Contemporary predictors of coronary artery disease in patients referred for angiography

Predicting Coronary Artery Disease in Primary Care: Development and Validation of a Diagnostic Risk Score for Major Ethnic Groups in Southeast Asia

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD) risk prediction tools are useful decision supports. Their clinical impact has not been evaluated amongst Asians in primary care.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop and validate a diagnostic prediction model for CAD in Southeast Asians by comparing it against three existing tools.

DESIGN

We prospectively recruited patients presenting to primary care for chest pain between July 2013 and December 2016. CAD was diagnosed at tertiary institution and adjudicated. A logistic regression model was built, with validation by resampling. We validated the Duke Clinical Score (DCS), CAD Consortium Score (CCS), and Marburg Heart Score (MHS).

MAIN MEASURES

Discrimination and calibration quantify model performance, while net reclassification improvement and net benefit provide clinical insights.

KEY RESULTS

CAD prevalence was 9.5% (158 of 1658 patients). Our model included age, gender, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, smoking, chest pain type, neck radiation, Q waves, and ST-T changes. The C-statistic was 0.808 (95% CI 0.776-0.840) and 0.815 (95% CI 0.782-0.847), for model without and with ECG respectively. C-statistics for DCS, CCS-basic, CCS-clinical, and MHS were 0.795 (95% CI 0.759-0.831), 0.756 (95% CI 0.717-0.794), 0.787 (95% CI 0.752-0.823), and 0.661 (95% CI 0.621-0.701). Our model (with ECG) correctly reclassified 100% of patients when compared with DCS and CCS-clinical respectively. At 5% threshold probability, the net benefit for our model (with ECG) was 0.063. The net benefit for DCS, CCS-basic, and CCS-clinical was 0.056, 0.060, and 0.065.

CONCLUSIONS

PRECISE (Predictive Risk scorE for CAD In Southeast Asians with chEst pain) performs well and demonstrates utility as a clinical decision support for diagnosing CAD among Southeast Asians.

B-type natriuretic peptide trumps other prognostic markers in patients assessed for coronary disease

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction for patients with suspected coronary artery disease is complex due to the common occurrence of prior cardiovascular disease and extensive risk modification in primary care. Numerous markers have the potential to predict prognosis and guide management, but we currently lack robust 'real-world' evidence for their use.

METHODS

Prospective, multicentre observational study of consecutive patients referred for elective coronary angiography. Clinicians were blinded to all risk assessments, consisting of conventional factors, radial artery pulse wave analysis, 5-minute heart rate variability, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). Blinded, independent adjudication was performed for all-cause mortality and the composite of death, myocardial infarction or stroke, analysed with Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Five hundred twenty-two patients were assessed with median age 66 years and 21% prior revascularization. Median baseline left ventricular ejection fraction was 64%, and 62% had ≥ 50% stenosis on angiography. During 5.0 years median follow-up, 30% underwent percutaneous and 16% surgical revascularization. In multivariate analysis, only age and BNP were independently associated with outcomes. The adjusted hazard ratio per log unit increase in BNP was 2.15 for mortality (95% CI 1.45-3.19; p = 0.0001) and 1.27 for composite events (1.04-1.54; p = 0.018). Patients with baseline BNP > 100 pg/mL had substantially higher mortality and composite events (20.9% and 32.2%) than those with BNP ≤ 100 pg/mL (5.6% and 15.5%). BNP improved both classification and discrimination of outcomes (p ≤ 0.003), regardless of left ventricular systolic function. Conversely, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, pulse wave analysis and heart rate variability were unrelated to prognosis at 5 years after risk modification and treatment of coronary disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Conventional risk factors and other markers of arterial compliance, inflammation and autonomic function have limited value for prediction of outcomes in risk-modified patients assessed for coronary disease. BNP can independently identify patients with subtle impairment of cardiac function that might benefit from more intensive management.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00403351 Registered on 22 November 2006.

Elevated fasting blood glucose, but not obesity, is associated with coronary artery disease in patients undergoing elective coronary angiography in a referral hospital in Jordan

BACKGROUND

Obesity and its metabolic complications are endemic in the Middle East, but the cardiovascular consequences are not well defined in local studies.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between fasting blood glucose (FBG), obesity and coronary artery disease (CAD) in Jordan.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional, hospital-based study.

SETTING

A referral hospital in Amman, Jordan.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with complete anthropomorphic data who were referred for elective coronary angiography were included in the analysis. Associations between CAD, FBG and obesity were assessed in multivariate logistic regression models, adjusting for known risk factors.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The presence of CAD.

SAMPLE SIZE

434 subjects.

RESULTS

Only those who underwent coronary angiography and had complete anthropometric data were included in the study: 291 (67.1%) had CAD and 143 (32.9%) had a normal coronary angiogram.The mean body mass index, waist circumference and FBG of the study participants was 30.0 kg/m2, 106.0 cm and 8.8 mmol/L, respectively. The mean FBG was significantly higher in patients with CAD compared to those without CAD (9.5 vs. 7.3 mmol/L, P less than .001). Waist circumference was significantly higher in women with CAD compared to women without CAD (111.0 vs. 105.9 cm, P=.036), but no significant difference was observed in men. In a multivariate analysis, FBG was a strong and significant predictor of CAD; however, none of the measures of obesity were significantly associated with CAD. The findings were robust in a sensitivity analysis that excluded patients with known diabetes mellitus.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated FBG, but not obesity, predicted CAD in a Middle Eastern population. Improved prevention, detection and management of type 2 diabetes should be a priority in this setting.

LIMITATIONS

The cross-sectional design cannot control for temporal changes in risk factors and/or reverse causation.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

None.

Role of myocardial perfusion scintigraphy in predicting global cardiovascular risk and differentiating between patients with moderate and high cardiovascular risk

OBJECTIVE

The usefulness of stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification in patients at moderate and high CV risk remains controversial. We tested the hypothesis that different clinical risk profiles influence the test and the likelihood of obtaining a positive coronary angiography (CA) in the following 12 months.

METHODS

We assessed the prognostic value of MPS in 230 patients classified according to the European Society of Cardiology guidelines.

RESULTS

Patients at high and very-high CV risk had a higher prevalence of positive MPS (25.5 vs. 36.7%, P=0.014 and 9.8 vs. 19.5%, P=0.011, respectively), whereas patients at moderate risk had a higher prevalence of negative MPS (45.1 vs. 38.3, P=NS). Multivariate regression analysis showed that positive MPS was an independent predictor of 12-month positive CA only in patients at high CV risk [odds ratio (OR) 8.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.53-42.03, P=0.014] independent of age>60 and coexistence of obesity and previous percutaneous coronary intervention (OR 3.78, 95% CI 1.18-12.78, P=0.032; OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.03-3.26, P=0.039). The C-statistic showed a good discriminatory power of positive MPS in predicting 12-month positive CA (0.68, 95% CI 0.55-0.80, P=0.015). Mantel-Cox analysis showed that after 12 months of follow-up, in patients at high risk, there was a statistically significant difference in the distribution of patients with positive than those without negative CA (log rank P=0.04).

CONCLUSION

CV risk stratification on the basis of MPS is useful only in patients at high and very-high CV risk. In these groups, MPS can aid stratification for the risk of CV events.

B-type natriuretic peptide as an independent predictor of coronary disease extension in non-ST elevation coronary syndromes with preserved systolic function

Objective: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) has been employed as a risk marker in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) with ST elevation and non-ST elevation. It is not yet established if early BNP measurements provide additional information to troponin and electrocardiographic analysis in patients without ventricular enlargement and systolic dysfunction. Design: This study compared BNP levels in patients with stable angina (SA) and acute coronary syndromes with non-ST elevation in relation to angiographic lesions (NSTEMI-ACS). Moreover, the diagnostic utility of BNP was determined using the receiver operating characteristic curve. Patients: 280 patients with CAD without ST elevation and preserved systolic function were studied. BNP samples were measured in all recruited patients within 24 hours of hospitalization. Results: BNP values increased progressively with the severity of diagnosis: SA ( n = 85; 50.4 ± 50 pg/ml) NSTEMI-ACS ( n = 195; 283 ± 269 pg/ml; p < 0.0001). The analysis of BNP in relation to the number of involved vessels demonstrated significantly increased levels in patients with multivessel disease compared to patients with 1- or 2-vessel disease ( p < 0.001 and p < 0.003). Values of BNP >80 pg/ml were shown to be able to predict CAD severity and coronary vessel involvement (AUC = 0.80; p = 0.0001) with a sensitivity of 78% and a specificity of 72%. In multivariate analysis, BNP levels >80 pg/ml, CAD history, and ST deviation >2 mm were confirmed as independent predictors of CAD severity. Conclusions: Circulating BNP levels appear elevated in NSTEMI-ACS, without left ventricular systolic dysfunction. A BNP cut-off value of 80 pg/ml is a good predictor of CAD extension.

Health-related quality of life: The impact of diagnostic angiography

BACKGROUND

Little is known regarding the effects of index angiograms on health-related quality of life related to angiographic outcome, that is, positive or negative for coronary heart disease (CHD).

METHODS

A longitudinal, comparative design was used. Ninety-three patients underwent initial angiography and completed questionnaires (Cardiac-Quality of Life Index, Short Form-36 mental and physical, and Cardiac Attitudes Index) before, 1 week and 1 year after angiography. Data were evaluated with linear regression and analysis of variance.

RESULTS

Fifty-five patients were CHD positive (age 65.3 ± 10.7 years, 49% were female), and 38 patients were CHD negative (age 59.5 ± 12 years, 53% were female). Compared with CHD-positive patients over 1 year, CHD-negative patients reported lower scores on the Cardiac-Quality of Life Index (P < .008), Short Form-36 mental and physical measures (P = .004), and Cardiac Attitudes Index (P = .05).

CONCLUSION

CHD-negative patients experienced lower health-related quality of life and lower perceived control than CHD-positive patients. After an index angiogram, a negative finding may not be sufficient to relieve negative emotions.