Early neurological deterioration during the acute phase as a predictor of long-term outcome after first-ever ischemic stroke

Machine learning is an effective method to predict the 3-month prognosis of patients with acute ischemic stroke

Background and objectives

Upwards of 50% of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) survivors endure varying degrees of disability, with a recurrence rate of 17.7%. Thus, the prediction of outcomes in AIS may be useful for treatment decisions. This study aimed to determine the applicability of a machine learning approach for forecasting early outcomes in AIS patients.

Methods

A total of 659 patients with new-onset AIS admitted to the Department of Neurology of both the First and Second Affiliated Hospitals of Bengbu Medical University from January 2020 to October 2022 included in the study. The patient' demographic information, medical history, Trial of Org 10,172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST), National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and laboratory indicators at 24 h of admission data were collected. The Modified Rankine Scale (mRS) was used to assess the 3-mouth outcome of participants' prognosis. We constructed nine machine learning models based on 18 parameters and compared their accuracies for outcome variables.

Results

Feature selection through the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator cross-validation (Lasso CV) method identified the most critical predictors for early prognosis in AIS patients as white blood cell (WBC), homocysteine (HCY), D-Dimer, baseline NIHSS, fibrinogen degradation product (FDP), and glucose (GLU). Among the nine machine learning models evaluated, the Random Forest model exhibited superior performance in the test set, achieving an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.852, an accuracy rate of 0.818, a sensitivity of 0.654, a specificity of 0.945, and a recall rate of 0.900.

Conclusion

These findings indicate that RF models utilizing general clinical and laboratory data from the initial 24 h of admission can effectively predict the early prognosis of AIS patients.

Study protocol: Early neurological deterioration in patients with minor stroke, frequency, predictors, and outcomes in Vietnam single-centre study

Early neurological deterioration (END) is progressive neurological deterioration with an increase in NIHSS score of 2 points or more in the first 72 hours from the onset of acute ischemic stroke. END increases the risk of poor clinical outcomes at day 90 of ischemic stroke. We will study the frequency, predictors, and outcomes of patients with END in a case-control study at a comprehensive stroke centre in Vietnam. of the design is a descriptive observational study, longitudinal follow-up of patients with minor stroke hospitalized at the Stroke Center of Bach Mai Hospital from December 1, 2023, to December 1, 2024. Minor stroke patients characterized by NIHSS score ≤ 5 hospitalized within 24 hours of symptom onset will be recruited. The estimated END rate is about 30%, relative accuracy ε = 0.11, 95% reliability, expected 5% of patients lost data or follow-up, and an estimated sample size of 779 patients. This study will help determine the END rate in patients with minor stroke and related factors, thereby building a prognostic model for END. Our study determined the END rate in patients with minor stroke in Vietnam and also proposed risk factors for minor stroke management and treatment.

Predictive value of glycoprotein DKK3 for early neurological deterioration after ischemic stroke

OBJECTIVE

To explore the value of serum Dickkopf-3 (sDKK3) in predicting Early Neurological Deterioration (END) and in-hospital adverse outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients.

METHODS

AIS patients (n = 200) were included and assessed by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Rating Scale. Serum Dkk3 levels were assessed by ELISA. END was defined as an increase of ≥ 4 points in NIHSS score within 72h. The biological threshold of sDKK3 level and END occurrence were predicted based on X-tile software. Primary outcomes were END and all-cause death, and the secondary outcome was ICU admission during hospitalization. The logistic regression model and Cox risk regression model were applied to evaluate the relationship between DKK3 level and END incidence, all-cause in-hospital mortality, and in-hospital adverse outcomes (ICU admission).

RESULTS

During hospitalization, the incidence of END in patients with AIS was 13.0 %, and the mortality rate within 7 days after END was 11.54 % (3/26). In patients below the serum DKK3 cutoff (93.0 pg/mL), the incidence of END was 43.5 % (20/48). Patients with lower sDKK3 levels were associated with a 1.188-fold increased risk of developing END (OR = 1.188, 95 % CI 1.055‒1.369, p < 0.0001). However, there was no significant association with admission to the ICU. sDKK3 below the threshold (93.0 pg/mL) was a risk factor for death.

CONCLUSION

Predictive threshold levels of serum DKK3 based on X-tile software may be a potential predictive biomarker of in-hospital END in patients with AIS, and low levels of DKK3 are independently associated with increased in-hospital mortality.

Early neurological deterioration in acute ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Early neurological deterioration (END) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS), patients is defined as clinical worsening or recurrence during first 72 h after onset of AIS. We have conducted this study to determine the association between END and functional outcome at 3 months of onset of AIS along with associated risk factors of END in AIS cases.

METHODOLOGY

This study was conducted after approval of Institute Ethics Committee. Two hundred three consecutive patients were admitted from September 2020 to January 2022 at a tertiary care hospital. One hundred ninety patients were included in the study; patients were divided into two groups: (1) early neurological deterioration (END) and (2) non-early neurological deterioration (non-END). Patients were followed-up either telephonically or in person at approximately 3 months using modified Rankin Scale 0-6. All the clinically significant prognostic markers and p < 0.10 variables were considered significant in univariate analysis; P < 0.05 were considered statistically significant for the multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Out of 190 cases included in the cohort 34/190 (17.8%) cases showed END with mean age (56.56 (± 16.6)) and males (20/34 (58.8%)). END was independently associated with high blood glucose at admission (OR = 1.015; P = 0.002; 95%CI = 1.005-1.024) and low serum albumin (OR = 0.208; P = 0.002; 95%CI = 0.077-0.562). Patients with END showed poor functional outcome (mRS > 2) at end of 3 months (32 (94.1%); P < 0.001) and death was also statistically significant (22 (64.7%); P < 0.001) as compared to AIS cases having non-END.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed END may be associated with poor functional outcome in AIS patients. Higher blood glucose at admission and low serum albumin may be statistically significant causing END. Future prospective cohort with larger sample size may confirm the findings.

Predictive value of serum MDA and 4-HNE levels on the occurrence of early neurological deterioration after intravenous thrombolysis with rt-PA IVT in patients with acute ischemic stroke

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated the predictive value of serum MDA and 4-HNE levels on early neurological deterioration (END) after recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients.

METHODS

This study analyzed 287 AIS patients with standard-dose rt-PA IVT. Clinical baseline and pathological data were recorded before rt-PA IVT, and neurologic deficit was assessed by NIHSS. AIS patients were classified into Non-END and END groups. Serum MDA and 4-HNE levels were determined by ELISA and their correlations with NIHSS scores were evaluated. AIS patients were allocated into groups with high and low MDA or 4-HNE expression, and post-IVT END incidence was compared. Independent risk indexes for post-IVT END and the predictive value of serum MDA+4-HNE levels on post-IVT END were assessed.

RESULTS

Serum MDA and 4-HNE were higher in AIS patients with post-IVT END. NIHSS score showed a positive correlation with serum MDA and 4-HNE levels. MDA levels were positively correlated with 4-HNE levels in AIS patients. END after IVT was increased in AIS patients with high MDA/4-HNE expression. FBG, lymphocyte percentage, PLR, NIHSS score, serum MDA, and 4-HNE levels were independent risk factors for END after IVT. The diagnostic efficacy of MDA+4-HNE in assessing post-IVT END in AIS patients (sensitivity 92.00 %, specificity 82.70 %) was higher than MDA or 4-HNE alone.

CONCLUSION

Serum MDA and 4-HNE levels were higher in AIS patients with post-IVT END than in those with non-END, and MDA+4-HNE possessed a higher predictive value for post-IVT END in AIS patients.

Inflammatory marker profiles and in-hospital neurological deterioration in patients with acute minor ischemic stroke

AIM

The aim of the study was to analyze the association between inflammatory marker profiles and in-hospital neurological deterioration (ND) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients.

METHODS

Data from patients with minor AIS from the Third China National Stroke Registry were analyzed. Inflammatory cytokine levels within 24 h of admission were measured. The primary outcome was in-hospital ND (an increase in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≥4 from admission to discharge). Associations were evaluated using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) derived from logistic regression models. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to evaluate incremental predictive values.

RESULTS

A total of 4031 patients (1246 women, 30.9%) with a median age of 62 years were included. In-hospital ND occurred in 121 patients (3%). Each standard-deviation increase in interleukin (IL)-6 (OR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.06-1.31]) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) (OR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.24-1.66]) levels was associated with increased in-hospital ND risk. Incremental predictive values for adding IL-6 (IDI, 0.012; NRI, 0.329) but not hsCRP levels to the conventional risk factors were found.

CONCLUSION

In minor AIS, hsCRP and IL-6 levels were associated with in-hospital ND, including IL-6 levels in prognostic models improved risk classification.

Prediction of early neurological deterioration in acute ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis

A proportion of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients suffer from early neurological deterioration (END) within 24 hours following intravenous thrombolysis (IVT), which greatly increases the risk of poor prognosis of these patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the predictors of early neurological deterioration of ischemic origin (ENDi) in AIS patients after IVT and develop a nomogram prediction model. This study collected 244 AIS patients with post-thrombolysis ENDi as the derivation cohort and 155 patients as the validation cohort. To establish a nomogram prediction model, risk factors were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The results showed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (OR 2.616, 95% CI 1.640-4.175, P < 0.001), mean platelet volume (MPV) (OR 3.334, 95% CI 1.351-8.299, P = 0.009), body mass index (BMI) (OR 1.979, 95% CI 1.285-3.048, P = 0.002) and atrial fibrillation (AF) (OR 8.012, 95% CI 1.341-47.873, P = 0.023) were significantly associated with ENDi. The area under the curve of the prediction model constructed from the above four factors was 0.981 (95% CI 0.961-1.000) and the calibration curve was close to the ideal diagonal line. Therefore, this nomogram prediction model exhibited good discrimination and calibration power and might be a reliable and easy-to-use tool to predict post-thrombolysis ENDi in AIS patients.

Combining clinical and imaging data for predicting functional outcomes after acute ischemic stroke: an automated machine learning approach

This study aimed to develop and validate an automated machine learning (ML) system that predicts 3-month functional outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients by combining clinical and neuroimaging features. Functional outcomes were categorized as unfavorable (modified Rankin Scale ≥ 3) or not. A clinical model employing optimal clinical features (Model_A), a convolutional neural network model incorporating imaging data (Model_B), and an integrated model combining both imaging and clinical features (Model_C) were developed and tested to predict unfavorable outcomes. The developed models were compared with each other and with traditional risk-scoring models. The dataset comprised 4147 patients from a multicenter stroke registry, with 1268 (30.6%) experiencing unfavorable outcomes. Age, initial NIHSS, and early neurologic deterioration were identified as the most important clinical features. The ML model prediction achieved an area under the curves of 0.757 (95% CI 0.726-0.789) for Model_A, 0.725 (95% CI 0.693-0.755) for Model_B, and 0.786 (95% CI 0.757-0.814) for Model_C in the test set. The integrated models outperformed traditional risk-scoring models by 0.21 (95% CI 0.16-0.25) for HIAT and 0.15 (95% CI 0.11-0.19) for THRIVE. In conclusion, the integrated ML system enhanced stroke outcome prediction by combining imaging data and clinical features, outperforming traditional risk-scoring models.

Follow-Up Diffusion-Weighted Image Reveals Delayed Appearance of Ischemic Lesions in Suspected Transient Ischemic Attack

INTRODUCTION

In patients suspected of transient ischemic attack (TIA), it is not uncommon to find no lesion on the diffusion-weighted image (DWI) on admission but a delayed appearance on the follow-up DWI.

METHODS

Enrolled patients met the following criteria: (1) MRI performed within 24 hours of onset and seven days after admission; (2) National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score ≦4 on admission; (3) pre-stroke modified Rankin scale (mRS) score of 0-1. Patients were divided as follows: no lesion on the first DWI and a new lesion on the second DWI (delayed-specified ischemic stroke; DSIS); and no lesion on either the first or second DWI (well-screened TIA; WSTIA). We compared both groups regarding the clinical background and the outcome at three months.

RESULTS

We identified 144 cases (male 70%; median age 64 years; DSIS, n=34) between October 2012 and March 2019. DSIS was older (71 vs. 60 years, p=0.006) and had a higher NIHSS score on admission (1 vs. 0, p=0.041), a higher rate of large vessel occlusion (LVO) (17% vs. 2%, p=0.008), and symptom duration over one hour (82% vs. 64%, p=0.041). A favorable outcome mRS score of 0-1 at three months was less frequent in DSIS (85% vs. 96%, p=0.004). Age/10 (OR 1.62, 95%CI 1.17-2.24; p=0.004) and LVO (OR 10.84, 95%CI 1.87-63.06; p=0.008) were independent factors for DSIS.

CONCLUSIONS

In suspected TIA with age or LVO but no lesion in the initial DWI, the second DWI should be considered to identify the delayed appearance of an ischemic stroke.

Interpretable machine learning for prediction of clinical outcomes in acute ischemic stroke

Background and aims

Predicting the prognosis of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is crucial in a clinical setting for establishing suitable treatment plans. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model that predicts the functional outcome of AIS patients and provides interpretable insights.

Methods

We included AIS patients from a multicenter stroke registry in this prognostic study. ML-based methods were utilized to predict 3-month functional outcomes, which were categorized as either favorable [modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤ 2] or unfavorable (mRS ≥ 3). The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was employed to identify significant features and interpret their contributions to the predictions of the model.

Results

The dataset comprised a derivation set of 3,687 patients and two external validation sets totaling 250 and 110 patients each. Among them, the number of unfavorable outcomes was 1,123 (30.4%) in the derivation set, and 93 (37.2%) and 32 (29.1%) in external sets A and B, respectively. Among the ML models used, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model demonstrated the best performance. It achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.790 (95% CI: 0.775-0.806) on the internal test set and 0.791 (95% CI: 0.733-0.848) and 0.873 (95% CI: 0.798-0.948) on the two external test sets, respectively. The key features for predicting functional outcomes were the initial NIHSS, early neurologic deterioration (END), age, and white blood cell count. The END displayed noticeable interactions with several other features.

Conclusion

ML algorithms demonstrated proficient prediction for the 3-month functional outcome in AIS patients. With the aid of the SHAP method, we can attain an in-depth understanding of how critical features contribute to model predictions and how changes in these features influence such predictions.

Elevated NT-proBNP predicts unfavorable outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke after thrombolytic therapy

OBJECTIVE

Few studies correlated n-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with early neurological deterioration (END) and prognosis of acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) patients with rt-PA intravenous thrombolysis. Therefore this study aimed to investigate the relationship between NT-proBNP and END, and prognosis after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with AIS.

METHODS

A total of 325 patients with AIS were enrolled. We performed the natural logarithm transformation on the NT-proBNP [ln(NT-proBNP)]. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the relationship between ln(NT-proBNP) and END, and prognosis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to show the sensitivity and specificity of NT-proBNP.

RESULTS

After thrombolysis, among 325 patients with AIS, 43 patients (13.2%) developed END. In addition, three months follow-up showed a poor prognosis in 98 cases (30.2%) and a good prognosis in 227 cases (69.8%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that ln(NT-proBNP) was an independent risk factor for END (OR = 1.450,95%CI:1.072 ~ 1.963, P = 0.016) and poor prognosis at three months follow-up (OR = 1.767, 95%CI: 1.347 ~ 2.317, P < 0.001) respectively. According to ROC curve analysis, ln(NT-proBNP) (AUC 0.735, 95%CI: 0.674 ~0.796, P < 0.001) had a good predictive value for poor prognosis, with a predictive value of 5.12 and sensitivity and specificity of 79.59% and 60.35% respectively. When combined with NIHSS to predict END(AUC 0.718, 95%CI: 0.631 ~ 0.805, P < 0.001) and poor prognosis(AUC 0.780, 95%CI: 0.724 ~ 0.836, P < 0.001), the predictive value of the model is further improved.

CONCLUSION

NT-proBNP is independently associated with END and poor prognosis in patients with AIS following intravenous thrombolysis and has a particular predictive value for END and poor prognosis.

The efficacy and safety of intravenous tirofiban in the treatment of acute ischemic stroke patients with early neurological deterioration

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE

Many patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) develop early neurological deterioration (END), leading to disabilities or death. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of intravenous tirofiban in treating patients with AIS and END who missed the thrombolysis time window.

METHODS

A total of 123 AIS-END patients participated in the study between January 2021 and December 2021. Patients were randomized into the tirofiban group (n = 63) and the control group (n = 60) based on whether a tirofiban injection was administered. The National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) was used to assess neurological function at the 48th hour and on the 7th day after intervention, and the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was used to assess neurological recovery 90 days after AIS. Adverse reactions during the intervention were recorded for safety analysis.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The 7th day NIHSS and 90th day post-AIS mRS scores of the tirofiban group were significantly lower than those of the control group (p < 0.05), while the 90th day good prognosis (mRS ≤ 2) rate of the tirofiban group was significantly higher (84.13% vs. 65.00%, p < 0.05). Logistic regression demonstrated a protective effect of tirofiban for good prognosis in AIS patients with END (OR = 4.675, 95% CI [1.012-21.605], p < 0.05). No cases of intracranial haemorrhage transformation or death were observed during the treatment in either group.

WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION

Tirofiban injection exhibited a high safety profile and significantly improved the prognosis of AIS-END patients who missed the intravenous thrombolysis time window.

Association between premorbid sarcopenia and neurological deterioration in patients with acute ischemic stroke

OBJECTIVE

Sarcopenia is associated with poor outcomes in patients with stroke. This study aimed to investigate the association between premorbid sarcopenia and neurological deterioration (ND) in patients with acute ischemic stroke. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies on this topic.

METHODS

In this prospective longitudinal study, we assessed premorbid sarcopenia using the SARC-F questionnaire, and the incidence of ND was defined by an increase of ≥ 1 point on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) or the occurrence of any new neurological symptoms/signs. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between premorbid sarcopenia and ND.

RESULTS

Of the 290 patients enrolled, 46 and 244 patients experienced and did not experience ND 1 week after admission (ND and non-ND groups, respectively). The prevalence of sarcopenia was significantly higher in the ND group than in the non-ND group (39% vs. 17%). In the adjusted model, premorbid sarcopenia was significantly associated with ND (adjusted odds ratio: 3.06, 95% confidence interval: 1.11-8.40; p = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Premorbid sarcopenia is independently associated with ND in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Therefore, it is necessary to detect premorbid sarcopenia to predict ND in these patients.

Trial of a prehospital intervention with traditional Chinese medicine for acute stroke (TRACE): Protocol for a mixed-methods research study

Background: As the only traditional Chinese medicine injection approved by the China Food and Drug Administration for use as stroke first aid in ambulances, Xingnaojing Injection (XNJI) has been widely used in cases of both acute ischemic stroke (IS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). However, there is no robust clinical evidence regarding the efficacy and safety of the early use of XNJI during stroke first aid. The main purpose of this trial is to observe whether XNJI, intravenously administered within 24 h of onset in the prehospital ambulance setting, protects against early neurological deterioration (END) on the third day of onset in patients with acute stroke.

Methods: The Trial of a prehospital intervention with traditional Chinese medicine for acute stroke (TRACE) is a Mixed-Methods research (MMR) study that involves a combination of quantitative and qualitative research. The quantitative research part of this project is a prospective, multicenter, observational, clinical registry study, for which we aimed to recruit 1,000 patients with acute stroke (IS and ICH). Based on our observation of whether XNJI was intravenously administered within 24 h of onset in the prehospital ambulance setting, patients with acute stroke will be divided into two groups: the exposure group comprising patients who were intravenously administered XNJI and the nonexposure group comprising patients who were not. The primary outcome is early neurological deterioration (END) on the third day of onset defined as an increase of 2 or more points in the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score between baseline and day 3. In addition, based on the aforementioned quantitative research, qualitative research will be conducted by interviewing emergency doctors about their knowledge and attitude regarding XNJI used for stroke first aid.

Discussion: The results of the TRACE study will provide preliminary evidence for the relationship between XNJI used within 24 h of onset and the presence of END on the third day after stroke onset; it will aid in improving the current knowledge regarding the early use of XNJI for stroke first aid.

Clinical Trial Registration:clinicaltrials.gov, identifier NCT04275349

Perfusion profile evaluated by severity-weighted multiple Tmax strata predicts early neurological deterioration in minor stroke with large vessel occlusion

Minor stroke due to large vessel occlusion (LVO) is associated with poor outcomes. Hypoperfused tissue fate may be more accurately predicted by severity-weighted multiple perfusion strata than by a single perfusion threshold. We investigated whether poor perfusion profile evaluated by multiple Tmax strata is associated with early neurological deterioration (END) in patients with minor stroke with LVO. Ninety-four patients with a baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score ≤5 and anterior circulation LVO admitted within 24 hours of onset were included. Tmax strata proportions (Tmax 2-4 s, 4-6 s, 6-8 s, 8-10 s, and >10 s) against the entire hypoperfusion volume (Tmax >2 s) were measured. The perfusion profile was defined as the shift of the distribution of the Tmax strata proportions towards worse hypoperfusion severity compared with that of the entire cohort using the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney generalised odds ratio (OR); its performance to predict END was tested. The area under the curve of perfusion profile was 0.785 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.691-0.878, p < 0.001). Poor perfusion profile (generalised OR >1.052) was independently associated with END (adjusted OR 13.42 [95% CI: 4.38-41.15], p < 0.001). Thus, perfusion profile with severity-weighted multiple Tmax strata may predict END in minor stroke and LVO.

Effects of individualized administration of folic acid on prothrombotic state and vascular endothelial function with H-type hypertension: A double-blinded, randomized clinical cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hypertension and hyperhomocysteinemia (HHcy) have long been associated with adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular health outcomes. This study evaluated the effect of individualized administration of folic acid (FA) on homocysteine (Hcy) levels, prothrombotic state, and blood pressure (BP) in patients with H-type hypertension (combination of HHcy and hypertension).

METHODS

In this double-blinded, randomized clinical cohort study, 126 patients with H-type hypertension who were treated at our hospital were randomly divided into treatment and control groups (n = 55 each). The control group was treated with oral levamlodipine besylate tablets 2.5 mg and placebo, once a day (in the morning). The treatment group was first treated with oral levamlodipine besylate 2.5 mg and FA tablets 0.8 mg, once a day (in the morning), for 12 weeks. Then, in a second 12-week phase, the FA dose was adjusted using the methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase C677 polymorphism genotype. The levels of Hcy and coagulation factors, prothrombotic state parameters, BP, and adverse drug reactions were compared between the 2 groups.

RESULTS

Pretreatment general patient characteristics, including Hcy levels, were similar between the 2 groups (P > .05). BP and prothrombotic status did not differ before and after the first phase of treatment (P > .05). However, Hcy and endothelin-1 (ET-1) levels decreased, while nitric oxide levels increased significantly in the intervention group (P < .05). In the second phase, after 3 months' treatment with an FA dose adjusted according to methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase C677T genotype, the Hcy and ET-1/NO levels were significantly decreased in the intervention group and were lower than those after the first treatment phase and lower than in the control group (P < .01). BP, D-dimer levels, and fibrinogen scores were significantly lower after the second treatment phase (P < .01). There was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse drug reactions between the 2 groups (P > .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Individualized administration of FA tablets can effectively reduce BP, and Hcy and coagulation factor levels, and significantly improve prothrombotic status in patients with H-type hypertension.

Predictors of Early Neurological Deterioration and Functional Outcome in Acute Ischemic Stroke: The Importance of Large Artery Disease, Hyperglycemia and Inflammatory Blood Biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Early neurological deterioration (END) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) can be associated with poor outcome. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between infarction subtypes, biomarkers and END, and to identify patients with risk of unfavorable functional outcome.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This prospective study enrolled 101 patients with AIS. Neurological status was evaluated according to NIHSS at acute onset, on days 2, 3, and 90. END was defined as ≥2-point increase of NIHSS within 72 hours. Functional outcome was assessed using NIHSS and the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at day 90.

RESULTS

END was observed in 20, 8%. Patients with large artery disease had higher risk of developing END compared with patients with cardioembolism or small vessel disease (p <0.01). Significant higher blood glucose level and leukocytes were observed in the END group. Patients with END had higher scores of mRS at day 90 (p <0.01). Levels of NSE, IL-6, hsCRP and NT-proBNP were higher in the patients with unfavorable compared with favorable functional outcome.

CONCLUSION

Large artery disease, high blood glucose and leukocytes levels are associated with END. Elevated levels of blood markers NSE, IL-6, HsCRP and NT-proBNP indicate poor functional outcome at 90 days after AIS. These patients must be identified and be offered treatment immediately in order to improve the functional outcome after AIS.

Malnutrition and the Risk of Early Neurological Deterioration in Elderly Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between malnutrition and early neurological deterioration (END) in elderly patients with acute ischemic stroke in China.

METHODS

We used the registry data in the Third Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University and Nanjing Brain Hospital from June 2019 to January 2021. Malnutrition risk was evaluated by controlling nutritional status score (CONUT), geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) score, respectively. END was defined as an increment of at least two points in the total NIHSS score within three days after admission. We evaluated the relationship between malnutrition and END with multivariable logistic regression models and reclassification indexes.

RESULTS

A total of 732 elderly patients with first-ever acute ischemic stroke were included in the study. 243 patients developed END. 5.7%, 21.4%, 4.6% patients were classified as moderate to severe malnutrition by CONUT, GNRI and PNI, respectively. Malnutrition was associated with the risk of END for CONUT (odds ratio [OR], 1.210; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.092-1.341; P < 0.001), for GNRI (OR, 0.943; 95% CI, 0.919-0.967; P < 0.001), and for PNI (OR, 0.936; 95% CI, 0.908-0.965; P < 0.001) in multivariable logistic regression models using the back-ward selection method. The discriminative ability was 0.763 (95% CI, 0.727-0.798) for CONUT, 0.769 (95% CI, 0.733-0.805) for GNRI and 0.769 (95% CI, 0.733-0.805) for PNI after adjusting for confounders. Besides, adding malnutrition indexes into models made the prediction of END more accurate.

CONCLUSION

Malnutrition was associated with END in elderly Chinese patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Interpretable machine learning for early neurological deterioration prediction in atrial fibrillation-related stroke

We aimed to develop a novel prediction model for early neurological deterioration (END) based on an interpretable machine learning (ML) algorithm for atrial fibrillation (AF)-related stroke and to evaluate the prediction accuracy and feature importance of ML models. Data from multicenter prospective stroke registries in South Korea were collected. After stepwise data preprocessing, we utilized logistic regression, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and multilayer perceptron models. We used the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) method to evaluate feature importance. Of the 3,213 stroke patients, the 2,363 who had arrived at the hospital within 24 h of symptom onset and had available information regarding END were included. Of these, 318 (13.5%) had END. The LightGBM model showed the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.772; 95% confidence interval, 0.715–0.829). The feature importance analysis revealed that fasting glucose level and the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score were the most influential factors. Among ML algorithms, the LightGBM model was particularly useful for predicting END, as it revealed new and diverse predictors. Additionally, the effects of the features on the predictive power of the model were individualized using the SHAP method.

Different Predictive Factors for Early Neurological Deterioration Based on the Location of Single Subcortical Infarction: Early Prognosis in Single Subcortical Infarction

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Patients with single subcortical infarctions (SSIs) have relatively a favorable prognosis, but they often experience early neurological deterioration (END). In this study, we compared the predictors for END in patients with SSI according to the location of the lesion.

METHODS

We included consecutive patients with SSIs within 72 hours of symptom onset presenting between 2010 and 2016. END was defined as an increase of ≥2 in the total National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score or ≥1 in the motor NIHSS score within the first 72 hours of admission. Along with the analysis of all patients with SSI, we also analyzed the predictors for END in proximal/distal SSI patients and anterior/posterior circulation SSI patients.

RESULTS

A total of 438 patients with SSI were evaluated. In multivariable analysis, initial NIHSS score (adjusted odds ratio, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.15-1.60]), pulsatility index (adjusted odds ratio, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.03-1.52]), parent artery disease (adjusted odds ratio, 2.14 [95% CI, 1.06-4.33]), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (adjusted odds ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.04-1.49]) were positively associated with END. In patients with proximal SSI, initial NIHSS score, pulsatility index, parent artery disease, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio showed positive associations with END. Meanwhile, no variable related to END was found in the distal SSI group. When we compared the predictors for END based on the involved vascular territory, higher initial NIHSS score and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were significantly associated with END in patients with anterior circulation SSIs. On the contrary, higher pulsatility index values and the presence of parent artery disease were independent predictors for END in patients with SSIs in the posterior circulation.

CONCLUSIONS

Initial NIHSS score, pulsatility index, parent artery disease, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio are associated with END in patients with SSIs. The frequency and predictors for END differ depending on the location of the SSI.

Predictive Model of Early Neurological Deterioration in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop a predictive model of early neurological deterioration (END) in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

METHODS

The present retrospective cohort study considered patients with AIS who were admitted to a tertiary hospital in Shenzhen, China between January 2014 and December 2018. An increase of 2 points or more on the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) within 7 days indicated END. We selected baseline clinical, laboratory, and neuroimaging variables to construct predictive models through multivariate logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration plots were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 391 patients with AIS were enrolled in the study. END was observed in 64 (16.4%) cases. A prediction model developed from the initial NIHSS score, middle cerebral artery stenosis, and carotid stenosis of≥ 50% showed good discriminative ability: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.870 (95%CI, 0.813-0.911); threshold, -1.570; specificity, 84.40%; sensitivity, 75.00%; positive predictive value, 48.48%; and a negative predictive value, 94.52%.

CONCLUSION

Our predictive model developed from the initial NIHSS score, middle cerebral artery stenosis, and carotid stenosis of ≥ 50% could identify patients with AIS who were at risk of developing END. The model requires validation by larger studies performed at other institutions.

Early-Onset Depression in Stroke Patients: Effects on Unfavorable Outcome 5 Years Post-stroke

Background: Post-stroke depression (PSD) constitutes an essential complication of stroke and is associated with high-risk unfavorable outcome after stroke. The main objective of this prospective study was to determine the relationship between early-onset PSD (1 month after stroke) and functional outcomes 5 years after baseline enrollment. Methods: Four hundred thirty-six patients who met the criteria were included in this study from October 2013 to February 2015. The follow-up time for each patient was ~5 years, with follow-up every 3 months. Patients received questionnaires including the 17-item Hamilton Depression Scale (HAMD), the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), and the Barthel Index (BI). Results: Of the 436 patients, 154 (35.3%) patients with the prevalence of PSD status at baseline, 26 (7.2%) patients with the prevalence of PSD status, and 73 (20.1%) had an unfavorable outcome 5 years after stroke. The odds ratio (OR) for unfavorable outcome at 5 years in the PSD group was ~2.2 relative to the non-PSD group after adjusting for potential risk factors [OR = 2.217, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.179-4.421, P = 0.015]. In the early-onset PSD group, HAMD scores were independently associated with 5-year unfavorable outcome rates (OR = 1.168, 95% CI = 1.015-1.345, P = 0.031). Conclusions: Our findings indicate that early-onset PSD status in Chinese patients is an independent risk factor for unfavorable outcome 5 years after stroke, and that the severity of PSD is also related to unfavorable outcome.

Decreased Serum Total Bilirubin Level Predicts Early Neurological Deterioration in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between serum total bilirubin (TBil) level and early neurological deterioration (END) in patients with acute ischemic stroke of large artery atherosclerosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, a total of 291 patients with acute ischemic stroke were enrolled. The demographic and laboratory dates were collected. Stroke severity had been assessed using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the independent association between TBil and END.

RESULTS

Approximately 63 (21.6%) of the patients were diagnosed with END within the first seven days. The proportion of hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM) and previous stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) was significant greater in the lowest quartile (<9.8 μmol/l) of TBil. The proportion of patients with an elevated TBil levels was significantly lower in the END group than in the non-END group. After controlling for covariates, the first quartiles (<9.8 μmol/l) of TBil were still associated with END. In addition, an increased level of CRP and age were also associated with an increased risk of END.

CONCLUSION

The TBil levels in patients with acute cerebral infarction may be a useful biomarker for the prediction of END.

Effect of Huoxiang Zhengqi Pill on Early Neurological Deterioration in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke Undergoing Recanalization Therapy and Predictive Effect of Essen Score

Early neurologic deterioration (END) in the acute phase of ischemic stroke is a serious clinical event, which is closely related to poor prognosis. Therefore, it is important to identify presentation features that predict END and take relevant treatment measures, as they could help to prevent the deterioration of high-risk patients. The prospective intervention study was carried out from January 2018 to December 2019. We included consecutive patients hospitalized for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) within 6 hours of onset. Patients were randomly assigned (1 : 1) to recanalization therapy plus Huoxiang Zhengqi Pill (HXZQ) (intervention group) or standard recanalization therapy alone (control group). The primary outcome was the development of END according to predefined criteria within the first 1 week of stroke onset. Poisson regression was used to identify predictors for END. Of the 155 patients enrolled in the study (age, 63 ± 11 years; 28.4% female), 20 (12.9%) developed END. Univariate analysis showed that the use of HXZQ and Essen stroke risk score (ESRS) (low risk group) were protective factors for END, while advanced age was a risk factor for END. However, in multivariate analysis, only ESRS (OR, 0.232; 95%CI, 0.058–0.928; P=0.039) and the use of HXZQ (OR, 0.297; 95%CI, 0.096–0.917; P=0.035) were statistically significant. ESRS can be used as the prediction factor of END. HXZQ has small side effects and wide indication. It could be used in the treatment of AIS.

Impact of Time Interval between Index Event and Stenting on Periprocedural Risk in Patients with Symptomatic Carotid Stenosis

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of time interval between index event and stenting on the periprocedural risk of stenting for symptomatic carotid stenosis and to determine the optimal timing of stenting.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 491 (322 symptomatic [65.6%] and 169 asymptomatic [34.4%]) patients undergoing carotid stenting. The symptomatic patients were categorized into Day 0-3, 4-7, 8-10, 11-14, 15-21, and >21 groups according to the time interval between index event and stenting. Periprocedural (≤30 days) risk for clinical (any neurological deterioration) and radiological (new infarction on postprocedural diffusion-weighted imaging) events of stenting in each time interval versus asymptomatic stenosis was calculated with logistic regression analysis adjusted for confounders, and provided as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

Overall clinical event rate (4.3%) of stenting for symptomatic carotid stenosis was higher than that for asymptomatic stenosis (1.2%; OR, 3.979 [95% CI, 1.093-14.489]; p=0.036). Stenting in Day 0-3 (13.2%; OR, 10.997 [95% CI, 2.333-51.826]; p=0.002) and Day 4-7 (8.3%; OR, 6.775 [95% CI, 1.382-33.227]; p=0.018) was associated with high risk for clinical events. However, the clinical event rates in stenting after 7 days from index event (Day 8-10, 1.8%; Day 11-14, 2.5%; Day 15-21, 0%; Day >21, 2.9%) were not different from that in stenting for asymptomatic stenosis. Overall radiological event rate (55.6%) in symptomatic stenosis was also higher than that in asymptomatic stenosis (35.5%; OR, 2.274 [95% CI, 1.553-3.352]; p<0.001). The high risk for radiological events was maintained in all time intervals (Day 0-3 : 55.3%; OR, 2.224 [95% CI, 1.103-4.627]; p=0.026; Day 4-7 : 58.3%; OR, 2.543 [95% CI, 1.329-4.949]; p=0.005; Day 8-10 : 53.6%; OR, 2.096 [95% CI, 1.138-3.889]; p=0.018; Day 11-14 : 57.5%; OR, 2.458 [95% CI, 1.225-5.021]; p=0.012; Day 15-21 : 55.6%; OR, 2.271 [95% CI, 1.099-4.764]; p=0.028; Day >21 : 54.8%; OR, 2.203 [95% CI, 1.342-3.641]; p=0.002).

CONCLUSION

This study showed that as stenting was delayed, the periprocedural risk for clinical events decreased. The clinical event risk was high only in stenting within 7 days and comparable with that for asymptomatic stenosis in stenting after 7 days from index event, although the radiological event risk was not affected by stenting timing. Therefore, our results suggest that delayed stenting after 7 days from symptom onset is a safe strategy for symptomatic stenosis.

Association between neurological deterioration and outcomes in patients with stroke

Background

Neurological deterioration (ND) shortly after stroke is common in Chinese patients. We aimed to determine the effects of ND during hospitalization on stroke prognosis.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed files from the stroke registry of the Department of Neurology of Tianjin Huanhu Hospital between October 1, 2008, and December 31, 2015. The inclusion criteria were: age ≥18 years, diagnosis of acute ischemic stroke, and first-ever ischemic stroke occurring within 7 days prior to admission. ND was defined as an increase in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score by ≥4 points during hospitalization. Early neurological deterioration (END) was defined as an increase in the NIHSS score by ≥4 points between the baseline and 48-hour evaluations. Late neurological deterioration (LND) was defined as an increase in the NIHSS score by ≥4 points between the 48-hour and discharge evaluations. Multivariate regression was used to evaluate the relationship between early and late ND and short- and long-term outcomes. Primary and secondary outcomes based on the modified Rankin scale (mRS) were evaluated at 3 months and 1 year. Favorable and poor outcomes were defined as mRS scores of 0-2 and ≥3, respectively.

Results

A total of 9,650 patients were included. ND occurred in 293 patients (3.0%) during hospitalization. Among them, 192 (65.5%) were in the END group, and 101 (34.5%) were in the LND group. After adjusting for age, gender, and NIHSS scores, END was a significant independent predictor of poor outcome at both 3 months (primary outcome OR 8.069, secondary outcome OR 8.194) and 1 year (primary outcome OR 7.895, secondary outcome OR 5.679). The same pattern was seen in the LND group (3 months primary outcome OR 7.608, secondary outcome OR 6.349, 1-year primary outcome OR 10.793, secondary outcome OR 5.245).

Conclusions

ND during hospitalization, regardless of whether it occurs in the early or late period after stroke, is an independent predictor of poor prognosis.

Is spontaneous normalization of systolic blood pressure within 24 hours after ischemic stroke onset related with favorable outcomes?

Background

In acute ischemic stroke, blood pressure (BP) tends to rise initially and fall to a baseline level within 24–48 hours. Previous studies reported several different effects of BPs during acute ischemic stroke on clinical outcomes, which was partly due to the different time intervals from stroke onset to BP measurement.

Methods

All patients with acute ischemic stroke (onset ≤3 hours) who lived independently before the stroke, were consecutively enrolled for a 62-month period. BPs at 0, 12, and 24 hours after admission were collected. A favorable outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score 0–2 at discharge. For different standards of BP management, patients were grouped and analyzed according to intravenous (IV) tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) treatment and favorable outcome.

Results

Among the 446 enrolled patients, 227 patients underwent IV tPA treatment and 216 had mRS score 0–2 at discharge. Patients with favorable outcomes had lower initial NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, less frequent progressive neurological deficits, and lower systolic BP (SBP) 12 and 24 hours after admission than patients with unfavorable outcomes, regardless of whether they underwent tPA treatment or not (p <0.05). The BP decreased over a period of 24 hours after admission. In logistic regression analysis, the independent variables associated with favorable outcome were the initial NIHSS score, a progressive neurological deficit, a previous stroke, and the SBP 24 hours after admission in the patients who underwent tPA treatment and the initial NIHSS score and a progressive neurological deficit in the patients who did not undergo tPA treatment (p <0.05).

Conclusions

The SBPs at 12 and 24 hours after admission were lower in acute stroke patients with favorable outcomes than in the other patients, regardless of whether the patients underwent tPA therapy and the SBP at 24 hours was an independent predictor of favorable outcomes among the patients who underwent tPA treatment.

Clinical Variables and Genetic Risk Factors Associated with the Acute Outcome of Ischemic Stroke: A Systematic Review

Stroke is a complex disease and one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality among the adult population. A huge variety of factors is known to influence patient outcome, including demographic variables, comorbidities or genetics. In this review, we expound what is known about the influence of clinical variables and related genetic risk factors on ischemic stroke outcome, focusing on acute and subacute outcome (within 24 to 48 hours after stroke and until day 10, respectively), as they are the first indicators of stroke damage. We searched the PubMed data base for articles that investigated the interaction between clinical variables or genetic factors and acute or subacute stroke outcome. A total of 61 studies were finally included in this review. Regarding the data collected, the variables consistently associated with acute stroke outcome are: glucose levels, blood pressure, presence of atrial fibrillation, prior statin treatment, stroke severity, type of acute treatment performed, severe neurological complications, leukocyte levels, and genetic risk factors. Further research and international efforts are required in this field, which should include genome-wide association studies.

Increased circulating endothelial progenitor cells and improved short-term outcomes in acute non-cardioembolic stroke after hyperbaric oxygen therapy

Background

Acute ischemic stroke is a leading cause of mortality and long-term disability, and profiles of endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) reflect the degree of endothelial impairment. This study tested the hypothesis that hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT) both improves the clinical short-term outcomes and increases the number of circulating EPCs and antioxidant capacity.

Methods

The numbers of circulating EPCs [CD133⁺/CD34⁺ (%), KDR⁺/CD34⁺ (%)], biomarkers for oxidative stress (thiols and thiobarbituric acid-reactive substances), and clinical scores (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS], Barthel index [BI], and modified Rankin Scale [MRS]) were prospectively evaluated in 25 patients with acute non-cardioembolic stroke under HBOT at two time points (pre- and post-HBOT). The biomarkers and clinical scores were compared with those of 25 age- and sex-matched disease controls.

Results

The numbers of KDR⁺/CD34⁺ (%) in the HBOT group following HBOT increased significantly, whereas the numbers of CD133⁺/CD34⁺ (%) also showed a tendency to increase without statistical significance. The mean high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels showed significant decrease post-HBOT follow-up in the HBOT group. The changes in KDR⁺/CD34⁺EPC (%) numbers were positively correlated with changes in clinical outcomes scores (BI, NIHSS, and MRS) in the HBOT group.

Conclusions

Based on the results of our study, HBOT can both improve short-term clinical outcomes and increase the number of circulating EPCs in patients with acute non-cardioembolic stroke.