N -terminal pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptides’ Prognostic Utility Is Overestimated in Meta-analyses Using Study-specific Optimal Diagnostic Thresholds

Prospective comparison of two methods for assessing sarcopenia and interobserver agreement on retrospective CT images

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

To compare the relationships between two CT derived sarcopenia assessment methods, and compare their relationship with inter-rater and intrarater validations and colorectal surgical outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN

157 CT scans were identified across Leeds Teaching Hospitals National Health Service Trust for patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery. 107 had body mass index data available, required to determine sarcopenia status. This work explores the relationship between sarcopenia, as measured by both total cross sectional-area (TCSA) and psoas-area (PA) and surgical outcomes. All images were assessed for inter-rater and intrarater variability for both TCSA and PA methods of sarcopenia identification. The raters included a radiologist, an anatomist and two medical students.

RESULTS

Prevalence of sarcopenia was different when measured by PA (12.2%-22.4%) in comparison to TCSA (60.8%-70.1%). Strong correlation exists between muscle areas in both TCSA and PA measures, however, there were significant differences between methods after the application of method-specific cut-offs. There was substantial agreement for both intrarater and inter-rater comparisons for both TCSA and PA sarcopenia measures. Outcome data were available for 99/107 patients. Both TCSA and PA have poor association with adverse outcomes following colorectal surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

CT-determined sarcopenia can be identified by junior clinicians, those with anatomical understanding and radiologists. Our study identified sarcopenia to have a poor association with adverse surgical outcomes in a colorectal population. Published methods of identifying sarcopenia are not translatable to all clinical populations. Currently available cut-offs require refinement for potential confounding factors, to provide more valuable clinical information.

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Assessment of prognostic value of intraoperative oliguria for postoperative acute kidney injury: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Oliguria is often viewed as a sign of renal hypoperfusion and an indicator for volume expansion during surgery. However, the prognostic association and the predictive utility of intraoperative oliguria for postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) are unclear.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study on patients undergoing major thoracic surgery in an academic hospital to assess the association of intraoperative oliguria with postoperative AKI and its predictive value. To contextualise our findings, we included our results in a meta-analysis of observational studies on the importance of oliguria during noncardiac surgery.

RESULTS

In our cohort study, 3862 patients were included; 205 (5.3%) developed AKI after surgery. Intraoperative urine output of 0.3 ml kg^-1 h^-1 was the optimal threshold for oliguria in multivariable analysis. Patients with oliguria had an increased risk of AKI (adjusted odds ratio: 2.60; 95% confidence interval: 1.24-5.05). However, intraoperative oliguria had a sensitivity of 5.9%, specificity of 98%, positive likelihood ratio of 2.74, and negative likelihood ratio of 0.96, suggesting poor predictive ability. Moreover, it did not improve upon the predictive performance of a multivariable model, based on discrimination and reclassification indices. Our findings were generally consistent with the results of a systematic review and meta-analysis, including six additional studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Intraoperative oliguria has moderate association with, but poor predictive ability for, postoperative AKI. It remains of clinical interest as a risk factor potentially modifiable to interventions.

Prevalence and prognostic value of elevated troponins in patients hospitalised for coronavirus disease 2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The clinical significance of cardiac troponin measurement in patients hospitalised for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) is uncertain. We investigated the prevalence of elevated troponins in these patients and its prognostic value for predicting mortality.

METHODS

Studies were identified by searching electronic databases and preprint servers. We included studies of hospitalised covid-19 patients that reported the frequency of troponin elevations above the upper reference limit and/or the association between troponins and mortality. Meta-analyses were performed using random-effects models.

RESULTS

Fifty-one studies were included. Elevated troponins were found in 20.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 16.8-25.0 %) of patients who received troponin test on hospital admission. Elevated troponins on admission were associated with a higher risk of subsequent death (risk ratio 2.68, 95% CI 2.08-3.46) after adjusting for confounders in multivariable analysis. The pooled sensitivity of elevated admission troponins for predicting death was 0.60 (95% CI 0.54-0.65), and the specificity was 0.83 (0.77-0.88). The post-test probability of death was about 42% for patients with elevated admission troponins and was about 9% for those with non-elevated troponins on admission. There was significant heterogeneity in the analyses, and many included studies were at risk of bias due to the lack of systematic troponin measurement and inadequate follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Elevated troponins were relatively common in patients hospitalised for covid-19. Troponin measurement on admission might help in risk stratification, especially in identifying patients at high risk of death when troponin levels are elevated. High-quality prospective studies are needed to validate these findings.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020176747.

Meta-analysis of preoperative high-sensitivity cardiac troponin measurement in non-cardiac surgical patients at risk of cardiovascular complications

Background

Patients undergoing major non-cardiac surgery are at risk of cardiovascular complications. Raised levels of high-sensitivity troponin are frequently detected before operation among these patients. However, the prognostic value of high-sensitivity troponin in predicting postoperative outcomes remains unclear.

Methods

A systematic search of PubMed, Embase and Science Citation Index Expanded was undertaken for observational studies published before March 2018 that reported associations between raised preoperative levels of high-sensitivity troponin and postoperative major adverse cardiac events and/or mortality after non-cardiac surgery. Meta-analyses were performed, where possible, using random-effects models.

Results

Seven cohort studies with a total of 4836 patients were included. A raised preoperative high-sensitivity troponin level was associated with a higher risk of short-term major adverse cardiac events (risk ratio (RR) 2·92, 95 per cent c.i. 1·96 to 4·37; I2 = 82·6 per cent), short-term mortality (RR 5·39, 3·21 to 9·06; I2 = 0 per cent) and long-term mortality (RR 2·90, 1·83 to 4·59, I2 = 74·2 per cent). The addition of preoperative high-sensitivity troponin measurement provided improvements in cardiovascular risk discrimination (increase in C-index ranged from 0·058 to 0·109) and classification (quantified by continuous net reclassification improvement) compared with Lee's Revised Cardiac Risk Index alone. There was substantial heterogeneity and inadequate risk stratification analysis in the included studies.

Conclusion

Raised preoperative levels of high-sensitivity troponin appear to represent a risk for postoperative major adverse cardiac events and mortality. Further study is required before high-sensitivity troponin can be used to predict risk stratification in routine clinical practice.

Improving Prediction of Postoperative Myocardial Infarction With High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T and NT-proBNP

BACKGROUND

This study sought to determine whether preoperatively measured high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) improve cardiac risk prediction in patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery compared with the standard risk indices.

METHODS

In this ancillary study to the Vitamins in Nitrous Oxide trial, patients were included who had preoperative hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP measured (n = 572). Study outcome was the incidence of postoperative myocardial infarction (MI) within the first 3 postoperative days. hs-cTnT was considered elevated if >14 ng/L and NT-proBNP if >300 ng/L. Additional cutoff values were investigated on the basis of receiver operating characteristic statistics. Biomarker risk prediction was compared with Lee's Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) with the use of standard methods and net reclassification index.

RESULTS

The addition of hs-cTnT (>14 ng/L) and NT-proBNP (>300 ng/L) to RCRI significantly improved the prediction of postoperative MI (event rate 30/572 [5.2%], Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increased from 0.590 to 0.716 with a 0.66 net reclassification index [95% confidence interval 0.32-0.99], P < .001). The use of 108 ng/L as a cutoff for NT-proBNP improved sensitivity compared with 300 ng/L (0.87 vs 0.53). Sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive value for hs-cTnT were 0.70, 0.60, 0.09, and 0.97 and for NT-proBNP were 0.53, 0.68, 0.08, and 0.96.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of cardiac biomarkers hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP to RCRI improves the prediction of adverse cardiac events in the immediate postoperative period after major noncardiac surgery. The high negative predictive value of preoperative hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP suggest usefulness as a "rule-out" test to confirm low risk of postoperative MI.

Prognostic Markers of Outcome in Patients Undergoing Infra-inguinal Revascularisation: A Prospective Observational Pilot Study

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to investigate whether cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) variables derived from cycle and arm ergonometry correlate, and whether CPET variables and pre-operative N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) have prognostic significance and if the combination of the two has incremental value.

METHODS

A prospective observational pilot study was conducted; 70 patients who underwent infra-inguinal bypass surgery were recruited. Pre-operatively subjects underwent CPET with both arm and leg ergonometry, to measure peak oxygen consumption, anaerobic threshold (AT), and ventilatory equivalents. In addition pre-operative serum samples of NT-proBNP were obtained. The primary endpoint was 1 year all-cause mortality; in addition, data were collected on complications, morbidity, length of stay, and major adverse cardiac events (MACE).

RESULTS

The 1 year mortality rate was 6%, the overall complications rate was 23%, and the combined incidence of MACE and 1 year mortality was 10%. Cycle ergonometry peak VO₂ 14 mL/kg/min (RR 5.5, 95% CI 1.4-22.4, p = .007) and AT < 10mL/kg/min (RR 3.0, 95% CI 1.1-7.0, p = .03) were predictors of post-operative complications. Pre-operative NT-proBNP > 320 ng/L (RR 18, 95% CI 2.5-140 p = .0003) was the sole predictor of 1 year mortality or MACE.

CONCLUSION

The measurement of pre-operative NT-proBNP in peripheral vascular disease patients undergoing infra-inguinal bypass can predict 1 year mortality and MACE. CPET variables from cycle ergonometry are predictors of post-operative complications in this patient group.

N-terminal pro B type natriuretic peptide in high cardiovascular-risk patients for noncardiac surgery: What is the current prognostic evidence?

As millions of surgical procedures are performed worldwide on an aging population with multiple comorbidities, accurate and simple perioperative risk stratification is critical. The cardiac biomarker, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), has generated considerable interest as it is easy to obtain and appears to have powerful predictive and prognostic capabilities. BNP is currently being used to guide medical therapy for heart failure and has been added to several algorithms for perioperative risk stratification. This review examines the current evidence for the use of BNP in the perioperative period in patients who are at high-cardiovascular risk for noncardiac surgery. In addition, we examined the use of BNP in patients with pulmonary embolism and left ventricular assist devices. The available data strongly suggest that the addition of BNP to perioperative risk calculators is beneficial; however, whether this determination of risk will impact outcomes, remains to be seen.

Preoperative Laboratory Testing

Routine preoperative testing is not cost-effective, because it is unlikely to identify significant abnormalities. Abnormal findings from routine testing are more likely to be false positive, are costly to pursue, introduce a new risk, increase the patient's anxiety, and are inconvenient to the patient. Abnormal findings rarely alter the surgical or anesthetic plan, and there is usually no association between perioperative complications and abnormal laboratory results. Incidental findings and false positive results may lead to increased hospital visits and admissions. Preoperative testing needs to be done based on a targeted history and physical examination and the type of surgery.