Application of Cooperative Game Theory Principles to Interpret Machine Learning Models of Nonhome Discharge Following Spine Surgery

Enhancing Ki-67 Prediction in Breast Cancer: Integrating Intratumoral and Peritumoral Radiomics From Automated Breast Ultrasound via Machine Learning

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Traditional Ki-67 evaluation in breast cancer (BC) via core needle biopsy is limited by repeatability and heterogeneity. The automated breast ultrasound system (ABUS) offers reproducibility but is constrained to morphological and echoic assessments. Radiomics and machine learning (ML) offer solutions, but their integration for improving Ki-67 predictive accuracy in BC remains unexplored. This study aims to enhance ABUS by integrating ML-assisted radiomics for Ki-67 prediction in BC, with a focus on both intratumoral and peritumoral regions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 936 BC patients, split into training (n = 655) and testing (n = 281) cohorts. Radiomics features were extracted from intra- and peritumoral regions via ABUS. Feature selection involved Z-score normalization, intraclass correlation, Wilcoxon rank sum tests, minimum redundancy maximum relevance, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression. ML classifiers were trained and optimized for enhanced predictive accuracy. The interpretability of the optimized model was further augmented by employing Shapley additive explanations (SHAP).

RESULTS

Of the 2632 radiomics features in each patient, 15 were significantly associated with Ki-67 levels. The support vector machine (SVM) was identified as the optimal classifier, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.868 (training) and 0.822 (testing). SHAP analysis indicated that five peritumoral and two intratumoral features, along with age and lymph node status, were key determinants in the predictive model.

CONCLUSION

Integrating ML with ABUS-based radiomics effectively enhances Ki-67 prediction in BC, demonstrating the SVM model's strong performance with both radiomics and clinical factors.

Postoperative Discharge to Acute Rehabilitation or Skilled Nursing Facility Compared With Home Does Not Reduce Hospital Readmissions, Return to Surgery, or Improve Outcomes Following Adult Spine Deformity Surgery

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective review of a prospective multicenter adult spinal deformity (ASD) study.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate 30-day readmissions, 90-day return to surgery, postoperative complications, and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) for matched ASD patients receiving nonhome discharge (NON), including acute rehabilitation (REHAB), and skilled nursing facility (SNF), or home (HOME) discharge following ASD surgery.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Postoperative disposition following ASD surgery frequently involves nonhome discharge. Little data exists for longer term outcomes for ASD patients receiving nonhome discharge versus patients discharged to home.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Surgically treated ASD patients prospectively enrolled into a multicenter study were assessed for NON or HOME disposition following hospital discharge. NON was further divided into REHAB or SNF. Propensity score matching was used to match for patient age, frailty, spine deformity, levels fused, and osteotomies performed at surgery. Thirty-day hospital readmissions, 90-day return to surgery, postoperative complications, and 1-year and minimum 2-year postoperative PROs were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 241 of 374 patients were eligible for the study. NON patients were identified and matched to HOME patients. Following matching, 158 patients remained for evaluation; NON and HOME had similar preoperative age, frailty, spine deformity magnitude, surgery performed, and duration of hospital stay ( P >0.05). Thirty-day readmissions, 90-day return to surgery, and postoperative complications were similar for NON versus HOME and similar for REHAB (N=64) versus SNF (N=42) versus HOME ( P >0.05). At 1-year and minimum 2-year follow-up, HOME demonstrated similar to better PRO scores including Oswestry Disability Index, Short-Form 36v2 questionnaire Mental Component Score and Physical Component Score, and Scoliosis Research Society scores versus NON, REHAB, and SNF ( P <0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Acute needs must be considered following ASD surgery, however, matched analysis comparing 30-day hospital readmissions, 90-day return to surgery, postoperative complications, and PROs demonstrated minimal benefit for NON, REHAB, or SNF versus HOME at 1- and 2-year follow-up, questioning the risk and cost/benefits of routine use of nonhome discharge.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III-prognostic.

Reliable Prediction of Discharge Disposition Following Cervical Spine Surgery With Ensemble Machine Learning and Validation on a National Cohort

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to develop a machine learning algorithm to predict nonhome discharge after cervical spine surgery that is validated and usable on a national scale to ensure generalizability and elucidate candidate drivers for prediction.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Excessive length of hospital stay can be attributed to delays in postoperative referrals to intermediate care rehabilitation centers or skilled nursing facilities. Accurate preoperative prediction of patients who may require access to these resources can facilitate a more efficient referral and discharge process, thereby reducing hospital and patient costs in addition to minimizing the risk of hospital-acquired complications.

METHODS

Electronic medical records were retrospectively reviewed from a single-center data warehouse (SCDW) to identify patients undergoing cervical spine surgeries between 2008 and 2019 for machine learning algorithm development and internal validation. The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database was queried to identify cervical spine fusion surgeries between 2009 and 2017 for external validation of algorithm performance. Gradient-boosted trees were constructed to predict nonhome discharge across patient cohorts. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to measure model performance. SHAP values were used to identify nonlinear risk factors for nonhome discharge and to interpret algorithm predictions.

RESULTS

A total of 3523 cases of cervical spine fusion surgeries were included from the SCDW data set, and 311,582 cases were isolated from NIS. The model demonstrated robust prediction of nonhome discharge across all cohorts, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 (SD=0.01) on both the SCDW and nationwide NIS test sets. Anterior approach only, age, elective admission status, Medicare insurance status, and total Elixhauser Comorbidity Index score were the most important predictors of discharge destination.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning algorithms reliably predict nonhome discharge across single-center and national cohorts and identify preoperative features of importance following cervical spine fusion surgery.

Limitations in Evaluating Machine Learning Models for Imbalanced Binary Outcome Classification in Spine Surgery: A Systematic Review

Clinical prediction models for spine surgery applications are on the rise, with an increasing reliance on machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL). Many of the predicted outcomes are uncommon; therefore, to ensure the models' effectiveness in clinical practice it is crucial to properly evaluate them. This systematic review aims to identify and evaluate current research-based ML and DL models applied for spine surgery, specifically those predicting binary outcomes with a focus on their evaluation metrics. Overall, 60 papers were included, and the findings were reported according to the PRISMA guidelines. A total of 13 papers focused on lengths of stay (LOS), 12 on readmissions, 12 on non-home discharge, 6 on mortality, and 5 on reoperations. The target outcomes exhibited data imbalances ranging from 0.44% to 42.4%. A total of 59 papers reported the model's area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), 28 mentioned accuracies, 33 provided sensitivity, 29 discussed specificity, 28 addressed positive predictive value (PPV), 24 included the negative predictive value (NPV), 25 indicated the Brier score with 10 providing a null model Brier, and 8 detailed the F1 score. Additionally, data visualization varied among the included papers. This review discusses the use of appropriate evaluation schemes in ML and identifies several common errors and potential bias sources in the literature. Embracing these recommendations as the field advances may facilitate the integration of reliable and effective ML models in clinical settings.

Development of an interpretable machine learning model for Ki-67 prediction in breast cancer using intratumoral and peritumoral ultrasound radiomics features

Background

Traditional immunohistochemistry assessment of Ki-67 in breast cancer (BC) via core needle biopsy is invasive, inaccurate, and nonrepeatable. While machine learning (ML) provides a promising alternative, its effectiveness depends on extensive data. Although the current mainstream MRI-centered radiomics offers sufficient data, its unsuitability for repeated examinations, along with limited accessibility and an intratumoral focus, constrain the application of predictive models in evaluating Ki-67 levels.

Objective

This study aims to explore ultrasound (US) image-based radiomics, incorporating both intra- and peritumoral features, to develop an interpretable ML model for predicting Ki-67 expression in BC patients.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 263 BC patients, divided into training and external validation cohorts. From intratumoral and peritumoral regions of interest (ROIs) in US images, 849 distinctive radiomics features per ROI were derived. These features underwent systematic selection to analyze Ki-67 expression relationships. Four ML models-logistic regression, random forests, support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting-were formulated and internally validated to identify the optimal predictive model. External validation was executed to ascertain the robustness of the optimal model, followed by employing Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) to reveal the significant features of the model.

Results

Among 231 selected BC patients, 67.5% exhibited high Ki-67 expression, with consistency observed across both training and validation cohorts as well as other clinical characteristics. Of the 1698 radiomics features identified, 15 were significantly correlated with Ki-67 expression. The SVM model, utilizing combined ROI, demonstrated the highest accuracy [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC): 0.88], making it the most suitable for predicting Ki-67 expression. External validation sustained an AUROC of 0.82, affirming the model's robustness above a 40% threshold. SHAP analysis identified five influential features from intra- and peritumoral ROIs, offering insight into individual prediction.

Conclusion

This study emphasized the potential of SVM model using radiomics features from both intra- and peritumoral US images, for predicting elevated Ki-67 levels in BC patients. The model exhibited strong performance in validations, indicating its promise as a noninvasive tool to enable personalized decision-making in BC care.

Prognostic estimation for acute ischemic stroke patients undergoing mechanical thrombectomy within an extended therapeutic window using an interpretable machine learning model

Background

Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is effective for acute ischemic stroke with large vessel occlusion (AIS-LVO) within an extended therapeutic window. However, successful reperfusion does not guarantee positive prognosis, with around 40-50% of cases yielding favorable outcomes. Preoperative prediction of patient outcomes is essential to identify those who may benefit from MT. Although machine learning (ML) has shown promise in handling variables with non-linear relationships in prediction models, its "black box" nature and the absence of ML models for extended-window MT prognosis remain limitations.

Objective

This study aimed to establish and select the optimal model for predicting extended-window MT outcomes, with the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) approach used to enhance the interpretability of the selected model.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 260 AIS-LVO patients undergoing extended-window MT. Selected patients were allocated into training and test sets at a 3:1 ratio following inclusion and exclusion criteria. Four ML classifiers and one logistic regression (Logit) model were constructed using pre-treatment variables from the training set. The optimal model was selected through comparative validation, with key features interpreted using the SHAP approach. The effectiveness of the chosen model was further evaluated using the test set.

Results

Of the 212 selected patients, 159 comprised the training and 53 the test sets. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) showed the highest discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.93 during validation, and maintained an AUC of 0.77 during testing. SHAP analysis identified ischemic core volume, baseline NHISS score, ischemic penumbra volume, ASPECTS, and patient age as the top five determinants of outcome prediction.

Conclusion

XGBoost emerged as the most effective for predicting the prognosis of AIS-LVO patients undergoing MT within the extended therapeutic window. SHAP interpretation improved its clinical confidence, paving the way for ML in clinical decision-making.

Robust prediction of nonhome discharge following elective anterior cervical discectomy and fusion using explainable machine learning

PURPOSE

Predict nonhome discharge (NHD) following elective anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) using an explainable machine learning model.

METHODS

2227 patients undergoing elective ACDF from 2008 to 2019 were identified from a single institutional database. A machine learning model was trained on preoperative variables, including demographics, comorbidity indices, and levels fused. The validation technique was repeated stratified K-Fold cross validation with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) statistic as the performance metric. Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values were calculated to provide further explainability regarding the model's decision making.

RESULTS

The preoperative model performed with an AUROC of 0.83 ± 0.05. SHAP scores revealed the most pertinent risk factors to be age, medicare insurance, and American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) score. Interaction analysis demonstrated that female patients over 65 with greater fusion levels were more likely to undergo NHD. Likewise, ASA demonstrated positive interaction effects with female sex, levels fused and BMI.

CONCLUSION

We validated an explainable machine learning model for the prediction of NHD using common preoperative variables. Adding transparency is a key step towards clinical application because it demonstrates that our model's "thinking" aligns with clinical reasoning. Interactive analysis demonstrated that those of age over 65, female sex, higher ASA score, and greater fusion levels were more predisposed to NHD. Age and ASA score were similar in their predictive ability. Machine learning may be used to predict NHD, and can assist surgeons with patient counseling or early discharge planning.

An Evolution Gaining Momentum—The Growing Role of Artificial Intelligence in the Diagnosis and Treatment of Spinal Diseases

In recent years, applications using artificial intelligence have been gaining importance in the diagnosis and treatment of spinal diseases. In our review, we describe the basic features of artificial intelligence which are currently applied in the field of spine diagnosis and treatment, and we provide an orientation of the recent technical developments and their applications. Furthermore, we point out the possible limitations and challenges in dealing with such technological advances. Despite the momentary limitations in practical application, artificial intelligence is gaining ground in the field of spine treatment. As an applying physician, it is therefore necessary to engage with it in order to benefit from those advances in the interest of the patient and to prevent these applications being misused by non-medical partners.