Pretransplant model to predict posttransplant survival in liver transplant patients. Ann Surg. 2002;236:315-322; discussion 322-323. [PMID: 12192318 DOI: 10.1097/01.sla.0000026684.68004.1e]

Developing a donation after cardiac death risk index for adult and pediatric liver transplantation

AIM

To identify objective predictive factors for donor after cardiac death (DCD) graft loss and using those factors, develop a donor recipient stratification risk predictive model that could be used to calculate a DCD risk index (DCD-RI) to help in prospective decision making on organ use.

METHODS

The model included objective data from a single institute DCD database (2005-2013, n = 261). Univariate survival analysis was followed by adjusted Cox-regressional hazard model. Covariates selected via univariate regression were added to the model via forward selection, significance level P = 0.3. The warm ischemic threshold was clinically set at 30 min. Points were given to each predictor in proportion to their hazard ratio. Using this model, the DCD-RI was calculated. The cohort was stratified to predict graft loss risk and respective graft survival calculated.

RESULTS

DCD graft survival predictors were primary indication for transplant (P = 0.066), retransplantation (P = 0.176), MELD > 25 (P = 0.05), cold ischemia > 10 h (P = 0.292) and donor hepatectomy time > 60 min (P = 0.028). According to the calculated DCD-RI score three risk classes could be defined of low (DCD-RI < 1), standard (DCD-RI 2-4) and high risk (DCD-RI > 5) with a 5 years graft survival of 86%, 78% and 34%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The DCD-RI score independently predicted graft loss (P < 0.001) and the DCD-RI class predicted graft survival (P < 0.001).

Predictive factors for survival and score application in liver retransplantation for hepatitis C recurrence

AIM: To identify risk factors associated with survival in patients retransplanted for hepatitis C virus (HCV) recurrence and to apply a survival score to this population.

METHODS: We retrospectively identified 108 patients retransplanted for HCV recurrence in eight European liver transplantation centers (seven in France, one in Spain). Data collection comprised clinical and laboratory variables, including virological and antiviral treatment data. We then analyzed the factors associated with survival in this population. A recently published score that predicts survival in retransplantation in patients with hepatitis C was applied. Because there are currently no uniform recommendations regarding selection of the best candidates for retransplantation in this setting, we also described the clinical characteristics of 164 patients not retransplanted, with F3, F4, or fibrosing cholestatic hepatitis (FCH) post-first graft presenting with hepatic decompensation.

RESULTS: Overall retransplantation patient survival rates were 55%, 47%, and 43% at 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. Patients who were retransplanted for advanced cirrhosis had survival rates of 59%, 52%, and 49% at 3, 5, and 10 years, while those retransplanted for FCH had survival rates of 34%, 29%, and 11%, respectively. Under multivariate analysis, and adjusting for the center effect and the occurrence of FCH, factors associated with better survival after retransplantation were: negative HCV viremia before retransplantation, antiviral therapy after retransplantation, non-genotype 1, a Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score < 25 when replaced on the waiting list, and a retransplantation donor age < 60 years. Although the numbers were small, in the context of the new antivirals era, we showed that outcomes in patients who underwent retransplantation with undetectable HCV viremia did not depend on donor age and MELD score. The Andrés score was applied to 102 patients for whom all score variables were available, producing a mean score of 43.4 (SD = 6.6). Survival rates after the date of the first decompensation post-first liver transplantation (LT1) in the liver retransplantation (reLT) group (94 patients decompensated) at 3, 5, and 10 years were 62%, 59%, and 51%, respectively, among 78 retransplanted individuals with advanced cirrhosis, and 42%, 32%, and 16% among 16 retransplanted individuals with FCH. In the non-reLT group with hepatic decompensation, survival rates were 27%, 18%, and 9% at 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively (P < 0.0001). Compared with non-retransplanted patients, retransplanted patients were younger at LT1 (mean age 48 ± 8 years compared to 53 ± 9 years in the no reLT group, P < 0.0001), less likely to have human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection (4% vs 14% among no reLT patients, P = 0.005), more likely to have received corticosteroid bolus therapy after LT1 (25% in reLT vs 12% in the no reLT group, P = 0.01), and more likely to have presented with sustained virological response (SVR) after the first transplantation (20% in the reLT group vs 7% in the no reLT group, P = 0.028).

CONCLUSION: Antiviral therapy before and after retransplantation had a substantial impact on survival in the context of retransplantation for HCV recurrence, and with the new direct-acting antivirals now available, outcomes should be even better in the future.