A nomogram for estimating the probability of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in a Chinese population: A retrospective cohort study

Development and validation of a nomogram for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in Western Xinjiang, China

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to establish a simple, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) screening model using readily available variables to identify high-risk individuals in Western Xinjiang, China.

METHODS

A total of 40 033 patients from the National Health Examination were divided into a training group (70%) and a validation group (30%). Univariate regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator models optimized feature selection, while a multivariate logistic regression analysis constructed the prediction model. The model's performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and its clinical utility was assessed through decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

The nomogram assessed NAFLD risk based on factors such as sex, age, diastolic blood pressure, waist circumference, BMI, fasting plasma glucose, alanine aminotransferase, platelet count, total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.829 for men and 0.859 for women in the development group, and 0.817 for men and 0.865 for women in the validation group. The decision curve analysis confirmed the nomogram's clinical usefulness, with consistent findings in the validation set.

CONCLUSION

A user-friendly nomogram prediction model for NAFLD risk was successfully developed and validated for Western Xinjiang, China.

Total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein ratio and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in a population with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is characterized by hypertriglyceridemia, increased low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, and reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) particles. Previous studies have shown that the total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TC/HDL-C) was superior to other lipid metabolism biomarkers for predicting NAFLD risk and could be a new indicator of NAFLD. However, the association between TC/HDL-C and NAFLD in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) has not yet been determined.

AIM

To investigate the association between TC/HDL-C and NAFLD in a population with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

METHODS

In this study, 183 HBV-infected patients were enrolled. All participants underwent blood chemistry examinations and abdominal ultrasound. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models, curve fitting analysis, and threshold calculation were used to assess the relationship between TC/HDL-C and NAFLD.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of NAFLD was 17.49% (n = 32) in the 183 CHB participants. The TC/HDL-C of non-NAFLD and NAFLD patients were 3.83 ± 0.75 and 4.44 ± 0.77, respectively (P < 0.01). Logistic regression analysis showed that TC/HDL-C was not associated with NAFLD after adjusting for other pertinent clinical variables. However, at an optimal cutoff point of 4.9, a non-linear correlation between TC/HDL-C and NAFLD was detected. The effect size of the left and right sides of the inflection point were 5.4 (95% confidence interval: 2.3-12.6, P < 0.01) and 0.5 (95% confidence interval: 0.1-2.2, P = 0.39), respectively. On the left side of the inflection point, TC/HDL-C was positively associated with NAFLD. However, no significant association was observed on the right side of the inflection point.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated a non-linear correlation between TC/HDL-C and NAFLD in a population with CHB. TC/HDL-C was positively associated with NAFLD when TC/HDL-C was less than 4.9 but not when TC/HDL-C was more than 4.9.