatial-temporal risk models. This approach may contribute to design surveillance activities in countries lacking movement data.

A discrete-time survival model for porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus

Since the arrival of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in the United States in 2013, elimination and control programmes have had partial success. The dynamics of its spread are hard to quantify, though previous work has shown that local transmission and the transfer of pigs within production systems are most associated with the spread of PEDV. Our work relies on the history of PEDV infections in a region of the southeastern United States. This infection data is complemented by farm-level features and extensive industry data on the movement of both pigs and vehicles. We implement a discrete-time survival model and evaluate different approaches to modelling the local-transmission and network effects. We find strong evidence in that the local-transmission and pig-movement effects are associated with the spread of PEDV, even while controlling for seasonality, farm-level features and the possible spread of disease by vehicles. Our fully Bayesian model permits full uncertainty quantification of these effects. Our farm-level out-of-sample predictions have a receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) of 0.779 and a precision-recall AUC of 0.097. The quantification of these effects in a comprehensive model allows stakeholders to make more informed decisions about disease prevention efforts.

Analysis of Recombinant Characteristics Based on 949 PRRSV-2 Genomic Sequences Obtained from 1991 to 2021 Shows That Viral Multiplication Ability Contributes to Dominant Recombination

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is one of the most economically important diseases affecting the pig-raising industry. The PRRS virus (PRRSV) has high genetic diversity, partly owing to viral recombination. Some individual recombinant type 2 PRRSV (PRRSV-2) strains have been detected; however, the sequence composition characteristics of recombination hot spots and potential driving forces for recombinant PRRSV-2 are still unreported. Therefore, all available genomic sequences of PRRSV-2 (n = 949, including 29 genomes sequenced in this study) from 11 countries from 1991 to 2021 were collected and analyzed. The results revealed that the dominant major recombinant parent has been converted from lineage 3 (L3) to L1 since 2012. The recombination hot spots were located at nucleotides (nt) 7900 to 8200 (in NSP9, encoding viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase) and nt 12500 to nt 13300 (in ORF2-ORF4, mean ORF2 to ORF4); no AU-rich characteristics were found in the recombination hot spots. Based on infectious clones of L1 and L8 PRRSV-2, recombinant PRRSVs were generated by switching complete or partial NSP9 (harboring the recombination hot spot). The results showed that recombinant PRRSVs based on the L1 backbone, but not the L8 backbone, acquired a higher replication capacity in pig primary alveolar macrophages. These findings will help to understand the reason behind the dominance of L1-based recombination in PRRSV-2 strains and provide new clues for an in-depth study of the recombination mechanism of PRRSV-2. IMPORTANCE Recombination is an important driver of the genetic shifts that are tightly linked to the evolution of RNA viruses. Viral recombination contributes substantially to the emergence of new variants, alterations in virulence, and pathogenesis. PRRSV is genetically diverse, partly because of extensive recombination. In this study, we analyzed interlineage recombination based on available genomic sequences of PRRSV-2 from 1991 to 2021. The study revealed the temporal and geographical distribution of recombinant PRRSVs and the recombination hot spot's location and showed that artificially constructed recombinant PRRSVs (harboring a high-frequency region) had more viral genomic copies than their parental virus, indicating that dominant recombination was shaped by a tendency to benefit viral replication. This finding will enrich our understanding of PRRSV recombination and provide new clues for an in-depth study of the recombination mechanism.

Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of multi-strain RNA viruses

Potential interactions among co-circulating viral strains in host populations are often overlooked in the study of virus transmission. However, these interactions probably shape transmission dynamics by influencing host immune responses or altering the relative fitness among co-circulating strains. In this Review, we describe multi-strain dynamics from ecological and evolutionary perspectives, outline scales in which multi-strain dynamics occur and summarize important immunological, phylogenetic and mathematical modelling approaches used to quantify interactions among strains. We also discuss how host-pathogen interactions influence the co-circulation of pathogens. Finally, we highlight outstanding questions and knowledge gaps in the current theory and study of ecological and evolutionary dynamics of multi-strain viruses.

Phylodynamic and phylogeographic reconstruction of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) in Europe: Patterns and determinants

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is among the most devastating diseases affecting the pig industry. Despite vaccines having been available for decades, the remarkable genetic variability of this virus, leading to poor cross-protection, has limited their efficacy, and other measures must be adopted to effectively control the viral circulation. Some recent studies have investigated the factors involved in viral spreading and persistence, at least at the local level. However, despite the topic's relevance, no statistically grounded evidence is currently available evaluating the variables more involved in porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) epidemiological success at a broader scale, such as the European scale. In the present study, an extensive phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis was performed on more than 1000 ORF5 sequences to investigate the history, dynamics and spreading patterns of PRRSV within European borders. Moreover, several potential predictors, representative of swine population features and trade, human population, economy and geographic characteristics, were evaluated through a specifically designed generalized linear model (GLM) to assess their weight on viral migration rate between countries over time. Although pig stock density, mean PRRSV strain genetic diversity, investments in agriculture (including a likely role of vaccination) and farmer education were involved to a certain extent, the major determinant was proven to be by far the live pig trade. Providing a robust depiction of PRRSV European molecular epidemiology patterns and determinants, the present study could contribute to a more rational allocation of limited resources based on an effective prioritization of control measures.

Modelling and assessing additional transmission routes for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus: Vehicle movements and feed ingredients

Accounting for multiple modes of livestock disease dissemination in epidemiological models remains a challenge. We developed and calibrated a mathematical model for transmission of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), tailored to fit nine modes of between-farm transmission pathways including: farm-to-farm proximity (local transmission), contact network of batches of pigs transferred between farms (pig movements), re-break probabilities for farms with previous PRRSV outbreaks, with the addition of four different contact networks of transportation vehicles (vehicles to transport pigs to farms, pigs to markets, feed and crew) and the amount of animal by-products within feed ingredients (e.g., animal fat or meat and bone meal). The model was calibrated on weekly PRRSV outbreaks data. We assessed the role of each transmission pathway considering the dynamics of specific types of production (i.e., sow, nursery). Although our results estimated that the networks formed by transportation vehicles were more densely connected than the network of pigs transported between farms, pig movements and farm proximity were the main PRRSV transmission routes regardless of farm types. Among the four vehicle networks, vehicles transporting pigs to farms explained a large proportion of infections, sow = 20.9%; nursery = 15%; and finisher = 20.6%. The animal by-products showed a limited association with PRRSV outbreaks through descriptive analysis, and our model results showed that the contribution of animal fat contributed only 2.5% and meat and bone meal only .03% of the infected sow farms. Our work demonstrated the contribution of multiple routes of PRRSV dissemination, which has not been deeply explored before. It also provides strong evidence to support the need for cautious, measured PRRSV control strategies for transportation vehicles and further research for feed by-products modelling. Finally, this study provides valuable information and opportunities for the swine industry to focus effort on the most relevant modes of PRRSV between-farm transmission.

Lineage 1 Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus Attenuated Live Vaccine Provides Broad Cross-Protection against Homologous and Heterologous NADC30-Like Virus Challenge in Piglets

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is an important pathogen that endangers the swine industry worldwide. Recently, lineage 1 PRRSVs, especially NADC30-like PRRSVs, have become the major endemic strains in many pig-breeding countries. Since 2016, NADC30-like PRRSV has become the predominant strain in China. Unfortunately, current commercial vaccines cannot provide sufficient protection against this strain. Here, an attenuated lineage 1 PRRSV strain, named SD-R, was obtained by passaging an NADC30-like PRRSV strain SD in Marc-145 cells for 125 passages. Four-week-old PRRSV-free piglets were vaccinated intramuscularly with 105.0TCID50 SD-R and then challenged intramuscularly (2 mL) and intranasally (2 mL) with homologous NADC30-like PRRSV SD (1 × 105.0TCID50/mL) and heterologous NADC30-like PRRSV HLJWK108-1711 (1 × 105.0TCID50/mL). The results showed that antibodies against specific PRRSVs in 5 of 5 immunized piglets were positive after a 14-day post-vaccination and did not develop fever or clinical diseases after NADC30-like PRRSV challenges. Additionally, compared with challenge control piglets, vaccinated piglets gained significantly more weight and showed much milder pathological lesions. Furthermore, the viral replication levels of the immunized group were significantly lower than those of the challenge control group. These results demonstrate that lineage 1 PRRSV SD-R is a good candidate for an efficacious vaccine, providing complete clinical protection for piglets against NADC30-like PRRSVs.

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) Epidemiology in an Integrated Pig Company of Northern Italy: A Multilevel Threat Requiring Multilevel Interventions

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is probably the most relevant viral disease affecting pig farming. Despite the remarkable efforts paid in terms of vaccination administration and biosecurity, eradication and long-term control have often been frustrated. Unfortunately, few studies are currently available that objectively link, using a formal statistical approach, viral molecular epidemiology to the risk factors determining the observed scenario. The purpose of the present study is to contribute to filling this knowledge gap taking advantage of the advancements in the field of phylodynamics. Approximately one-thousand ORF7 sequences were obtained from strains collected between 2004 and 2021 from the largest Italian pig company, which implements strict compartmentalization among independent three-sites (i.e., sow herds, nurseries and finishing units) pig flows. The history and dynamics of the viral population and its evolution over time were reconstructed and linked to managerial choices. The viral fluxes within and among independent pig flows were evaluated, and the contribution of other integrated pig companies and rurally risen pigs in mediating such spreading was investigated. Moreover, viral circulation in Northern Italy was reconstructed using a continuous phylogeographic approach, and the impact of several environmental features on PRRSV strain persistence and spreading velocity was assessed. The results demonstrate that PRRSV epidemiology is shaped by a multitude of factors, including pig herd management (e.g., immunization strategy), implementation of strict-independent pig flows, and environmental features (e.g., climate, altitude, pig density, road density, etc.) among the others. Small farms and rurally raised animals also emerged as a potential threat for larger, integrated companies. These pieces of evidence suggest that none of the implemented measures can be considered effective alone, and a multidimensional approach, ranging from individual herd management to collaboration and information sharing among different companies, is mandatory for effective infection control.

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Surveillance in breeding Herds and Nurseries Using Tongue Tips from Dead Animals

The detection capacity of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome virus (PRRSV) in tongues from dead animals in breeding herds (stillborns and piglets dying during the lactating period) and nursery farms (naturally dead animals) for PRRSV surveillance was evaluated. The samples were selected if pairs of serum and tongues were available from 2018 to 2020. Serum (pools of five) and exudate from tongues (one bag) were analyzed by PRRSV RT-PCR. The agreement between the serum sample procedure versus tongues exudate was assessed using a concordance test (Kappa statistic) at batch level. A total of 32 submissions, corresponding to 14 farms, had PRRSV diagnostic information for serum and tongues exudate. The overall agreement of batch classification as positive or negative, based on RT-PCR PRRSV results, between serum and tongue exudate of the 32 pairs was 76.9%. Cohen's Kappa was 0.55. The main discrepancy came from the presence of positive samples in tongues exudate and not in serum, suggesting that tongue exudate to monitor PRRSV seems to be more sensitive than serum. These results suggest that this sample procedure could be also used for PRRSV surveillance and monitoring.