A novel scoring system predicting survival benefits of palliative primary tumor resection for patients with unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer: A retrospective cohort study protocol

Predicting surgical benefit of primary tumor resection in patients with stage IV colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

There exists continuous controversy regarding the benefit of primary tumor resection (PTR) for stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Little is known about how to predict the patients' benefit from PTR. This study aimed to develop a tool for surgical benefit prediction.

METHODS

Stage IV CRC patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database were included. Patients receiving PTR who survived longer than the median cancer-specific survival (CSS) time of those who did not undergo PTR were considered to benefit from surgery. Logistic regression analysis identified prognostic factors influencing surgical benefit, based on which a nomogram was constructed. The data of patients who underwent PTR from our institution was used for external validation. A user-friendly webserver was then built for convenient clinical use.

RESULTS

The median CSS of the PTR group was 23 months, significantly longer than that of the non-PTR group (7 months, P < 0.001). In the PTR group, 23.3% of patients did not benefit from surgery. Logistic regression analysis identified age, marital status, tumor location, CEA level, chemotherapy, metastasectomy, tumor size, tumor deposits, number of examined lymph nodes, N stage, histological grade and number of distant metastases as independently associated with surgical benefit. The established prognostic nomogram demonstrated satisfactory performance in both the internal and external validation.

CONCLUSION

PTR was associated with prolonged CSS in stage IV CRC. The proposed nomogram could be used as an evidenced-based platform for risk-to-benefit assessment to select appropriate patients for undergoing PTR.

Predicting Surgical Benefit for Primary Tumor Resection in Patients with Stage IV Colorectal Cancer.. [DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2031087/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

Purpose There exists continuous controversy regarding the effect of primary tumor resection (PTR) for stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Little is known about how to predict the patients’ survival benefit from PTR. This study aimed to develop a tool for surgical benefit prediction. Methods Stage IV CRC patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database were included. After propensity score matching, patients receiving PTR that survived longer than the median cancer-specific survival (CSS) time of those who did not undergo PTR were considered to benefit from surgery. Logistic regression analysis identified prognostic factors influencing the surgical benefit, based on which a nomogram was constructed. A user-friendly webserver was then built for convenient clinical use. The predictive model was assessed using Harrell’s concordance index, calibration plot, receiver operative curve and decision curve analysis. Results The median CSS of the PTR group was 23 months, which was significantly longer than the non-PTR group (12 months, P < 0.001). In the PTR group, 32.9% of patients did not benefit from surgery. Logistic regression analysis identified age, tumor location, CEA level, histological grade, number of distant metastasis, and preoperative chemotherapy independently associated with surgical benefit. The established prognostic nomogram demonstrated satisfactory performance. Conclusion PTR was associated with prolonged survival in stage IV CRC. The proposed nomogram could be used as a risk-to-benefit assessment evidenced-based platform for selecting appropriate patients to undergo PTR.

Lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio combined with CA19-9 for predicting postoperative recurrence of colorectal cancer in patients with diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the significance of lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) combined with carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 for predicting postoperative recurrence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in patients with type II diabetes.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of 106 postoperative patients with stage II-III CRC and with type II diabetes. Their clinical indexes such as LMR and CA19-9 were collected, and the patients were followed up for 5 years.

RESULTS

The CA19-9 level was 119.7 U/ml at baseline in the relapsed group, while this was 24.81 U/ml in non-relapsed group (p = 0.001). On the contrary, the LMR level was 5.10 and 2.57 for non-relapsed and relapsed group (p < 0.001), respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival curves stratified by CA19-9 and LMR suggested that patients with lower CA19-9 had higher survival probability (p < 0.001), while patients with high LMR level had higher survival probability (p < 0.001). The multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis with CA19-9 and LMR indicated that although the baseline CA19-9 is significantly associated with increasing risk of disease recurrence, the HR (HR = 1.0, 95% CI 1.00-1.01) was small and close to 1, whereas the high baseline LMR (HR = 0.44, 95% CI 0.32-0.61) was associated with decrease in disease recurrence. Model with continuous CA19-9 and LMR was able to better predict (AUC 73.17%) the disease recurrence.

CONCLUSION

LMR combined with CA19-9 may become a new index for predicting postoperative recurrence of CRC in patients with diabetes.

Individualized prediction of survival benefit from primary tumor resection for patients with unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer

Background

The impact of primary tumor resection (PTR) on the prognosis of unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients remains debatable. We aimed to develop several prognostic nomograms which could be useful in predicting whether patients might benefit from PTR or not.

Methods

Patients diagnosed as mCRC without resected metastasis were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database and randomly assigned into two groups: a training cohort (6369 patients) and a validation cohort (2774 patients). Univariate and multivariable Cox analyses were performed to identify the independent predictors and construct nomograms that could independently predict the overall survival (OS) of unresectable mCRC patients in PTR and non-PTR groups, respectively. The performance of these nomograms was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Based on the result of univariate and multivariable Cox analyses, two nomograms were respectively constructed to predict the 1-year OS rates of unresectable mCRC patients when receiving PTR and not. The first one included age, gender, tumor grade, proximal colon, N stage, CEA, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, histology type, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, and bone metastasis. The second nomogram included age, race, tumor grade, primary site, CEA, chemotherapy, brain metastasis, and bone metastasis. These nomograms showed favorable sensitivity with the C-index range of 0.700–0.725. The calibration curves and DCAs also exhibited adequate fit and ideal net benefits in prognosis prediction and clinical application.

Conclusions

These practical prognosis nomograms could assist clinicians in making appropriate treatment decisions to effectively manage the disease.