Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma

Conditional survival in patients with stage IB-IIIA melanoma undergoing sentinel node biopsy in Queensland: A longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Tumour characteristics such as thickness and ulceration, along with sentinel lymph node (SLN) status, have been essential in predicting survival in patients with locally invasive melanomas at the time of diagnosis. It is unclear if these prognostic factors are relevant 1, 2 or 5 years after diagnosis.

OBJECTIVES

The key aim of this project was to analyse conditional survival in a cohort of Queensland patients with stage IB to IIIA melanomas (American Joint Committee on Cancer's staging system, 8th version) and to test the relevance of clinicopathological prognostic factors for melanoma outcome after varying intervals of survival time.

METHODS

Patients with primary invasive cutaneous melanoma who were referred to a tertiary melanoma clinic and underwent SLN biopsy between 1994 and 2011 were ascertained. The effect of patient and tumour characteristics on melanoma survival were calculated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models at diagnosis and at variable times after diagnosis.

RESULTS

The final analysis included 651 patients (average age 49 years, 55.5% male) with stage IB to IIIA melanoma. At diagnosis, and after 1 and 2 years survived, SLN positivity, thickness and ulceration were predictive of 10-year survival since diagnosis. However, once patients survived 5 years, only SLN status was predictive. Overall conditional melanoma survival improved with increasing time survived. Five years after diagnosis, 10-year conditional melanoma survival (MSS) was 91% (95% CI 86%-95%) compared with 85% (82%-88%) predicted at diagnosis. The improvement in MSS was observed mainly for Stage II melanoma patients and not for those with a positive SLN biopsy.

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirms the improvement of prognosis according to time survived since diagnosis suggesting that after 5 years survival the classic prognostic indicators may not have the same influence.

Construction, validation and, visualization of a web-based nomogram to identify the best candidates for primary tumor resection in advanced cutaneous melanoma patients

Background

Existing studies have shown whether primary site resection (PSR) in cutaneous melanoma (CM) patients with stage IV is controversial. Our study aimed to identify the clinical characteristics of CM patients with stage IV who benefited from PSR on a population-based study.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed stage IV CM patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2015. Patients were divided into surgical and non-surgical groups according to whether PSR was performed or not. According to the median cancer-specific survival (CSS) time of the non-surgery group, the surgical group was divided into the surgery-benefit group and the non-surgery-benefit group. Multivariate cox regression analysis was used to explore independent CSS prognostic factors in the surgical group. Then, based on the independent prognostic factors of the surgical group, we established a web-based nomogram based on logistics regression.

Results

A total of 574 stage IV CM patients were included in our study, and 491 (85.60%) patients were included in the surgical group. The clinical characteristics (benefit group and non-benefit group) included age, M stage, lesion location, and ulceration status. These independent prognostic factors were includeed to construct a web-based nomogram.

Conclusions

We constructed a web-based nomogram. This model was suitable for identifying the best candidates suitable for PSR in stage IV CM patients.

Immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) genes and aging in malignant melanoma patients: a clinicogenomic TCGA study

Background

Cancer diagnoses and deaths among the elderly (65 +) are expected to increase significantly over the next decade. Immune checkpoint inhibitors specifically target ICI genes and enhance immune system function. However, poor outcomes may be associated with aging.

Methods

We downloaded the Genomic Data Commons from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and collected gene expression data from malignant melanoma (MM) tissues, the third level as the primary site. The CKTTD ICI genes database were applied and validated using the GEO database and lab experiments.

Results

In 414 patients, 13 ICI genes were obtained as risk gene signature by univariate and multivariate Cox hazard models and were associated with poor survival in the older group. At 1, 3, and 5 years (79%, 76%, and 76%, respectively), we investigate TNFRFS4 gene and age prediction using novel nomogram-associated aging (HR = 1.79, P 0.001, CI = 1.32–2.45) with higher sensitivity testing.TNFRSF4 gene expression was significantly high in younger (15 years interval) MM patients (P < 0.001). By correlation analysis, a significant negative association was determined (P < 0.001). The validation of gene correlation from GEO (GSE59455) and (GSE22153) was obtained as external validation. We tested the TNFRSF4 protein levels by IHC in 14 melanoma tissue samples. TNFRSF4 expression was observed to be lower expressed in the older of melanoma tissues, and higher in the younger age group (P = 0.02). Besides the connectivity of ICI gene proteins, the biological processes of cell aging, aging, and the immune system were found to be highly related.

Conclusions

Along with the risk score evaluation, the ICI gene (TNFRSF4) was identified as a tumor suppressor gene related to inequalities in age survival and associated with immune cell infiltrations. The aging responses of melanoma patients and related gene expression need further investigation in order to identify potential therapeutic targets.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-09860-2.

Conditional survival estimates for merkel cell carcinoma reveal the dynamic nature of prognostication

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Conditional survival (CS) analysis has emerged as a dynamic prognostication methodology. The goal of this study was to determine disease-specific CS rates in Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC).

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients with MCC from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry (1988-2016). Stage-specific 5-year MCC-specific CS rates for study and survivor cohorts were estimated, and the significance of clinicopathologic factors to predict 1-year MCC-specific death was evaluated using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

Within stage, 5-year CS survival rates improved with increasing survivorship. Pathologic Stage I patients had the highest 5-year CS rate at diagnosis (89.1%) but the smallest increase over time (96% among 5-year survivors). Stage IV patients experienced the greatest change in 5-year CS rates from 25.4% (at diagnosis) to 88% (5-year survivors). At diagnosis stage, age, sex, and primary site were all significantly associated with 1-year MCC-related death in the multivariate analysis. In contrast, among 5-year survivors only sex and age at diagnosis were significant predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

MCC CS rates improved across all disease stages over time. Additionally, the relationships of prognostic factors with 1-year MCC-death changed with increasing survivorship. This perspective can provide a foundation for informed decision-making.

Conditional recurrence-free survival in patients with primary stage I-II cutaneous malignant melanoma - a population-based study

Conditional survival in patients with localized primary cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is well described. However, conditional recurrence-free survival (RFS) has not been investigated before. The aim of this study was to determine conditional RFS and test for time dependency in prognostic factors in patients with localized stage I-II CMM. This study included 1437 CMM patients registered in one region of Sweden during 1999-2012 followed up through 31 December 2012. To identify first recurrence of CMM disease, data from a care data warehouse, the pathology and radiology department registries were used. Patients were also followed through a Census Register and the National Cause of Death Register. The time-dependent risk of recurrence was analysed in a Cox's proportional hazard regression. The 5-year conditional RFS increased from 86% (95% confidence interval: 84-88) at diagnosis to 96% (95% confidence interval: 94-98) at 5 years after diagnosis. Women showed a 60% lower risk of recurrence than men and this effect was stable over time (P=0.39). Patients aged greater than or equal to 65 years had a 40% higher risk of recurrence than patients aged less than 65 years, and this effect was stable over time (P=0.65). Patients with tumour ulceration showed a 70% higher risk of recurrence than nonulcerated patients, but this effect disappeared after 2 years (P=0.04). For patients with T3-T4 CMM, the hazard ratios decreased over time and were similar to hazard ratio of patients with T2 CMM after 2 years and later. The decreasing impact of tumour thickness and ulceration over time could have important implications for CMM patients in terms of counselling and follow-up.

Conditional Survival: An Assessment of the Prognosis of Patients at Time Points After Initial Diagnosis and Treatment of Locoregional Melanoma Metastasis

Purpose Standard cancer staging and prognostic estimates are determined at the time of the patient's initial disease presentation. Conditional survival is an alternative, dynamic assessment from follow-up time points after the initial disease diagnosis and is based on the condition of survivorship. Estimates of conditional survival can provide critical prognostic information for patients and clinicians, guide subsequent cancer follow-up schedules, and influence decisions regarding treatments. The current study presents conditional survival estimates developed from a cohort of 4,540 patients diagnosed with stage III melanoma treated at a single institution. Methods Patients with stage III disease at first melanoma diagnosis (initial; n = 2,042), or who developed locoregional metastasis as a first recurrence some time after primary diagnosis (recurrent; n = 2,498), were assessed. Conditional melanoma-specific survival (MSS) estimates up to 5 years after diagnosis were adjusted for age, sex, and 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage. Results Older age at diagnosis of stage III disease conveyed a worse prognosis at each conditional survival time point. Males had significantly worse MSS outcomes for up to 2 years of conditional survival, after which males and females had similar MSS. For patients with AJCC stage IIIB and stage IIIC disease, MSS outcomes were similar to those of patients with stage IIIA disease after 3 and 5 years of survivorship, respectively. Conclusion Adjuvant systemic treatments may have the greatest benefit when administered within the first 2 years of stage III melanoma diagnosis, during which period prognosis is significantly worse for male patients of increasing age and AJCC substage. Conditional survival estimates illustrate improved survival prospects for patients with cancer returning for follow-up and may define a finite period of increased risk after diagnosis.

Competing risks survival of older patients with metastatic cutaneous melanoma: a SEER population-based study

Mortality from metastatic cutaneous melanoma is substantially heterogeneous as reflected in three distant metastatic (M1) subtypes with metastasis to skin, subcutaneous tissue, or distant lymph nodes (M1a), conferring nearly half the risk of death compared with distant visceral metastasis (M1c). It remains unknown whether older patients experience the survival benefit from the M1a subtype given a higher overall mortality risk. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result data were retrieved from 1878 metastatic melanoma patients, from 2005 to 2009, with follow-up through 2011. Hazard ratios (HRs) for 2-year overall survival were estimated for M1 subtypes among older (≥65) and younger (<65) patients. Proportional subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) were calculated for melanoma-specific and competing risk mortality. For both older and younger patients, worse overall survival was observed for the M1c compared to the M1a subtype [HR: 2.65, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.02-3.49; and, SHR: 3.36, 95% CI: 2.56-4.41; respectively]. For competing mortality, older compared to younger patients had increased risk in the M1a and M1b subtypes (SHR: 6.07, 95% CI: 1.94-19.0, and SHR: 2.34, 95% CI: 1.08-5.05, respectively). Conversely, when examining melanoma-specific mortality, older patients had decreased risk in M1a and M1b subtypes (SHR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.14-0.53, and SHR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.38-0.94, respectively) compared to those under 65 years. The persistent prognostic advantage of M1a among older patients should be considered when calculating the risk-benefit ratio for treatment. Prior reports of a protective effect of older age on melanoma-specific mortality, when based on traditional competing risks analyses, might be explained as an artifact of increased competing mortality risk.