Prediction Model for Wait Times in Cardiac Transplantation

Trends in Survival for Pediatric Transplantation

OBJECTIVES

Progress in pediatric transplantation measured in the context of waitlist and posttransplant survival is well documented but falls short of providing a complete perspective for children and their families. An intent-to-treat analysis, in which we measure survival from listing to death regardless of whether a transplant is received, provides a more comprehensive perspective through which progress can be examined.

METHODS

Univariable and multivariable Cox regression was used to analyze factors impacting intent-to-treat survival in 12 984 children listed for heart transplant, 17 519 children listed for liver transplant, and 16 699 children listed for kidney transplant. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to assess change in waitlist, posttransplant, and intent-to-treat survival. Wait times and transplant rates were compared by using χ2 tests.

RESULTS

Intent-to-treat survival steadily improved from 1987 to 2017 in children listed for heart (hazard ratio [HR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.96-0.97), liver (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.94-0.97), and kidney (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95-0.99) transplant. Waitlist and posttransplant survival also improved steadily for all 3 organs. For heart transplant, the percentage of patients transplanted within 1 year significantly increased from 1987 to 2017 (60.8% vs 68.7%); however, no significant increase was observed in liver (68.9% vs 72.5%) or kidney (59.2% vs 62.7%) transplant.

CONCLUSIONS

Intent-to-treat survival, which is more representative of the patient perspective than individual metrics alone, steadily improved for heart, liver, and kidney transplant over the study period. Further efforts to maximize the donor pool, improve posttransplant outcomes, and optimize patient care while on the waitlist may contribute to future progress.