Towards Precision Dosing of Clozapine in Schizophrenia: External Evaluation of Population Pharmacokinetic Models and Bayesian Forecasting

Validation of Population Pharmacokinetic Models for Clozapine Dosage Prediction

BACKGROUND

Clozapine is unique in its capacity to ameliorate severe schizophrenia but at high risk of toxicity. A relationship between blood concentration and clinical response and evidence for concentration-response relationships to some adverse effects justify therapeutic drug monitoring of clozapine. However, the relationship between drug dose and blood concentration is quite variable. This variability is, in part, due to inductive and inhibitory interactions varying the activity of cytochrome P450 1A2 (CYP1A2), the principal pathway for clozapine elimination. Several population pharmacokinetic models have been presented to facilitate dose selection and to identify poor adherence in individual patients. These models have faced little testing for validity in independent populations or even for persisting validity in the source population.

METHODS

Therefore, we collected a large population of clozapine-treated patients (127 patients, 1048 timed plasma concentrations) in whom dosing and covariate information could be obtained with high certainty. A population pharmacokinetic model was constructed with data collected in the first 6 weeks from study enrolment (448 plasma concentrations), to estimate covariate influences and to allow alignment with previously published models. The model was tested for its performance in predicting the concentrations observed at later time intervals up to 5 years. The predictive performances of 6 published clozapine population models were then assessed in the entire population.

RESULTS

The population pharmacokinetic model based on the first 6 weeks identified significant influences of sex, smoking, and cotreatment with fluvoxamine on clozapine clearance. The model built from the first 6 weeks had acceptable predictive performance in the same patient population up to the first 26 weeks using individual parameters, with a median predictive error (PE) of -0.1% to -15.9% and median absolute PE of 22.9%-27.1%. Predictive performance fell progressively with time after 26 weeks. Bayesian addition of plasma concentration observations within each prediction period improved individual predictions. Three additional observations extended acceptable predictive performance into the second 6 months of therapy. When the published models were tested with the entire data set, median PE ranged from -8% to +35% with a median absolute PE of >39% in all models. Thus, none of the tested models was successful in external validation. Bayesian addition of single patient observations improved individual predictions from all models but still without achieving acceptable performances.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that the relationship between covariates and blood clozapine concentrations differs between populations and that relationships are not stable over time within a population. Current population models for clozapine are not capturing influential covariates.

Combining pharmacokinetic and electrophysiological models for early prediction of drug-induced arrhythmogenicity

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

In silico methods are gaining attention for predicting drug-induced Torsade de Pointes (TdP) in different stages of drug development. However, many computational models tended not to account for inter-individual response variability due to demographic covariates, such as sex, or physiologic covariates, such as renal function, which may be crucial when predicting TdP. This study aims to compare the effects of drugs in male and female populations with normal and impaired renal function using in silico methods.

METHODS

Pharmacokinetic models considering sex and renal function as covariates were implemented from data published in pharmacokinetic studies. Drug effects were simulated using an electrophysiologically calibrated population of cellular models of 300 males and 300 females. The population of models was built by modifying the endocardial action potential model published by O'Hara et al. (2011) according to the experimentally measured gene expression levels of 12 ion channels.

RESULTS

Fifteen pharmacokinetic models for CiPA drugs were implemented and validated in this study. Eight pharmacokinetic models included the effect of renal function and four the effect of sex. The mean difference in action potential duration (APD) between male and female populations was 24.9 ms (p<0.05). Our simulations indicated that women with impaired renal function were particularly susceptible to drug-induced arrhythmias, whereas healthy men were less prone to TdP. Differences between patient groups were more pronounced for high TdP-risk drugs. The proposed in silico tool also revealed that individuals with impaired renal function, electrophysiologically simulated with hyperkalemia (extracellular potassium concentration [K+]o = 7 mM) exhibited less pronounced APD prolongation than individuals with normal potassium levels. The pharmacokinetic/electrophysiological framework was used to determine the maximum safe dose of dofetilide in different patient groups. As a proof of concept, 3D simulations were also run for dofetilide obtaining QT prolongation in accordance with previously reported clinical values.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents a novel methodology that combines pharmacokinetic and electrophysiological models to incorporate the effects of sex and renal function into in silico drug simulations and highlights their impact on TdP-risk assessment. Furthermore, it may also help inform maximum dose regimens that ensure TdP-related safety in a specific sub-population of patients.

Individualized Patient Care Through Model-Informed Precision Dosing: Reflections on Training Future Practitioners

Prior to his passing, Dr. Roger Jelliffe, expressed the need for educating future physicians and clinical pharmacists on the availability of computer-based tools to support dose optimization in patients in stable or unstable physiological states. His perspectives were to be captured in a commentary for the AAPS J with a focus on incorporating population pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) models that are designed to hit the therapeutic target with maximal precision. Unfortunately, knowing that he would be unable to complete this project, Dr. Jelliffe requested that a manuscript conveying his concerns be completed upon his passing. With this in mind, this final installment of the AAPS J theme issue titled "Alternative Perspectives for Evaluating Drug Exposure Characteristics in a Population - Avoiding Analysis Pitfalls and Pigeonholes" is an effort to honor Dr. Jelliffe's request, conveying his concerns and the need to incorporate modeling and simulation into the training of physicians and clinical pharmacists. Accordingly, Dr. Jelliffe's perspectives have been integrated with those of the other three co-authors on the following topics: the clinical utility of population PK models; the role of multiple model (MM) dosage regimens to identify an optimal dose for an individual; tools for determining dosing regimens in renal dialysis patients (or undergoing other therapies that modulate renal clearance); methods to analyze and track drug PK in acutely ill patients presenting with high inter-occasion variability; implementation of a 2-cycle approach to minimize the duration between blood samples taken to estimate the changing PK in an acutely ill patient and for the generation of therapeutic decisions in advance for each dosing cycle based on an analysis of the previous cycle; and the importance of expressing therapeutic drug monitoring results as 1/variance rather than as the coefficient of variation. Examples showcase why, irrespective of the overall approach, the combination of therapeutic drug monitoring and computer-informed precision dosing is indispensable for maximizing the likelihood of achieving the target drug concentrations in the individual patient.