Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Who Will Develop Myopia in the Following Year as a Criterion to Define Premyopia

Predicting the onset of myopia in children by age, sex, and ethnicity: Results from the CLEERE Study

SIGNIFICANCE

Clinicians and researchers would benefit from being able to predict the onset of myopia for an individual child. This report provides a model for calculating the probability of myopia onset, year-by-year and cumulatively, based on results from the largest, most ethnically diverse study of myopia onset in the United States.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to model the probability of the onset of myopia in previously nonmyopic school-aged children.

METHODS

Children aged 6 years to less than 14 years of age at baseline participating in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study who were nonmyopic and less hyperopic than +3.00 D (spherical equivalent) were followed up for 1 to 7 years through eighth grade. Annual measurements included cycloplegic autorefraction, keratometry, ultrasound axial dimensions, and parental report of children's near work and time spent in outdoor and/or sports activities. The onset of myopia was defined as the first visit with at least -0.75 D of myopia in each principal meridian. The predictive model was built using discrete time survival analysis and evaluated with C statistics.

RESULTS

The model of the probability of the onset of myopia included cycloplegic spherical equivalent refractive error, the horizontal/vertical component of astigmatism (J0), age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Onset of myopia was more likely with lower amounts of hyperopia and less positive/more negative values of J0. Younger Asian American females had the highest eventual probability of onset, whereas older White males had the lowest. Model performance increased with older baseline age, with C statistics ranging from 0.83 at 6 years of age to 0.92 at 13 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The probability of the onset of myopia can be estimated for children in the major racial/ethnic groups within the United States on a year-by-year and cumulative basis up to age 14 years based on a simple set of refractive error and demographic variables.

Fundus Tessellated Density of Pathologic Myopia

PURPOSE

The study aimed to quantitatively evaluate the fundus tessellated density (FTD) in different categories of pathologic myopia (PM) using fundus photographs with the application of artificial intelligence.

METHODS

A retrospective review of 407 PM (META-PM, Category 2-Category 4) eyes was conducted, employing a biomimetic mechanism of human vision and integrated image processing technologies for FTD extraction and calculation. Different regions of interest were analyzed, including circle O4.5 (optic disc centered, diameter of 4.5 mm) and circle M1.0, M3.0, M6.0 (macular centered, diameter of 1.0, 3.0, and 6.0 mm), using 2 partitioning methods ("X" and "+"). The density of patchy (Category 3) or macular atrophy (Category 4) areas was quantified. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed to assess the association with FTD.

RESULTS

The mean FTD of total PM eyes was 0.283, ranging from 0.002 to 0.500, and demonstrating a negative correlation with the PM category. In multivariate analysis, age was found to be significantly associated with FTD ( P <0.05), while axial length did not show a significant association. Fundus tessellation of circle O4.5 and circle M6.0 displayed associations with the FTD across different PM categories. The "X" partitioning method better fit the circle M6.0 region, while both methods were suitable for the circle O4.5 region. After excluding the patchy and macular atrophic areas, the mean FTD values were 0.346 in Category 2, 0.261 in Category 3, and 0.186 in Category 4.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed a decreasing trend in FTD values across different categories of PM, regardless of the presence or absence of patchy or macular atrophic areas. Quantifying FTD in PM could be a valuable tool for improving the existing PM classification system and gaining insights into the origin of posterior staphyloma and visual field defects in high myopia.