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Zou H, Lu Z, Weng W, Yang L, Yang L, Leng X, Wang J, Lin YF, Wu J, Fu L, Zhang X, Li Y, Wang L, Wu X, Zhou X, Tian T, Huang L, Marra CM, Yang B, Yang TC, Ke W. Diagnosis of neurosyphilis in HIV-negative patients with syphilis: development, validation, and clinical utility of a suite of machine learning models. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 62:102080. [PMID: 37533423 PMCID: PMC10393556 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102080] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2023] [Revised: 06/19/2023] [Accepted: 06/19/2023] [Indexed: 08/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The ability to accurately identify the absolute risk of neurosyphilis diagnosis for patients with syphilis would allow preventative and therapeutic interventions to be delivered to patients at high-risk, sparing patients at low-risk from unnecessary care. We aimed to develop, validate, and evaluate the clinical utility of simplified clinical diagnostic models for neurosyphilis diagnosis in HIV-negative patients with syphilis. Methods We searched PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and UpToDate for publications about neurosyphilis diagnostic guidelines in English or Chinese from database inception until March 15, 2023. We developed and validated machine learning models with a uniform set of predictors based on six authoritative diagnostic guidelines across four continents to predict neurosyphilis using routinely collected data from real-world clinical practice in China and the United States (through the Dermatology Hospital of Southern Medical University in Guangzhou [659 recruited between August 2012 and March 2022, treated as Development cohort], the Beijing Youan Hospital of Capital Medical University in Beijng [480 recruited between December 2013 and April 2021, treated as External cohort 1], the Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University in Xiamen [493 recruited between November 2005 and November 2021, treated as External cohort 2] from China, and University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle [16 recruited between September 2002 and April 2014, treated as External cohort 3] from United States). We included all these patients with syphilis into our analysis, and no patients were further excluded. We trained eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models to predict the diagnostic outcome of neurosyphilis according to each diagnostic guideline in two scenarios, respectively. Model performance was measured through both internal and external validation in terms of discrimination and calibration, and clinical utility was evaluated using decision curve analysis. Findings The final simplified clinical diagnostic models included neurological symptoms, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) protein, CSF white blood cell, and CSF venereal disease research laboratory test/rapid plasma reagin. The models showed good calibration with rescaled Brier score of 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-1.00) and excellent discrimination (the minimum value of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.84; 95% CI 0.81-0.88) when externally validated. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the models were useful across a range of neurosyphilis probability thresholds between 0.33 and 0.66 compared to the alternatives of managing all patients with syphilis as if they do or do not have neurosyphilis. Interpretation The simplified clinical diagnostic models comprised of readily available data show good performance, are generalisable across clinical settings, and have clinical utility over a broad range of probability thresholds. The models with a uniform set of predictors can simplify the sophisticated clinical diagnosis of neurosyphilis, and guide decisions on delivery of neurosyphilis health-care, ultimately, support accurate diagnosis and necessary treatment. Funding The Natural Science Foundation of China General Program, Health Appropriate Technology Promotion Project of Guangdong Medical Research Foundation, Department of Science and technology of Guangdong Province Xinjiang Rural Science and Technology(Special Commissioner)Project, Southern Medical University Clinical Research Nursery Garden Project, Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals Incubating Program.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huachun Zou
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, China
| | - Zhen Lu
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, China
| | - Wenjia Weng
- Department of Dermatology, Beijing Youan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100012, China
| | - Ligang Yang
- Department of STD Clinic, Dermatology Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510091, China
| | - Luoyao Yang
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, China
| | - Xinying Leng
- Department of STD Clinic, Dermatology Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510091, China
| | - Junfeng Wang
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Clinical Pharmacology, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Yi-Fan Lin
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, China
| | - Jiaxin Wu
- Department of STD Clinic, Dermatology Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510091, China
| | - Leiwen Fu
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, China
| | - Xiaohui Zhang
- Department of STD Clinic, Dermatology Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510091, China
| | - Yuwei Li
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, China
| | - Liuyuan Wang
- Department of STD Clinic, Dermatology Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510091, China
| | - Xinsheng Wu
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, China
| | - Xinyi Zhou
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, China
| | - Tian Tian
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, China
| | - Lixia Huang
- Department of STD Clinic, Dermatology Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510091, China
| | - Christina M. Marra
- Department of Neurology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98104, USA
| | - Bin Yang
- Department of STD Clinic, Dermatology Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510091, China
| | - Tian-Ci Yang
- Center of Clinical Laboratory, Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361004, China
- Institute of Infectious Disease, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361004, China
| | - Wujian Ke
- Department of STD Clinic, Dermatology Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510091, China
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Chomba M, Siddiqi OK, Fwoloshi S, Mubanga E, Koralnik IJ, Marra C, Saylor D. Clinical presentation and outcomes of syphilitic meningitis among hospitalized adults in lusaka, Zambia. Int J STD AIDS 2022; 33:1038-1044. [DOI: 10.1177/09564624221112568] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Background Few studies exist to describe the characteristics of symptomatic syphilitic meningitis, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, despite a global resurgence. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of a cohort of adults with meningitis presenting to Zambia’s largest referral hospital between April 2014 and December 2017. Individuals with pyogenic bacterial and cryptococcal meningitis were excluded from this cohort. We calculated the prevalence of syphilitic meningitis in the cohort and described the demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics and outcomes. Results Of 512 participants, 273 were male, mean age was 37 ± 11 years and 84% were people living with HIV. The prevalence of syphilitic meningitis was 5% with in-hospital and 1-year mortality of 17% and 53%, respectively. Participants with syphilitic meningitis had lower Glasgow Coma Scores than those with other forms of meningitis. Among people living with HIV, those with syphilitic meningitis were less likely to have meningismus and had higher CSF white cell counts. Conclusions Syphilitic meningitis was found in 5% of Zambian adults presenting with non-pyogenic bacterial meningitis and non-cryptococcal meningitis, and one-year mortality was high. A high degree of clinical suspicion for syphilitic meningitis in all individuals with meningitis in Zambia is recommended, especially in people living with HIV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mashina Chomba
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Omar K Siddiqi
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
- Department of Neurology, Harvard Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Sombo Fwoloshi
- Department of Medicine, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Eugene Mubanga
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Igor J Koralnik
- Department of Neurology, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Christina Marra
- Department of Neurology, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Deanna Saylor
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
- Department of Medicine, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
- Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
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Guarner J, Jost H, Pillay A, Sun Y, Cox D, Notenboom R, Workowski K. Evaluation of treponemal serum tests performed on cerebrospinal fluid for diagnosis of neurosyphilis. Am J Clin Pathol 2015; 143:479-84. [PMID: 25779998 DOI: 10.1309/ajcpwsl3g8rxmcqr] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We evaluated the use of treponemal serum tests in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) to diagnose neurosyphilis since CSF-Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL) is specific but lacks sensitivity. METHODS We tested CSF specimens using the following treponemal serum tests: INNO-LIA, Treponema pallidum particle agglutination (TP-PA), Trep-Sure, and Maxi-Syph. The reference standard to calculate sensitivity and specificity was having two or more reactive/positive tests on CSF. RESULTS The reference standard group included 11 cases that fulfilled the definition of neurosyphilis (reactive CSF-VDRL plus symptoms) and three cases that did not fulfill the definition: two cases had neurologic symptoms but a nonreactive CSF-VDRL, and one had several positive CSF syphilis tests (reactive VDRL and positive treponemal and syphilis polymerase chain reaction) but no history (referred sample). Controls included 18 patients in whom a CSF-VDRL was performed the same week as patients in the reference group. The sensitivity was 85.7% (12/14) for CSF-VDRL, 92.9% (13/14) for Trep-Sure, 100% (10/10) for Maxi-Syph, 92.3% (12/13) for INNO-LIA, and 83.3% (10/12) for TP-PA. Specificity was 100% for all tests. CONCLUSIONS Treponemal serum tests performed on CSF were useful in identifying two patients with nonreactive CSF-VDRL.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeannette Guarner
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | - Heather Jost
- Syphilis Laboratory Reference and Research Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | - Allan Pillay
- Syphilis Laboratory Reference and Research Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | - Yongcheng Sun
- Syphilis Laboratory Reference and Research Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | - David Cox
- Syphilis Laboratory Reference and Research Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | | | - Kimberly Workowski
- Program Development and Quality Improvement Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
- Department of Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
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Lee JP, Koo SH, Jin SY, Kim TH. Experience of meningovascular syphilis in human immunodeficiency virus infected patient. J Korean Neurosurg Soc 2009; 46:413-6. [PMID: 19893736 DOI: 10.3340/jkns.2009.46.4.413] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2008] [Revised: 09/25/2009] [Accepted: 10/04/2009] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Since the start of the antibiotic era, syphilis has become rare. However, in recent times, it has tended to be prevalent concomitantly with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and coinfection in North America and Europe. Now, such cases are expected to increase in elsewhere including Korea. A 40-year-old male patient visited hospital complaining of a headache for about one month. Brain computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging, showed leptomeninged enhancing mass with edema an right porisylvian region, which was suspected to be glioma. Patient underwent a blood test and was diagnosed with syphilis and acquired immune deficiency syndrome. Partial cortical and subcortical resection were performed after small craniotomy. The dura was thick, adhered to the brain cortex, and was accompanied by hyperemic change of the cortex. The pathologic diagnosis was meningovascular syphilis (MS) in HIV infection. After the operation, the patient was treated with aqueous penicillin G. Thereafter, he had no neurological deficit except intermittent headache. At first, this case was suspected to be glioma, but it was eventually diagnosed as MS in HIV coinfection. At this point the case was judged to be worth reporting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jung-Pyo Lee
- Department of Neurosurgery, College of Medicine, Soonchunhyang University, Seoul, Korea
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