Predicting mortality or recognizing death in meningococcal disease? Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) and Pediatric Index of Mortality (PIM)

Mortality prediction models for pediatric intensive care: comparison of overall and subgroup specific performance

AIM

To validate paediatric index of mortality (PIM) and pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) models within the overall population as well as in specific subgroups in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs).

METHODS

Variants of PIM and PRISM prediction models were compared with respect to calibration (agreement between predicted risks and observed mortality) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC). We considered performance in the overall study population and in subgroups, defined by diagnoses, age and urgency at admission, and length of stay (LoS) at the PICU. We analyzed data from consecutive patients younger than 16 years admitted to the eight PICUs in the Netherlands between February 2006 and October 2009. Patients referred to another ICU or deceased within 2 h after admission were excluded.

RESULTS

A total of 12,040 admissions were included, with 412 deaths. Variants of PIM2 were best calibrated. All models discriminated well, also in patients <28 days of age (neonates), with overall higher AUC for PRISM variants (PIM = 0.83, PIM2 = 0.85, PIM2-ANZ06 = 0.86, PIM2-ANZ08 = 0.85, PRISM = 0.88, PRISM3-24 = 0.90). Best discrimination for PRISM3-24 was confirmed in 13 out of 14 subgroup categories. After recalibration PRISM3-24 predicted accurately in most (12 out of 14) categories. Discrimination was poorer for all models (AUC < 0.73) after LoS of >6 days at the PICU.

CONCLUSION

All models discriminated well, also in most subgroups including neonates, but had difficulties predicting mortality for patients >6 days at the PICU. In a western European setting both the PIM2(-ANZ06) or a recalibrated version of PRISM3-24 are suited for overall individualized risk prediction.

Diagnostic efficacy of activated partial thromboplastin time waveform and procalcitonin analysis in pediatric meningococcal sepsis

OBJECTIVE

A biphasic activated partial thromboplastin time waveform predicts sepsis and disseminated intravascular coagulation in adults. This has not been previously investigated in children. Our aim is to ascertain whether there are changes in the activated partial thromboplastin time waveform in children with meningococcal disease and to compare its diagnostic use with procalcitonin.

SETTING

Alder Hey Children's National Health Service Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK.

PATIENTS

Thirty-six children admitted to the hospital for the treatment of suspected meningococcal disease had activated partial thromboplastin time waveform and procalcitonin analysis performed at admission. The light transmittance level at 18 secs was used to quantitate the waveform. Severity of disease was assessed using the Glasgow Meningococcal Septicaemia Prognostic Score, Pediatric Risk of Mortality III score, and the Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction score.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Twenty-four children had proven meningococcal disease, 12 had a presumed viral illness, and 20 control subjects were recruited. Transmittance level at 18 secs was lower in children with meningococcal disease and those with a viral illness (p < .0001) and control subjects (p < .0005). Sensitivity and specificity was 0.91 and 0.96 for transmittance level at 18 secs and 0.92 and 1 for procalcitonin in identifying meningococcal disease. There was a significant difference in procalcitonin between children with meningococcal disease and those with a viral illness and control subjects (p < .0005). A negative correlation was found between transmittance level at 18 secs and length of hospital stay (p < .0001), C-reactive protein (p < .0001), procalcitonin (p < .0001), Glasgow Meningococcal Septicaemia Prognostic Score (p < .01), Pediatric Risk of Mortality III score (p < .0001), and Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction score score (p < .0001).

CONCLUSION

The activated partial thromboplastin time waveform is abnormal in children with meningococcal disease and may be a useful adjunct in the diagnosis and management of sepsis in children.