Prognostic Nomogram for Hepatitis B Virus-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma With Adjuvant Transarterial Chemoembolization After Radical Resection

Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Hepatitis B Virus-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Receiving Postoperative Adjuvant Transarterial Chemoembolization

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who are at significant risk of tumor recurrence and mortality can benefit from postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE). However, the benefits of PA-TACE remain unclear. Herein, we aimed to develop a model for predicting the prognosis of HBV-related patients who undergo PA-TACE and endeavored to guide individualized clinical treatment.

Methods

We included 432 HBV-related patients who underwent PA-TACE after curative resection were included. The dataset was divided into a training set (n=216) and an internal validation set (n=216). For identifying independent risk factors, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed. We derived a prognostic model from the training set that was internally validated. The concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and risk stratification were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram.

Results

Patients undergoing PA-TACE had significantly longer overall survival (OS) than those who did not undergo PA-TACE. Age, albumin levels, macrovascular invasion, tumor size, and, stages of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer were identified as independent risk variables and concluded into the nomogram to predict the OS of HBV-related patients who received PA-TACE. The nomogram's C-index values OS were 0.710 and 0.652 in the training and internal validation sets, respectively. Both time-dependent AUC and the calibration curve showed good discrimination and model fitness. The risk score -0.12 was kept as the cut-off value that would accurately divide patients into high-risk and low-risk groups; furthermore, the Kaplan-Meier curve showed a high discriminative ability of the model.

Conclusion

We developed a predictive model. comprising a formula and nomogram to predict the OS and provide risk stratification for HBV-related patients undergoing PA-TACE, which could contribute to suitable treatment options for this patient population.

Transarterial chemoembolization plus immune checkpoint inhibitor as postoperative adjuvant therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein tumor thrombus: A multicenter cohort study

PURPOSE

This study aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) plus immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study was conducted on three centers from June 2018 to December 2020. Patients were divided into the PA-TACE (n = 48) and PA-TACE plus ICI groups (n = 42). The recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) curves were depicted by Kaplan-Meier method, and the differences between the two groups were compared using log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for RFS and OS. Adverse events (AEs) were assessed according to the Common Terminology Criteria for AEs (CTCAE) version 5.0.

RESULTS

The median RFS of the PA-TACE plus ICI group was significantly longer than the PA-TACE group (12.76 months vs. 8.11 months; P = 0.038). The median OS of the PA-TACE plus ICI group was also significanfly better than the PA-TACE group (24.5 months vs. 19.1 months; P = 0.032). PA-TACE plus ICI treatment was an independent prognostic factor for RFS (HR: 0.54, 95% CI: 0.32-0.9, P = 0.019) and OS (HR: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.26-0.86, P = 0.014). Only one patient experienced grade ≥3 immune-related AEs in the PA-TACE plus ICI group.

CONCLUSIONS

PA-TACE plus ICI treatment had better efficacy in preventing recurrence and prolonging survival than PA-TACE alone for HCC patients with PVTT after R0 resection. This novel treatment modality may be an appropriate option for HCC with PVTT.

A simplified model for prophylactic transarterial chemoembolization after resection for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Prophylactic transarterial chemoembolization (p-TACE) is frequently conducted for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China, but the question of who could benefit from it remains controversial. Hence, we wanted to establish a nomogram model to identify patients eligible for p-TACE.

METHODS

Data from HCC patients receiving R0 resection with or without p-TACE between January 2013 and December 2014 were identified, using primary liver cancer big data, to establish a nomogram model to predict overall survival (OS). Based on the model, Patients receiving R0 resection between January 2015 and December 2015 were divided into three subgroups, and survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method and analyzed by the log-rank test among patients in each subgroup.

RESULTS

A nomogram integrating the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, AFP, tumor diameter, and microvascular invasion was developed to predict the OS of patients with HCC receiving R0 resection, and significant differences were observed in the median OS of the subgroups of low-risk (≤20), intermediate-risk (20~120), and high-risk (>120) identified by the current model. This model showed good calibration and discriminatory power in the validation cohort and the external cohort (c-index of 0.669 and 0.676, respectively). In the external cohort, the Kaplan-Meier curves showed that p-TACE could only significantly prolong the median OS of high-risk patients (25.6 vs. 33.7 months, P<0.05), but no differences were observed in any subgroups stratified by the current staging systems (all P>0.05).

CONCLUSION

This readily available nomogram model could help guide decisions about p-TACE, but it needs further validation.

Advances in postoperative adjuvant therapy for primary liver cancer

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a highly heterogeneous, invasive, and conventional chemotherapy-insensitive tumor with unique biological characteristics. The main methods for the radical treatment of HCC are surgical resection or liver transplantation. However, recurrence rates are as high as 50% and 70% at 3 and 5 years after liver resection, respectively, and even in Milan-eligible recipients, the recurrence rate is approximately 20% at 5 years after liver transplantation. Therefore, reducing the postoperative recurrence rate is key to improving the overall outcome of liver cancer. This review discusses the risk factors for recurrence in patients with HCC radical surgical resection and adjuvant treatment options that may reduce the risk of recurrence and improve overall survival, including local adjuvant therapy (e.g., transcatheter arterial chemoembolization), adjuvant systemic therapy (e.g., molecular targeted agents and immunotherapy), and other adjuvant therapies (e.g., antiviral and herbal therapy). Finally, potential research directions that may change the paradigm of adjuvant therapy for HCC are analyzed.

Adjuvant Transarterial Chemoembolization Following Curative-Intent Hepatectomy Versus Hepatectomy Alone for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

The role of adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing hepatectomy is currently unclear. We performed a systematic review of the literature using the MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases. Random-effects meta-analysis was carried out to compare the overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) of patients with resectable HCC undergoing hepatectomy followed by adjuvant TACE vs. hepatectomy alone in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The risk of bias was assessed using the Risk of Bias 2.0 tool. Meta-regression analyses were performed to explore the effect of hepatitis B viral status, microvascular invasion, type of resection (anatomic vs. parenchymal-sparing), and tumor size on the outcomes. Ten eligible RCTs, reporting on 1216 patients in total, were identified. The combination of hepatectomy and adjuvant TACE was associated with superior OS (hazard ratio (HR): 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52 to 0.85; p < 0.001) and RFS (HR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.56 to 0.88; p < 0.001) compared to hepatectomy alone. There were significant concerns regarding the risk of bias in most of the included studies. Overall, adjuvant TACE may be associated with an oncologic benefit in select HCC patients. However, the applicability of these findings may be limited to Eastern Asian populations, due to the geographically restricted sample. High-quality multinational RCTs, as well as predictive tools to optimize patient selection, are necessary before adjuvant TACE can be routinely implemented into standard practice. PROSPERO Registration ID: CRD42021245758.

The Clinical Value of Postoperative Transarterial Chemoembolization for Resectable Patients with Intermediate Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Radical Hepatectomy: a Propensity Score-Matching Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Surgical resection for patients with intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is preferred in China, but the prognosis remains far from satisfactory. Postoperative transarterial chemoembolization (p-TACE) has been conducted prevalently to prevent recurrence, but its efficacy remains controversial. Hence, we collected the data from primary liver cancer big data (PLCBD) to investigate the clinical value of p-TACE for patients with intermediate HCC and identify the potential beneficiaries.

METHODS

Patients who were diagnosed with intermediate HCC between December 2012 and December 2015 were identified through the PLCBD. Disease-free survival (DFS) of patients who received p-TACE or not following radical resection was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves before and after 1:1 propensity scoring match (PSM). Subgroup analysis was conducted stratified by risk factors associated with recurrence.

RESULTS

A total of 325 intermediate HCC patients receiving radical resection were eligible in this study, including 123 patients in the p-TACE group and 202 in the non-TACE group. Median DFS in the p-TACE group was significantly longer than in the non-TACE group (23.3 months vs. 18.0 months, P = 0.016) in the whole cohort with no severe complicates, which was confirmed in a well-matched cohort (17.4 months vs. 23.3 months, P = 0.012). In addition, p-TACE was identified as an independent risk factors of DFS by multivariate Cox regression analysis before and after PSM (both P < 0.05). After adjusting for other prognostic variables, patients were found to significantly benefit from p-TACE in DFS if they were male, or had hepatitis, diabetes, cirrhosis, AFP ≤ 400 ng/ml, anatomic hepatectomy, no severe surgical complication, no intraoperative transfusion, tumor number = 2, differentiation grading III, capsule, or had no transfusion (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

With the current data, we concluded that p-TACE was safe and efficient for the patients with intermediate HCC following radical resection, and male patients with hepatitis, diabetes, cirrhosis, AFP ≤ 400 ng/ml, anatomic hepatectomy, no severe surgical complication, no intraoperative transfusion, tumor number = 2, differentiation grading III, and capsule would benefit more from p-TACE.

AGLR is a novel index for the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a retrospective study

Background

Most hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients’ liver function indexes are abnormal. We aimed to investigate the relationship between (alkaline phosphatase + gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase)/lymphocyte ratio (AGLR) and the progression as well as the prognosis of HCC.

Methods

A total of 495 HCC patients undergoing radical hepatectomy were retrospectively analyzed. We randomly divided these patients into the training cohort (n = 248) and the validation cohort (n = 247). In the training cohort, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the optimal cut-off value of AGLR for predicting postoperative survival of HCC patients, and the predictive value of AGLR was evaluated by concordance index (C-index). Further analysis of clinical and biochemical data of patients and the correlation analysis between AGLR and other clinicopathological factors were finished. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors for HCC patients. Survival curves were analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method.

Results

According to the ROC curve analysis, the optimal predictive cut-off value of AGLR was 90. The C-index of AGLR was 0.637 in the training cohort and 0.654 in the validation cohort, respectively. Based on this value, the HCC patients were divided into the low-AGLR group (AGLR ≤ 90) and the high-AGLR group (AGLR > 90). Preoperative AGLR level was positively correlated with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), tumor size, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, and microvascular invasion (MVI) (all p < 0.05). In the training and validation cohorts, patients with AGLR > 90 had significantly shorter OS than patients with AGLR ≤ 90 (p < 0.001). Univariate and multivariate analyses of the training cohort (HR, 1.79; 95% CI 1.21–2.69; p < 0.001) and validation cohort (HR, 1.82; 95% CI 1.35–2.57; p < 0.001) had identified AGLR as an independent prognostic factor. A new prognostic scoring model was established based on the independent predictors determined in multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

The elevated preoperative AGLR level indicated poor prognosis for patients with HCC; the novel prognostic scoring model had favorable predictive capability for postoperative prognosis of HCC patients, which may bring convenience for clinical management.

Effect of menopausal status on the survival and recurrence of sex-classified hepatocellular carcinoma after liver resection: a case-matched study with propensity score matching

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact of menopausal status on the prognosis for sex-classified Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to establish prognostic nomograms for patients after liver resection.

RESULTS

After propensity score matching (PSM), statistically significant differences in both overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were found between men and women HCC patients. Based on Cox regression analysis, these differences were evident in the normal menstruation (N) group expanded with male patients, but not in either the expanded postmenopausal (P) or intermediate (I) groups. Sex disparity was also apparent in the recurrence-free survival (RFS) of the total HCC patients. Integrated with independent factors, nomograms for the OS and RFS of the expanded N group showed higher C-indices of 0.773 and 0.724, respectively, than those of nomograms for the total patients and BCLC stage (P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Sex disparity appears to affect both the survival and recurrence of HCC only in normal menstruation women and their matched men. For predicting survival, prognostic nomograms derived from the expanded N group of HCC patients were more accurate for patients with the same clinical conditions.

METHODS

The patients (390 females and 1920 males), who underwent curative liver resection for HCC during 2008 to 2012, were screened. The 390 women were divided into three groups: normal menstruation, intermediate, and postmenopausal. To overcome selection bias, the three groups of females were matched with males at a ratio of 1:2, using propensity score matching. Based on further Cox regression analysis, independent factors were integrated into nomograms for OS and RFS by R rms. The accuracy and discrimination of the nomograms were evaluated by the C-index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

Postoperative adjuvant TACE-associated nomogram for predicting the prognosis of resectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma with portal vein Tumor Thrombus after Liver Resection

Background: To explore the effects of postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) on the prognosis of HCC patients with Portal Vein Tumor Thrombus (PVTT) undergoing resection, and to develop a PA-TACE-related nomogram for predicting survival individually. Patients and Methods: Two hundred and ninety-three consecutive HCC patients with PVTT under R0 hepatectomy were recruited. Forty-seven cases had recurrence within one month after surgery. The remaining 246 cases consisted of 90 PA-TACE and 156 non-PA-TACE cases. COX regression analysis was performed for overall survival (OS) or recurrence-free survival (RFS) of these 246 cases, allowing the derivation of independent factors that were integrated into the nomogram. C-index, calibration curves, and risk stratification were performed to evaluate the performance and discriminative power of the nomograms. Results: In 246 patients without recurrence within one month after surgery, the OS and RFS for the PA-TACE group were significantly better than those for the non-PA-TACE group (P<0.0001, P<0.0001, respectively). After Cox regression analysis of OS or RFS, PA-TACE-related nomogram models were constructed. The C-index of the PA-TACE-related nomogram for OS and RFS was 0.72 and 0.73, respectively. Calibration curves revealed a good agreement between predictions and observations for the nomograms. Based on the nomogram-related risk stratification, Kaplan-Meier curves showed powerful discriminative ability. Conclusions: PA-TACE therapy improved the survival of HCC patients with PVTT undergoing hepatectomy. Accurate nomogram models were developed for predicting the individual survival and recurrence of these patients.