Evaluation of mathematical models for breast cancer risk assessment in routine clinical use

Predicting cancer risk based on family history

A new software package provides more accurate cancer risk prediction profiles and has the ability to integrate more genes and cancer types in the future.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Nipple Aspirate Fluid Cytology in Asymptomatic Patients: A Meta-analysis and Systematic Review of the Literature

PURPOSE

To calculate the diagnostic accuracy of nipple aspirate fluid (NAF) cytology.

BACKGROUND

Evaluation of NAF cytology in asymptomatic patients conceptually offers a non-invasive method for either screening for breast cancer or else predicting or stratifying future cancer risk.

METHODS

Studies were identified by performing electronic searches up to August 2019. A meta-analysis was conducted to attain an overall pooled sensitivity and specificity of NAF for breast cancer detection.

RESULTS

A search through 938 studies yielded a total of 19 studies. Overall, 9308 patients were examined, with cytology results from 10,147 breasts [age (years), mean ± SD = 49.73 ± 4.09 years]. Diagnostic accuracy meta-analysis of NAF revealed a pooled specificity of 0.97 (95% CI 0.97-0.98), and sensitivity of 0.64 (95% CI 0.62-0.66).

CONCLUSIONS

The diagnostic accuracy of nipple smear cytology is limited by poor sensitivity. If nipple fluid assessment is to be used for diagnosis, then emerging technologies for fluid biomarker analysis must supersede the current diagnostic accuracy of NAF cytology.

Identification, Evaluation, and Treatment of Patients with Hereditary Cancer Risk within the United States

Recognizing the importance of identifying patients at high risk for inherited cancer predisposition, the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) has outlined specific family history patterns associated with an increased risk for BRCA mutations. However, national data indicate a need to facilitate the ability of primary care providers to appropriately identify high risk patients. Once a patient is identified as high risk, it is necessary for the patient to undergo a detailed genetics evaluation to generate a differential diagnosis, determine a cost-effective genetic testing strategy, and interpret results of testing. With identification of inherited predisposition, risk management strategies in line with national guidelines can be implemented to improve patient outcomes through cancer risk reduction and early detection. As use of genetic testing increasingly impacts patient outcomes, the role of primary care providers in the identification and care of individuals at high risk for hereditary cancer becomes even more important. Nevertheless it should be acknowledged that primary care providers face many competing demands and challenges to identify high risk patients. Therefore initiatives which promote multidisciplinary and coordinated care, potentially through academic-community partnerships, may provide an opportunity to enhance care of these patients.

Validation of three BRCA1/2 mutation-carrier probability models Myriad, BRCAPRO and BOADICEA in a population-based series of 183 German families

Many studies have evaluated the performance of risk assessment models for BRCA1/2 mutation carrier probabilities in different populations, but to our knowledge very few studies have been conducted in the German population so far. In the recent study, we validated the performance of three risk calculation models by names BRCAPRO, Myriad and BOADICEA in 183 German families who had undergone molecular testing of mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 with an indication based on clinical criteria regarding their family history of cancer. The sensitivity and specificity at the conventional threshold of 10% as well as for a threshold of 20% were evaluated. The ability to discriminate between carriers and non-carriers was judged by the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. We further focused on the performance characteristic of these models in patients carrying large genomic rearrangements as a subtype of mutations which is currently gaining increasing importance. BRCAPRO and BOADICEA performed almost equally well in our patient population, but we found a lack of agreement to Myriad. The results obtained from this study were consistent with previously published results from other population and racial/ethnic groups. We suggest using model specific decision thresholds instead of the recommended universal value of 10%. We further suggest integrating the CaGene5 software package, which includes BRCAPRO and Myriad, in the genetic counselling of German families with suspected inherited breast and ovarian cancer because of the good performance of BRCAPRO and the substantial ease of use of this software.

Implications of single nucleotide polymorphisms in CD44 exon 2 for risk of breast cancer

CD44 is a cell-surface glycoprotein involved in many cellular functions including lymphocyte activation, recirculation and homing, hematopoiesis and tumor metastasis, suggesting that CD44 may play an important role in breast cancer development. In this study, we examined whether CD44 exon 2 polymorphisms are associated with increased susceptibility to breast cancer. Direct nucleotide sequencing analysis showed that multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms were present in the CD44 exon 2 coding region in female patients with breast cancer. There was no significant difference in the frequency of any one single nucleotide polymorphism in the CD44 exon 2 coding region between patients with breast cancer and normal donors. However, CD44 polymorphisms in the CD44 exon 2 coding region were identified in approximately 40% of patients with breast cancer, which was significantly higher than in normal donors (odds ratio, 9.34; 95% confidence interval = 2.58-33.82; P < 0.0001). The Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test analysis showed that the patients with the CD44 polymorphisms in CD44 exon 2 coding sequence had breast cancer at earlier ages, 49 ± 3 versus 62 ± 2 years (P < 0.0005), and larger tumor burdens (4.9 ± 1.22 vs. 1.6 ± 0.15 mm, P < 0.01) at the time of diagnosis. Interestingly, African-American female patients having the CD44 polymorphisms in CD44 exon 2 coding sequence were diagnosed with breast cancer at very young age (41 ± 2 years). Our results show that CD44 exon 2 polymorphisms are associated with breast cancer development, and such analysis may be effectively used in the evaluation of risk, prediction of cancer, prevention, diagnosis, and epidemiological studies of breast cancer.

Risk assessment in familial breast cancer

Women with a history of breast cancer are common at centers for cancer genetic risk all over Europe. Given limited health care resources, managing this demand, while achieving good value for money coming from health services, is generally a major challenge. This paper recapitulates and summarizes the available methods of the risk assessment of familial breast cancer. After a systematic review of the literature Gail-model, Claus-model and BOADICEA-model were selected, as well as softwares (LINKAGE software; MENDEL v3.3 software) available in the application of these algorhythms are also summarized. Comparisons were made between the models concerning their advantages and disadvantages. The really reliable methods of risk estimation of familial breast cancer are always based on the analysis of the pedigree structure and allow the estimation of the patient’s probability of carrying a susceptibility gene under a particular genetic model, given her family history. For this method the knowledge of BRCA mutation status is absolutely indispensable. The methods of BRCA mutation analysis as well as the main characteristics of the occurrence of BRCA mutation carrier condition are discussed in details. Orv. Hetil., 2011, 152, 758–762.

Founder BRCA1/2 mutations in the Europe: implications for hereditary breast-ovarian cancer prevention and control

Detection of mutations in hereditary breast and ovarian cancer-related BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes is an effective method of cancer prevention and early detection. Different ethnic and geographical regions have different BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation spectrum and prevalence. Along with the emerging targeted therapy, demand and uptake for rapid BRCA1/2 mutations testing will increase in a near future. However, current patients selection and genetic testing strategies in most countries impose significant lag in this practice. The knowledge of the genetic structure of particular populations is important for the developing of effective screening protocol and may provide more efficient approach for the individualization of genetic testing. Elucidating of founder effect in BRCA1/2 genes can have an impact on the management of hereditary cancer families on a national and international healthcare system level, making genetic testing more affordable and cost-effective. The purpose of this review is to summarize current evidence about the BRCA1/2 founder mutations diversity in European populations.

Breast cancer risk assessment in a mammography screening program and participation in the IBIS-II chemoprevention trial

It has been shown in several studies that antihormonal compounds can offer effective prophylactic treatment to prevent breast cancer. In view of the low participation rates in chemoprevention trials, the purpose of this study was to identify the characteristics of women taking part in a population-based mammography screening program who wished to obtain information about the risk of breast cancer and then participate in the the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study II (IBIS-II) trial, a randomized double-blind controlled chemoprevention trial comparing anastrozole with placebo. A paper-based survey was conducted in a population-based mammography screening program in Germany between 2007 and 2009. All women who met the criteria for the mammography screening program were invited to complete a questionnaire. A total of 2,524 women completed the questionnaire, and 17.7% (n = 446) met the eligibility criteria for the IBIS-II trial after risk assessment. The women who wished to receive further information about chemoprevention were significantly younger (P < 0.01) and had significantly more children (P = 0.03) and significantly more relatives with breast cancer (P < 0.001). There were no significant differences between the participants with regard to body mass index or hormone replacement therapy. Normal mammographic findings at screening were the main reason (42%) for declining to participate in the IBIS-II trial or attend risk counseling. The ultimate rate of recruitment to the IBIS-II trial was very low (three women). Offering chemoprevention to women within a mammography screening unit as part of a paper-based survey resulted in low participation rates for both, the survey and the final participation in the IBIS-II trial. More individualized approaches and communication of breast cancer risk at the time of the risk assessment might be helpful to increase the participation and the understanding of chemopreventive approaches.

Screening for founder mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 in unselected Jewish women

PURPOSE

There are two mutations in BRCA1 and one mutation in BRCA2 that are present in up to 2.5% of Ashkenazi Jewish women. Current guidelines for testing stipulate that a personal or family history of cancer be present to be eligible for testing. To date, population screening in this population has not been suggested. However, this may be rational. Little is known about the appropriateness of testing guidelines for the Jewish population or the level of interest in testing.

METHODS

Eligible subjects were women who self-identified as Jewish, who were between the ages of 25 and 80 years, and who resided in Ontario. Subjects were recruited through an article in a national newspaper. Women were asked to complete a study questionnaire and a family history questionnaire and to provide a blood or saliva sample. The risk of carrying a BRCA mutation was estimated for each woman. Results A total of 2,080 women were enrolled onto the study. The overall mutation prevalence was 1.1% (0.5% for BRCA1 and 0.6% for BRCA2). Among the 22 mutation carriers, the mean estimate of carrying a BRCA mutation was 3.9%. Ten (45%) of the 22 women met the current Ontario Ministry of Health Guidelines criteria for testing.

CONCLUSION

There is considerable interest for genetic testing among Jewish women at low risk of carrying a mutation. However, many women with mutations are ineligible for genetic testing under current guidelines. Approximately 1% of Jewish women carry a BRCA mutation, and these women should be considered to be candidates for genetic testing.

Hereditary breast cancer: from bench to bedside

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The proportion of breast cancers directly attributable to determinant hereditary factors is estimated to be 5-10%. A number of recent findings with regard to hereditary breast cancer should affect the criteria and scope of routine genetic testing and, soon, breast cancer therapy.

RECENT FINDINGS

The number of genes causing genetic cancer has expanded, mostly with genes that encode proteins that function in the BRCA1/2 pathways. The risk level associated with some genes is still under investigation, but is high for specific mutations. Some mutant alleles occur frequently, some are rare. High-throughput technologies will progressively allow investigating all genes involved in genetic (breast) cancer risks in all individuals for whom this information could be relevant. This and the emerging novel treatment options specific for cancers in mutation carriers will oblige us to progressively drop all currently used selection criteria such as familial phenotype for genomic testing. A major challenge remains the effective penetration of this knowledge in the professional and lay community, the broad application and financing of this high-throughput technology, and the identification of as yet unknown breast cancer predisposition genes.

SUMMARY

The assessment of breast cancer predisposition genes, previously only an optional predictive genetic test, is growing in importance as it also becomes a therapeutic predictive test.

Performance of prediction models for BRCA mutation carriage in three racial/ethnic groups: findings from the Northern California Breast Cancer Family Registry

PURPOSE

Patients with early-onset breast and/or ovarian cancer frequently wish to know if they inherited a mutation in one of the cancer susceptibility genes, BRCA1 or BRCA2. Accurate carrier prediction models are needed to target costly testing. Two widely used models, BRCAPRO and BOADICEA, were developed using data from non-Hispanic Whites (NHW), but their accuracies have not been evaluated in other racial/ethnic populations.

METHODS

We evaluated the BRCAPRO and BOADICEA models in a population-based series of African American, Hispanic, and NHW breast cancer patients tested for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations. We assessed model calibration by evaluating observed versus predicted mutations and attribute diagrams, and model discrimination using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

Both models were well-calibrated within each racial/ethnic group, with some exceptions. BOADICEA overpredicted mutations in African Americans and older NHWs, and BRCAPRO underpredicted in Hispanics. In all racial/ethnic groups, the models overpredicted in cases whose personal and family histories indicated >80% probability of carriage. The two models showed similar discrimination in each racial/ethnic group, discriminating least well in Hispanics. For example, BRCAPRO's areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 83% (95% confidence interval, 63-93%) for NHWs, compared with 74% (59-85%) for African Americans and 58% (45-70%) for Hispanics.

CONCLUSIONS

The poor performance of the model for Hispanics may be due to model misspecification in this racial/ethnic group. However, it may also reflect racial/ethnic differences in the distributions of personal and family histories among breast cancer cases in the Northern California population.

Performance of BRCA1/2 mutation prediction models in Asian Americans

PURPOSE

There are established differences in breast cancer epidemiology between Asian and white individuals, but little is known about hereditary breast cancer in Asian populations. Although increasing numbers of Asian individuals are clinically tested for BRCA1/2 mutations, it is not known whether computer models that predict mutations work accurately in Asian individuals. We compared the performance in Asian and white individuals of two widely used BRCA1/2 mutation prediction models, BRCAPRO and Myriad II.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We evaluated BRCAPRO and Myriad II in 200 Asian individuals and a matched control group of 200 white individuals who were tested for BRCA1/2 mutations at four cancer genetics clinics, by comparing numbers of observed versus predicted mutation carriers and by evaluating area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for each model.

RESULTS

BRCAPRO and Myriad II accurately predicted the number of white BRCA1/2 mutation carriers (25 observed v 24 predicted by BRCAPRO; 25 predicted by Myriad II, P > or = .69), but underpredicted Asian carriers by two-fold (49 observed v 25 predicted by BRCAPRO; 26 predicted by Myriad II; P < or = 3 x 10(-7)). For BRCAPRO, this racial difference reflects substantial underprediction of Asian BRCA2 mutation carriers (26 observed v 4 predicted; P = 1 x 10(-30)); for Myriad II, separate mutation predictions were not available. For both models, AUCs were nonsignificantly lower in Asian than white individuals, suggesting less accurate discrimination between Asian carriers and noncarriers.

CONCLUSION

Both BRCAPRO and Myriad II underestimated the proportion of BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, and discriminated carriers from noncarriers less well, in Asian compared with white individuals.