Risk Models of Operative Morbidities in 16,930 Critically Ill Surgical Patients Based on a Japanese Nationwide Database

Predicting surgical outcomes of acute diffuse peritonitis: Updated risk models based on real-world clinical data

Aim

The existing predictive risk models for the surgical outcome of acute diffused peritonitis (ADP) need renovation by adding relevant variables such as ADP's definition or causative etiology to pursue outstanding data collection reflecting the real world. We aimed to revise the risk models predicting mortality and morbidities of ADP using the latest Japanese Nationwide Clinical Database (NCD) variable set.

Methods

Clinical dataset of ADP patients who underwent surgery, and registered in the NCD between 2016 and 2019, were used to develop a risk model for surgical outcomes. The primary outcome was perioperative mortality.

Results

After data cleanup, 45 379 surgical cases for ADP were derived for analysis. The perioperative and 30-day mortality were 10.6% and 7.2%, respectively. The prediction models have been created for the mortality and 10 morbidities associated with the mortality. The top five relevant predictors for perioperative mortality were age >80, advanced cancer with multiple metastases, platelet count of <50 000/mL, serum albumin of <2.0 g/dL, and unknown ADP site. The C-indices of perioperative and 30-day mortality were 0.859 and 0.857, respectively. The predicted value calculated with the risk models for mortality was highly fitted with the actual probability from the lower to the higher risk groups.

Conclusions

Risk models for postoperative mortality and morbidities with good predictive performance and reliability were revised and validated using the recent real-world clinical dataset. These models help to predict ADP surgical outcomes accurately and are available for clinical settings.

Intestinal dysbiosis as an intraoperative predictor of septic complications: evidence from human surgical cohorts and preclinical models of peritoneal sepsis

Major surgery exposes the intestinal microbiota to inflammatory and antibiotic stressors, which alter the microbiota composition of the intestinal lumen and fecal contents. However, it is not sufficiently understood, if such dysbiosis develops already during surgery and if alterations in microbiota may be the cause of surgical complications. End-of-surgery composition of the microbiota in the rectum was assessed in 41 patients undergoing either rectal or duodenopancreatic resection and was compared to baseline before surgery using 16S-rRNA sequencing. A subset of patients developed severe dysbiosis at the end of surgery, which was characterized by an overgrowth of the Proteobacteria phylum that includes the facultative pathogen E. coli. To test if dysbiosis impacts on surgical outcomes, dysbiosis was modeled in mice by a single oral administration of vancomycin prior to cecal ligation and puncture. Dysbiosis was associated with impaired post-surgical survival, dysregulation of the host's immune response, elevated bacterial virulence and reduced bacterial metabolism of carbon sources. In conclusion, dysbiosis can be detected already at the end of surgery in a fraction of patients undergoing major surgery. Modelling surgery-associated dysbiosis in mice using single-shot administration of vancomycin induced dysbiosis and resulted in elevated mortality.

Surgical outcomes in gastroenterological surgery in Japan: Report of the National Clinical Database 2011-2019

BACKGROUND

We aimed to present the 2019 annual report of the gastroenterological section of the National Clinical Database (NCD).

METHODS

We reviewed 609,589 cases recorded in 2019 and 5,029,764 cases registered from 2011 to 2019 for the 115 selected gastroenterological surgical procedures.

RESULTS

The main features of gastroenterological surgery in Japan were similar to those described in the 2018 annual report, namely, that 1) operative numbers gradually increased in all procedures, except gastrectomy and hepatectomy, which decreased in these years; 2) in all eight major gastroenterological surgeries, the age distribution tended toward older patients; 3) the morbidity of esophagectomy, hepatectomy, and pancreaticoduodenectomy increased, but mortality was minimized in all procedures; 4) all eight major gastroenterological procedures have increasingly been performed under laparoscopy; and 5) board-certified surgeons were increasingly involved. These trends in recent years were more prominent in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Thanks to the continuous cooperation and dedication of the surgeons, medical staff, and surgical clinical reviewers who registered the clinical data into the NCD, it is possible to understand the comprehensive landscape of surgery in Japan and to disclose new evidence in this field. The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery will continue to promote the value of this database and encourage the use of feedback and clinical studies using the NCD, now and in the future. Generating further approaches to surgical quality improvement are important directions for future research.

Profiles of institutional departments affect operative outcomes of eight gastroenterological procedures

AIM

We evaluated the association of profiles of institutional departments with operative outcomes of eight major gastroenterological procedures.

METHODS

We administered a 15-item online survey to 2634 institutional departments in 2016 to investigate the association of questionnaire responses with operative mortality for the procedures. The proportions of conditions met were listed according to institutional volume and classified according to annual operative cases in 1464 departments. Group A included departments with annual performance of <40 cases of the eight procedures, B 40-79 cases, C 80-199 cases, D 200-499 cases, and E ≥ 500 cases. We evaluated the number of conditions met for 10 of 15 items that could be improved by efforts of institutional departments, to assess whether the profiles of institutional departments had impacts on operative mortality. We built a multivariable logistic regression model for operative mortality with facilities categorized based on the number of conditions met and procedure-specific predicted mortality as explanatory variables using generalized estimating equation to account for facility-level clustering. We also examined how operative outcomes differed between facilities meeting nine or more conditions and those that did not.

RESULTS

We recognized meeting nine out of the 10 conditions as being a good indicator for having appropriate structural and process measures for gastroenterological surgery. The facilities meeting nine or more of the conditions had better operative mortality for all eight procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings reveal that the profiles of institutional departments can reflect the outcomes of gastroenterological surgery in Japan.

Prognostic impact of LY6K and CDCA1 expression for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

AIM

In the present study, we investigated the relationship between the expressions of two cancer testis antigens (CTA), LY6K (lymphocyte antigen 6 complex locus K) and CDCA1 (cell division cycle associated 1), in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) tumors and the long-term outcomes of patients with ESCC to clarify the clinical significance of LY6K and CDCA1 expression in ESCC tumors.

METHODS

A total of 175 patients with thoracic ESCC who had undergone a thoracic esophagectomy with three-field lymphadenectomy without neoadjuvant therapy were retrospectively reviewed in this study. LY6K and CDCA1 expressions were evaluated in tumor tissues using immunohistochemical (IH) staining.

RESULTS

Median patient age was 63 years; 159 patients (90.9%) were men. Ninety-four patients (55.3%) were LY6K-positive, and 85 patients (48.6%) were CDCA1-positive. The LY6K-positive group had a significantly worse overall survival (OS) than the LY6K-negative group (P = 0.012), and the CDCA1-positive group had a significantly worse OS than the CDCA1-negative group (P = 0.010). A multivariate analysis suggested that pathological N stage, venous invasion, LK6Y-positive and CDCA1-positive were independent prognostic factors. The patients were classified into four groups according to the staining pattern combinations of the two CTA. The LY6K-positive and CDCA1-positive group was found to have a significantly poorer outcome than the other groups.

CONCLUSION

ESCC patients with a combination of LY6K and CDCA1 expression in their tumor tissues had a worse prognosis than all the other ESCC patients and it was an independent factor associated with prognosis for patients with ESCC.

Development of gastroenterological surgery over the last decade in Japan: analysis of the National Clinical Database

The National Clinical Database (NCD) of Japan was established in 2010 with the board certification system. A joint committee of 16 gastroenterological surgery database-affiliated organizations has been nurturing this nationwide database and utilizing its data for various analyses. Stepwise board certification systems have been validated by the NCD and are used to improve the surgical outcomes of patients. The use of risk calculators based on risk models can be particularly helpful for establishing appropriate and less invasive surgical treatments for individual patients. Data obtained from the NCD reflect current developments in the surgical approaches used in hospitals, which have progressed from open surgery to endoscopic and robot-assisted procedures. An investigation of the data acquired by the NCD could answer some relevant clinical questions and lead to better surgical management of patients. Furthermore, excellent surgical outcomes can be achieved through international comparisons of the national databases worldwide. This review examines what we have learned from the NCD of gastroenterological surgery and discusses what future developments we can expect.

Surgical outcomes in gastroenterological surgery in Japan: Report of the National Clinical Database 2011-2018

The National Clinical Database (NCD) of Japan grew rapidly, harvesting over 11 million cases of data between 2011 and 2018 from more than 5000 facilities. This is the Report of the NCD based upon gastrointestinal surgery information in 4 420 175 cases from 2011 to 2018. More than 70% of all gastrointestinal surgeries were performed at certified institutions, and the percentage of surgeries performed at certified institutions was particularly high for the esophagus (93.8% in 2018), liver (89.4%), pancreas (91.3%), and spleen (86.9%). Also, more than 70% of the surgeries were performed with the participation of the board-certified surgeon. As the patients have been getting older, the morbidities have been increasing. However, the mortalities have been kept at a low level. The rates of endoscopic surgery have been increasing year by year, especially high in low anterior resection (67.0%) and esophagectomy (61.0%). Nationwide, this database is surely expecting to ensure the quality of board certification system and surgical outcomes in gastroenterological surgery.

Evaluating the quality of data from the Japanese National Clinical Database 2011 via a comparison with regional government report data and medical charts

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to examine the quality of data from the National Clinical Database (NCD) via a comparison with regional government report data and medical charts.

METHODS

A total of 1,165,790 surgical cases from 3007 hospitals were registered in the NCD in 2011. To evaluate the NCD's data coverage, we retrieved regional government report data for specified lung and esophageal surgeries and compared the number with registered cases in the NCD for corresponding procedures. We also randomly selected 21 sites for on-site data verification of eight demographic and surgical data components to assess the accuracy of data entry.

RESULTS

The numbers of patients registered in the NCD and regional government report were 46,143 and 48,716, respectively, for lung surgeries and 7494 and 8399, respectively, for esophageal surgeries, leading to estimated coverages of 94.7% for lung surgeries and 89.2% for esophageal surgeries. According to on-site verification of 609 cases at 18 sites, the overall agreement between the NCD data components and medical charts was 97.8%.

CONCLUSION

Approximately, 90-95% of the specified lung surgeries and esophageal surgeries performed in Japan were registered in the NCD in 2011. The NCD data were accurate relative to medical charts.

Risk assessment of morbidities after right hemicolectomy based on the National Clinical Database in Japan

OBJECTIVE

Nationwide databases are expected to provide critical data to improve medical practice. The present study used such data to develop risk models for clinically important outcomes after right hemicolectomy based on preoperative risk factors.

METHODS

Japan's National Clinical Database (NCD) identified 38 030 cases of right hemicolectomy in the years 2011 and 2012. These were used to analyze correlations between mortality and eight selected clinical outcomes of interest by Pearson's correlation coefficient (r). To construct risk models for the eight selected clinical outcomes, 80% of all the examined cases were extracted randomly as a development cohort, and preoperative risk factors for each clinical outcome were identified using a forward stepwise selection method. Morbidities predicted from the risk models were used to find areas under the receiver operator curves among the remaining 20% of the testing cohort.

RESULTS

The following clinical outcomes were identified as highly associated with operative mortality: systemic sepsis (r = .360), renal failure (r = .341), unplanned intubation (r = .316) and central nervous system (CNS) occurrences (r = .301). Risk models containing up to 21 preoperative variables were constructed for these eight postoperative clinical outcomes. Predictive values of the eight models were as follows: surgical site infections (0.634), anastomotic leakage (0.656), systemic sepsis (0.816), pneumonia (0.846), unplanned intubation (0.838), renal failure (0.883), CNS occurrences (0.833) and transfusion >5 units (0.846).

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicated that the NCD-generated risk models for six of the eight selected critical postoperative outcomes had high discrimination among right hemicolectomy patients. These risk models can accurately identify high-risk patients prior to surgery.

Surgical outcomes in gastroenterological surgery in Japan: Report of National Clinical database 2011-2016

The National Clinical Database (NCD) of Japan started its registration in 2011 and over 9 000 000 cases from more than 5000 facilities were registered over a 6‐year period. This is the report of NCD based upon gastrointestinal surgery information in excess of 3 200 000 cases from 2011 to 2016 adding data of complications. About 70% of all gastrointestinal surgeries were carried out at certified institutions, and the percentage of surgeries done at certified institutions was particularly high for the esophagus (92.4% in 2016), liver (88.4%), pancreas (89.8%), and spleen (86.8%). The percentage of anesthesiologist participation was more than 90% for almost all organs, except 85.7% for the rectum and anus. Approximately, more than two‐thirds of the surgeries were carried out with the participation of a board‐certified surgeon. Although patients have been getting older, mortalities have not been increasing. There were differences in the incidence of complications according to organ site and procedure. Remarkably, mortality rates of low anterior resection were very low, and those of hepatectomy and acute diffuse peritonitis surgery have been gradually decreasing. Although the complication rates were gradually increasing for esophagectomy or pancreaticoduodenectomy, the mortality rates for these procedures were decreasing. Nationwide, this database is expected to ensure the quality of the board‐certification system and surgical outcomes in gastroenterological surgery.

A comparison of the surgical mortality due to colorectal perforation at different hospitals with data from 10,090 cases in the Japanese National Clinical Database

Colorectal perforation has a high rate of mortality. We compared the incidence and fatality rates of colorectal perforation among different hospitals in Japan using data from the nationwide surgical database.Patients were registered in the National Clinical Database (NCD) between January 1st, 2011 and December 31st, 2013. Patients with colorectal perforation were identified from surgery records by examining if acute diffuse peritonitis (ADP) and diseases associated with a high probability of colorectal perforation were noted. The primary outcome measures included the 30-day postsurgery mortality and surgical mortality of colorectal perforation. We analyzed differences in the observed-to-expected mortality (O/E) ratio between the two groups of hospitals, that is, specialized and non-specialized, using the logistic regression analysis forward selection method.There were 10,090 cases of disease-induced colorectal perforation during the study period. The annual average postoperative fatality rate was 11.36%. There were 3884 patients in the specialized hospital group and 6206 in the non-specialized hospital group. The O/E ratio (0.9106) was significantly lower in the specialized hospital group than in the non-specialized hospital group (1.0704). The experience level of hospitals in treating cases of colorectal perforation negatively correlated with the O/E ratio.We conducted the first study investigating differences among hospitals with respect to their fatality rate of colorectal perforation on the basis of data from a nationwide database. Our data suggest that patients with colorectal perforation should choose to be treated at a specialized hospital or a hospital that treats five or more cases of colorectal perforation per year. The results of this study indicate that specialized hospitals may provide higher quality medical care, which in turn proves that government policy on healthcare is effective at improving the medical system in Japan.

Therapeutic management of peritonitis: a comprehensive guide for intensivists

PURPOSE

The management of peritonitis in critically ill patients is becoming increasingly complex due to their changing characteristics and the growing prevalence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria.

METHODS

A multidisciplinary panel summarizes the latest advances in the therapeutic management of these critically ill patients.

RESULTS

Appendicitis, cholecystitis and bowel perforation represent the majority of all community-acquired infections, while most cases of healthcare-associated infections occur following suture leaks and/or bowel perforation. The micro-organisms involved include a spectrum of Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria, as well as anaerobes and fungi. Healthcare-associated infections are associated with an increased likelihood of MDR pathogens. The key elements for success are early and optimal source control and adequate surgery and appropriate antibiotic therapy. Drainage, debridement, abdominal cleansing, irrigation, and control of the source of contamination are the major steps to ensure source control. In life-threatening situations, a "damage control" approach is the safest way to gain time and achieve stability. The initial empirical antiinfective therapy should be prescribed rapidly and must target all of the micro-organisms likely to be involved, including MDR bacteria and fungi, on the basis of the suspected risk factors. Dosage adjustment needs to be based on pharmacokinetic parameters. Supportive care includes pain management, optimization of ventilation, haemodynamic and fluid monitoring, improvement of renal function, nutrition and anticoagulation.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of patients with peritonitis develop complications, including worsening of pre-existing organ dysfunction, surgical complications and healthcare-associated infections. The probability of postoperative complications must be taken into account in the decision-making process prior to surgery.