CLIP score as a prognostic indicator for hepatocellular carcinoma: experience with patients in the Middle East

Evaluation of eight different clinical staging systems associated with overall survival of chinese patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background:

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common cancer in China, an area of high hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Although several staging systems are available, there is no consensus on the best classification to use because multiple factors, such as etiology, clinical treatment and populations could affect the survival of HCC patients.

Methods:

This study analyzed 743 HBV-related Chinese HCC patients who received surgery first and evaluated the predictive values of eight different commonly used staging systems in the clinic.

Results:

The overall 1-, 3-, 5-year survival rates and a median survival were 91.5%, 70.3%, 55.3% and 72 months respectively. Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging systems had the best stratification ability and showed the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) values (2896.577), followed by tumor-node-metastasis 7^th (TNM 7^th) (AIC = 2899.980), TNM 6^th (AIC = 2902.17), Japan integrated staging score (AIC = 2918.085), Tokyo (AIC = 2938.822), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (AIC = 2941.950), Chinese University Prognostic Index grade (AIC = 2962.027), and Okuda (AIC = 2979.389).

Conclusions:

BCLC staging system is a better staging model for HBV infection patients with HCC in Chinese population among the eight currently used staging systems. These identifications afford a large group of Chinese HCC patients with HBV infection and could be helpful to design a new staging system for a certain population.

The challenge of prognosis and staging for hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a heterogeneous condition, with multiple confounding factors making patient assessment extremely complex. Tumor burden, the presence of symptoms, liver function, and comorbidities must all be considered to ensure accurate patient assessment, thereby providing physicians with a common language on which to base treatment decisions and guide research. Although many staging classifications have been developed, there is no consensus on the best classification to use. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system is a promising candidate for a standard western classification, because it has been externally validated and is endorsed by the European Association for the Study of the Liver and the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases. Similarly, the biomarker-combined Japanese Integrated Staging (JIS) score is the most promising candidate for a standard Asia-Pacific classification, because it has been externally validated and shown to be superior to conventional JIS. Because risk factors vary significantly by region, so too does the predictive power of current staging classifications; any standard global staging classification would need to be validated in both western and Asia-Pacific patients. To date, no such globally validated classification exists. Findings from scientific research have improved our understanding of HCC and enabled us to refine current classifications. The role of tumor markers to predict survival was recently reported, and α-fetoprotein, lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive α-fetoprotein, and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin have now been incorporated into some classifications. Molecular markers have also been linked with poor outcomes and will likely play a role in future classifications. Although more work is required, it is hoped that these and other ongoing research efforts will eventually enable the development of a global staging classification.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in Lebanon: Etiology and prognostic factors associated with short-term survival

AIM: To study the epidemiology of HCC in Lebanon and prognostic factors predictive of early mortality.

METHODS: An observational follow-up cohort study of HCC cases diagnosed over a five-year period was carried out. Multivariate analysis was conducted to identify prognostic factors in comparison to Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score. Multiple variables including the etiology of underlying liver disease, the demographic characteristics of patients, and the severity of liver disease evaluated by the Child-Pugh score were studied. Tumor parameters included the time of diagnosis of HCC, alpha-fetoprotein level, number and size of nodules, presence of portal vein thrombosis, and treatment modalities. Death or loss of follow-up was considered as an end-point event.

RESULTS: Ninety-two patients (mean 60.5 ± 22.3 years) were included. Etiology of underlying disease was hepatitis B, C, and alcohol in 67%, 20%, and 23.5% respectively. Child-Pugh class at diagnosis was A, B, and C in 34.8%, 39.3% and 25.8% respectively. Overall survival was 44.8%, 32.8% and 17.6% at 1, 2 and 3 years respectively (mean F/U 40.2 ± 23.5 mo). Multivariate analysis identified three predictors of early mortality (< 6 mo): bilirubin > 3.2 mg/dL (P < 0.01), HCC as first presentation of liver disease (P = 0.035), and creatinine > 1 mg/dL (P = 0.017). A score based on these variables outperformed the CLIP score by Cox proportional hazard. ROC curve showed both models to be equivalent and moderately accurate.

CONCLUSION: HBV is the leading cause of HCC in Lebanon. Independent predictors of early mortality are elevated bilirubin, creatinine and HCC as first manifestation of disease. Prospective validation of a score based on these clinical parameters in predicting short-term survival is needed.