A simplified scoring system for the prediction of pancreatoduodenectomy's complications: An observational study

New score for prediction of morbidity in patients undergoing open pancreaticoduodenectomy

Objective

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is commonly used to predict the risk of postoperative complications in general surgery. However, use of the POSSUM is not absolutely suitable for open pancreaticoduodenectomy (OPD), which has unique complications such as pancreatic fistula formation. This study was performed to establish a new risk score for assessing the incidence of postoperative complications of OPD.

Methods

This retrospective case-control study involved 159 patients who underwent standard OPD from 2 January 2017 to 1 February 2019. The risk factors for post-OPD complications were statistically investigated, and a risk score model was established by multivariate logistic regression.

Results

Among all 159 patients, 72 (42.28%) developed complications. A scoring system was developed based on the following five independent variables: sodium concentration of <141.20 mmol/L, white blood cell count of >6.35 × 10⁹/L, pancreatic texture grade, body mass index of >25.06 kg/m², and basic respiratory diseases. Our risk score model demonstrated better discriminating power, prediction power, and prediction probability than the POSSUM model in the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

Conclusion

This novel risk score may help to predict postoperative complications after OPD with higher accuracy than the POSSUM system.

Preoperative Predictors for 90-Day Mortality after Pancreaticoduodenectomy in Patients with Adenocarcinoma of the Ampulla of Vater: A Single-Centre Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

The standard treatment for ampullary adenocarcinoma is pancreaticoduodenectomy. Identification of preoperative risk factors might help the clinician to select patients fit for resection and potentially decrease morbidity and mortality after PD. We conducted a cohort study to determine the preoperative factors related to 90-day severe morbidity and mortality after PD.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study in patients with a diagnosis of ampullary adenocarcinoma who underwent an open PD between January 2010 and December 2019 at our tertiary centre.

Results

Independent preoperative predictors of mortality were the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 3 (OR: 21.7; CI 95: 2.1–226.9; p=0.01) and the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <90 mL/min/1.73 m² (OR: 17.7; CI 95: 1.8–172.6; p=0.013). The eGFR <90 mL/min/1.73 m² (OR = 6.6; CI 95: 1.9–23.4; p=0.003) and prothrombin time (OR = 1.5; CI 95; 1.1–2.1; p=0.005) were independent predictors for severe morbidity.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that baseline renal function measured by the eGFR and liver function categorized with the ALBI grading are predictors of severe morbidity and mortality. Thus, they should be considered when selecting patients for PD or the use of neoadjuvant treatments. Further research is warranted.