A nomogram incorporated lifestyle indicators for predicting nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Construction and external validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of esophageal stricture after endoscopic submucosal dissection: a multicenter case-control study

Esophageal stricture is a common complication after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for superficial esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions, we intend to investigate the independent risk factors of esophageal stricture after ESD by adding the data of included living habits, established a nomogram model to predict the risk of esophageal stricture, and verified it by external data. The clinical data and living habits of patients with early esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions who underwent ESD in the Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College and Langzhong People's Hospital from March 2017 to August 2021 were retrospectively collected. The data collected from the two hospitals were used as the development group (n = 256) and the validation group (n = 105), respectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine independent risk factors for esophageal stricture after ESD and establish a nomogram model for the development group. The prediction performance of the nomogram model is internally and externally verified by calculating C-Index and plotting the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and calibration curve, respectively. The results showed that Age, drinking water temperature, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, the extent of esophageal mucosal defect, longitudinal diameter of resected mucosa, and depth of tissue invasion (P < 0.05) were independent risk factors for esophageal stricture after ESD. The C-Index of the development group and validation group was 0.925 and 0.861, respectively. The ROC curve and area under the curve (AUC) of the two groups suggested that the discrimination and prediction performance of the model were good. The two groups of calibration curves are consistent and almost overlap with the ideal calibration curve, indicating that the predicted results of this model are in good agreement with the actual observed results. In conclusion, this nomogram model has a high accuracy for predicting the risk of esophageal stricture after ESD, providing a theoretical basis for reducing or avoiding esophageal stricture and guiding clinical practice.

A novel prognostic nomogram for older patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases (AoCLD): a nationwide, multicentre, prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

the incidence of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) is increasing.

OBJECTIVE

to investigate the clinical features and risk factors of AoCLD and construct an effective prognostic nomogram model for older patients with AoCLD.

METHODS

data from 3,970 patients included in the CATCH-LIFE study were used, including 2,600 and 1,370 patients in the training and validation sets, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictive risk factors in older individuals, and an easy-to-use nomogram was established. Performance was assessed using area under the curve, calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

of the 3,949 patients with AoCLD, 809 were older with a higher proportion of autoimmune-related abnormalities, hepatitis C viral infection and schistosomiasis. In the older patient group, the incidence of cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), infection, ascites and gastrointestinal bleeding; neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), aspartate-to-alanine transaminase ratio (AST/ALT), creatinine and blood urea nitrogen levels were higher, whereas incidence of acute-on-chronic liver failure, white blood cell, platelet and haemoglobin levels; albumin, total bilirubin (TB), AST and ALT levels; international normalised ratio (INR), estimated glomerular filtration rate and blood potassium levels were lower than in the younger group. The final nomogram was developed based on the multivariate Cox analysis in training cohort using six risk factors: ascites, HE grades, NLR, TB, INR and AST/ALT. Liver transplantation-free mortality predictions were comparable between the training and validation sets. DCA showed higher net benefit for the nomograph than the treat-all or treat-none strategies, with wider threshold probabilities ranges.

CONCLUSIONS

our analysis will assist clinical predictions and prognoses in older patients with AoCLD.

Evaluated Glomerular Filtration Rate Is Associated With Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A 5-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study in Chinese Non-obese People

Objective

Evidence regarding the association between evaluated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is still limited. On that account, the purpose of our research is to survey the link of evaluated eGFR on NAFLD.

Methods

This study is a retrospective cohort study. Which consecutively and non-selectively collected a total of 16,138 non-obese participants in a Chinese hospital from January 2010 to December 2014. We then used the Cox proportional-hazards regression model to explore the relationship between baseline eGFR and NAFLD risk. A Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting (the cubic spline smoothing) was used to identify the non-linear relationship between eGFR and NAFLD. Additionally, we also performed a series of sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses. Data had been uploaded to the DATADRYAD website.

Results

The mean age of the included individuals was 43.21 ± 14.95 years old, and 8,467 (52.47%) were male. The mean baseline eGFR was 98.83 ± 22.80 mL/min per 1.73m2. During a median follow-up time of 35.8 months, 2,317 (14.36%) people experienced NAFLD. After adjusting covariates, the results showed that eGFR was negatively associated with incident NAFLD (HR = 0.983, 95%CI: 0.980, 0.985). There was also a non-linear relationship between eGFR and NAFLD, and the inflection point of eGFR was 103.489 mL/min per 1.73 m2. The effect sizes (HR) on the left and right sides of the inflection point were 0.988 (0.984, 0.991) and 0.971 (0.963, 0.979), respectively. And the sensitive analysis demonstrated the robustness of our results. Subgroup analysis showed that eGFR was more strongly associated with incident NAFLD in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) &lt; 90 mmHg, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≤ 6.1 mmol/L, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) &lt; 1 mmol/L, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ≥ 40 U/L participants. In contrast, the weaker association was probed in those with DBP ≥ 90 mmHg, ALT &lt; 40 U/L, FPG &gt; 6.1 mmol/L, and HDL-c ≥ 1 mmol/L.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates a negative and non-linear association between eGFR and incident NAFLD in the Chinese non-obese population. eGFR is strongly related to NAFLD when eGFR is above 103 mL/min per 1.73 m2. From a therapeutic perspective, it makes sense to maintain eGFR levels within the inflection point to 130 mL/min/1.73 m2.

Effect of berberine and bicyclol on Chinese patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

To compare the effect of berberine and bicyclol on patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

Chinese non-alcoholic and non-viral hepatitis patients with a hepatic lipid content > 13% and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease activity score (NAS) ≥ 2 were treated with 500 mg berberine thrice daily, together with dietary modification (low-fat diet) and Tai Chi exercise for 4 months (BT cohort; n = 112), or 25 mg bicyclol thrice daily plus dietary modification and Tai Chi exercise for 4 months (CT cohort, n = 145), or dietary modification and Tai Chi exercise for 4 months (DT cohort, n = 128).

RESULTS

Patients in the BT and the CT cohorts had improved anthropometric measurements (weight, height, body mass index, and waist-to-hip ratio), biochemical parameters (blood sugar, lipid profile, and liver functions tests), liver/spleen computed tomography findings, and liver biopsy results after 4 months of intervention (p < 0.05 for all). Bicyclol decreased the NAS in the CT cohort to a significantly greater degree than berberine in the BT cohort (p < 0.0001, q = 3.879). Patients in the DT cohort had reduced body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio (p < 0.05 for both). During the 4-month intervention, patients in the BT cohort had abdominal distension, mild diarrhea, constipation, nausea, and dyspepsia; patients in the CT cohort had dizziness and abdominal distension.

CONCLUSIONS

Berberine or bicyclol plus dietary modification and Tai Chi exercise could control NAFLD without serious adverse effects. Dietary modification and Tai Chi exercise alone for 4 months are insufficient for the management of NAFLD. It is possible to reduce body weight by administering berberine or bicyclol.