Earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy in treatment-na??ve patients: implications of results of treatment interruption trials:

The 'Antiretrovirals, Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitudes' (ASTRA) study. Design, methods and participant characteristics

Life expectancy for people diagnosed with HIV has improved dramatically however the number of new infections in the UK remains high. Understanding patterns of sexual behaviour among people living with diagnosed HIV, and the factors associated with having condom-less sex, is important for informing HIV prevention strategies and clinical care. In addition, in view of the current interest in a policy of early antiretroviral treatment (ART) for all people diagnosed with HIV in the UK, it is of particular importance to assess whether ART use is associated with increased levels of condom-less sex. In this context the ASTRA study was designed to investigate current sexual activity, and attitudes to HIV transmission risk, in a large unselected sample of HIV-infected patients under care in the UK. The study also gathered background information on demographic, socio-economic, lifestyle and disease-related characteristics, and physical and psychological symptoms, in order to identify other key factors impacting on HIV patients and the behaviours which underpin transmission. In this paper we describe the study rationale, design, methods, response rate and the demographic characteristics of the participants. People diagnosed with HIV infection attending 8 UK HIV out-patient clinics in 2011-2012 were invited to participate in the study. Those who agreed to participate completed a confidential, self-administered pen-and-paper questionnaire, and their latest CD4 count and viral load test results were recorded. During the study period, 5112 eligible patients were invited to take part in the study and 3258 completed questionnaires were obtained, representing a response rate of 64% of eligible patients. The study includes 2248 men who have sex with men (MSM), 373 heterosexual men and 637 women. Future results from ASTRA will be a key resource for understanding HIV transmission within the UK, targeting prevention efforts, and informing clinical care of individuals living with HIV.

Considerations for Endpoint Selection When Designing HIV Clinical Trials

Selecting the primary endpoint is one of the most important decisions in designing clinical trials. Many HIV trials are powered for surrogate markers, often virologic suppression. Among 49 recently published Phase 3 or higher randomized HIV trials only 14% were powered for clinical outcomes such as the progression to AIDS, death, or serious non-AIDS diseases. We provide two examples where interventions modified the targeted surrogate markers but failed to provide clinical benefit. We review the use of surrogate and clinical endpoints, discuss the composition of clinical endpoints, and the need for endpoint verification. In HIV-infected individuals with CD4 cell counts above 200 cells/mm(3) serious non-AIDS conditions such as cardiovascular, renal, hepatic diseases and cancer contribute substantially to morbidity and mortality. In this population clinical endpoint trials should be powered for non-AIDS morbidity along with AIDS.

Death rates in HIV-positive antiretroviral-naive patients with CD4 count greater than 350 cells per microL in Europe and North America: a pooled cohort observational study

BACKGROUND

Whether people living with HIV who have not received antiretroviral therapy (ART) and have high CD4 cell counts have higher mortality than the general population is unknown. We aimed to examine this by analysis of pooled data from industrialised countries.

METHODS

We merged data on demographics, CD4 cell counts, viral-load measurements, hepatitis C co-infection status, smoking status, date of death, and whether death was AIDS-related or not from 23 European and North American cohorts. We calculated standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) standardised by age, sex, and year, stratifying by risk group. Data were included for patients aged 20-59 years who had at least one CD4 count greater than 350 cells per microL while ART naive. All pre-ART CD4 counts greater than 350 cells per microL from January, 1990, to December, 2004, were included. We investigated mortality for four risk groups--men who have sex with men, heterosexual people, injecting drug users, and those at other or unknown risk. The association between CD4 cell count and death rate was investigated by use of Poisson regression methods.

FINDINGS

Data were analysed for 40,830 patients contributing 80,682 person-years of follow-up. Of 419 deaths, 401 were used in the SMR analysis: 100 men who have sex with men (SMR 1.30, 95% CI 1.06-1.58); 68 heterosexual people (2.94, 2.28-3.73); 203 injecting drug users (9.37, 8.13-10.75); and 30 in the other or unknown risk category (4.57, 3.09-6.53). Compared with CD4 counts of 350-499 cells per microL, death rate was lower in patients with counts of 500-699 cells per microL (adjusted rate ratio 0.77, 95% CI 0.61-0.95) and counts of 700 cells per microL (0.66, 0.52-0.85).

INTERPRETATION

In HIV-infected ART-naive patients with high CD4 cell counts, death rates were raised compared with the general population. In men who have sex with men this was modest, suggesting that a substantial proportion of the increased risk in other groups is due to confounding by other factors. Even though the increased risk is small, new studies of potential benefits of ART in this group are merited.

FUNDING

European Commission, FP6. European AIDS Treatment Network (NEAT). Project number LSHP-CT-2006-037570.

Factors associated with specific causes of death amongst HIV-positive individuals in the D:A:D Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate any emerging trends in causes of death amongst HIV-positive individuals in the current cART era, and to investigate the factors associated with each specific cause of death.

DESIGN

An observational multicentre cohort study.

METHODS

All HIV-positive individuals included in one of the cohorts in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV drugs (D:A:D) Study were included. The association between HIV-specific and non HIV-specific risk factors and death were studied using multivariable Poisson regression.

RESULTS

We observed 2482 deaths in 180,176 person-years (PY) on 33,308 individuals [rate/1000 PY = 13.8 (95% CI 13.2-14.3)]. Primary causes of death were: AIDS (n = 743; rate/1000 PY = 4.12), liver-related (341; 1.89), CVD-related (289; 1.60), non-AIDS malignancy (286; 1.59). The overall rate of death fell from 16.9 in 1999/2000 to 9.6/ 1000 PY in 2007/2008. Smoking was associated with CVD and non-AIDS cancers, HBV and HCV co-infection with liver-related deaths, and hypertension with liver-related and CVD deaths. Diabetes was a risk factor for all specific causes of death except non-AIDS cancers, and higher current HIV RNA for AIDS-related deaths. Lower CD4 cell counts were associated with a higher risk of death from all specific causes of death.

CONCLUSION

Multiple potentially modifiable traditional and HIV-specific risk factors for death of HIV-infected persons were identified. The maximum reduction in mortality in HIV-infected populations will require that each of these factors be appropriately addressed. No trends in terms of emerging causes of unexpected deaths were observed, although monitoring will continue.

Risk of all-cause mortality associated with nonfatal AIDS and serious non-AIDS events among adults infected with HIV

OBJECTIVES

Among patients with HIV, the risk of death associated with different AIDS events has been quantified, but the risk of death associated with non-AIDS events has not been examined. We compared the risk of all-cause mortality following AIDS versus serious non-AIDS (SNA) events in the Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy (SMART) study and the Evaluation of Subcutaneous Proleukin in a Randomized International Trial (ESPRIT).

DESIGN

Data from 9583 HIV-infected participants, 5472 with a CD4 cell count more than 350 cells/microl enrolled in SMART and 4111 with a CD4 cell count 300 cells/microl or more enrolled in ESPRIT, were analyzed.

METHODS

Cumulative mortality 6 months after AIDS and SNA events (cardiovascular, renal, hepatic disease, and malignancies) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios associated with AIDS and SNA events on the risk of death overall and by treatment group within study.

RESULTS

AIDS and SNA events occurred in 286 and 435 participants with 47 (16%) and 115 (26%) subsequent deaths, respectively. Six-month cumulative mortality was 4.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.8-8.0] after experiencing an AIDS event and 13.4% (95% CI 10.5-17.0) after experiencing an SNA event. The adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality for those who experienced AIDS versus those who did not was 4.9 (95% CI 3.6-6.8). The corresponding hazard ratio for SNA was 11.4 (95% CI 9.0-14.5) (P < 0.001 for difference in hazard ratios). Findings were similar for both treatment groups in SMART and both treatment groups in ESPRIT.

CONCLUSION

Among HIV-infected persons with higher CD4 cell counts, SNA events occur more frequently and are associated with a greater risk of death than AIDS events. Future research should be aimed at comparing strategies to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with SNA events for HIV-infected persons.

Early treatment of HIV: implications for resource-limited settings

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We review the current literature supporting adoption of higher CD4 thresholds for initiation of antiretroviral treatment and survey progress in adoption of early treatment policies in resource-limited settings. We highlight some of the challenges and opportunities implementation of early treatment will bring.

RECENT FINDINGS

The initial success of combination antiretroviral treatment resulted in the recommendation to treat early all individuals with HIV. However, the gradual realization that antiretroviral treatment was associated with toxicity led to a more tempered approach. Recent cohort studies and some clinical trials have shown that delaying treatment is associated with increased morbidity and mortality.

SUMMARY

Early treatment is routinely practiced in developed countries. Now, early treatment is being adopted as a strategy in many resource-limited settings. The implications of this policy shift are not known, but we predict early treatment will have important consequences for the health system, the individual, and the community. Whereas these consequences will bring significant challenges, the increased numbers of HIV-infected individuals on treatment will result in many new opportunities - antiretroviral treatment will become less expensive, systems to deliver chronic care will be strengthened, and the policy shift will focus greater attention on pregnant women and children. Finally, some authors postulate that early treatment may impact HIV transmission.