Zhang C, Ge H, Zhong J, Yin Y, Fang X, Zou Y, Feng H, Hu R. Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting hematoma expansion in intracerebral hemorrhage.
J Clin Neurosci 2020;
82:99-104. [PMID:
33317748 DOI:
10.1016/j.jocn.2020.10.027]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2020] [Revised: 09/15/2020] [Accepted: 10/18/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE
To develop and validate a clinical nomogram for individualized predicting hematoma expansion (HE) in patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ICH).
METHODS
A total of 1025 patients with ICH were retrospectively enrolled in the development cohort between 2010 and 2016. We identified and integrated significant factors for HE to build a nomogram. The model was subjected to validation with a separate cohort of 397 patients from the 2017-2019. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were measured by concordance index (C-index). The primary outcome was HE, defined as hematoma growth more than 6 mL or 33% increase in the volume.
RESULTS
A total of 1025 patients were included for univariable analysis. HE occurred in 180 patients (17.6%). The time to initial CT (≤6h vs. >6 h; p = 0.001), NIHSS score (0-4 vs. 5-14 vs. ≥15; p = 0.031), CTA spot sign (yes vs. no vs. absent; p = 0.018), hypodensities (p = 0.000), blend sign (p = 0.005), and INR (<1.2 vs. ≥1.2; p = 0.009) were identified and entered into the nomogram. The calibration curves for probability of HE showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index was 0.751. The validation cohort consisted of 397 patients and HE occurred in 78 patients (19.6%). The C-index was 0.743.
CONCLUSIONS
We developed and validated a nomogram that can individually predict HE for ICH in Chinese populations. This practical prognostic nomogram may help clinicians make decision of clinical practice and design of clinical studies.
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