Vaccine Protection of Bangladeshi infants and young children against cholera: implications for vaccine deployment and person-to-person transmission

Assessment of Vaccine Herd Protection: Lessons Learned From Cholera and Typhoid Vaccine Trials

Vaccine herd protection is the extension of the defense conferred by immunization beyond the vaccinated to unvaccinated persons in a population, as well as the enhancement of the protection among the vaccinated, due to vaccination of the surrounding population. Vaccine herd protection has traditionally been inferred from observations of disease trends after inclusion of a vaccine in national immunization schedules. Rather than awaiting outcomes of widescale vaccine deployment, earlier-stage evaluation of vaccine herd protection during trials or mass vaccination projects could help inform policy decisions about potential vaccine introduction. We describe the components, influencing factors, and implications of vaccine herd protection and discuss various methods for assessing herd protection, using examples from cholera and typhoid vaccine studies.

Licensed and Recommended Inactivated Oral CholeraVaccines: From Development to Innovative Deployment

Cholera is a disease of poverty and occurs where there is a lack of access to clean water and adequate sanitation. Since improved water supply and sanitation infrastructure cannot be implemented immediately in many high-risk areas, vaccination against cholera is an important additional tool for prevention and control. We describe the development of licensed and recommended inactivated oral cholera vaccines (OCVs), including the results of safety, efficacy and effectiveness studies and the creation of the global OCV stockpile. Over the years, the public health strategy for oral cholera vaccination has broadened-from purely pre-emptive use to reactive deployment to help control outbreaks. Limited supplies of OCV doses continues to be an important problem. We discuss various innovative dosing and delivery approaches that have been assessed and implemented and evidence of herd protection conferred by OCVs. We expect that the demand for OCVs will continue to increase in the coming years across many countries.

Global oral cholera vaccine use, 2013-2018

Vaccination is a key intervention to prevent and control cholera in conjunction with water, sanitation and hygiene activities. An oral cholera vaccine (OCV) stockpile was established by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2013. We reviewed its use from July 2013 to all of 2018 in order to assess its role in cholera control. We computed information related to OCV deployments and campaigns conducted including setting, target population, timelines, delivery strategy, reported adverse events, coverage achieved, and costs. In 2013-2018, a total of 83,509,941 OCV doses have been requested by 24 countries, of which 55,409,160 were approved and 36,066,010 eventually shipped in 83 deployments, resulting in 104 vaccination campaigns in 22 countries. OCVs had in general high uptake (mean administrative coverage 1st dose campaign at 90.3%; 2nd dose campaign at 88.2%; mean survey-estimated two-dose coverage at 69.9%, at least one dose at 84.6%) No serious adverse events were reported. Campaigns were organized quickly (five days median duration). In emergency settings, the longest delay was from the occurrence of the emergency to requesting OCV (median: 26 days). The mean cost of administering one dose of vaccine was 2.98 USD. The OCV stockpile is an important public health resource. OCVs were generally well accepted by the population and their use demonstrated to be safe and feasible in all settings. OCV was an inexpensive intervention, although timing was a limiting factor for emergency use. The dynamic created by the establishment of the OCV stockpile has played a role in the increased use of the vaccine by setting in motion a virtuous cycle by which better monitoring and evaluation leads to better campaign organization, better cholera control, and more requests being generated. Further work is needed to improve timeliness of response and contextualize strategies for OCV delivery in the various settings.

Assessing Vaccine Herd Protection by Killed Whole-Cell Oral Cholera Vaccines Using Different Study Designs

The population level effectiveness of a vaccine may arise as the result of direct protection of vaccinees and vaccine herd protection, which may protect non-vaccinees, vaccinees, or both. Indirect, total, enhanced, and overall vaccine protection are measures of vaccine herd protection. The level of population level effectiveness induced by a vaccine is driven by several factors, including known vaccine-induced protective efficacy, the magnitude, and distribution of vaccine coverage at a point in time and the extent to which different groups mix with one another in the community. Data on vaccine herd protection are valuable in understanding the importance and cost-effectiveness in deploying the e vaccine in public health program. Killed whole-cell (WC) oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) have been evaluated for herd protection in various study settings, leveraging geographic information system (GIS) tools for the analyses. This article provides a brief description of the herd protective effects of killed WC OCVs measured using various study deigns that include (a) individually randomized, controlled clinical trials, (b) cluster randomized clinical trials, (c) observational cohort studies, and (d) observational case-control studies. In all of the study designs, significant herd protection was observed in unvaccinated persons as well as in the community as a whole. The findings of these studies suggest that using killed WC OCV as a public health tool for controlling cholera is impactful and cost-effective.

Immunogenicity and Protection From a Single Dose of Internationally Available Killed Oral Cholera Vaccine: A Systematic Review and Metaanalysis

In addition to improved water supply and sanitation, the 2-dose killed oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is an important tool for the prevention and control of cholera. We aimed to document the immunogenicity and protection (efficacy and effectiveness) conferred by a single OCV dose against cholera. The metaanalysis showed that an estimated 73% and 77% of individuals seroconverted to the Ogawa and Inaba serotypes, respectively, after an OCV first dose. The estimates of single-dose vaccine protection from available studies are 87% at 2 months decreasing to 33% at 2 years. Current immunologic and clinical data suggest that protection conferred by a single dose of killed OCV may be sufficient to reduce short-term risk in outbreaks or other high-risk settings, which may be especially useful when vaccine supply is limited. However, until more data suggest otherwise, a second dose should be given as soon as circumstances allow to ensure robust protection.

Spillover effects on health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Background

Many interventions delivered to improve health may benefit not only direct recipients but also people in close physical or social proximity. Our objective was to review all published literature about the spillover effects of interventions on health outcomes in low-middle income countries and to identify methods used in estimating these effects.

Methods

We searched 19 electronic databases for articles published before 2014 and hand-searched titles from 2010 to 2013 in five relevant journals. We adapted the Cochrane Collaboration’s quality grading tool for spillover estimation and rated the quality of evidence.

Results

A total of 54 studies met inclusion criteria. We found a wide range of terminology used to describe spillovers, a lack of standardization among spillover methods and poor reporting of spillovers in many studies. We identified three primary mechanisms of spillovers: reduced disease transmission, social proximity and substitution of resources within households. We found the strongest evidence for spillovers through reduced disease transmission, particularly vaccines and mass drug administration. In general, the proportion of a population receiving an intervention was associated with improved health. Most studies were of moderate or low quality. We found evidence of publication bias for certain spillover estimates but not for total or direct effects. To facilitate improved reporting and standardization in future studies, we developed a reporting checklist adapted from the CONSORT framework specific to reporting spillover effects.

Conclusions

We found the strongest evidence for spillovers from vaccines and mass drug administration to control infectious disease. There was little high quality evidence of spillovers for other interventions.

Socioeconomic drivers of vaccine uptake: An analysis of the data of a geographically defined cluster randomized cholera vaccine trial in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Evaluations of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) have demonstrated their effectiveness in diverse settings. However, low vaccine uptake in some settings reduces the opportunity for prevention. This paper identifies the socioeconomic factors associated with vaccine uptake in a mass vaccination program.

METHODS

This was a three-arm (vaccine, vaccine plus behavioral change, and non-intervention) cluster randomized trial conducted in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Socio-demographic and vaccination data were collected from 268,896 participants. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to design and implement the vaccination program. A logistic regression model was used to assess the association between vaccine uptake and socioeconomic characteristics.

RESULTS

The GIS supported the implementation of the vaccination program by identifying ideal locations of vaccination centres for equitable population access, defining catchment areas of daily activities, and providing daily coverage maps during the campaign. Among 188,206 individuals in the intervention arms, 123,686 (66%) received two complete doses, and 64,520 (34%) received one or no doses of the OCV. The vaccine uptake rate was higher in females than males (aOR: 1.80; 95% CI = 1.75-1.84) and in younger (<15 years) than older participants (aOR: 2.19; 95% CI = 2.13-3.26). Individuals living in their own house or having a higher monthly family expenditure were more likely to receive the OCV (aOR: 1.60; 95% CI = 1.50-1.70 and aOR: 1.14; 95% CI = 1.10-1.18 respectively). Individuals using treated water for drinking or using own tap as the source of water were more likely to receive the OCV (aOR: 1.23; 95% CI = 1.17-1.29 and aOR: 1.14; 95% CI = 1.02-1.25 respectively) than their counterpart. Vaccine uptake was also significantly higher in participants residing farther away from health facilities (aOR: 95% 1.80; CI = 1.36-2.37).

CONCLUSION

The GIS was useful in designing field activities, facilitating vaccine delivery and identifying socioeconomic drivers of vaccine uptake in the urban area of Bangladesh. Addressing these socioeconomic drivers may help improve OCV uptake, thereby effectiveness of the OCV in a community.

When, how, and where can oral cholera vaccines be used to interrupt cholera outbreaks?

Cholera continues to be a major global health problem, at times causing major and prolonged outbreaks in both endemic and nonendemic settings in developing countries. While improved water quality, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) will provide the ultimate solution to prevention of this disease burden, this is a far-off goal for most developing countries. Oral cholera vaccines cholera vaccines (OCVs) have been demonstrated to be effective in the control of cholera outbreaks, and constitute useful tools to be used in conjunction with efforts to improve WASH. Two killed OCVs are prequalified by WHO for purchase by UN agencies for international use. Recently, WHO has launched a global stockpile stockpile of killed OCVs for use to control outbreaks. Rational deployment of OCV from this stockpile will require consideration of costs, feasibility, disease epidemiology epidemiology , and the protective characteristics of the vaccine deployed, as well as effective and rapid coordination of processes and logistics logistics used to make decisions on deployment and delivery of the vaccine to the population in need. Despite not having data on all the questions of relevance as to how to use OCVs to control cholera outbreaks in different settings, there is clearly more than enough evidence to initiate their use, as answers to remaining questions and refinement of policies will mainly come with experience.

Modeling cholera outbreaks

Mathematical modeling can be a valuable tool for studying infectious disease outbreak dynamics and simulating the effects of possible interventions. Here, we describe approaches to modeling cholera outbreaks and how models have been applied to explore intervention strategies, particularly in Haiti. Mathematical models can play an important role in formulating and evaluating complex cholera outbreak response options. Major challenges to cholera modeling are insufficient data for calibrating models and the need to tailor models for different outbreak scenarios.

Comparative population structure of Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein NANP repeat lengths in Lilongwe, Malawi

Humoral immunity to Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein is partly mediated by a polymorphic NANP tetra-amino acid repeat. Antibody response to these repeats is the best correlate of protective immunity to the RTS,S malaria vaccine, but few descriptions of the natural variation of these repeats exist. Using capillary electrophoresis to determine the distribution of NANP repeat size polymorphisms among 98 isolates from Lilongwe, Malawi, we characterised the diversity of P. falciparum infection by several ecological indices. Infection by multiple distinct variants was common, and 20 distinct repeat sizes were identified. Diversity of P. falciparum appeared greater in children (18 variants) than adults (12 variants). There was evidence of genetic distance between different geographic regions by Nei's Standard Genetic Distance, suggesting parasite populations vary locally. We show that P. falciparum is very diverse with respect to NANP repeat length even on a local level and that diversity appears higher in children.

New-generation vaccines against cholera

Cholera is a major global health problem, causing approximately 100,000 deaths annually, about half of which occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Although early-generation parenteral cholera vaccines were abandoned as public health tools owing to their limited efficacy, newer-generation oral cholera vaccines have attractive safety and protection profiles. Both killed and live oral vaccines have been licensed, although only killed oral vaccines are currently manufactured and available. These killed oral vaccines not only provide direct protection to vaccinated individuals, but also confer herd immunity. The combination of direct vaccine protection and vaccine herd immunity effects makes these vaccines highly cost-effective and, therefore, attractive for use in developing countries. Administration of these oral vaccines does not require qualified medical personnel, which makes their use practical--even in developing countries. Although new-generation oral cholera vaccines should not be considered in isolation from other preventive approaches, especially improved water quality and sanitation, they represent important tools in the public health armamentarium to control both endemic and epidemic cholera.

Product Development Partnerships: Case studies of a new mechanism for health technology innovation

There is a continuing need for new health technologies to address the disease burdens of developing countries. In the last decade Product Development Partnerships (PDP) have emerged that are making important contributions to the development of these technologies. PDPs are a form of public private partnerships that focus on health technology development. PDPs reflect the current phase in the history of health technology development: the Era of Partnerships, in which the public and private sectors have found productive ways to collaborate. Successful innovation depends on addressing six determinants of innovation. We examine four case studies of PDPs and show how they have addressed the six determinants to achieve success.

Oral vaccines for preventing cholera

EDITORIAL NOTE

This review is superseded by the published Cochrane Review, Saif‐Ur‐Rahman 2024 [https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD014573], which considers only the oral killed vaccines because the live oral vaccines do not have World Health Organization (WHO) prequalification. Saif‐Ur‐Rahman 2024 also considered only currently available WHO pre‐qualified oral killed cholera vaccines (Dukoral, Shanchol, and Euvichol/Euvichol‐Plus).

BACKGROUND

Cholera is a cause of acute watery diarrhoea which can cause dehydration and death if not adequately treated. It usually occurs in epidemics, and is associated with poverty and poor sanitation. Effective, cheap, and easy to administer vaccines could help prevent epidemics.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness and safety of oral cholera vaccines in preventing cases of cholera and deaths from cholera.

SEARCH STRATEGY

In October 2010, we searched the Cochrane Infectious Disease Group Specialized Register; Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); MEDLINE; EMBASE; LILACS; the metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT), and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) for relevant published and ongoing trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomized or quasi-randomized controlled trials of oral cholera vaccines in healthy adults and children.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Each trial was assessed for eligibility and risk of bias by two authors working independently. Data was extracted by two independent reviewers and analysed using the Review Manager 5 software. Outcomes are reported as vaccine protective efficacy (VE) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

MAIN RESULTS

Seven large efficacy trials, four small artificial challenge studies, and twenty-nine safety trials contributed data to this review.Five variations of a killed whole cell vaccine have been evaluated in large scale efficacy trials (four trials, 249935 participants). The overall vaccine efficacy during the first year was 52% (95% CI 35% to 65%), and during the second year was 62% (95% CI 51% to 62%). Protective efficacy was lower in children aged less than 5 years; 38% (95% CI 20% to 53%) compared to older children and adults; 66% (95% CI 57% to 73%).One trial of a killed whole cell vaccine amongst military recruits demonstrated 86% protective efficacy (95% CI 37% to 97%) in a small epidemic occurring within 4 weeks of the 2-dose schedule (one trial, 1426 participants). Efficacy data is not available beyond two years for the currently available vaccine formulations, but based on data from older trials is unlikely to last beyond three years.The safety data available on killed whole cell vaccines have not demonstrated any clinically significant increase in adverse events compared to placebo.Only one live attenuated vaccine has reached Phase III clinical evaluation and was not effective (one trial, 67508 participants). Two new candidate live attenuated vaccines have demonstrated clinical effectiveness in small artificial challenge studies, but are still in development.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The currently available oral killed whole cell vaccines can prevent 50 to 60% of cholera episodes during the first two years after the primary vaccination schedule. The impact and cost-effectiveness of adopting oral cholera vaccines into the routine vaccination schedule of endemic countries will depend on the prevalence of cholera, the frequency of epidemics, and access to basic services providing rapid rehydration therapy.

Efficacy and safety of a modified killed-whole-cell oral cholera vaccine in India: an interim analysis of a cluster-randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Oral cholera vaccines consisting of killed whole cells have been available for many years, but they have not been used extensively in populations with endemic disease. An inexpensive, locally produced oral killed-whole-cell vaccine has been used in high-risk areas in Vietnam. To expand the use of this vaccine, it was modified to comply with WHO standards. We assessed the efficacy and safety of this modified vaccine in a population with endemic cholera.

METHODS

In this double-blind trial, 107 774 non-pregnant residents of Kolkata, India, aged 1 year or older, were cluster-randomised by dwelling to receive two doses of either modified killed-whole-cell cholera vaccine (n=52 212; 1966 clusters) or heat-killed Escherichia coli K12 placebo (n=55 562; 1967 clusters), both delivered orally. Randomisation was done by computer-generated sequence in blocks of four. The primary endpoint was prevention of episodes of culture-confirmed Vibrio cholerae O1 diarrhoea severe enough for the patient to seek treatment in a health-care facility. We undertook an interim, per-protocol analysis at 2 years of follow-up that included individuals who received two completely ingested doses of vaccine or placebo. We assessed first episodes of cholera that occurred between 14 days and 730 days after receipt of the second dose. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00289224.

FINDINGS

31 932 participants assigned to vaccine (1721 clusters) and 34 968 assigned to placebo (1757 clusters) received two doses of study treatment. There were 20 episodes of cholera in the vaccine group and 68 episodes in the placebo group (protective efficacy 67%; one-tailed 99% CI, lower bound 35%, p<0.0001). The vaccine protected individuals in age-groups 1.0-4.9 years, 5.0-14.9 years, and 15 years and older, and protective efficacy did not differ significantly between age-groups (p=0.28). We recorded no vaccine-related serious adverse events.

INTERPRETATION

This modified killed-whole-cell oral vaccine, compliant with WHO standards, is safe, provides protection against clinically significant cholera in an endemic setting, and can be used in children aged 1.0-4.9 years, who are at highest risk of developing cholera in endemic settings.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Governments of South Korea, Sweden, and Kuwait.

Cost-effectiveness of new-generation oral cholera vaccines: a multisite analysis

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a low-cost cholera vaccine licensed and used in Vietnam, using recently collected data from four developing countries where cholera is endemic. Our analysis incorporated new findings on vaccine herd protective effects.

METHODS

Using data from Matlab, Bangladesh, Kolkata, India, North Jakarta, Indonesia, and Beira, Mozambique, we calculated the net public cost per disability-adjusted life year avoided for three immunization strategies: 1) school-based vaccination of children 5 to 14 years of age; 2) school-based vaccination of school children plus use of the schools to vaccinate children aged 1 to 4 years; and 3) community-based vaccination of persons aged 1 year and older.

RESULTS

We determined cost-effectiveness when vaccine herd protection was or was not considered, and compared this with commonly accepted cutoffs of gross domestic product (GDP) per person to classify interventions as cost-effective or very-cost effective. Without including herd protective effects, deployment of this vaccine would be cost-effective only in school-based programs in Kolkata and Beira. In contrast, after considering vaccine herd protection, all three programs were judged very cost-effective in Kolkata and Beira. Because these cost-effectiveness calculations include herd protection, the results are dependent on assumed vaccination coverage rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Ignoring the indirect effects of cholera vaccination has led to underestimation of the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programs with oral cholera vaccines. Once these effects are included, use of the oral killed whole cell vaccine in programs to control endemic cholera meets the per capita GDP criterion in several developing country settings.

Importance of coverage and endemicity on the return of infectious trachoma after a single mass antibiotic distribution

Background

As part of the SAFE strategy, mass antibiotic treatments are useful in controlling the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma. The World Health Organization recommends treating at least 80% of individuals per community. However, the role of antibiotic coverage for trachoma control has been poorly characterized.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a collection of cluster-randomized clinical trials, mass oral azithromycin was administered to 40 villages in Ethiopia. The village prevalence of ocular chlamydia was determined before treatment, and at two and six months post-treatment. The mean prevalence of ocular chlamydia was 48.9% (95% CI 42.8 to 55.0%) before mass treatments, decreased to 5.4% (95% CI 3.9 to 7.0%) at two months after treatments (p<0.0001), and returned to 7.9% (95% CI 5.4 to 10.4%) by six months after treatment (p = 0.03). Antibiotic coverage ranged from 73.9% to 100%, with a mean of 90.6%. In multivariate regression models, chlamydial prevalence two months after treatment was associated with baseline infection (p<0.0001) and antibiotic coverage (p = 0.007). However, by six months after treatment, chlamydial prevalence was associated only with baseline infection (p<0.0001), but not coverage (p = 0.31).

Conclusions/Significance

In post-hoc analyses of a large clinical trial, the amount of endemic chlamydial infection was a strong predictor of chlamydial infection after mass antibiotic treatments. Antibiotic coverage was an important short-term predictor of chlamydial infection, but no longer predicted infection by six months after mass antibiotic treatments. A wider range of antibiotic coverage than found in this study might allow an assessment of a more subtle association.

Trachoma, caused by ocular chlamydia infection, is the most common infectious cause of blindness in the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the SAFE strategy (eyelid surgery, antibiotics, facial hygiene, environmental improvements) for trachoma control. Oral antibiotics reduce the transmission of ocular chlamydia, but re-infection of treated individuals is common. Therefore, the WHO recommends annual mass antibiotic treatments to the entire village. The success of treatment is likely based on many factors, including the antibiotic coverage, or percentage of villagers who receive antibiotics. However, no studies have analyzed the importance of antibiotic coverage for the reduction of ocular chlamydia. Here, we performed multivariate regression analyses on data from a clinical trial of mass oral antibiotics for trachoma in a severely affected area of Ethiopia. At the relatively high levels of antibiotic coverage in our study, coverage was associated with post-treatment infection at two months, but not at six months. The amount of infection at baseline was strongly correlated with post-treatment infection at both two and six months. These results suggest that in areas with severe trachoma treated with relatively high antibiotic coverage, increasing coverage even further may have only a short-term benefit.

Spatial and environmental connectivity analysis in a cholera vaccine trial

This paper develops theory and methods for vaccine trials that utilize spatial and environmental information. Satellite imagery is used to identify whether households are connected to one another via water bodies in a study area in rural Bangladesh. Then relationships between neighborhood-level cholera vaccine coverage and placebo incidence and neighborhood-level spatial variables are measured. The study hypothesis is that unvaccinated people who are environmentally connected to people who have been vaccinated will be at lower risk compared to unvaccinated people who are environmentally connected to people who have not been vaccinated. We use four datasets including: a cholera vaccine trial database, a longitudinal demographic database of the rural population from which the vaccine trial participants were selected, a household-level geographic information system (GIS) database of the same study area, and high resolution Quickbird satellite imagery. An environmental connectivity metric was constructed by integrating the satellite imagery with the vaccine and demographic databases linked with GIS. The results show that there is a relationship between neighborhood rates of cholera vaccination and placebo incidence. Thus, people are indirectly protected when more people in their environmentally connected neighborhood are vaccinated. This result is similar to our previous work that used a simpler Euclidean distance neighborhood to measure neighborhood vaccine coverage [Ali, M., Emch, M., von Seidlein, L., Yunus, M., Sack, D. A., Holmgren, J., et al. (2005). Herd immunity conferred by killed oral cholera vaccines in Bangladesh. Lancet, 366(9479), 44-49]. Our new method of measuring environmental connectivity is more precise since it takes into account the transmission mode of cholera and therefore this study validates our assertion that the oral cholera vaccine provides indirect protection in addition to direct protection.

Herd immunity: recent uses in vaccine assessment

Human communities defend themselves against specific infectious agents in a way that extends beyond the simple sum of the immune status of its individuals. By analogy with individual immunity to specific agents, the community level of immunity may vary from complete susceptibility to full protection. Herd immunity has been used to name this community property, which is the result of evolution through natural selection, leading to relationships between two species, typical of prey-predator systems. Varying uses of the term herd immunity led to the use of other expressions, such as herd protection, herd effect and community immunity. Knowledge derived from observational studies and models on herd immunity has supported decisions on the choice of vaccines and vaccination strategies for the benefit of populations. This knowledge is most likely to be extended in the future, with far-reaching effects.